August 2020 Boards weather forecast contest

appledrop · 15-08-2020 9:22am

New Max, Markree Castle 25.2 14th Aug.

Gonzo · 15-08-2020 12:28pm

that temperature max of 25.2 is going to be tough to beat now as we are cooling down and a very autumnal second half of August is possible.

M.T. Cranium · 15-08-2020 6:00pm

Just have enough time to do this before heading out for the day ...

Second week update.

The IMT has reached a toasty 16.3 with the second week average 17.0 which was 1.6 above normal. High point likely to come soon, may calculate that daily for a while to check it out.

MAX and MIN as per previous reports in the thread, 25.2 I believe is the MAX and our MIN so far is almost certain to be outdone later.

PRC has fallen to 82% of normal, the second week was essentially dry in the northern and central counties, and near normal in the south, blending to 40% of normal overall.

SUN has reached 101% as the second week average was 114% (688/600).

I will update the bonus 24h rainfall standings later in the week as I expect a few contenders to show up but it looks like Malin Head, Cork and Sherkin are currently top three.

pauldry · 15-08-2020 6:59pm

Was 25c in Mount Dillon and 26.1c in back yard in Sligo but think Markree might have got 25c again. It was roasting here again today.

John mac · 16-08-2020 10:36am

25.2° again at Markee for 15th

edit 24.2....

appledrop · 16-08-2020 10:47am

John mac wrote: »

25.2° again at Markee for 15th

Looks like it was 25.2 at Mount Dillion yesterday rather than Markee.

appledrop · 16-08-2020 10:52am

Change to rainfall max:

1. Malin Head 37mm 4th Aug
2. Sherkin 35.6mm 13th Aug
3. Valentina 32.6mm 15th Aug

pauldry · 16-08-2020 12:58pm

Looks like the rainfall table could be busy in the coming days

Jpmarn · 18-08-2020 8:52am

Some notable rainfall totals for the 17th but does not make the top 3 for this month.
Moorepark 30.4mm
Shannon 26.7mm

M.T. Cranium · 18-08-2020 7:10pm

You have to admit, I chose a good bonus question this month.

appledrop · 18-08-2020 7:26pm

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

You have to admit, I chose a good bonus question this month.

Brilliant, I was watching Moore Park all yesterday thinking it would get into top three but fell at last hurdle not enough rain in evening time.

M.T. Cranium · 18-08-2020 10:31pm

With the models going into max chaos mode, any location stands a chance and the highest forecasts now looking good. Let's set this up from high to low forecast for further tracking:

BLIZZARD7 ____________ 58.0 (Dunsany 18th)

Rikand ________________50.0 (Mountdillon 24th)

Eon1208 ______________ 46.0 (Valentia 29th)

Joe Public _____________ 43.0 (Valentia 4th)

waterways ____________ 43.0 (Athenry 15th)

dacogawa _____________42.0 (Roches' Point 14th)

johnmac ______________ 42.0 (Newport 28th)

appledrop _____________ 41.0 (Newport 27th)

Pauldry _______________ 40.0 (Newport 31st)

NormaL _______________40.0 (climatology, date random)

__ actual to date _______ 37.0 (Malin Head 5th)

MrSkinner ____________ 37.0 (Valentia 4th)

Gonzo _______________ 37.0 (Dunsany 26th)

mickger844posts ______ 36.0 (Johnstown Castle 26th)

(main interest below this would be location and date) ...

Artane2002 ___________35.0 (Newport 21st)

M.T. Cranium _________ 35.0 (Dunsany 28th)

MrStonewall __________ 33.0 (Shannon 4th)

JPmarn ______________ 32.5 (Valentia 16th)

sryanbruen ___________32.0 (Newport 25th)

sunflower3 ___________ 31.0 (Newport 8th)

Kindred Spirit _________30.0 (Valentia 17th)

Adam240610 _________ 29.0 (Valentia 27th)

dasa29 ______________ 25.0 (Malin Head 18th)

DOCARCH ____________23.6 (Valentia 15th)

Tae laidir _____________23.0 (Mace Head 5th)

Bsal _________________22.0 (Gurteen 13th)

Western Storm ________22.0 (Malin Head 22nd)

200motels ___________ 20.0 (Dublin 22nd)

pauldry · 18-08-2020 10:32pm

Yes even the top 3 mightnt be in the top 3 by Saturday

M.T. Cranium · 19-08-2020 6:13pm

Storm Ellen will have her say but rainfalls will be divided between 19th and 20th in many cases. The 24h totals might reach 50 mm (for example Moorepark, Athenry, Gurteen) but could see them about equally split between the days.

appledrop · 20-08-2020 8:45am

appledrop wrote: »

Change to rainfall max:

1. Malin Head 37mm 4th Aug
2. Sherkin 35.6mm 13th Aug
3. Valentina 32.6mm 15th Aug

So after last night's rain slight change. Valentina remains 3rd but its at value of 34.4mm on 19th August.

