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US Presidential Election 2020

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    #6362
    briany
    Registered Users Posts: 13,543 ✭✭✭✭briany


    Water John wrote: »
    Agree, it's positive for him but push on hard to the line.
    Trump is banking on Florida to go to him, fairly or unfairly with DeSantis in his pocket.

    Ominously enough, the Ohio poll looks to be neck and neck. Ohio's knack of predicting who the president-elect will be has been almost uncanny. According to this article, the state has only disagreed the eventual winner on two occasions since 1896.

    Now, that's not to say that an Ohio win for Trump has an inherent meaning, but its electoral history makes it seem like a microcosm of the overall race. However, this race is anything but typical, but Dems would serve themselves well not to be too complacent and listen to what voters there are saying.


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    #6363
    Water John
    Registered Users Posts: 21,117 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    Three of the four states strongly for Biden in that group will take days to declare. PA, WI, MH all don't start counting mail in ballots until the polls close. That's 46 possible electoral votes for Biden.
    Now you see why Trump wants to legitimise, the result on the night.


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    #6364
    Quin_Dub
    Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 15,000 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    Water John wrote: »
    Three of the four states strongly for Biden in that group will take days to declare. PA, WI, MH all don't start counting mail in ballots until the polls close. That's 46 possible electoral votes for Biden.
    Now you see why Trump wants to legitimise, the result on the night.

    Indeed , but as I mentioned earlier - All of those States have a Democrat Secretary of State , so no result will be called until the all the votes are counted.

    Given that there likely won't be a single precinct with a completed count on Election night I'm not sure if there'll be any "early" indicators out there.

    Having said that , I'm not sure what the rules are surrounding the provision of Interim count results. I'm assuming that there are tally-men or something similar in the count centres as we have here , but not sure how widely their data is shared?


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    #6365
    Brussels Sprout
    Registered Users Posts: 6,520 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    briany wrote: »
    Ominously enough, the Ohio poll looks to be neck and neck. Ohio's knack of predicting who the president-elect will be has been almost uncanny. According to this article, the state has only disagreed the eventual winner on two occasions since 1896.

    Now, that's not to say that an Ohio win for Trump has an inherent meaning, but its electoral history makes it seem like a microcosm of the overall race. However, this race is anything but typical, but Dems would serve themselves well not to be too complacent and listen to what voters there are saying.

    I think it's very likely this time out that Biden will lose Ohio but win the election.

    Ohio has moved quite a bit to the right in recent years while states like Arizona and North Carolina have become more winnable to compensate while at the same time ex-swing states like Virginia and Colorado have become more solidly blue.


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    #6366
    An Ciarraioch
    Registered Users Posts: 5,798 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    Brussels Sprout wrote: »
    I think it's very likely this time out that Biden will lose Ohio but win the election.

    Ohio has moved quite a bit to the right in recent years while states like Arizona and North Carolina have become more winnable to compensate while at the same time ex-swing states like Virginia and Colorado have become more solidly blue.

    Moreover, even Georgia, which had been solidly red for the last 20 years, has become a toss up in this year's state polling.


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    #6367
    Tell me how
    Registered Users Posts: 21,517 ✭✭✭✭Tell me how


    I drove past a Republican Campaign office in a town in New Hampshire a few days ago.

    There was a massive poster out front saying 'Make America Great Again' and a massive poster on the window saying 'Keep America Great Again'. The conflicting message looks very amateurish and it actually looks as if those 'Make America Great Again' signs are leftovers from 4 years ago.


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    #6368
    PopePalpatine
    Registered Users Posts: 11,842 ✭✭✭✭PopePalpatine


    Maybe the pandemic reset the "greatness" levels to the Obama administration? :o


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    #6369
    droidus
    Registered Users Posts: 1,545 ✭✭✭droidus


    Ohio has been touch and go for a while now. 2 points in favour of Trump atm, but its worth noting that all of Trump's swing state leads - Georgia, Ohio, Iowa and Texas - are in the margin of error.

