August 2020 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

1. Predict the IMT, mean temperature at five locations in Ireland (Claremorris, Casement, Mullingar, Oak Park, Shannon) for August, 2020. The 1981-2010 "normal" value is 15.1 deg C.

2. Predict the MAX temperature at any regularly reporting Met-E station as reported in the Monthly Summary (and daily in the "yesterday's weather" section of their website), during August.

3. Predict the MIN temperature during August (see 2 above for overview).

4. Predict the PRC (rainfall at this time of year) as a percentage of normal values (1981-2010) at eleven locations, namely Ballyhaise, Cork, Malin Head, Belmullet, Cork, Johnstown Castle, and the five locations for the IMT (section 1 above), during August.

5. Predict the SUN (sunshine) as a percentage of normal values (1981-2010) at six locations, Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Shannon, Cork and Valentia, during August.

6. BONUS -- Predict the highest daily rainfall to be reported in the daily weather summaries at the 25 regular locations that appear in "yesterday's weather" on the met.ie website. Give the amount, date and location (most of the scoring will be based on the amount). superbonus of 1 or 2 available.

Will hold off on my own forecast as I am waiting to see if models are catching a warming trend.

Q -- what would you have if you combined July and August?

A -- Augly.

sryanbruen

sryanbruen __________ 16.1 _ 28.4 _ 4.1 _ 80 _ 110 ___ 32mm Newport, 25th

WesternStorm

WesternStorm __________ 15.5 _ 27.2 _ 3.2 _ 90 _ 106 ___ 22mm Malin Head, 22nd

200motels

200motels___________ 16.0 _ 26.4 _ 3.9 _ 77 _ 106 ___ 2mm Dublin Airport 22th

pauldry

Pauldry __________ 15.5 _ 26.1 _ 3.1 _ 170 _ 100___ 40mm Newport 31st

Artane2002

Artane2002 __________ 16.0 _ 27.8 _ 3.3 _ 100 _ 113 ___ 35mm Newport, 21st

Joe Public

Joe Public_________ 16.3 _ 28.3 _ 3.3 _ 99 _ 99 ___ 43mm Valentia 4th

Bsal

Bsal __________ 15.6 _ 26.4 _ 3.1 _ 110 _ 93 ___ 22mm Gurteen, 13th

DOCARCH

DOCARCH__________ 15.0 _ 26.3 _ 2.8 _ 115 _ 103 _ 23.6mm Valentia 15th

mr.stonewall

Mrstonewall_________ 16.7__27.4__2.3__90__105__33mm Shannon 4th

sunflower3

Sunflower3 __________ 15.6 _ 25.1 _ 3.6 _ 110 _ 95 ___ 31mm Newport, 8th

Tae laidir

Tae laidir __________ 16.2 _ 27.0 _ 3.7 _ 82 _ 109 ___ 23mm Mace Head, 5th

kindredspirit

Kindred Spirit ___ 15.0 ___ 27.0 ___ 3.5 ___ 115 ___ 95 ___ 30mm. 17th. Valentia.

waterways

waterways _____________ 15.7 _ 27.3 _ 3.2 _ 116 _ 97 ___ 43mm Athenry 15th

dacogawa

Dacogawa __________ 15.8 _ 29.2 _ 3.1 _ 159 _ 96 ___ 42mm Roches Point 14th

dasa29

dasa29 ___ 15.0 ___ 26.0 ___ 3.0 ___ 125 ___ 100 ___ 25mm. 18th. Malin Head.

Jpmarn

Jpmarn _______ 15.9_ 26.5 _ 2.5 _ 120 _ 105 ___ 32.5 Valentia 16th.

M.T. Cranium

MTC _________ 16.0 _ 27.5 _ 3.5 _ 105 _ 102 ___ 35.0 mm 28th Dunsany

Normal _______15.1 _ 27.0 _ 2.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 40.0 mm (date random, loc'n by climat)

mrskinner

Skinner_____15.3_____25.3_____4.3_____93_____93_____37mm Valentia 4th

adam240610

Adam240610 16.1__26.8__4.0__80__144__29mm Valentia

appledrop

Appledrop 15.4____26.1__2.5_80%__90%__41mm Newport Furnace 27th

John mac

john mac__________ 15.0 _ 26.1 _ 3.9 _ 95 _ 102 ___ 42mm Newport, 26th

Jugst

Rikand

I had the August thread open a couple of days ago and i said, I must enter that on time this time around....

Rikand ____ 15.0 ____ 25.0 ____ 1.5 ____ 90 ____ 120 _____ 50 mm Mount Dillon 24th

mickger844posts

mickger844posts___________ 16.0 _ 25.4 _ 4.9 _ 84_ 95 ___ 36mm Johnstown Castle 26th

BLIZZARD7

BLIZZARD7 _________ 16.3 _ 29.5_ 3.3 _ 80 _ 135 ___ 58.00 mm 18th Dunsany

M.T. Cranium

12.4 mm Finner Camp on 1st. (will update daily, if anyone wants to assist, great but post ongoing 2nd and 3rd highest values as this will be the plan -- assuming this is at most a weak candidate for 3rd place).

