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August 2020 Boards weather forecast contest

  • 29-07-2020 3:58pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 13,201 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    1. Predict the IMT, mean temperature at five locations in Ireland (Claremorris, Casement, Mullingar, Oak Park, Shannon) for August, 2020. The 1981-2010 "normal" value is 15.1 deg C.

    2. Predict the MAX temperature at any regularly reporting Met-E station as reported in the Monthly Summary (and daily in the "yesterday's weather" section of their website), during August.

    3. Predict the MIN temperature during August (see 2 above for overview).

    4. Predict the PRC (rainfall at this time of year) as a percentage of normal values (1981-2010) at eleven locations, namely Ballyhaise, Cork, Malin Head, Belmullet, Cork, Johnstown Castle, and the five locations for the IMT (section 1 above), during August.

    5. Predict the SUN (sunshine) as a percentage of normal values (1981-2010) at six locations, Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Shannon, Cork and Valentia, during August.

    6. BONUS -- Predict the highest daily rainfall to be reported in the daily weather summaries at the 25 regular locations that appear in "yesterday's weather" on the met.ie website. Give the amount, date and location (most of the scoring will be based on the amount). superbonus of 1 or 2 available.

    Will hold off on my own forecast as I am waiting to see if models are catching a warming trend.

    Q -- what would you have if you combined July and August?

    A -- Augly.


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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 12,557 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    sryanbruen __________ 16.1 _ 28.4 _ 4.1 _ 80 _ 110 ___ 32mm Newport, 25th

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 24 WesternStorm


    WesternStorm __________ 15.5 _ 27.2 _ 3.2 _ 90 _ 106 ___ 22mm Malin Head, 22nd


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,569 ✭✭✭ 200motels


    200motels___________ 16.0 _ 26.4 _ 3.9 _ 77 _ 106 ___ 2mm Dublin Airport 22th


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,852 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Pauldry __________ 15.5 _ 26.1 _ 3.1 _ 170 _ 100___ 40mm Newport 31st


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,860 ✭✭✭ Artane2002


    Artane2002 __________ 16.0 _ 27.8 _ 3.3 _ 100 _ 113 ___ 35mm Newport, 21st


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,745 ✭✭✭ Joe Public


    Joe Public_________ 16.3 _ 28.3 _ 3.3 _ 99 _ 99 ___ 43mm Valentia 4th


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,714 ✭✭✭ Bsal


    Bsal __________ 15.6 _ 26.4 _ 3.1 _ 110 _ 93 ___ 22mm Gurteen, 13th


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,111 Mod ✭✭✭✭ DOCARCH


    DOCARCH__________ 15.0 _ 26.3 _ 2.8 _ 115 _ 103 _ 23.6mm Valentia 15th


  • Registered Users Posts: 752 ✭✭✭ mr.stonewall


    Mrstonewall_________ 16.7__27.4__2.3__90__105__33mm Shannon 4th


  • Registered Users Posts: 165 ✭✭ sunflower3


    Sunflower3 __________ 15.6 _ 25.1 _ 3.6 _ 110 _ 95 ___ 31mm Newport, 8th


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  • Registered Users Posts: 623 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Tae laidir __________ 16.2 _ 27.0 _ 3.7 _ 82 _ 109 ___ 23mm Mace Head, 5th


  • Registered Users Posts: 317 ✭✭ kindredspirit


    Kindred Spirit ___ 15.0 ___ 27.0 ___ 3.5 ___ 115 ___ 95 ___ 30mm. 17th. Valentia.


  • Registered Users Posts: 351 ✭✭ waterways


    waterways _____________ 15.7 _ 27.3 _ 3.2 _ 116 _ 97 ___ 43mm Athenry 15th


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,773 ✭✭✭ dacogawa


    Dacogawa __________ 15.8 _ 29.2 _ 3.1 _ 159 _ 96 ___ 42mm Roches Point 14th


  • Registered Users Posts: 458 ✭✭ dasa29


    dasa29 ___ 15.0 ___ 26.0 ___ 3.0 ___ 125 ___ 100 ___ 25mm. 18th. Malin Head.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,409 ✭✭✭ Jpmarn