    In general, the economist model swung back up 2 points to 86% today and the 538 poll is converging towards similar numbers. There was also a ridiculous poll from Maine tonight showing Biden with a 21pt lead and a 36pt lead amongst seniors, more evidence that suggests Susan Collins is finished.


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    #6370
    Water John
    Registered Users Posts: 21,117 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    Trump said tonight it will be very safe to go and vote on Nov 3rd as Covid will be much lower!!!


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    #6371
    Overheal
    Registered Users Posts: 81,648 ✭✭✭✭Overheal


    SC just signed a Covid Absentee voting bill. All state voters can now register for an absentee ballot.


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    #6372
    marno21
    Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 14,345 Mod ✭✭✭✭marno21


    In addition to the Maine poll above, Maine Senate poll out today has Susan Collins down 54-42. That’s quite a drop considering she won 68% of the vote in 2014.

    Same pollsters also did:

    South Carolina:
    Graham 48
    Harrison 48

    Kentucky:
    McConnell 53
    McGrath 41

    Kentucky one is disappointingly unsurprising but the SC Senate race looks like it could be a close one.


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    #6373
    Rjd2
    Registered Users Posts: 12,006 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    marno21 wrote: »
    In addition to the Maine poll above, Maine Senate poll out today has Susan Collins down 54-42. That’s quite a drop considering she won 68% of the vote in 2014.

    Same pollsters also did:

    South Carolina:
    Graham 48
    Harrison 48

    Kentucky:
    McConnell 53
    McGrath 41

    Kentucky one is disappointingly unsurprising but the SC Senate race looks like it could be a close one.


    Mc Grath was always going to bomb. Essentially the left wing version of Nikki Haley, adored by those in charge of the party and the donor's, but not got much of a base whatsoever outside online "resistance!!!!" types.

    That's very grim numbers for Collins, do recall I think before 2020 that was considered a somewhat safe hold for her, she can still win, but odds clearly against her.


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    #6374
    DK224
    Registered Users Posts: 324 ✭✭DK224


    marno21 wrote: »
    In addition to the Maine poll above, Maine Senate poll out today has Susan Collins down 54-42. That’s quite a drop considering she won 68% of the vote in 2014.

    Same pollsters also did:

    South Carolina:
    Graham 48
    Harrison 48

    Kentucky:
    McConnell 53
    McGrath 41

    Kentucky one is disappointingly unsurprising but the SC Senate race looks like it could be a close one.
    I would be wary of putting a lot stock on Quinnipiac polls based on their recent history.
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    #6375
    Itssoeasy
    Registered Users Posts: 39,440 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    droidus wrote: »
    Ohio has been touch and go for a while now. 2 points in favour of Trump atm, but its worth noting that all of Trump's swing state leads - Georgia, Ohio, Iowa and Texas - are in the margin of error.

    In general, the economist model swung back up 2 points to 86% today and the 538 poll is converging towards similar numbers. There was also a ridiculous poll from Maine tonight showing Biden with a 21pt lead and a 36pt lead amongst seniors, more evidence that suggests Susan Collins is finished.

    Susan Collins is done. She stood up for trump and she in all likelihood will feel the political consequences of that but so should all the rest. It looks like Mitch McConnell is opening up a lead of his challenger but Lindsay Graham is in a tight race in South Carolina.


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    #6376
    TomOnBoard
    Registered Users Posts: 5,109 ✭✭✭TomOnBoard


    Itssoeasy wrote: »
    Susan Collins is done. She stood up for trump and she in all likelihood will feel the political consequences of that but so should all the rest. It looks like Mitch McConnell is opening up a lead of his challenger but Lindsay Graham is in a tight race in South Carolina.

    If you could guarantee that Collins and Graham would be toast, I'd leave Mc Connell with his seat. He will be annihilated in the internal conflagration that will engulf the Republican Party and ALL Trump sycophants and enablers if/when Trump cancer is excised from the GOP.


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    #6377
    AbusesToilets
    Registered Users Posts: 9,959 ✭✭✭AbusesToilets


    Itssoeasy wrote: »
    Susan Collins is done. She stood up for trump and she in all likelihood will feel the political consequences of that but so should all the rest. It looks like Mitch McConnell is opening up a lead of his challenger but Lindsay Graham is in a tight race in South Carolina.

