US Presidential Election 2020

TomOnBoard

Headshot wrote: »

How close is it between Biden and Trump in Florida at the moment?

Neck and neck, possibly leaning Biden by a hair. But all to play for!

Water John

The Cuban Latino vote is different from the rest of the US. If you declared war on Castro you'd get all their votes.

hotmail.com

everlast75 wrote: »

With Florida being a key battleground, this could prove important

https://twitter.com/politvidchannel/status/1305127088110804993?s=19

Grotesque waste of money.

hotmail.com

hotmail.com wrote: »

Grotesque waste of money.

I wouldn't classify anything that can flip this election as a waste of money. It could be far more costly to not do it.

Overheal

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I wouldn't classify anything that can flip this election as a waste of money. It could be far more costly to not do it.

Florida is this entire race, as it pretty much is every modern election, because Republicans cant generally win without it.

Even more concerning is the Florida government. DeSantis is by no secret very determined to see a Trump victory. There’s been a fair amount of alignment between 11th circuit Trump judges and the 4th amendment lawsuit. However you feel about it, Florida is not a level playing field and Dems have every reason to fund that battleground asymmetrically.

TomOnBoard

hotmail.com wrote: »

Grotesque waste of money.

Is it Bloomberg's potential spend of $100 million that is a grotesque waste of money, or is it that all the spend (overall 2-3Bn) by both campaigns is a grotesque waste of money, or is it the Trump campaign's 800million spend to date with almost two months to go that is the grotesque waste.

Your position is unclear to me.

Brussels Sprout

Overheal wrote: »

Florida is this entire race, as it pretty much is every modern election, because Republicans cant generally win without it.

Even more concerning is the Florida government. DeSantis is by no secret very determined to see a Trump victory. There’s been a fair amount of alignment between 11th circuit Trump judges and the 4th amendment lawsuit. However you feel about it, Florida is not a level playing field and Dems have every reason to fund that battleground asymmetrically.

Classic example of this in action: Florida was one of the states that banned felons from voting even after they had served their sentences. This was disenfranchising 10% of their voting age population. This was the highest % of any state in the country and was dis-proportionality affecting the black population.

Laws were made to allow those who had served their time to vote in 2007 but the Republican governor reversed these in 2011. The citizens then by-passed the politicians by passing Amendment 4 in 2018 by a larger margin (65%-35%) to give the felons their votes back. The Republicans reacted to this act of democracy by writing new laws that would once again disenfranchise these felons if they had any outstanding fines. By one estimate this amounts to 700,000 people.

Water John

Interesting piece on CNN on the Florida Latinos. It's simple that Trump is calling Biden a communist, believe it or not. This means Trump is ahead of Biden with them. Biden needs to attack that.

TomOnBoard

Water John wrote: »

Interesting piece on CNN on the Florida Latinos. It's simple that Trump is calling Biden a communist, believe it or not. This means Trump is ahead of Biden with them. Biden needs to attack that.

Oh, I can well believe it. Trump dog-whistles people using a loud hailer. This is a clear attempt to capture all the Castro regime emigres from Cuba..

Isnt it ironic that a cohort who escaped persecution and death, who fled to the US and were allowed to stay on the grounds of being persecuted or killed in their homeland, should now even consider voting for someone who would never have let them in?

Water John

Ana Navarro CNN said the Dems need to run ads showing Trump cosying up to dictators.

TomOnBoard

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Classic example of this in action: Florida was one of the states that banned felons from voting even after they had served their sentences. This was disenfranchising 10% of their voting age population. This was the highest % of any state in the country and was dis-proportionality affecting the black population.

Laws were made to allow those who had served their time to vote in 2007 but the Republican governor reversed these in 2011. The citizens then by-passed the politicians by passing Amendment 4 in 2018 by a larger margin (65%-35%) to give the felons their votes back. The Republicans reacted to this act of democracy by writing new laws that would once again disenfranchise these felons if they had any outstanding fines. By one estimate this amounts to 700,000 people.

And IIRC, they can't or won't tell them how much the owe so they couldnt settle them even if they had the money.. catch 22 anyone???

