US Presidential Election 2020

Igotadose

Igotadose wrote: »

Nixon looks better than Trump *today* and he's been dead for awhile.

The #IMPOTUS last night claimed Covid-19 affects 'virtually nobody.' Good to know, tell that to 200,000 dead people. And a few million very sick from it.

https://www.mediaite.com/news/trump-says-coronavirus-affects-virtually-nobody-as-death-toll-set-to-hit-200000/

You just know there will be posters who are gonna agree with it. But there's also plenty of pretty health young people who do have compromised immune systems. And can't see them or their families being happy that they're viewed as so expendable. Eg I've got a compromised immune system and I'm under the age of thirty, I'm a big runner so I'm fitter than most. And it's not unusual to find young people who are compromised...

Dillonb3

A lot of GOP held seats not looking too good at the minute
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1308370183191506944

Although they look to hold onto Kentucky (Mitch's seat) and gain Alabama while Lindsey has a 1 point lead over Harrison. Dems really wasted a lot of money in Kentucky when they could've contributed to more realistic seats like Cornyn's in Texas

Water John

Indicating a win in 4 and lose 1 for the Dems? That's 50/50.
Susan Collins trailing by 5 in Maine in latest poll, but sample is only 500.
https://www.boston.com/news/politics/2020/09/21/collins-trails-gideon-in-maine-senate-race-according-to-a-new-suffolk-globe-poll

StringerBell

I think Graham is in trouble in his race. Good bit to go yet but at the minute he's losing it imo.

eire4

Latest polls in Maine have Collins down 4-5 points so if they lost that one as well that would give the Democrats a slim majority assuming the above polls all held true. Ernst in Iowa is also a possible Democratic gain. The latest polls there have the Democrat with a narrow lead.

Beyond that the Democrats have a shot in Montana where the latest polls have them down 3 and also in South Carolina against a certain Lindsay Graham where the last polls have that race in a dead heat. Conversely other then Alabama the Republicans do not seem to have a real shot at any other currently held Democratic seat. So as things stand right now who controls the senate is still very much up for grabs but a slim Democratic majority seems likely.

Quin_Dub

Georgia is potentially very interesting - Both seats are up for Election , but Loefflers seat is the one that might have bearing on the SCOTUS seat.

Her seat is a special election , not a regular one as is the Arizona seat currently held by McSally.

For both those seats , the winners take their place in the senate immediately after the Election the next time the Senate sits , not in January like the rest of the seats being contested this time around.

Kelly looks like a very solid bet to take the McSally seat in Arizona but if Loeffler was to lose as well , the GOP might not have the votes to fill the SCOTUS seat if they can't get the vote down before November 3rd.

Right now there are 6 people running for the seat and the way it works is that if no single candidate gets 50%+ the top two then have a run off election.

Right now no one is anywhere near the 50% - Loeffler is sitting in the 25-28% range , with Doug Collins, the other GOP candidate sitting at about 20%.

However , there are several Democrat candidates who together are polling at about ~40% - There is a push to get the Democrats to consolidate around the lead candidate (Warnock) who is polling slightly about Collins at present.

If they can do that they could have a shot at taking that seat , particularly if Ossoff can keep the pressure on Perdue.

TomOnBoard

It's now becoming much clearer that the SCOTUS vacancy will be voted on by Election Day, come Hell or High water.

All the Rep Senators who signalled in the past that a vacancy so close to an election ought not be voted on have flipped. As of now, only Murkowski and Collins have indicated that they would prefer that no vote would be taken before Nov 3. They haven't said they'd vote against a nominee before Nov 3, nor have they said they'd have a problem with a vote after Nov 3.

I reckon that internal Republican polling is painting a small Blue Wave in the Senate that will reduce them to a very slim majority or even a minority. That polling is also telling them that Trump is in a major battle. So, they'll try and extract something from the ashes, and a 6-3 SCOTUS majority is the best they can achieve at this stage. They may even convince Thomas to retire and make way for a decades long 6-3 by filling a second seat.