Will have a table of forecasts up by tomorrow.

eon1208

15.9, 25.2, 3.4, 89%, 106%, 46mm - 29th Aug. - Valentia.

M.T. Cranium

Table of forecasts for August, 2020


FORECASTER _______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ Max rain locn date


Mrstonewall _________16.7 _ 27.4 _ 2.3 _ 090 _ 105 ___ 33.0 Shannon 4th

BLIZZARD7 ____ (-4) _16.3 _ 29.5 _ 3.3 _ 080 _ 135 ___ 58.0 Dunsany 18th

Joe Public___________16.3 _ 28.3 _ 3.3 _ 099 _ 099 ___ 43.0 Valentia 4th

Tae laidir ___________16.2 _ 27.0 _ 3.7 _ 082 _ 109 ___ 23.0 Mace Head 5th

sryanbruen _________ 16.1 _ 28.4 _ 4.1 _ 080 _ 110 ___ 32.0 Newport 25th

Adam240610 _______ 16.1 _ 26.8 _ 4.0 _ 080 _ 144 ___ 29.0 Valentia 27th

M.T. Cranium _______ 16.0 _ 27.5 _ 3.5 _ 105 _ 102 ___ 35.0 Dunsany 28th

Artane2002 _________16.0 _ 27.8 _ 3.3 _ 100 _ 113 ___ 35.0 Newport 21st

200motels__________ 16.0 _ 26.4 _ 3.9 _ 077 _ 106 ___ 20.0 Dublin Airport 22nd

mickger844posts_(-3)_16.0 _ 25.4 _ 4.9 _ 084 _ 095 ___ 36.0 Johnstown Castle 26th

Jpmarn ____________ 15.9 _ 26.5 _ 2.5 _ 120 _ 105 ___ 32.5 Valentia 16th

Eon1208 _____ (-8) __ 15.9 _ 25.2 _ 3.4 _ 089 _ 106 ___ 46.0 Valentia 29th

Dacogawa __________ 15.8 _ 29.2 _ 3.1 _ 159 _ 096 ___ 42.0 Roches Point 14th


Con Sensus _________ 15.8 _ 27.0 _ 3.3 _ 095 _ 102 ___ 35.0 (see info below)


waterways __________15.7 _ 27.3 _ 3.2 _ 116 _ 097 ___ 43.0 Athenry 15th

Bsal _______________15.6 _ 26.4 _ 3.1 _ 110 _ 093 ___ 22.0 Gurteen 13th

Sunflower3 _________ 15.6 _ 25.1 _ 3.6 _ 110 _ 095 ___ 31.0 Newport 8th

WesternStorm _______15.5 _ 27.2 _ 3.2 _ 090 _ 106 ___ 22.0 Malin Head 22nd

Pauldry ____________ 15.5 _ 26.1 _ 3.1 _ 170 _ 100 ___ 40.0 Newport 31st

Appledrop __________ 15.4 _ 26.1 _ 2.5 _ 080 _ 090 ___ 41.0 Newport 27th

MrSkinner __________ 15.3 _ 25.3 _ 4.3 _ 093 _ 093 ___ 37.0 Valentia 4th


Normal _____________15.1 _ 26.5 _ 2.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 40.0 (loc'n by climat, date random)


Kindred Spirit ________15.0 _ 27.0 _ 3.5 _ 115 _ 095 ___ 30.0 Valentia 17th

DOCARCH___________ 15.0 _ 26.3 _ 2.8 _ 115 _ 103 ___ 23.6 Valentia 15th

john mac ___________ 15.0 _ 26.1 _ 3.9 _ 095 _ 102 ___ 42.0 Newport 26th

dasa29 _____________15.0 _ 26.0 _ 3.0 __125 _100 ___ 25.0 Malin Head 18th

Rikand _____ (-2) ____15.0 _ 25.0 _ 1.5 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 50.0 Mount Dillon 24th

_________________________________________________

For the maximum 24h rainfall, we had these locations predicted:

Valentia _________7

Newport _________6

Malin Head _______2

Dunsany ________ 2

Shannon ________ 1

Johnstown Castle _ 1

Roches' Point _____1

Athenry _________1

Mace Head _______1

Gurteen _________ 1

Dublin ___________1

Mountdillon _______1

Not selected: Cork, Moorepark, Sherkin Is, Oak Park, Casement, Phoenix Park, Mullingar, Claremorris, Knock, Belmullet, Markree, Finner, Ballyhaise.

Con Sensus gets 3 points if location is Newport or Valentia, 2 points if Malin Head or Dunsany, 1 point if any of the other locations chosen (by one forecaster) and zero if none of the chosen locations. Normal scores location points by climatology (top third of August precip averages score 3, middle third score 2, bottom third score 1).