    It's incredible McConnell persists, one of the most insincere and odious individuals I've ever come across in politics. His wife is a crook too, up to her nose in self enrichment schemes.


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    #6378
    marno21
    Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 14,345 Mod ✭✭✭✭marno21


    McConnell is a shrewd political operator. He may have bent the US Senate over and destroyed it for as long as he's been in power but in the partisan environment of 2020 he is ideal for the GOP. There is no low to which he won't go to get what he wants.

    McConnell will keep his seat. Kentucky is a deep red state and McGrath is a weak candidate. As of right now I can see the Dems picking up Colorado, Arizona, Maine, Iowa and possibly NC and Montana. Iowa was previously Lean R but the polling Biden is getting in the Upper Midwest and the lack of reliable Iowa polling makes this an interesting tossup. Dems to retain Michigan and Minnesota but lose Alabama. 51-49 possibly to the Dems.


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    #6379
    Water John
    Registered Users Posts: 21,117 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    If Trump wins and the Dems turn the Senate, things would get really interesting. Highly unlikely as it seems Trump is dragging down the rest of the ballot.


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    #6380
    TomOnBoard
    Registered Users Posts: 5,109 ✭✭✭TomOnBoard


    James Comey (remember him?) is due to testify before Graham's Senate Judiciary Committee on Sept 30.

    I'm not so sure its a wise move for Graham to have him in just weeks before the Election. Like, Jimmy Boy has a bit of a history of doing things that affect elections... Just sayin'...

    Maybe Redemption is on Jimmy's mind???


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    #6381
    TomOnBoard
    Registered Users Posts: 5,109 ✭✭✭TomOnBoard


    Water John wrote: »
    If Trump wins and the Dems turn the Senate, things would get really interesting. Highly unlikely as it seems Trump is dragging down the rest of the ballot.

    Look upon that as Plan C... If Trump wins and Dems take the Senate and retain the House, Impeachment No. 2 by August 2021.


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    #6382
    StringerBell
    Registered Users Posts: 14,022 ✭✭✭✭StringerBell


    AbusesToilets wrote: »
    It's incredible McConnell persists, one of the most insincere and odious individuals I've ever come across in politics. His wife is a crook too, up to her nose in self enrichment schemes.

    This is a rare occasion (in politics at least) where I am in total agreement with you on both counts.

    He persists the same reason most do I guess, power and greed. I give the devil his due, but when he is gone everyone will be better off.

    "People say ‘go with the flow’ but do you know what goes with the flow? Dead fish."



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    #6383
    Overheal
    Registered Users Posts: 81,648 ✭✭✭✭Overheal


    AbusesToilets wrote: »
    It's incredible McConnell persists, one of the most insincere and odious individuals I've ever come across in politics. His wife is a crook too, up to her nose in self enrichment schemes.

    Amen!


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    #6384
    5GMadeMeDoIt
    Closed Accounts Posts: 37 ✭5GMadeMeDoIt


    Itssoeasy wrote: »
    Susan Collins is done. She stood up for trump and she in all likelihood will feel the political consequences of that but so should all the rest. It looks like Mitch McConnell is opening up a lead of his challenger but Lindsay Graham is in a tight race in South Carolina.

    I wonder will this make the republicans think twice about going for a new Trump in the future. I think it really hurts them in Congress. It makes winning blue states nearly impossible and winning light red states much harder.

    Susan Collins had nowhere to go. Attacking Trump would have lost her the race as his base would abandon her and not ditching him makes it impossible to pick up light blues and even some light reds.


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    #6385
    duploelabs
    Registered Users Posts: 11,135 ✭✭✭✭duploelabs


    TomOnBoard wrote: »
    Look upon that as Plan C... If Trump wins and Dems take the Senate and retain the House, Impeachment No. 2 by August 2021.

    Impeachment 2: Electric boogaloo.

