Lowest minimum temperature recording for Winter 2018/19

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I will put in a guess later, but just FYI, there has been a winter forecast contest for the past ten winters that includes this variable (lowest temperature, but not the date or location though). That will make an appearance at the usual time, late November. But this will be a fun thread to expand on that aspect. Watch for the winter forecast contest thread in about two weeks.

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Just a question, when you say "official met E station" does that include climat stations that report away from the website daily and monthly reporting? For example, I see Kilkenny City among the list of stations chosen, that's not visible on the met E "yesterday's weather" or "monthly data" or "daily data" sites. In the contest thread, we ignore all these stations that report eventually somewhere else (the Bulletin I believe is where they come to light unless somebody here knows about their readings -- this happened with the Dec 2010 cold spell, the coldest reading anywhere was a few degrees lower than the value we used for the contest minimum). For example I think Danno's station at Durrow has been colder than any of the "main" stations in some previous winters.

It's not a big issue, just thought it would be better to clarify the rules before rather than after the fact.

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Hey, I took the liberty of reposting the list of entries in chronological order to make it easier to follow our progress or lack thereof. ... same dates are shown in order of cold to not as cold. It's the same info but I placed it in column format. I browsed through the thread and found two more forecasts to add (Reckless Abandonment and InstaSte). Also I show Danno's late entry with an asterisk.

FORECASTER ____ MIN ___ LOCATION ____ DATE


Reversal ___________ -8.9 ___ Ballyhaise ____ 17 Dec

Rikand ____________-19.1 ___ Mt. Dillon ____ 25 Dec

JCX BXC ____________-7.6 ___ Oak Park ____ 27 Dec

Reckless Abandonment_-12.4___Markree _____ 28 Dec

BLIZZARD7 ________ -18.3 ___ Markree ______31 Dec and/or 11 Jan

Sryanbruen _________ -7.2 ___ Mullingar ______ 1 Jan

Tech85 ____________-10.3 ___ Gurteen _______ 4 Jan

Nacho Libre _________-13.2 ___ Oak Park ______ 5 Jan

Bazlers ____________ -13.5 ___ Mullingar ______ 6 Jan

M.T. Cranium _______ -12.8 ___ Ballyhaise ______7 Jan (or 3, 4 Feb)

Villian (Official site)___ -15.6 ___ Oak Park ______ 9 Jan (-17.7 at his site)
Cirrus Business ______ -11.6 ___ Oak Park ______ 9 Jan
Wine Goddess ________ -6.0 ___ Oak Park ______ 9 Jan

Pauldry ____________ -17.7 ___ Markree _______10 Jan
Beechwoodspark _____-14.7 ___ Oak Park ______ 10 Jan

Tazio ______________ -16.5 ___ Oak Park ______11 Jan
Artane2002 __________ -8.1 ___ Mount Dillon ___11 Jan

Up For Anything ______-15.0 ___ Kilkenny city __ 13 Jan
Esposito _____________ -8.3 ___ Oak Park _____ 13 Jan

Mount Vesuvius ______ -11.4 ___ Oak Park _____ 15 Jan
Larbre ______________ -9.4 ____Mullingar _____ 15 Jan

InstaSte ____________ -10.0 ___ Dunsany _____ 20 Jan

Ultimate Seduction _____-8.8 ___ Casement ____ 21 Jan

Meteorite58 __________ -7.6 ___ Ballyhaise ____ 25 Jan

Rebelbrowser _________ -8.4 ___ Moore Park ___ 29 Jan

Danno* ______________-9.9 ___ Thomastown ___ 3 Feb

Gaoth Laidir __________ -7.5 ___ Ballyhaise ____ 11 Feb

Konman _____________ -7.4 ___ Knock _______ 18 Feb

Conerstonelad ________-13.1 ___ Oak Park _____21 Feb

* submitted after contest closed (but we should check it anyway)

average of 29 fcsts ____-11.4 ___ Oak Park (10) __ 10 Jan (median)

Oak Park chosen by 10/29, Ballyhaise by 4, Markree by 3, Mullingar by 3, Mt. Dillon by 2,
and seven other sites had one pick each.

_________________________________________________________________

Given how March 2018 went, surprised that nobody punted for March.

Lowest so far has been -5.0 before the contest began and -2.8 since it was closed for entries.

Alternate dates should probably be ignored for the contest, I was one who offered them, but will stand or fall on 7 Jan

However, BLIZZARD7 says and/or which implies a possible tie (that can happen).


This is going to be either amazing or a trainwreck survived only by the late January or February people (most of whom went for something fairly typical).