With a 2021 Democratic White House, Senate and House of Representatives to aim for, Dems should maximise whatever they can from the SCOTUS confirmation(s), and resolve the situation when they are back in charge. This upcoming battle may not be the hill to die on!

TomOnBoard

A very sad milestone was passed today in the USA, while the country passed into the 1st day of Fall. The number of deaths from Covid-19 passed beyond the horrendous level of 200,000! That's 200,000 souls lost!

Its a crime that an Administration has watched over this miilestone, apparently with indifference, with a President who told followers last night that Covid has barely touched on people..

I trust that Biden's campaign will mark this sad milestone appropriately and then go on to shame the hell out of an Administration that mis-managed the pandemic that caused such a grevious death toll, and a Republican Party that enabled the self-enriching cabal that has comprised that Administration!

Carfacemandog

Remember when that same president said that 100,000 would be a "very good job" and then later bragged about how they would only get about 60,000 deaths because - unlike other countries - the Trump administration wasn't just "winging it." Even in horrific situations like this, the clown and those around him truly are beyond parody.

100,000 dead would still be in the top 25 globally for reference, despite the US barely being touched by the virus for months later than much of the rest of the world outside of NY/NJ.

Wanderer78

Carfacemandog wrote:

100,000 dead would still be in the top 25 globally for reference, despite the US barely being touched by the virus for months later than much of the rest of the world outside of NY/NJ.

...and he still could manage to get it over the line, again, what a train wreck of a country

everlast75

Another substantial endorsement.

https://twitter.com/cindymccain/status/1308552702134087680?s=19

I've never seen such a crossover from the opposition party in an election

everlast75

Another day, another appalling comment.

Do ye remember maybe last year or so, people lost their collective sh1t when AOC called Trump a racist.

Isn't it incredible that every sane person now just ... just accepts that he is!?

POTUS is a racist.

Some people just don't mind that he is.

Some vote for him because he is.

What a shocking state of affairs that he has more than a chance of winning.

https://twitter.com/IlhanMN/status/1308579169081540608?s=19

Dillonb3

Dillonb3 wrote: »

A lot of GOP held seats not looking too good at the minute
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1308370183191506944

Although they look to hold onto Kentucky (Mitch's seat) and gain Alabama while Lindsey has a 1 point lead over Harrison. Dems really wasted a lot of money in Kentucky when they could've contributed to more realistic seats like Cornyn's in Texas

When do these votes take place?

TomOnBoard

everlast75 wrote: »

Another day, another appalling comment.

Do ye remember maybe last year or so, people lost their collective sh1t when AOC called Trump a racist.

Isn't it incredible that every sane person now just ... just accepts that he is!?

POTUS is a racist.

Some people just don't mind that he is.

Some vote for him because he is.

What a shocking state of affairs that he has more than a chance of winning.

https://twitter.com/IlhanMN/status/1308579169081540608?s=19

Trump is not only yer basic racist- he is really a White Supremacist, which is an even more extreme form of racism. His signature calls to his base are couched in White Supremacist terms and sadly some of his supporters dont see that or dont want to see it.

In reality, Make America Great Again is really Make America White Again.

When Joe Biden says he is trying to recover the soul of America, he is trying to pull her back from the brink of totalitarianism and fascism.

Joe Biden's supporters need to understand this and explain it to all their family and friends. Joe Biden needs to hammer this truth home at every turn.

Water John

All votes on Nov 3rd, but two seats are being defended by GOP Senators put there by a State Govn'r, so these take there seats straight away, whoever wins them.

everlast75

A deeply worrying article in The Atlantic.

In addition to rushing an appointment to SCOTUS to assist in finding in favour of Trump (which he admitted to in one of his Yellicopter interviews), this is also happening

https://twitter.com/YAppelbaum/status/1308721379211120640?s=19

An all out assault on democracy, without any shred of hyperbole.

markodaly

everlast75 wrote: »

An all out assault on democracy, without any shred of hyperbole.

Ah come here, I don't have as much interest in US politics as I used to have, or skin in the game, but the last comment from you there is funny, given your own persistent hyperbolic comments on the matters at hand.