Some amount of rainfall in Cork overall but as MT says spilt between the days.

M.T. Cranium · 22-08-2020 3:36pm

After three weeks ...

IMT on 16.4 with the third week average 16.9, 1.8 above normal.

MAX and MIN remain 25.2 and some value we won't need to remember by the looks of charts.

PRC now up to 142% with the third week very wet (262% of normal).

SUN has slumped to 91% with the fourth week 71.5% of normal (429/600).

The max rain bonus tracking can be seen in the previous post in terms of the top three amounts so far.

Rikand · 24-08-2020 11:55pm

Valentia doing her best to win the 24th for me

appledrop · 25-08-2020 4:51am

Rikand wrote: »

Valentia doing her best to win the 24th for me

Unbelievable amount of rain falling in Valentina since early yesterday evening. 12mm at 11pm + 15mm in another.

Unfortunately for you though a bit like last storm looks like high overall total is spilt between 2 days.

M.T. Cranium · 25-08-2020 7:44am

Newport may surprise as a lot of rain seems to be concentrated around the northwest portions of the low's central structure. But locations further east will at least get all of their Francis rainfall on one day (today), whether it manages to push into the top three remains to be seen.

appledrop · 25-08-2020 8:37am

Well what a day all change now at top!

1. Valentia 52mm 24th

2.Roches Point 41.5mm 24th
3. Malin Head 37mm 4th

Cork Airport also nearly made it into top 3.

Well done Rikand you got the date + pretty much the amount as well spot on!

M.T. Cranium · 25-08-2020 8:51am

Looks like they included midnight to 0100h in the total, so their "day" must be 00z to 00z. (with the summer time GMT or UTC or z runs an hour behind civil time). Otherwise no way do the hourlies add up to those amounts.

Glad it wasn't split up as badly as it might have been. Would still keep an eye on Mayo as there may be persistent rain there.

pauldry · 25-08-2020 11:14am

21mm so far in Newport and down for the day

Tae laidir · 25-08-2020 1:57pm

MT, do ye have the same or similar expression 'down for the day'?

appledrop · 25-08-2020 2:12pm

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Looks like they included midnight to 0100h in the total, so their "day" must be 00z to 00z. (with the summer time GMT or UTC or z runs an hour behind civil time). Otherwise no way do the hourlies add up to those amounts.

Glad it wasn't split up as badly as it might have been. Would still keep an eye on Mayo as there may be persistent rain there.

Thats definitely what they did as I was watching Valentina + only in mid 30mm by 11pm so obviously they counted 15mm at 00+ in 24th.

Jpmarn · 25-08-2020 4:03pm

Bel mullet has over 40mm of rain so far today 25th.

appledrop · 25-08-2020 4:08pm

Jpmarn wrote: »

Bel mullet has over 40mm of rain so far today 25th.[/QUOTE

One to watch so to see if it can take top spot!

I thought no way 52mm from yesterday could be beaten but sure just another beautiful summers day in Ireland!

M.T. Cranium · 25-08-2020 6:37pm

The way the contest will be scored, it won't matter if Belmullet breaks into the top three because nobody picked it as their location. Scoring will then go to the top three other than Belmullet. Where it might influence scoring is the climatology factor for NormaL, and Con Sensus would score one less also.

Here's a factoid ... the total rainfall from Francis throughout the eleven-station grid appears to be heading for 300 mm or higher. That's the equivalent of four locations having a normal August rainfall. It will therefore add about 35-40 per cent to the monthly PRC and no doubt week four report will show us near 200% since there's another soaker for the south due in by end of the week.

