Strong Winds/Severe Gusts January 14/15th 2015

Kermit.de.frog · 11-01-2015 6:38am #1

Latest guidance suggest sharp cyclogenesis or rapid deepening and tightening of the pressure gradient in transition off the west coast and the potential for storm gusts along with strong average wind speeds. It is still early to speculate numerically the actual speed that can be expected but certainly potentially damaging to structures. The west is most vulnerable but should it occur as progged it is a nationwide problem all be it to varying and dynamic extents.

Warnings will almost certainly be issued on Monday.

Keep up to date as this is a developing situation and strength and intensity are not nailed on just yet. The track has cross model agreement.

00z ECM is slightly less dramatic because it does not deepen the LP so much with damaging winds for the southwest but not as intense elsewhere - still an upgrade on the 12z.

ECM1-96.GIF?11-12

sparrowcar · 11-01-2015 7:23am

And so it begins...

Tactical · 11-01-2015 8:09am

Tickets at the ready for the roller coaster.

Oh goody

maquiladora · 11-01-2015 8:21am

A pretty big difference between the models still.

ECM has a 964mb low with some strong winds but mainly confined to the south of the country.

GEM has a strong 950mb low crossing the country.

GFS is similiar.

GFSP is the strongest of the models with a 945mb low and very strong winds.

ECM does best in these scenarios, but there's still enough time for significant changes either way.

Strangegravy · 11-01-2015 9:02am

We've done well so far this year to escape all the crazy lows that have passed well to the north of Ireland, but this one does look like it'll be a lot further south, going on current predictions.

I'm wondering will my new garden fence finally get a decent test here in Limerick, after last February's storm destroyed the old one. It looks like a similar trajectory on some of the models. Will be watching this closely.

ninebeanrows · 11-01-2015 9:34am

EC places gusts >90mph along south coast midnight Wednesday

maquiladora · 11-01-2015 9:42am

Still a large variety of outcomes on the ECM postage stamps. Most have a low in the 960-965mb range though there is a cluster with deeper lows similar to the GFS and GEM.

maquiladora · 11-01-2015 11:04am

06Z GFS has pushed the low further south. Strong winds over the southern half of the country on this run.

ninebeanrows · 11-01-2015 11:06am

Theme for peak intensity to be just before pushing making landfall. Still looks likely to be a very windy day but with the low filling as it approaches.

downwiththatsor · 11-01-2015 11:06am

maquiladora wrote: »

06Z GFS has pushed the low further south. Strong winds over the southern half of the country on this run.

GFSP a little further North?

maquiladora · 11-01-2015 11:14am

downwiththatsor wrote: »

GFSP a little further North?

Not much difference in position. Strongest winds are again into the southwest on the GFSP. A bit stronger than the GFS.

Very stormy runs, for southern parts especially. But with a 20mb difference between this and the ECM.... I'm not sure I believe the GFS here.

maquiladora · 11-01-2015 11:44am

legomaniac · 11-01-2015 12:13pm

A rather conservative forecast there by MT. I was expecting at least a low level alert for the strong winds for today and tonight. Wednesday's event is still not set in stone and a good call by him not to make to much of it at this stage.

Harry Palmr · 11-01-2015 12:37pm

Looks like a hide under the table event to me!

mickger844posts · 11-01-2015 12:56pm

For Southern parts who rarely see storms of this intensity this is for sure something we need to keep a close eye on over the next few days. We all know its track will dictate all but currently all the ingredients are there for an event type situation. Interesting model watching ahead.

ninebeanrows · 11-01-2015 1:00pm

Definite trend for a more southerly track on the latest 6z GFS Ensembles

maquiladora · 11-01-2015 1:08pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

Definite trend for a more southerly track on the latest 6z GFS Ensembles

And a trend for it to deepen sooner in the Atlantic.

For some areas, the GFS and GFSP had stronger winds than any of the 20 members.

I smell a downgrade coming. Or at least something less deep and more like the ECM (960-965).

RED L4 0TH · 11-01-2015 1:18pm

From ME's national forecast, outlook section, issued at 11.50. For later Wednesday it says:

With the clearance of the rain the wind will veer southwest again and it will become stormy for a time, especially along western coasts.