As an aside, what would be interesting is that if the Dems take all three, the WH, the Senate and Congress. How will that shape 2021-2022?
The Dems always over-reach though and 2022 will be another Dem wipeout, like in 2010.

looksee

The entire article is worth reading and is nightmare-ish, to the extent that I understand it. It is really beyond comprehension that a system could be so corrupted, and people so corrupt as to deliberately just destroy an election. The will of the people just does not apply - and as I understand it Trump has clearly expressed concern that Democrats might try and bring out all their voters - well yes, what else would they do?

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/11/what-if-trump-refuses-concede/616424/

eire4

everlast75 wrote: »

A deeply worrying article in The Atlantic.

In addition to rushing an appointment to SCOTUS to assist in finding in favour of Trump (which he admitted to in one of his Yellicopter interviews), this is also happening

https://twitter.com/YAppelbaum/status/1308721379211120640?s=19

An all out assault on democracy, without any shred of hyperbole.

Would not surprise me at all. The Republican party just continues to lurch further and further away from being a democratic party. While I have said a number of times before that as we got closer to the election if it was clear the president was losing which seems to be the case then he would engage in all sorts of dark deeds legal, illegal he does not care to try and avoid defeat. Just listen to his speeches as they are so full of projection as well as lies of course. I will again in advance too say watch out for the post election. If he wins he will go on a rampage of a revenge tour against anyone and anything he sees as not having been loyal and obedient to him. If he losses he will spend the following 2 months burning down the house so to speak. Who knows exactly what that will involve but it will be a scorched earth policy at that point IMHO. When you add in the raging pandemic and it does not look good at all on that score things look extremely bleak for the US in the months ahead. Plus as I always say given the power of the US on the world stage like that or not this is bad news for us all not just for Americans.

namloc1980

The inherent flaw in the Electoral College is that the will of the people may be completely ignored in the presidential election. It's highly likely that Trump will not accept the election result if he loses in November. There will be a constitutional crisis unlike any other. Based on the GOPs enablement of Trump to date it's probable that they will continue to support him in subverting the election result.

Quin_Dub

looksee wrote: »

The entire article is worth reading and is nightmare-ish, to the extent that I understand it. It is really beyond comprehension that a system could be so corrupted, and people so corrupt as to deliberately just destroy an election. The will of the people just does not apply - and as I understand it Trump has clearly expressed concern that Democrats might try and bring out all their voters - well yes, what else would they do?

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/11/what-if-trump-refuses-concede/616424/

I think the thing that the article really exposes is how utterly arcane and bizarre the Electoral system truly is in the US.

The sheer levels of convoluted , frankly pre-historic laws and addendums is utterly frightening . As the article points out there are so many scenarios where no-one actually knows who is the final arbiter and indeed there are multiple where they already no that the scenario has no result.

It's just crazy.

Tell me how

looksee wrote: »

The entire article is worth reading and is nightmare-ish, to the extent that I understand it. It is really beyond comprehension that a system could be so corrupted, and people so corrupt as to deliberately just destroy an election. The will of the people just does not apply - and as I understand it Trump has clearly expressed concern that Democrats might try and bring out all their voters - well yes, what else would they do?

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/11/what-if-trump-refuses-concede/616424/

Seth Abramson pointed this method out a couple of weeks ago and suggested Trumps comments on people submitting postal votes, and then going voting in person would be used by his followers to do just that, which would then be picked up as fraud in order to initiate the above actions.

Very very sinister.

everlast75

markodaly wrote: »

Ah come here, I don't have as much interest in US politics as I used to have, or skin in the game, but the last comment from you there is funny, given your own persistent hyperbolic comments on the matters at hand.

"Funny", multiple posters after my post found it not to be hyperbolic at all.

duploelabs

Seems this exploits that a normal president wouldn't exploit are to be plugged according to this proposal.

"House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and her top lieutenants on Wednesday unveiled a sweeping anti-corruption package that they're billing as a successor to post-Watergate reforms — updated for a potential post-Trump Washington.

