Heavy Rainfall (Orange) Warning for Kerry, Cork, Tipp & Waterford - Tues 23 Feb

Meteorite58 · 21-02-2021 12:44pm #1

Thought it might be worth putting up a dedicated thread for the Windy and very wet spell coming up. The strongest winds will be from late Monday into early Tuesday morning accompanied by heavy rainfall. Rainfall, heavy at times will continue with blustery winds through Tuesday and rain fall set to continue in parts into Weds.

Windy overnight Mon into Tues, high end yellow warning but close enough to an Orange warning perhaps. Main issue though looks to be rainfall amounts, yellow warnings and possibly meeting Orange warning criteria in the SW, and S .Could get quite a large area getting over 50 mm in 24 hrs and rain set to continue into Weds . This on top of saturated ground and full lakes and rivers.

Meteorite58 · 21-02-2021 12:57pm

What the other models are showing atm. ARPEGE and GFS looks fairly strong up along Atlantic counties early Tuesday morning.

Meteorite58 · 21-02-2021 1:12pm

Big sea swell along Western coasts around midweek from the Storm out in the Atlantic.

Long trailing front being drawn up from the over the country from the S/ SW on a moist warm humid airflow. Looks like getting up to 14C or locally higher on Tuesday.

munsterlegend · 21-02-2021 1:17pm

And a warning from Met Eireann.

Status Yellow - Rainfall warning for Carlow, Kilkenny, Wexford, Munster, Connacht

Met Éireann Weather Warning

Heavy rain on Monday night and Tuesday coupled with strong southerly winds. Some river and localised surface flooding possible. Rainfall totals of 30 to 50mm, higher in mountainous regions.

Valid: 00:00 Tuesday 23/02/2021 to 00:00 Wednesday 24/02/2021

Issued: 11:36 Sunday 21/02/2021

windows 7 home premium · 21-02-2021 1:48pm

It's always the south east that suffers most from these storms. We are overdue a long dry spell here, the ground has been saturated for the last 8 months.

JCX BXC · 21-02-2021 1:49pm

windows 7 home premium wrote: »

It's always the south east that suffers most from these storms. We are overdue a long dry spell here, the ground has been saturated for the last 8 months.

Howso?

windows 7 home premium · 21-02-2021 1:53pm

JCX BXC wrote: »

Howso?

idk, it's just how things are usually.

giveitholly · 21-02-2021 1:56pm

windows 7 home premium wrote: »

It's always the south east that suffers most from these storms. We are overdue a long dry spell here, the ground has been saturated for the last 8 months.

Would it not be the North West that suffers the most from storms?

JCX BXC · 21-02-2021 2:24pm

windows 7 home premium wrote: »

idk, it's just how things are usually.

Okay, sure but is it just purely anecdotal?

The West Coast is battered much worse by storms, I've spent time in Waterford and they just don't hit the same as they hit here in West Clare.

windows 7 home premium · 21-02-2021 2:37pm

I know, I am just tired of storms and wind and rain at this stage and I just want some warm sunny weather which we had very little of last summer. Sick of constant wind and rain.

JCX BXC · 21-02-2021 3:07pm

windows 7 home premium wrote: »

I know, I am just tired of storms and wind and rain at this stage and I just want some warm sunny weather which we had very little of last summer. Sick of constant wind and rain.

Hopefully the high pressure on FI charts (meaning more then 120 hours away), will bring calm sunny weather. Won't be particularly warm though!

Oscar Bravo · 21-02-2021 3:44pm

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/1363498687574458370?s=19

21-02-2021 4:12pm

windows 7 home premium wrote: »

It's always the south east that suffers most from these storms. We are overdue a long dry spell here, the ground has been saturated for the last 8 months.

To be fair much of connaught might have double the rainfall of the southeast

Oscar Bravo · 21-02-2021 4:34pm

Status Yellow - Wind warning for Carlow, Kilkenny, Wexford, Munster, Donegal, Galway, Mayo, Sligo

Southerly winds will reach mean wind speeds of 50 to 65km/h, with gusts of 90 to 110km/h, possibly higher on exposed coasts. Where winds are onshore there is a risk of coastal flooding.

Valid: 21:00 Monday 22/02/2021 to 06:00 Tuesday 23/02/2021

Issued: 14:46 Sunday 21/02/2021

Oneiric 3 · 21-02-2021 10:12pm

EPS (mean of all of the ECMWF runs) rainfall totals out to Wed midnight:

Munster / S. Leinster more favoured to bare the brunt.

Villain · 21-02-2021 10:41pm

I don’t often question the Met Éireann warnings but this looks nasty and potential for some serious flooding!

Cork2021 · 21-02-2021 10:49pm

Villain wrote: »

I don’t often question the Met Éireann warnings but this looks nasty and potential for some serious flooding!

Any thunderstorms going to be associated with this? It does look nasty to be honest, flooding in all
Of cork and Kerry is a real possibility. The likes of Bantry and Kenmare have been through the mill a lot later as has Cork City Centre

SouthWesterly · 21-02-2021 10:54pm

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Thought it might be worth putting up a dedicated thread for the Windy and very wet spell coming up. The strongest winds will be from late Monday into early Tuesday morning accompanied by heavy rainfall. Rainfall, heavy at times will continue with blustery winds through Tuesday and rain fall set to continue in parts into Weds.