I could pretty much score PRC now as some version of the mercy rule will be needed, just not sure yet if some high forecast might snag the coveted right to reduce the boost (which would likely mean top scores would be 15, 8,8,7,7, etc). Will work on that question.

appledrop · 26-08-2020 9:08am

1. Valentia 52mm 24th

2.Roches Point 41.5mm 24th
3.Belmullet 41.4mm 25th

4. Malin Head 37mm 4th

I've listed 1-4 to take into account what MT said about no one having Belmullet

M.T. Cranium · 28-08-2020 7:16am

Pauldry had 170% and dacogawa 159% for their precip forecasts. Otherwise nobody went above 125% and our consensus was actually 95%. I think Pauldry has some chance of applying the reduced boost to the rest of us although dacogawa's reduction would be slight being that close. Basically the reduction means you only get half the usual boost from minimum progression, which for most other than dacogawa would mean an average of zero and the boosted score (since most raw scores are all going to be zero if 170% is close to the target). In fact it's more likely to exceed than fall short, the qualifying range would be 163 to 177 per cent. (raw score has to be 13/15 or higher to apply the reduced boost).

appledrop · 29-08-2020 3:59pm

I think we will get our minimum temperature this evening.

Very cold out there today.

appledrop · 29-08-2020 3:59pm

I think we will get our minimum temperature this evening.

Very cold out there today.

M.T. Cranium · 29-08-2020 7:33pm

After four weeks ...

IMT on 16.0, fourth week average was 14.4 which is 0.4 below normal for the week.This will likely lose 0.1 a day to end, so 15.7 looks like the most probable finish.

MAX is 25.2 and MIN will probably be set tonight or Sunday night.

PRC now at 169% with the fourth week 250% of normal. Not likely to add much now, could drift back down to around 160% which would allow Dacogawa to apply the hurt (won't reduce Pauldry's score much but rest of field will lose out). In fact this is generally certain as the finish will be within the zone required for one of them (at 159 and 170 per cent) so rest of us can expect reduced boosted scores.

SUN is down to 83% as a result of a cloudy week a little below 60% (Dublin data are incomplete in the weekly summary). This may recover slightly but will end up close to 85%.

Bonus tracking is probably done with a weak system indicated for Monday.

appledrop · 30-08-2020 10:16am

Min temperature recorded of 4.5 at Casement yesterday.

Is that just up to 12 midnight?

Could be lower to come we will have to keep on eye on it.

pauldry · 30-08-2020 11:28am

3.5c in Casement as low as I see so far

DOCARCH · 31-08-2020 8:34am

I see 2c reported at Mount Dillon at 7am. Probably have to wait until tomorrow to see what confirmed min. temp for the month is.

pauldry · 31-08-2020 9:40am

It was also 2c at 6am so could be below 2c even

appledrop · 31-08-2020 9:42am

Lowest min at present is 3.1at Dunsany on 30th Aug.

However as you all said did get lower over night but will probably have to wait until tomorrow for last nights temperatures.

DOCARCH · 01-09-2020 8:21am

Low of 1.6c at Mount Dillon yesterday.

M.T. Cranium · 01-09-2020 1:23pm

The IMT took quite a hit from the cool spell, dropping to 15.5 as a final value. The average for 29-31 was about 12.5 so it was falling by more than 0.1 each day, more like 0.15.

I will wait for the MS to confirm other data, that should appear tomorrow morning, not much additional PRC so I expect that may fall somewhere around 160%, sunshine looks to have stayed put in low 80s but will check their numbers for the exact amount.

Not long to wait for the September bonus to be settled.

M.T. Cranium · 02-09-2020 12:25pm

MS confirms these values for scoring the August contest ...

IMT 15.5 MAX 25.2 MIN 1.6 PRC 151% SUN 83%

FORECASTER _______ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN__Bonus ___ TOTAL