AnotherYear · 11-01-2015 1:45pm

Met office also giving support for a Southerly track with this warning issued today
2015-1-14

They expect gusts of 50-60mph quite widely and isolated gusts of up to 75mph on exposed coasts and hills so pretty much a non event for them at least regarding the 50-60mph

Harps · 11-01-2015 1:57pm

Yep just got a warning on my phone for severe gales and an active and squally front for Wednesday in SE England. Plenty of time for changes yet but UKMO agreeing with a southerly track

60-75mph gusts might not sound too severe but SE England isn't used to storms so it'd cause a lot more disruption than a similar event in the west of Ireland.

AnotherYear · 11-01-2015 1:59pm

I agree but 50-60 over the populated areas, 75mph reserved for coasts and hills. Still could change

cyclops999 · 11-01-2015 2:17pm

M E advising to batten down the hatches by midweek

goat2 · 11-01-2015 2:23pm

maquiladora wrote: »

looks like scary stuff, had alot of damage done last year at my place, am dreading another blowdown, but at least i have the dangerous trees cut back

Oneiric 3 · 11-01-2015 3:33pm

The mean of the ECMWF ens have the low slightly further north, and slightly deeper than the op run. Indicating a unnerving bit of spread.

legomaniac · 11-01-2015 4:00pm

I have a distant relative who lives in a very exposed coastal location and he is 84. Good health etc but lives alone so when we get wild storms I bring him up to my place as I'm well in from the sea. Last year the sea was crashing shingle and stones against his gable. He hates a fuss but if this storm is as bad as some forecast then I better evacuate him on Tuesday evening. But I will make that decision Tuesday morning. Many in the locality are talking about a big wind midweek. I missed the Met Eireann farming weather as I was out dosing some ewes. What did they say?

Harry Palmr · 11-01-2015 4:20pm

met.ie latest is not very apocalyptic

During Wednesday the moderate southwest wind will increase fresh to strong southerly bringing a rise in temperatures for a time. Along with the change in wind direction will come a more persistent spell of rain, extending from the west to all areas, turning heavy as the day goes on. The rain will clear to showers again by early night, again wintry in nature at times as temperatures fall to near freezing again overnight. With the clearance of the rain the wind will veer southwest again and it will become stormy for a time, especially along western coasts.

The southwest winds will slowly ease through the course of Thursday and the wintry showers will continue in the west, while it will be mainly fair elsewhere, although initially the strong winds will carry the showers further eastwards.

The further outlook to next weekend is for a continued westerly flow bringing showers on to western coastal counties and temperatures around normal for the time of year.

_Whimsical_ · 11-01-2015 4:50pm

legomaniac wrote: »

I have a distant relative who lives in a very exposed coastal location and he is 84. Good health etc but lives alone so when we get wild storms I bring him up to my place as I'm well in from the sea. Last year the sea was crashing shingle and stones against his gable. He hates a fuss but if this storm is as bad as some forecast then I better evacuate him on Tuesday evening. But I will make that decision Tuesday morning. Many in the locality are talking about a big wind midweek. I missed the Met Eireann farming weather as I was out dosing some ewes. What did they say?

Jean Byrne said "batten down the hatches". She seemed to expecting extremely stormy conditions on coastal areas on Weds evening/night, I think she emphasised the west more than the south though.
That's good of you to keep an eye on your uncle. Be a good idea to give him a shout and make sure he has a working torch anyway as quite a few people on the west coast have been without elec due to the wind in the last week.

maquiladora · 11-01-2015 4:54pm

12Z GFS. 945mb. Intense gradient aimed at the southwest. Slightly further north than the 06Z, otherwise not much difference at first glance.

gfs-0-84.png?12?12

ninebeanrows · 11-01-2015 5:03pm

Looks very stormy for you guys!

ninebeanrows · 11-01-2015 5:05pm

GFS P a little further south but still a very powerful storm

gfs-0-90.png?12

munsterlegend · 11-01-2015 5:06pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

Looks very stormy for you guys!

We must wait for the ECM to be on board! interesting few days weather ahead

Kermit.de.frog · 11-01-2015 5:08pm

The parallel run is not much better unfortunately

EDIT: already posted by WC.

DOCARCH · 11-01-2015 5:09pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

Looks very stormy for you guys!

You guys? Are you no longer one of us? Doesn't matter where you live (now).

maquiladora · 11-01-2015 5:10pm

GFSP is quite similar but squeezes the isobars tighter. This looks like Force 12 winds for the southwest coast here.

