The sun is dead!! Mini iceage???

nacho libre wrote: »

Does the lack of updates indicate sunspot activity has increased in recent times? I am just hoping there is a lag effect around low sunspot activity which means winter 2019/20 will be a cold one. I suppose it's a bit early to be thinking about next winter at this stage

The harvest in 1923 and, in particular, 1924 was nothing short of disastrous. The weather, while not particularly cold, was unusually wet. Crop yields collapsed.

The worst affected areas were in the west of Ireland and particularly the Atlantic Islands [ASF: that is, of course, the predominantly Irish-speaking communities].

As early as the 20th of August 1924 the Meath Chronicle reported “a famine condition is imminent as bad as 1847”. Through the early autumn, local and national newspapers were littered with similar predictions of mass starvation.

By October, people in Connemara were reported to be surviving on seaweed and shell fish.

On New Year’s Eve 1924, a doctor was called to the home of Michael Kane who lived on Omey Island. Arriving at the house, the physician found “Kane was lying on the stone floor near a small turf fire. His emaciated face showed only too plainly the cause of his illness. The man was starving and too far-gone to benefit from medical attention. Two children, of three years and two years, respectively were lying by the fire trying to keep warm. They too were weak for want of nourishment.” Kane died two days later in Galway hospital…

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Raikoke is a stratovolcano, which means its slopes are built up from numerous layers of hardened lava and ash. It reaches 1,808 feet (551 m) above sea level, and prior to Raikoke's 1924 explosion, the volcano's last recorded activity was in 1778, according to the National Museum of Natural History's Global Volcanism Program.

Another image captured by satellite on June 22 shows dense concentrations of ash on the western half of the plume, while circulating storm winds over the Pacific tug at the plume and draw it eastward. Along with the ash, Raikoke's eruption also discharged a plume of sulfur dioxide that winds stirred into the stratosphere, Carn said.

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LpUIwWB4g4c

Stratospheric sulfur aerosols are sulfur-rich particles which exist in the stratosphere region of the Earth's atmosphere. The layer of the atmosphere in which they exist is known as the Junge layer, or simply the stratospheric aerosol layer. These particles consist of a mixture of sulfuric acid and water. They are created naturally, such as by photochemical decomposition of sulfur-containing gases, e.g. carbonyl sulfide. When present in high levels, e.g. after a strong volcanic eruption such as Mount Pinatubo, they produce a cooling effect, by reflecting sunlight, and by modifying clouds as they fall out of the stratosphere.[1] This cooling may persist for a few years before the particles fall out

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Deleted User wrote: »

Perfect storm perhaps, a few major volcanic eruptions combined with the lowest period of solar activity for 200 years, will be very interesting to see if this reverses the "global warming" caused by human activity.
It could cause such a cooling that climate scientists lose all credibility, despite the fact that there is an element of truth in human activity causing some warming.

Why are cosmic rays increasing? The short answer is “Solar Minimum.” Right now, the 11-year solar cycle is plunging into one of the deepest minima of the Space Age. The sun’s weakening magnetic field and flagging solar wind are not protecting us as usual from deep-space radiation. Earth to Sky balloon launches in multiple countries and US states show that this is a widespread phenomenon.

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wU1qg8HceGI

Prof Henrik Svensmark & Jacob Svensmark discuss the connection between cosmic rays, clouds and climate with the GWPF's Benny Peiser and Jonny Bairstow from Energy Live News.

Three main theories have been put forward to explain the solar–climate link, which are:

• solar ultraviolet changes
  
• the atmospheric-electric-field effect on cloud cover
  
• cloud changes produced by solar-modulated galactic cosmic rays (energetic particles originating from inter stellar space and ending in our atmosphere).

Significant efforts has gone into understanding possible mechanisms, and at the moment cosmic ray modulation of Earth’s cloud cover seems rather promising in explaining thesize of solar impact. This theory suggests that solar activity has had a significant impact on climate during the Holocene period. This understanding is in contrast to the official consensus from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, where it is estimated that the change in solar radiative forcing between 1750 and 2011 was around 0.05 W/m2,a value which is entirely negligible relative to the effect of greenhouse gases, estimated at around 2.3 W/m2.However, the existence of an atmospheric solar-amplification mechanism would have implications for the estimated climate sensitivity to carbon dioxide, suggesting that it is much lower than currently thought.

In summary, the impact of solar activity on climate is much larger than the official consensus suggests. This is therefore an important scientific question that needs to be addressed by the scientific community.

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New evidence suggests that high-energy particles from space known as galactic cosmic rays affect the Earth’s climate by increasing cloud cover, causing an “umbrella effect”.

When galactic cosmic rays increased during the Earth’s last geomagnetic reversal transition 780,000 years ago, the umbrella effect of low-cloud cover led to high atmospheric pressure in Siberia, causing the East Asian winter monsoon to become stronger. This is evidence that galactic cosmic rays influence changes in the Earth’s climate. The findings were made by a research team led by Professor Masayuki Hyodo (Research Center for Inland Seas, Kobe University) and published on June 28 in the online edition of Scientific Reports.

The Svensmark Effect is a hypothesis that galactic cosmic rays induce low cloud formation and influence the Earth’s climate. Tests based on recent meteorological observation data only show minute changes in the amounts of galactic cosmic rays and cloud cover, making it hard to prove this theory. However, during the last geomagnetic reversal transition, when the amount of galactic cosmic rays increased dramatically, there was also a large increase in cloud cover, so it should be possible to detect the impact of cosmic rays on climate at a higher sensitivity.

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