Pauldry ____________25 _ 13 _ 10 _ 14 _ 07 ___ 4 0 3 _____ 76

Appledrop __________24 _ 13 _ 17 _ 01 _ 09 ___ 4 0 3 _____ 71

Jpmarn ____________21 _ 09 _ 15 _ 12 _ 06 ___ 2 3 2 1 ____71

Rikand _____ (-2) ___ 20 _ 20 _ 20 _ 02 _ 03 __ 4 0 3 1_73-2=71

dasa29 ____________ 20 _ 14 _ 12 __13 _ 07 ___ 1 1 2 _____70

Normal ____________21 _ 09 _ 18 _ 05 _ 07 ___ 4 3 2 1 ___ 70

DOCARCH__________ 20 _ 11 _ 14 _ 11 _ 06 ___ 1 3 2 _____ 68

Sunflower3 _________24 _ 20 _ 03 _ 10 _ 08 ___ 2 0 1 _____ 68

Bsal ______________ 24 _ 10 _ 10 _ 10 _ 08 ___ 1 0 2 _____ 65

MrSkinner __________23 _ 20 _ 01 _ 03 _ 08 ___ 3 3 1 _____ 62

Dacogawa _________ 22 _ 00 _ 09 _ 15 _ 07 ___ 4 2 2 1 ____ 62

waterways _________ 23 _ 02 _ 08 _ 11 _ 07 ___ 4 0 2 _____ 57

Eon1208 _____(-8) __21 _ 20 _ 05 _ 02 _ 05 ___ 4 3 3 2_65-8=57

mickger844posts_(-3)_20 _ 20 _ 00 _ 02 _ 08 ___ 3 0 3 _56-3=53

Kindred Spirit _______ 20 _ 04 _ 03 _ 11 _ 08 ___ 2 3 2 _____ 53

john mac ___________20 _ 13 _ 02 _ 03 _ 06 ___ 4 0 3 _____ 51

___ Con Sensus _____ 22 _ 04 _ 07 _ 03 _ 06 ___ 2 3 2 _____ 49

WesternStorm ______ 25 _ 02 _ 08 _ 03 _ 05 ___ 1 1 3 _____ 48

Joe Public___________17 _ 01 _ 08 _ 05 _ 07 ___ 4 3 1 1 ____47

M.T. Cranium _______ 20 _ 01 _ 04 _ 08 _ 06 ___ 2 0 3 _____ 44

200motels__________ 20 _ 10 _ 03 _ 01 _ 05 ___ 1 0 3 _____ 43

Mrstonewall _________13 _ 02 _ 16 _ 03 _ 06 ___ 2 0 1 _____ 43

Artane2002 _________20 _ 01 _ 07 _ 05 _ 04 ___ 2 0 3 _____ 42

Adam240610 _______ 19 _ 06 _ 03 _ 02 _ 00 ___ 1 3 3 _____ 37

Tae laidir ___________18 _ 04 _ 04 _ 02 _ 05 ___ 1 0 1 _____ 35

sryanbruen _________ 19 _ 01 _ 03 _ 02 _ 05 ___ 2 0 3 _____ 35

BLIZZARD7 ____ (-4) _17 _ 00 _ 08 _ 02 _ 00 ___ 4 0 2 _33-4=29

Gonzo______ (-10) __ 21 _ 02 _ 04 _ 00 _ 02 ___ 3 0 3_35-10=25

_________________________________________________

Notes: small boosts were given to MAX and MIN as fewer than 2/3 of scores were greater than zero, but in both cases the boosts were reduced as there were several high raw scores. The PRC boost was more generous than expected, the official number came in 1% lower than the range where a reduced boost would be justified, and in any case the month was starting to look like an automatic discard for most if I reduced all of the boosts. The bonus was scored rather generously in three groups (4, 3, 3 max points) and one superbonus of 2 points was awarded, several of 1 point. For location, the scores were 3 for Valentia, 2 for Roches Point and 1 for Malin Head, 0 for any other location. For dates, I gave the predictions 21st-31st 3 points, 11th-20th 2 and 1st-10th 1. For amount, 40+ was worth 4, 35.1-39.9 got 3, 30.0-35.0 2, the rest 1.

Gonzo, I scored your forecast and reduced it by 10 for the archives, but the actual penalty there would be more than the score itself.

Well done to five who got scores into the 70s, led by Pauldry.

Annual scoring update to follow, probably not right away, closer to this evening perhaps.

==================================================

(actual forecasts)

FORECASTER _______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ Max rain locn date