The measure, a 158-page Democratic wish list that includes curbs on pardons for close associates of the president, a requirement for campaigns to publicly report many foreign contacts and a requirement for courts to prioritize congressional subpoenas, is House leaders' version of an antidote to what they see as weaknesses in democratic government exposed by President Donald Trump"

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/23/pelosi-corruption-reforms-trump-420355

briany

namloc1980 wrote: »

The inherent flaw in the Electoral College is that the will of the people may be completely ignored in the presidential election. It's highly likely that Trump will not accept the election result if he loses in November. There will be a constitutional crisis unlike any other. Based on the GOPs enablement of Trump to date it's probable that they will continue to support him in subverting the election result.

Well this is the problem - the Republican party may have recoiled from Trump before it became clear that he would be their nominee, and even certain prominent Republican politicans have spoken out firmly against him, but what the party have not done, or at least not been doing effectively, is to coalesce around a new leader. And in many ways that's understandable - a party usually supports its figurehead until that figurehead is booted out of office, but Trump is so divisive that the gulf between traditional small government Republicans and MAGA Trumpists may not be able to be bridged, and that gulf grows wider every day, and the Republican establishment helped forge that gulf and it really leads me to believe that they must now choose one faction or the other in the event of a Trump loss. And that choice will be based on the greatest potential electoral yield going forward. If that's Trump's lot, then get ready for a bumpy ride...

droidus

The bipartisan transition integrity project have pretty much predicted some form of civil war if the election is contested, and it seems that Trump's path to victory involves contesting the election. Plus, he's a psychopath.

Its been said before that if Trump wins, this election could be America's last, but this might also be true if he loses.

namloc1980

droidus wrote: »

The bipartisan transition integrity project have pretty much predicted some form of civil war if the election is contested, and it seems that Trump's path to victory involves contesting the election. Plus, he's a psychopath.

Its been said before that if Trump wins, this election could be America's last, but this might also be true if he loses.

I can't see the US collapsing however there is the increasing possibility that there is going to be a constitutional crisis after the election. If Trump loses narrowly enough, which is a strong possibility at this stage, a few things will almost certainly happen:

- Trump will refuse to concede and will instead claim the election was stolen by the Democrats (he's been laying the groundwork for that for years now),
- a fleet of Trump lawyers will petition courts across the country, and especially in the swing states, to either seek invalidation of the election results in certain states and/or that mail in ballots get thrown out,
- Trump supporters (some armed) will take to the streets.

What happens after that is anyone's guess. It's fascinating to watch.

briany

namloc1980 wrote: »

- Trump supporters (some armed) will take to the streets.

Can't discount this as a possibility, but their tactic will probably be this, in the event - they'll show up and stand there with their guns and attempt to goad the Antifa headers into a violent confrontation at which point they'll play the victim, i.e. "We were attacked by anarchists for exercising our second amendment rights!". Anyone opposed to them would be very wise to deprive them and starve them of that vital oxygen. Let them come, if they must, but let them be the first to kick off and undermine their cause in the eyes of any halfway reasonable American citizen.

TomOnBoard

The Republican Party came out with all guns blazing in 2000 when a very close election became the subject of a recount in Florida, ultimately leading to a Supreme Court decision that neutered Gore's election prospects.

At that time, the Republicans fought tooth and nail for every vote that was in Bush's favour. The Democrats on the other hand hardly mounted any legal fight, then took the 'high moral ground' and Gore conceded 'for the good of the country'.

If every vote-count fight across the country is dealt with in the same way in 2020, whereby Dems go high while Reps go low, then Biden had better produce a resounding majority across both popular vote and electoral college on election night or he's toast, regardless of the size of his vote. I hope that the Dems do not take the high road this time.... it simply is a failed strategy and will result in a Trump victory by the most foul means ever experienced in a US election.

droidus

What does 'collapse' mean exactly? The US isn't going to cease to exist, but if Trump loses (the most likely outcome) and essentially stages a soft coup, then the resulting chaos will cause irreparable damage to country that's already close to disintegration. It's already a failed state in many respects but its certainly possible to see thing sliding into outright authoritarianism, with all that entails.

'Fascinating' isnt a word id use. The consequences will be utterly disastrous for tens of millions in the US and the repercussions will be felt globally.