Brian?

hotmail.com wrote: »

Grotesque waste of money.

I hate whataboutery normally.

But each side is about to spend about a billion dollars on this campaign. I feel you’re only upset because the money is being spent for Biden.

Capt'n Midnight

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Classic example of this in action: Florida was one of the states that banned felons from voting even after they had served their sentences. This was disenfranchising 10% of their voting age population. This was the highest % of any state in the country and was dis-proportionality affecting the black population.

It was worse than that. They were purging felons by name from the list. From all of the states many of whom restore the right to vote automatically, not even bothering to see if the were the same person, or gender or colour. Things like reversing the name order. Or dropping junior or senior or using nicknames.


https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-2001-may-21-mn-620-story.html

TomOnBoard

AFAIK, Cuban Latinos comprise around 7% of Floridas population. Assuming that translated into them also comprising 7% of voters, then this is whats in play:

Votes in total: 9,300,000
Cuban latino votes (est): 651,000
Every 1% of that vote: 6,500 votes

In 2016, it's estimated that Trump secured 53% of the Cuban latino vote in FL: 345,000

So, if Trump's 'Joe is a Communist' rhetoric moves the needle even a little bit, it bites into Biden's vote considerably. For every 1,000 2016 Dem votes that decide to vote Rep this time, thats a 2,000 movement on the needle. Every 1% moved from formerly Dem to newly Rep is worth 13,000 votes. In a race that had a 113,000 majority for Trump last time out, a 13,000 movement is massive.

So, thats why Bloomberg's100 million means so much in FL.

kyote00

Hmm, yeah grand. But the book stops with the president ....

If he sees it going south - irrespective of who is ****ing up - then he is the person that needs to step in and organise at the federal level.

His early response was 100% optics ---> he rolled out a procession of corporate buddies to stroke his ego ..... did GM build even one ventilator ? Or did they pocket $450m to help a startup build ventilators

10s of billions of tax dollars have gone missing - yet still between 800-1000 people a day dying from covid, armed hard left and hard right on streets., rampant homelessness on west coast cities. Trillons of dollars in state aid (is that not communism ?)

civil war number 2 on the cards before 2030 unless major reset button pressed....

Manic Moran wrote: »

Not disputing that. The determination to blame Trump should not, however, deflect from any responsibility where it exists. I've no doubt that a number of State level politicians are saying "Thank God Trump's a waving red flag, and nobody's paying much attention to our screw-ups." We're basically talking about 50 countries, each with a legislature, department of health, and legal authorities. If von der Leyen had said "It's nothing to worry about", and Varadker had responded accordingly, would you expect folks wouldn't at least be asking questions as to the Irish response? It's not as if she covered herself with glory from her leadership of the EU Executive earlier this year, yet some countries seemed to manage perfectly fine. It's the same in the US. Some States, both with R and D leadership got it right, despite Trump. Some, with both R and D leadership didn't.

There is still only so far even his influence goes. Let's say, for the sake of the argument, that the leadership of the company I work are Trump-worshipping Republicans (They aren't, actually, they're uncomfortably open about their anti-Trump politics in my opinion). They decide that they want to have everyone return to work in the office, to obtain the praise of Trump like JP did. They'd need to find a new office, because by order of the Mayor of Austin and subject to both criminal and civil penalty, the office is closed. The President himself cannot override the Mayor. That sort of authority is vested at every level from city to State.

The bottom line is that if all the state level leaderships were doing their jobs properly, the US's coronavirus figures would be a lot less worse than they actually are. Trump is not helping, but Trump is not responsible for things like the slashing of California's pandemic budget and stockpile five years ago, NYC's encouraging of going about daily life in mid March, Florida's refusal to shut down over Spring Break or South Dakota's continuation of the Sturgis motorcyle rally.

To say that State level leadership screwed up is not to state that Trump's response was great. However, to state that the US's coronavirus condition today is the primary fault of Trump is to ignore that the people with the actual statutory authorities and obligations to lead in the pandemic response have in large part failed. And when Trump is out of office, that authority and obligation will still lie with the State, who will have to deal with the next problem to come along, without the benefit of being able to say "Look, Squirrel" and point at the President whilst their citizens die.