The big question now is....what will the ECM do?

ninebeanrows · 11-01-2015 5:12pm

DOCARCH wrote: »

You guys? Are you no longer one of us? Doesn't matter where you live (now).

Well the reason this storm is gonna hammer down on Dublin is because I am not there, otherwise it would be heading up the Channel to London

maquiladora · 11-01-2015 5:14pm

12Z GFS peaks just under 940mb.

Oneiric 3 · 11-01-2015 5:15pm

maquiladora wrote: »

The big question now is....what will the ECM do?

We coolly await.

JanuarySnowstor · 11-01-2015 5:15pm

Looks weaker on the ukmo

ninebeanrows · 11-01-2015 5:18pm

UKM broadly similar, just has filled by its position east of Scotland at 96hrs

UW96-21.GIF?11-17

Kermit.de.frog · 11-01-2015 5:19pm

That's actually an "upgrade" on the 00z UKMO.

elecktras weather bomb · 11-01-2015 5:42pm

can some one post wind barb charts? off the gfs p please. cheers

downwiththatsor · 11-01-2015 5:44pm

Met Eireanns latest 16.38 update doesnt seem too severe for Wed night.

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/

Kermit.de.frog · 11-01-2015 5:44pm

elecktras weather bomb wrote: »

can some one post wind barb charts? off the gfs p please. cheers

M.T. Cranium · 11-01-2015 5:44pm

My suggestion would be to check the ECM and if the storm is set on there as well, give this thread a level 2 handle, and drop that other one to level 1 (which it might or might not warrant). Clearly this storm would even have level 3 potential if the GFS maps are right. That should be a call made by the usual suspects in a conference like we had before the 12 Feb storm, please in general do not post any unilateral level 3 advisories, I think we should put those to a vote of moderators and experienced posters. And they should only go up within 24 hours of any given event even if we have great confidence in the models at 36 hours. Right now I don't even feel 100% sure that any severe storm is coming since there has been a certain amount of ebb and flow in the guidance, but the GFS sometimes does very well with this kind of development and so it certainly seems at this stage that the chances are probably better than 50-50. I always figure that if the GFS looks almost exactly like the GEM then something is up.

maquiladora · 11-01-2015 5:46pm

downwiththatsor wrote: »

Met Eireanns latest 16.38 update doesnt seem too severe for Wed night.

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/

The outlook part of the forecast is only updated once a day usually, in the early morning. The next one will be based on the 12Z ECM. Met Eireann don't use the GFS.

Oneiric 3 · 11-01-2015 5:46pm

Getting into the far reaches of Hi Res territory on the 12z DMI run.

Wednesday 00z:

Really only in its development stage by then so looks a little bit disorganized but seems to be more or less on track with the latest global model outputs.

Kermit.de.frog · 11-01-2015 5:49pm

My opinion is it is still >80hrs out and so no warning is really merited for now but if the North American models are consistent even without the ECM than a level 1 warning would be appropriate tomorrow just as an advisory and something to keep in mind.

Tactical · 11-01-2015 5:53pm

legomaniac wrote: »

I was out dosing some ewes. What did they say?

Baaaaaa?

On a more serious note, be prepared.

I note that some of the surfing websites are predicting heavy swell. For example Inch Beach in Co. Kerry is forecast at 19 foot.

So depending on the exact nature of the costal location one should consider tidal conditions if appropriate. So if the house gets battered by either a wave or debris then plan accordingly for conditions. Better safe than sorry.

Oneiric 3 · 11-01-2015 5:55pm

elecktras weather bomb wrote: »

can some one post wind barb charts? off the gfs p please. cheers

I am not sure if wind barb charts are available for the GFSP EWB, but others may have links.

Edit: sorry, Maq has already posted such.

downonthefarm · 11-01-2015 5:59pm

But ken said it would be snowing this week :-(

M.T. Cranium · 11-01-2015 6:01pm

GEM has the storm pretty much like GFS, not quite as deep but same track and timing (952 mb at 00z Thursday). Those GFS maps would probably produce maximum gusts over 80 knots at exposed locations and 50-60 inland. There would be widespread damage from them. Better hope they are a touch overdone as is sometimes the case with GFS guidance at this range. The UK and GEM maps would be a little easier on the country in general, could say maybe 75 knots at exposed locations and 45-55 inland. Just enough of a difference to make quite a difference in the impact on trees and structures.

Strong Winds/Severe Gusts January 14/15th 2015

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