    Jpmarn _______ 15.9_ 26.5 _ 2.5 _ 120 _ 105 ___ 32.5 Valentia 16th.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,201 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    MTC _________ 16.0 _ 27.5 _ 3.5 _ 105 _ 102 ___ 35.0 mm 28th Dunsany

    Normal _______15.1 _ 27.0 _ 2.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 40.0 mm (date random, loc'n by climat)


  • Registered Users Posts: 360 ✭✭ mrskinner


    Skinner_____15.3_____25.3_____4.3_____93_____93_____37mm Valentia 4th


  • Registered Users Posts: 748 ✭✭✭ adam240610


    Adam240610 16.1__26.8__4.0__80__144__29mm Valentia


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,619 ✭✭✭ appledrop


    Appledrop 15.4____26.1__2.5_80%__90%__41mm Newport Furnace 27th


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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,996 ✭✭✭ John mac


    john mac__________ 15.0 _ 26.1 _ 3.9 _ 95 _ 102 ___ 42mm Newport, 26th

    Jugst


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,564 ✭✭✭✭ Rikand


    I had the August thread open a couple of days ago and i said, I must enter that on time this time around....

    Rikand ____ 15.0 ____ 25.0 ____ 1.5 ____ 90 ____ 120 _____ 50 mm Mount Dillon 24th


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,406 Mod ✭✭✭✭ mickger844posts


    mickger844posts___________ 16.0 _ 25.4 _ 4.9 _ 84_ 95 ___ 36mm Johnstown Castle 26th


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,894 ✭✭✭ BLIZZARD7


    BLIZZARD7 _________ 16.3 _ 29.5_ 3.3 _ 80 _ 135 ___ 58.00 mm 18th Dunsany


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,201 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    12.4 mm Finner Camp on 1st. (will update daily, if anyone wants to assist, great but post ongoing 2nd and 3rd highest values as this will be the plan -- assuming this is at most a weak candidate for 3rd place).

    Will have a table of forecasts up by tomorrow.


  • Registered Users Posts: 281 ✭✭ eon1208


    15.9, 25.2, 3.4, 89%, 106%, 46mm - 29th Aug. - Valentia.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,201 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Table of forecasts for August, 2020


    FORECASTER _______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ Max rain locn date


    Mrstonewall _________16.7 _ 27.4 _ 2.3 _ 090 _ 105 ___ 33.0 Shannon 4th

    BLIZZARD7 ____ (-4) _16.3 _ 29.5 _ 3.3 _ 080 _ 135 ___ 58.0 Dunsany 18th

    Joe Public___________16.3 _ 28.3 _ 3.3 _ 099 _ 099 ___ 43.0 Valentia 4th

    Tae laidir ___________16.2 _ 27.0 _ 3.7 _ 082 _ 109 ___ 23.0 Mace Head 5th

    sryanbruen _________ 16.1 _ 28.4 _ 4.1 _ 080 _ 110 ___ 32.0 Newport 25th

    Adam240610 _______ 16.1 _ 26.8 _ 4.0 _ 080 _ 144 ___ 29.0 Valentia 27th

    M.T. Cranium _______ 16.0 _ 27.5 _ 3.5 _ 105 _ 102 ___ 35.0 Dunsany 28th

    Artane2002 _________16.0 _ 27.8 _ 3.3 _ 100 _ 113 ___ 35.0 Newport 21st

    200motels__________ 16.0 _ 26.4 _ 3.9 _ 077 _ 106 ___ 20.0 Dublin Airport 22nd

    mickger844posts_(-3)_16.0 _ 25.4 _ 4.9 _ 084 _ 095 ___ 36.0 Johnstown Castle 26th

    Jpmarn ____________ 15.9 _ 26.5 _ 2.5 _ 120 _ 105 ___ 32.5 Valentia 16th

    Eon1208 _____ (-8) __ 15.9 _ 25.2 _ 3.4 _ 089 _ 106 ___ 46.0 Valentia 29th

    Dacogawa __________ 15.8 _ 29.2 _ 3.1 _ 159 _ 096 ___ 42.0 Roches Point 14th


    Con Sensus _________ 15.8 _ 27.0 _ 3.3 _ 095 _ 102 ___ 35.0 (see info below)