    Seriously though, losing the senate along with a Dem house would mean curtains for Trump. Can't magine what charade might happen if that were to happen


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    #6386
    Quin_Dub
    Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 15,000 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    TomOnBoard wrote: »
    James Comey (remember him?) is due to testify before Graham's Senate Judiciary Committee on Sept 30.

    I'm not so sure its a wise move for Graham to have him in just weeks before the Election. Like, Jimmy Boy has a bit of a history of doing things that affect elections... Just sayin'...

    Maybe Redemption is on Jimmy's mind???

    That is the day after the 1st debate - Clearly an attempt to shift the news narrative on the day after the debate.

    It might or might not work.

    No doubt it will provide Fox with a few "clips" of some GOP Senator launching some diatribe about the "Witchhunt".

    But as you say will be interesting if Comey decides that the gloves are off and just goes for it.


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    #6387
    StringerBell
    Registered Users Posts: 14,022 ✭✭✭✭StringerBell


    5GMadeMeDoIt wrote: »
    I wonder will this make the republicans think twice about going for a new Trump in the future. I think it really hurts them in Congress. It makes winning blue states nearly impossible and winning light red states much harder.

    Susan Collins had nowhere to go. Attacking Trump would have lost her the race as his base would abandon her and not ditching him makes it impossible to pick up light blues and even some light reds.

    Nah the benefits to them putting forward a competent politician who can act trumpian for the base far outweigh the costs, control of the SC and jurisprudence for multiple generations for one thing.

    "People say ‘go with the flow’ but do you know what goes with the flow? Dead fish."



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    #6388
    5GMadeMeDoIt
    Closed Accounts Posts: 37 ✭5GMadeMeDoIt


    StringerBell wrote: »
    Nah the benefits to them putting forward a competent politician who can act trumpian for the base far outweigh the costs, control of the SC and jurisprudence for multiple generations for one thing.

    I've heard a few people say that the danger is what happens when the GOP find a 'competent' Trump. Surely a very large component of what makes Trump what he is, IS his incompetence. His stupidity is an essential ingredient in his makeup. It lets him get away with what he gets away with because it is pretty much impossible to engage him on any sort of intellectual level. Once a politician engages on an intellectual level, they are there for the taking.

    Short of finding someone smart who is able to act like Trump 100% of the time without breaking character, 'Competent Trump' is an oxymoron.


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    #6389
    StringerBell
    Registered Users Posts: 14,022 ✭✭✭✭StringerBell


    All they have to do is follow the blueprint of how he carries on publicly, and for his audience and tweak it so that he can actually make deals behind the scenes. Have an actual plan that goes beyond "will I look good here, was I strong?" "Is it ever enough orange make-up?"

    A competent politician playing the role of the idiot is well within their ability. Look at Boris.

    "People say ‘go with the flow’ but do you know what goes with the flow? Dead fish."



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    #6390
    Igotadose
    Registered Users Posts: 12,963 ✭✭✭✭Igotadose


    correct horse battery staple wrote: »
    https://www.axios.com/fbi-director-russia-election-ac152f12-a992-4882-8677-b7d5d16dc918.html

    In the meantime we have the FBI director confirming a

    Politically its going to be very interesting to see in which fashion will Trump come down on him now, he cant be too harsh as that sort blows his "law and order" message out of the water (tho its already sinking due to all the holes in the hull)

    This one's easy. They'll do nothing. Some noise and bluster and I'm sure an investigation scheduled for late November/December if anyone bothers to look.


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    #6391
    Quin_Dub
    Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 15,000 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    correct horse battery staple wrote: »
    https://www.axios.com/fbi-director-russia-election-ac152f12-a992-4882-8677-b7d5d16dc918.html

    In the meantime we have the FBI director confirming a

    Politically its going to be very interesting to see in which fashion will Trump come down on him now, he cant be too harsh as that sort blows his "law and order" message out of the water (tho its already sinking due to all the holes in the hull)

    He's already tweeted trying to claim that China is the bigger threat because of mail-in voting blah blah blah

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1306749921173762049

    And as you can see , Tweeter have his it with a "Learn how Mail-in voting is safe and secure" warning.


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