Mrstonewall _________16.7 _ 27.4 _ 2.3 _ 090 _ 105 ___ 33.0 Shannon 4th

BLIZZARD7 ____ (-4) _16.3 _ 29.5 _ 3.3 _ 080 _ 135 ___ 58.0 Dunsany 18th

Joe Public___________16.3 _ 28.3 _ 3.3 _ 099 _ 099 ___ 43.0 Valentia 4th

Tae laidir ___________16.2 _ 27.0 _ 3.7 _ 082 _ 109 ___ 23.0 Mace Head 5th

sryanbruen _________ 16.1 _ 28.4 _ 4.1 _ 080 _ 110 ___ 32.0 Newport 25th

Adam240610 _______ 16.1 _ 26.8 _ 4.0 _ 080 _ 144 ___ 29.0 Valentia 27th

M.T. Cranium _______ 16.0 _ 27.5 _ 3.5 _ 105 _ 102 ___ 35.0 Dunsany 28th

Artane2002 _________16.0 _ 27.8 _ 3.3 _ 100 _ 113 ___ 35.0 Newport 21st

200motels__________ 16.0 _ 26.4 _ 3.9 _ 077 _ 106 ___ 20.0 Dublin Airport 22nd

mickger844posts_(-3)_16.0 _ 25.4 _ 4.9 _ 084 _ 095 ___ 36.0 Johnstown Castle 26th

Jpmarn ____________ 15.9 _ 26.5 _ 2.5 _ 120 _ 105 ___ 32.5 Valentia 16th

Eon1208 _____ (-8) __ 15.9 _ 25.2 _ 3.4 _ 089 _ 106 ___ 46.0 Valentia 29th

Dacogawa __________ 15.8 _ 29.2 _ 3.1 _ 159 _ 096 ___ 42.0 Roches Point 14th

Con Sensus _________ 15.8 _ 27.0 _ 3.3 _ 095 _ 102 ___ 35.0 (see info below)

waterways __________15.7 _ 27.3 _ 3.2 _ 116 _ 097 ___ 43.0 Athenry 15th

Bsal _______________15.6 _ 26.4 _ 3.1 _ 110 _ 093 ___ 22.0 Gurteen 13th

Sunflower3 _________ 15.6 _ 25.1 _ 3.6 _ 110 _ 095 ___ 31.0 Newport 8th

WesternStorm _______15.5 _ 27.2 _ 3.2 _ 090 _ 106 ___ 22.0 Malin Head 22nd

Pauldry ____________ 15.5 _ 26.1 _ 3.1 _ 170 _ 100 ___ 40.0 Newport 31st

Appledrop __________ 15.4 _ 26.1 _ 2.5 _ 080 _ 090 ___ 41.0 Newport 27th

MrSkinner __________ 15.3 _ 25.3 _ 4.3 _ 093 _ 093 ___ 37.0 Valentia 4th

Normal _____________15.1 _ 26.5 _ 2.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 40.0 (loc'n by climat, date random)

Kindred Spirit ________15.0 _ 27.0 _ 3.5 _ 115 _ 095 ___ 30.0 Valentia 17th

DOCARCH___________ 15.0 _ 26.3 _ 2.8 _ 115 _ 103 ___ 23.6 Valentia 15th

john mac ___________ 15.0 _ 26.1 _ 3.9 _ 095 _ 102 ___ 42.0 Newport 26th

dasa29 _____________15.0 _ 26.0 _ 3.0 __125 _100 ___ 25.0 Malin Head 18th

Rikand _____ (-2) ____15.0 _ 25.0 _ 1.5 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 50.0 Mount Dillon 24th

_________________________________________________

appledrop · 02-09-2020 12:51pm

Thanks M. T well done pauldry.

Now I'm probably going to do myself out of points here but I think Rikand should have got extra points over rest of us on Bonus question because by some miracle he/she actually managed to predict the exact date of highest rainfall on 24th Aug + nearly exact amount at 50mm.

I know its up to you M.T but just my thoughts.

Jpmarn · 02-09-2020 4:08pm

appledrop wrote: »

Thanks M. T well done pauldry.

Now I'm probably going to do myself out of points here but I think Rikand should have got extra points over rest of us on Bonus question because by some miracle he/she actually managed to predict the exact date of highest rainfall on 24th Aug + nearly exact amount at 50mm.

I know its up to you M.T but just my thoughts.

It is just totally a guessing game with a little bit of education attached to it. You would be lucky to get all the figures and dates right. I would look up some model runs to get some idea what the weather is like for the coming month but there is a lot of guesswork involved.