Windy overnight Mon into Tues, high end yellow warning but close enough to an Orange warning perhaps. Main issue though looks to be rainfall amounts, yellow warnings and possibly meeting Orange warning criteria in the SW, and S .Could get quite a large area getting over 50 mm in 24 hrs and rain set to continue into Weds . This on top of saturated ground and full lakes and rivers.
]

Looking at that I'm glad I got over to Barrow today. Beautiful after hardly a breeze

munsterlegend · 21-02-2021 10:58pm

Villain wrote: »

I don’t often question the Met Éireann warnings but this looks nasty and potential for some serious flooding!

Still time to upgrade tomorrow if necessary.

Cork2021 · 21-02-2021 11:06pm

munsterlegend wrote: »

Still time to upgrade tomorrow if necessary.

Looking at the blackwater since Friday, obviously it broke its banks and spilled onto park road in Mallow, but it’s seriously fast moving and full now, you’ve so much water flowing into it, Kanturk rivers heaving, Funcheon heaving as well

Meteorite58 · 21-02-2021 11:14pm

munsterlegend wrote: »

Still time to upgrade tomorrow if necessary.

Gerry Murphy after the news emphasized the strong winds and significant gusts and threats of flooding in Munster and said to keep an eye on warnings for updates.

Meteorite58 · 21-02-2021 11:23pm

Latest ICON 18Z has eased off the winds a fair bit, UKMO not a great chart but showing stronger winds and high rainfall totals. There will be some water coming off the mountains, I agree places like Kenmare would need to be on high alert.

aisling86 · 21-02-2021 11:25pm

The water on the macroom side of the dam is seriously high this evening with this amount of rain to come!

Meteorite58 · 21-02-2021 11:29pm

Latest GFS quite strong around the coasts, not as big rainfall totals but would be looking towards the more Hi Res models from here.

Meteorite58 · 21-02-2021 11:56pm

ARPEGE 18Z still showing some strong winds around the coasts, especially the SW

Approx 24 hrs of rainfall below apart from a few mm extra perhaps.

windows 7 home premium · 22-02-2021 12:48am

I'm predicting a lot of serious flooding with this event, rivers are already very high and many fields waterlogged. A dry spell will be welcome, hopefully.

Villain · 22-02-2021 9:27am

Yep this is going to show the farce that is rainfall warnings when we don't have a flood warning system up and running fully yet. A yellow warning with up to 100mm coming and many parts of the Southwest going to flood!

This needs attention quickly!

adocholiday · 22-02-2021 9:32am

The windy app has downgraded the winds for the Wicklow coast since last night with the GFS, ECM and Arome models all down. Icon keeps them stronger. Rainfall totals looking like about 40mm for the Wicklow coast too again according to Windy's representation of the model data.

DOCARCH · 22-02-2021 11:11am

Status Orange - Rainfall warning for Cork, Kerry, Waterford

Met Éireann Weather Warning

Very heavy rain on Monday night and Tuesday will likely cause further river flooding and surface water flooding. Rainfall totals of 50 to 80mm, higher in mountainous regions.

Valid: 19:00 Monday 22/02/2021 to 21:00 Tuesday 23/02/2021

Issued: 10:05 Monday 22/02/2021

Lip Out · 22-02-2021 11:20am

adocholiday wrote: »

The windy app has downgraded the winds for the Wicklow coast since last night with the GFS, ECM and Arome models all down. Icon keeps them stronger. Rainfall totals looking like about 40mm for the Wicklow coast too again according to Windy's representation of the model data.

Strange that Wicklow is not included in the yellow warning. Looks like it will be wet, especially so in the afternoon. Ground very saturated as it is.

Villain · 22-02-2021 11:31am

Tipperary added now too

Oneiric 3 · 22-02-2021 11:37am

Lip Out wrote: »

Strange that Wicklow is not included in the yellow warning. Looks like it will be wet, especially so in the afternoon. Ground very saturated as it is.

Those county-centric warnings have a habit of changing rapidly. I think Wicklow will included in time.

DOCARCH · 22-02-2021 12:00pm

Villain wrote: »

Tipperary added now too

That was a quick edit/addition!

Status Orange - Rainfall warning for Cork, Kerry, Tipperary, Waterford

Met Éireann Weather Warning

Very heavy rain on Monday night and Tuesday will likely cause further river flooding and surface water flooding. Rainfall totals of 50 to 80mm, higher in mountainous regions.

Valid: 19:00 Monday 22/02/2021 to 21:00 Tuesday 23/02/2021

Issued: 10:21 Monday 22/02/2021

Storm 10 · 22-02-2021 12:09pm

Do any of you think other areas will be added along the West Coast my garden is water logged

pauldry · 22-02-2021 12:26pm

Are we running a just for fun rainfall prediction contest?

E.g 1. Cork 62.5mm
2. Roches Pt 56mm
3. Valentia 50mm

igCorcaigh · 22-02-2021 1:34pm

No flood warning from Cork City Council yet, I expect there will be at some point.