    waterways __________15.7 _ 27.3 _ 3.2 _ 116 _ 097 ___ 43.0 Athenry 15th

    Bsal _______________15.6 _ 26.4 _ 3.1 _ 110 _ 093 ___ 22.0 Gurteen 13th

    Sunflower3 _________ 15.6 _ 25.1 _ 3.6 _ 110 _ 095 ___ 31.0 Newport 8th

    WesternStorm _______15.5 _ 27.2 _ 3.2 _ 090 _ 106 ___ 22.0 Malin Head 22nd

    Pauldry ____________ 15.5 _ 26.1 _ 3.1 _ 170 _ 100 ___ 40.0 Newport 31st

    Appledrop __________ 15.4 _ 26.1 _ 2.5 _ 080 _ 090 ___ 41.0 Newport 27th

    MrSkinner __________ 15.3 _ 25.3 _ 4.3 _ 093 _ 093 ___ 37.0 Valentia 4th


    Normal _____________15.1 _ 26.5 _ 2.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 40.0 (loc'n by climat, date random)


    Kindred Spirit ________15.0 _ 27.0 _ 3.5 _ 115 _ 095 ___ 30.0 Valentia 17th

    DOCARCH___________ 15.0 _ 26.3 _ 2.8 _ 115 _ 103 ___ 23.6 Valentia 15th

    john mac ___________ 15.0 _ 26.1 _ 3.9 _ 095 _ 102 ___ 42.0 Newport 26th

    dasa29 _____________15.0 _ 26.0 _ 3.0 __125 _100 ___ 25.0 Malin Head 18th

    Rikand _____ (-2) ____15.0 _ 25.0 _ 1.5 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 50.0 Mount Dillon 24th

    _________________________________________________

    For the maximum 24h rainfall, we had these locations predicted:

    Valentia _________7

    Newport _________6

    Malin Head _______2

    Dunsany ________ 2

    Shannon ________ 1

    Johnstown Castle _ 1

    Roches' Point _____1

    Athenry _________1

    Mace Head _______1

    Gurteen _________ 1

    Dublin ___________1

    Mountdillon _______1

    Not selected: Cork, Moorepark, Sherkin Is, Oak Park, Casement, Phoenix Park, Mullingar, Claremorris, Knock, Belmullet, Markree, Finner, Ballyhaise.

    Con Sensus gets 3 points if location is Newport or Valentia, 2 points if Malin Head or Dunsany, 1 point if any of the other locations chosen (by one forecaster) and zero if none of the chosen locations. Normal scores location points by climatology (top third of August precip averages score 3, middle third score 2, bottom third score 1).

    The date selections are essentially random and scattered through the month with a bias towards the second half (probably in part due to fairly dry looking maps on model runs past few days in first half), the dates selected are

    4, 4, 4, 5, 8, 13, 14, 15, 15, 16, 17, 18, 18, 21, 22, 22, 24, 25, 26, 26, 27, 27, 28, 29, 31 (12/25 selected last third)

    but Con will score 3 for any actual date selected by more than one, 2 for any other date, and 1 for any date in the second half of the month if not selected.

    Note -- cleared up two issues with forecasts and table is amended as per the information provided. Thanks.


    Eon1208, your late penalty is still a bit short of what a regular entrant would get for 2d +5h but as I said last month, will be lenient since you are new to contest and won't be a factor in the final annual standings from starting out in July. Just FYI the late penalties are 1 point per six hours (or portion) for the first 36 hours then 1 point per hour thereafter. So in your case, that would normally be 17 points.

    Looks like we have all 21 of the regular entrants plus four either part-time or new, welcome back in each case, and good luck everyone.


  • Registered Users Posts: 748 ✭✭✭ adam240610


    adam240610 wrote: »
    Adam240610 16.1__26.8__4.0__80__144__29mm Valentia

    Forgot to add a date, I'll go with 27th if that's okay, thanks for the PM


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,619 ✭✭✭ appledrop


    12.4 mm Finner Camp on 1st. (will update daily, if anyone wants to assist, great but post ongoing 2nd and 3rd highest values as this will be the plan -- assuming this is at most a weak candidate for 3rd place).

    Will have a table of forecasts up by tomorrow.


    This remains highest rainfall. Very little rainfall at any station on 2nd August with max of only 6.8mm at Ballyhaise.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 623 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Mace Head 7.2mm yesterday.


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