M.T. Cranium · 02-09-2020 4:09pm

Annual scoring update January to August 2020

rank _ FORECASTER ______ Jan _Feb _Mar _Apr _May _Jun _Jul _Aug __TOTAL___ Best 7/8 (rank)

(01)_(01)__ NormaL _______ 70 _ 50 _ 73 _ 55 _ 52 _ 78 _ 59 _ 70 __ 507 ____ 457 (02)

01_(03) _Pauldry __________ 63 _ 36 _ 58 _ 69 _ 46 _ 79 _ 77 _ 76 __ 504 ____ 468 (01)

t02_(t01)_ Mrskinner _______ 86 _ 54 _ 72 _ 61 _ 60 _ 49 _ 49 _ 62 __ 493 ____ 444 (03)

t02_(05)_Jpmarn __________ 86 _ 51 _ 50 _ 61 _ 39 _ 62 _ 73 _ 71 __ 493 ____ 454 (02)

(04)_(01)___ Con Sensus ___ 70 _ 62 _ 59 _ 69 _ 57 _ 64 _ 58 _ 49 __ 488 ____ 439 (04)

04_(04)_Dacogawa ________ 73 _ 64 _ 53 _ 51 _ 62 _ 59 _ 63 _ 62 __ 487 ____ 436 (04)

05_(t07)_DOCARCH ________58 _ 61 _ 62 _ 50 _ 54 _ 69 _ 62 _ 68 __ 484 ____ 434 (05)

06_(t07)_ Kindred Spirit_____61 _ 63 _ 71 _ 71 _ 60 _ 53 _ 37 _ 53 __ 469 ____ 432 (06)

t07_(t01) _sryanbruen ______47 _ 58 _ 88 _ 71 _ 43 _ 54 _ 70 _ 35 __ 466 ____ 431 (07)

t07_(10)_mickger844posts __ 55 _ 63 _ 60 _ 48 _ 74 _ 59 _ 54 _ 53 __ 466 ____ 418 (11t)

09_(12)_ Dasa29 __________48 _ 70 _ 55 _ 38 _ 53 _ 63 _ 66 _ 70 __ 463 ____ 425 (08t)

10_(t07) _Artane2002 ______56 _ 63 _ 65 _ 69 _ 52 _ 50 _ 61 _ 42 __ 458 ____ 416 (13)

11_(t13)_ Sunflower3 ______ 68 _ 60 _ 50 _ 57 _ 51 _ 71 _ 32 _ 68 __ 457 ____ 425 (08t)

12_(06) _ Adam240610 _____62 _ 38 _ 58 _ 69 _ 47 _ 80 _ 64 _ 37 __ 455 ____ 418 (11t)

13_(t13)_Bsal ____________ 62 _ 54 _ 57 _ 52 _ 48 _ 49 _ 67 _ 65 __ 454 ____ 406 (15)

14_(11)_M.T. Cranium _____ 69 _ 59 _ 60 _ 51 _ 35 _ 75 _ 46 _ 44 __ 439 ____ 404 (16)

15_(15) _john mac ________ 64 _ 46 _ 52 _ 61 _ 59 _ 57 _ 41 _ 51 __ 431 ____ 390 (18)

16_(18)_Rikand ___________68 _ 38 _ 64 _ 73 _ 66 _ 41 _ --- _ 71 __ 421 ____ 421 (10)

17_(16)_200motels ________47 _ --- _ 75 _ 61 _ 60 _ 65 _ 60 _ 43 __ 411 ____ 411 (14)

18_(17)_Joe Public ________ 70 _ 65 _ 42 _ 39 _ 78 _ 59 _ --- _ 47 __ 400 ____ 400 (17)

19_(19) _Tae laidir ________ 67 _ 49 _ 48 _ 49 _ 53 _ 45 _ 37 _ 35 __ 383 ____ 348 (20)

20_(20) _waterways _______ --- _ 54 _ 42 _ 44 _ 67 _ 42 _ 63 _ 57 __ 369 ____ 369 (19)

21_(21) _BLIZZARD7 _______66 _ 36 _ 47 _ 44 _ 53 _ 15 _ --- _ 29 __ 290 ____ 290 (21)

22_(22)_Appledrop ________ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 47 _ 80 _ 71 __198

23 _(t24)_Mr Stonewall _____ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 34 _ 50 _ --- _ 43 __127

24_(26)_WesternStorm _____ 54 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 20 _ 48 __122

25 _(t24)_Gonzo __________ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 84 _ 25 __109

26 _(28) _Eon1208 ________ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 50 _ 57 __ 107

26_(23)_Tazio ____________ --- _ --- _ --- _ 68 _ --- _ 35 _ --- _ --- __103

27_(27)_JCXBXC __________ 58 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ ----__ 58