StringerBell

Water John wrote: »

Ana Navarro CNN said the Dems need to run ads showing Trump cosying up to dictators.

Particularly the "commies" the likes of Kim, Xi and the mother load of all of course, daddy Vlad.

Are the Cuban Latinos actually that stupid en masse though? Surely they have seen enough in 4 years of this and have seen enough of Biden in the past 130 years he's been in politics to realise he ain't a communist and trump is just a pathological liar?

everlast75

Unfortunately, Roger Stone hasn't gone away.

He's still in Trump's ear and holds influence.

Have a look at what he is suggesting should happen around the election...


https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1304888368057196546.html

TomOnBoard

StringerBell wrote: »

Particularly the "commies" the likes of Kim, Xi and the mother load of all of course, daddy Vlad.

Are the Cuban Latinos actually that stupid en masse though? Surely they have seen enough in 4 years of this and have seen enough of Biden in the past 130 years he's been in politics to realise he ain't a communist and trump is just a pathological liar?

No wonder poor ould Joe needs a sleep if he's been in the political saddle since 1890..

But yeah, 53% of Cuban Latinos voted Trump last time out. As the Yanks say: Go figure!

TomOnBoard

everlast75 wrote: »

Unfortunately, Roger Stone hasn't gone away.

He's still in Trump's ear and holds influence.

Have a look at what he is suggesting should happen around the election...


https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1304888368057196546.html

Rat****er in chief! Who could argue he's gone away and hold a straight face? This felon is up to his Homburg in it all! Definitly pulling strokes behind the scenes!

Capt'n Midnight

kyote00 wrote: »

Hmm, yeah grand. But the book stops with the president ....

Harry S. Truman isn't in the running for top US president ever.

But on his desk he had a The Buck Stops Here sign.

Trump blames others because it's never his fault. Republicans have control so it's not like he couldn't get stuff done. And he'll always claim the credit though.

StringerBell

TomOnBoard wrote: »

No wonder poor ould Joe needs a sleep if he's been in the political saddle since 1890..

But yeah, 53% of Cuban Latinos voted Trump last time out. As the Yanks say: Go figure!

Last time I can understand though, a lot of people just did not like Hilary, combined with trump being a reality TV star, which they love in the states and him being an "outsider" and all that other **** that he sold them. There was a strong **** it why not element to his election too. That surely has evaporated this time, it has like if you look at the undecideds this time compared to last time, I think Biden is polling better with the Cuban Latinos than Clinton was too but obviously he has work to do with them to ensure they turn out for him. If they do then that's the ball game, he is already leading with the white suburban women and older white voters both demographics who were crucial to trump.

Fr Tod Umptious

StringerBell wrote: »

Particularly the "commies" the likes of Kim, Xi and the mother load of all of course, daddy Vlad.

Are the Cuban Latinos actually that stupid en masse though? Surely they have seen enough in 4 years of this and have seen enough of Biden in the past 130 years he's been in politics to realise he ain't a communist and trump is just a pathological liar?

Do you forget what Obama, and by extension Biden, did with Cuba ?

They went and "normalized" relations with Cuba without a single sacrifice from the Castros.

No political prisoner were released, no increased freedom of speech, nothing.
Cuba were brought in from the cold for free, because a weak president was at that stage was on what I would call a "legacy hunt".

So no wonder Cuban Americans would not have a great view of Biden.

TomOnBoard

StringerBell wrote: »

Particularly the "commies" the likes of Kim, Xi and the mother load of all of course, daddy Vlad.

Are the Cuban Latinos actually that stupid en masse though? Surely they have seen enough in 4 years of this and have seen enough of Biden in the past 130 years he's been in politics to realise he ain't a communist and trump is just a pathological liar?

No! The last thing I'd be doing is describing Cuban Latinos in Florida as 'stupid'.