Will tides contribute anything to this?

SeaFields · 22-02-2021 1:43pm

Those potential rainfall totals are serious. I had to do some (necessary) travel over the weekend. The land is underwater in many places down in the south west and rivers still up after last week's rain. Hopefully no serious flooding occurs. People have enough to be dealing with at the moment

dmc17 · 22-02-2021 2:13pm

igCorcaigh wrote: »

No flood warning from Cork City Council yet, I expect there will be at some point.

Will tides contribute anything to this?

Tides are not too big at the moment so shouldn't add to it. The higher tides will be this coming weekend with the full moon.

pad199207 · 22-02-2021 3:04pm

Status Yellow - Rainfall warning for Leinster, Cavan, Monaghan, Clare, Limerick, Connacht

Met Éireann Weather Warning

Heavy rain on Monday night and Tuesday will lead to some river flooding and localised surface flooding. Rainfall totals of 30 to 50mm, higher in mountainous regions.

Valid: 21:00 Monday 22/02/2021 to 21:00 Tuesday 23/02/2021

Issued: 10:25 Monday 22/02/2021

Oscar Bravo · 22-02-2021 3:09pm

TAF for Cork airport shows some nasty conditions : light rain from 7pm,moderate rain from 10pm,heavy rain from 11pm coupled with a southerly wind gusting up to 47 knots

TAF EICK 221100Z 2212/2312 18015KT 9999 BKN016 TEMPO 2212/2218 18018G28KT
BECMG 2219/2221 18025G40KT 5000 -RA BKN010 OVC015
BECMG 2222/2224 3000 RA BKN005 TEMPO 2223/2305 17030G47KT 1200 +RA BKN003
BECMG 2305/2307 1200 -RA
PROB40 TEMPO 2305/2312 0500 RA FG OVC001

igCorcaigh · 22-02-2021 3:12pm

It's the duration of the rainfall that could be a problem too.

Continuous rainfall from tonight and all day tomorrow.

Tyrone212 · 22-02-2021 3:18pm

Met office expect gusts of 50 to 60mph and up to 70mph on the East Coast.

Rain wise 15 to 30mm widely with 40 to 50m in some locations especially in the south with up to 60mm on the Mourne mountains.

A dirty day.

RobertKK · 22-02-2021 3:36pm

I see the council here in Kilkenny are out working in the countryside, with a digger and some other men making sure the drains are clear.

pauldry · 22-02-2021 3:44pm

yr.no has 48mm rainfall for cork city tomorrow

igCorcaigh · 22-02-2021 4:44pm

I've yet to receive a warning text message from Cork City Council.

https://twitter.com/echolivecork/status/1363875076865626112?s=19

igCorcaigh · 22-02-2021 4:47pm

Oh, there we go:

Cork City Council would like to advise residents, communities and business of a very serious imminent weather event which will affect all parts of the city. Met Eireann have issued an orange rainfall warning from 7pm tonight, Mon February 22, which will continue until Tue, February 23, tomorrow night.
Rainfall of up to 80mm is expected. This will likely cause significant surface water or ponding and will lead to hazardous driving conditions tonight and tomorrow.
Many rivers across the city will likely burst their banks leading to localised flooding. We are advising people who live in areas all across the city prone to river flooding to take active measures to protect their property. Sandbags and gel bags are available at our Anglesea Terrace Depot and Tramore Valley Park Civic Amenity Site up to 7pm tonight (Monday) for your protection.
If you need emergency help, please contact Cork City Council's Customer Service Unit at 021 4924000 from 9am to 5pm or our out of hours emergency number 021 4966512.

SleetAndSnow · 22-02-2021 5:03pm

Rain starting to show on the west coast now. Make the most the dry weather!

leahyl · 22-02-2021 5:18pm

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

Rain starting to show on the west coast now. Make the most the dry weather!

Have to get out for a walk before it arrives! Hopefully should be ok up to 7 or so.

cml387 · 22-02-2021 5:25pm

The highest river level reading in Clonmel (since they started measuring anyway) was 4 metres above datum, on 30 Dec 2015.It peaked at just over 3.2 on Saturday evening and is now showing at just above 2. God knows what this next wet spell will do, because at 4 metres it was at the top of the additional flood gates at a spot known as the Gashouse bridge.

igCorcaigh · 22-02-2021 5:29pm

pauldry wrote: »

yr.no has 48mm rainfall for cork city tomorrow

And Cork City Council mention up to 80mm.

How does that compare with past events? I have no grasp of rainfall figures.

mcburns07 · 22-02-2021 5:47pm

igCorcaigh wrote: »

And Cork City Council mention up to 80mm.

How does that compare with past events? I have no grasp of rainfall figures.

A very wet day would typically amount to about 20-30mm in Cork. Pretty bad even if we "only" get 50mm or so. Add to the already waterlogged ground and overflowing rivers and we have a bit of a problem on our hands over the next few days.....

Heavy Rainfall (Orange) Warning for Kerry, Cork, Tipp & Waterford - Tues 23 Feb

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