29_(29)_esposito __________49 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ ----__ 49

=================================================

Congrats to Pauldry who has moved into top position in both contests (overall score, best 7/8). MrSkinner drops to tied second overall and third in best 7/8, while JPmarn moves into that tie for second and holds second also in the best 7/8. These three have edged ahead of perpetual nemesis Con Sensus but this year it's NormaL doing the business despite being stuck with forecasts out of an internet file. Pauldry has managed to move past NormaL in the best 7/8, which will become best 7/9 after September, in order to set us up for the race to best 10/12 or "Boards Award" (for newbies, this is considered the main contest, the total score for 12 is so lowly that it has my name attached to it, as in MTC Award). So far nobody has ever been awarded anything but that's the nature of the game.

By the way, I did add one extra superbonus point to Rikand but that's about all I could do under the rules, these things tend to even out over time however.

M.T. Cranium · 02-09-2020 4:20pm

Tae laidir wrote: »

MT, do ye have the same or similar expression 'down for the day'?

Hey, I missed seeing this post in real time, so anyway, as I'm not sure what the expression means after reading Pauldry's post about 21 mm rain at Newport, I don't know if we have something similar, in my mind "down for the day" means taking a rest, as in "that's all I plan to do, I'm down for the day."

M.T. Cranium · 02-09-2020 9:06pm

Four seasons contest update -- summer portion

The summer portion of the contest is shown with total scores and points following the points from two earlier seasons, the order is determined by annual points totals rather than this past season itself. Scores in brackets for summer were lower than 10th place and received no contest points.

Points for this contest are 10 for top seasonal score, then 7, 6, 5 etc down to 1 for 8th, 9th and 10th places. Then Con Sensus and NormaL are awarded the points they would have if playing the contest but no scores lower than theirs are affected.

FORECASTER ___ winter pts _ spring pts ___ Total score (summer), pts ___ TOTAL

MrSkinner ________ 10 _______5 __________(160)_________-- _________ 15

JPmarn ____________7 _______-- __________206 _________ 7 _________ 14

Pauldry ___________ -- _______ 1 _________ 232 _________10 _________ 11

Rikand ___________ -- _______ 10 ________ (112 2mo) _____ -- ________ 10

___ Con Sensus _____ 6 _______ 2 _________ 171 _________ 1 __________9

___ NormaL ________ 1 _______ 1 _________ 207 _________ 7 __________9

mickger844posts ____ 6_______ 2 __________(166) ________ -- _________ 8

Artane2002 ________ 5 _______ 3 _________(153)_________ -- __________8

sryanbruen ________-- _______ 7 _________ (159) ________ -- __________ 7

200motels ________ -- _______ 6 __________ 168 _________ 1 __________ 7

DOCARCH_________-- _______ -- __________ 199 _________ 6 __________ 6

dasa29 ___________-- _______ -- __________ 199 _________ 6 __________ 6

dacogawa __________2 _______ -- _________ 184 _________ 3 __________ 5

sunflower3 _________4 _______ -- __________171 _________ 1 __________ 5

Kindred Spirit______ -- _______ 4 __________(143) ________ -- __________ 4

Appledrop _________-- ______ -- ___________198 _________ 4 __________ 4

Adam240610 _______-- _______ 1 __________181 _________ 2 __________ 3

Bsal ______________ 1 _______ -- _________ 181 _________ 2 __________ 3

Joe Public __________3 _______ -- _________(106 2mo) ____ -- __________ 3

John mac __________ 1 _______ 1 _________ (149) ________ -- __________2

Tae laidir __________ 1 _______ -- __________(117) _______ -- __________ 1

_____________________________________________________________

No four seasons points yet, totals for summer: MTC 165, waterways 162 (lowest score to qualify 168)

... Quite a few still in the hunt going into autumn, the final quarter of this contest.

Rikand · 03-09-2020 12:02am

appledrop wrote: »

Thanks M. T well done pauldry.

Now I'm probably going to do myself out of points here but I think Rikand should have got extra points over rest of us on Bonus question because by some miracle he/she actually managed to predict the exact date of highest rainfall on 24th Aug + nearly exact amount at 50mm.

I know its up to you M.T but just my thoughts.

Thats for trying, but seeing as how I also nailed the Max and the Min for the month, its not fair to give me too many points. I'm already too elite as it is

August 2020 Boards weather forecast contest

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