Like any other group they're a mix of personalities, capabilities, moralities and humanness. But, these are VERY clued-in people whose loyalty to their homeland is stronger than most because most of them had to leave lives, wealth, property and power behind when the Castros took over and implemented a brutal system of oppression and associated atrocities.

So, any of these proud people who voted Trump in 2016 were NOT deplorables as coined (crassly) at the time.

So, when I question why 53% voted Trump, I'm not asking that as an insult to them... Im asking so that ppl will take the time to understand what it is that is needed to address their needs..

Cuba lies approx 100 miles south of Key West in Florida.. The ongoing impasse simply CANNOT continue!

Thats a discussion that Biden needs to "bottom out' in FL.

StringerBell

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

[/b]

Do you forget what Obama, and by extension Biden, did with Cuba ?

They went and "normalized" relations with Cuba without a single sacrifice from the Castros.

No political prisoner were released, no increased freedom of speech, nothing.
Cuba were brought in from the cold for free, because a weak president was at that stage was on what I would call a "legacy hunt".

So no wonder Cuban Americans would not have a great view of Biden.

I understand why Biden has issues with that demographic, and I'm not gonna go down that path with you right now on the pros and cons of "normalising" relations with Cuba, it doesn't change my point though. Or my question, are they really stupid, en masse? I don't mean some of them, but if 40%+ buy the **** trump is selling them (I give them a pass in 2016) re Biden being a socialist and how for some reason the president who wouldn't have even let these people into the country is the best choice for them then it really is a shocking indictment.

StringerBell

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/516245-doctor-warns-trumps-nevada-rally-is-negligent-homicide-people-will-die

Doctor warns Trump rally in nevada was negligent homicide. I see Trump being drowned in lawsuits if he loses. Same rally was covered on CNN and for laugh I checked fox, only 2 people I could see wearing masks, one had it on his chin.

No he's covered, he makes them sign disclaimers that they won't sue him or the campaign if anything happens to them. Came up a while back.

Nody

StringerBell wrote: »

No he's covered, he makes them sign disclaimers that they won't sue him or the campaign if anything happens to them. Came up a while back.

I'd not be to sure on that; same way you can't sign a paper stating you're fine to be killed there will be limitations on what you can sign away here, esp. if you've been warned about the danger. I'd expect the most likely outcome would be a lawsuit by a surviving family member in some form that would end with a undisclosed settlement (as is so common with Trump).

StringerBell

Oh without doubt he would settle, it's what he does. I would assume however that them freely signing a waiver that they will not hold the trump campaign etc responsible will have a pretty strong sway in plenty of the civil courts in the land.

Especially when you know his defence will be that they knew what they were getting in to, they knew the risks, they were widely reported and they even signed a waiver to say they accepted the personal responsibility for any risks undertaken

Water John

So some posters say control of the pandemic is largely the responsibility of each Govn'r and State. Well what do you do when Trump comes into your state and breaks the guidelines and law?

Nody

StringerBell wrote: »

Oh without doubt he would settle, it's what he does. I would assume however that them freely signing a waiver that they will not hold the trump campaign etc responsible will have a pretty strong sway in plenty of the civil courts in the land.

Especially when you know his defence will be that they knew what they were getting in to, they knew the risks, they were widely reported and they even signed a waiver to say they accepted the personal responsibility for any risks undertaken

It would only reduce the liability percentage and not remove it though. Think of the McDonalds coffee case with McD serving coffee that was to hot to drink and could cause damage and they were aware of this fact. Yes; the woman who put the cup between her legs was found partially liable (20% if I recall) but McD was the main culprit and the same would apply here. Yes; attending and signing the waiver will have partial blame but the greater part would sit with Trump ignoring the medical advice and breaking local county rules. The families can point as well on that Trump as the sitting president and hence head honcho had access to more information on the topic than your average citizen etc. and he still asked people to join etc.

StringerBell

Is it the same thing though? You don't put your name to something when you go to McDonald's agreeing not to hold them responsible for any negative outcome of your visit.

I would imagine we will get to see it tested in the near future so will find out for sure then. Hopefully he gets sued to the point where nobody does something this stupid and reckless for a political campaign in the future.