The date selections are essentially random and scattered through the month with a bias towards the second half (probably in part due to fairly dry looking maps on model runs past few days in first half), the dates selected are

4, 4, 4, 5, 8, 13, 14, 15, 15, 16, 17, 18, 18, 21, 22, 22, 24, 25, 26, 26, 27, 27, 28, 29, 31 (12/25 selected last third)

but Con will score 3 for any actual date selected by more than one, 2 for any other date, and 1 for any date in the second half of the month if not selected.

Note -- cleared up two issues with forecasts and table is amended as per the information provided. Thanks.


Eon1208, your late penalty is still a bit short of what a regular entrant would get for 2d +5h but as I said last month, will be lenient since you are new to contest and won't be a factor in the final annual standings from starting out in July. Just FYI the late penalties are 1 point per six hours (or portion) for the first 36 hours then 1 point per hour thereafter. So in your case, that would normally be 17 points.

Looks like we have all 21 of the regular entrants plus four either part-time or new, welcome back in each case, and good luck everyone.

adam240610

adam240610 wrote: »

Adam240610 16.1__26.8__4.0__80__144__29mm Valentia

Forgot to add a date, I'll go with 27th if that's okay, thanks for the PM

appledrop

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

12.4 mm Finner Camp on 1st. (will update daily, if anyone wants to assist, great but post ongoing 2nd and 3rd highest values as this will be the plan -- assuming this is at most a weak candidate for 3rd place).

Will have a table of forecasts up by tomorrow.

This remains highest rainfall. Very little rainfall at any station on 2nd August with max of only 6.8mm at Ballyhaise.

Tae laidir

Mace Head 7.2mm yesterday.

pauldry

Surely today will set a few targets

Had 9mm in Sligo overnight but officially Malin Head has 13mm so far today

Gonzo

I'm probably too late to enter but here's my guess anyway!

Gonzo___________ 15.9 _ 27.4 _ 3.4 _ 65 _ 123 ___ 37mm Dunsany 26th

M.T. Cranium

You can certainly enter, there would be a fairly hefty late penalty for a regular participant entering this late, but I will score yours and we'll see what happens next, it can't affect the outcome of the annual contest in any way as you've only entered a couple (IIRC).

Jpmarn

Bonus Question highest daily rainfall total. 37mm at Malin Head on the 4th.
MAX at 24.1°C at Phoenix Park.

Tae laidir

Super Bonus. Shannon 5.6. Valentia 7.6

appledrop

Jpmarn wrote: »

Bonus Question highest daily rainfall total. 37mm at Malin Head on the 4th.
MAX at 24.1°C at Phoenix Park.

Wow that's a lot of rainfall for one day + its only the 4th August!

Rikand

Gotta be a good contender in there somewhere for today. Biblical stuff fell around athlone this morning. My poor gazebo weathered the wind no bother, but the rain last night and this morning wrecked it

pauldry

22mm in Shannon and 21mm Roches Point.

Maybe

1.Malin Head 37mm 4th Aug
2. Valentia 19.4mm 5th Aug
3. Roches Point 17.8mm 5th Aug

Tae laidir

Super Bonus Mace Head 5.3

M.T. Cranium

Okay super bonus is usually given out when there are two elements and somebody has full points in one and either full points or one less than full in the other element. I haven't applied superbonus to three elements before, so here is how it will work:

2 points superbonus for anyone who manages full points in 2/3 regardless of outcome in third element, or anyone who manages full points in one and then one short in the other two categories.

1 point superbonus will go to anyone who does no worse than one short of full points in all three.

And for scoring this, I will give 10 points for amount, 5 for date and 5 for location, add them up, divide by two, rounding up where needed. So in practical terms, to be on track for superbonus you will need to finish in the top six for your rainfall amount and in the top 12 for your date and location (top 3, 6 and 6 to get full points, 4-6, 7-12, 7-12 earning one fewer than full).

There will be one superbonus point awarded to high score if nobody meets any of those criteria otherwise, and one superbonus will go to anyone who runs up a higher score than anyone who does qualify for one superbonus.

Therefore, not sure what was being tracked in some of the earlier posts, but all we need to track now would be any rainfalls higher than the three highest so far, which are

37.0 Malin Head (4th)

19.4 Valentia (5th)

17.8 Roches Point (5th)

Tae laidir

I have been recording the actual rainfall for the date/location for each player. Just for interest. Not meant for scoring. Sorry for confusion.

Jpmarn

MAX now 25.0°C at Phoenix Park on the 7th
MIN now 4.4°C at Athenry also on the 7th.

pauldry

Jpmarn wrote: »

MAX now 25.0°C at Phoenix Park on the 7th
MIN now 4.4°C at Athenry also on the 7th.

Both will be beaten probably.

M.T. Cranium

After the first week ...

IMT on 15.5 which is normal for the interval of 1-7 Aug.

MAX 25.0, MIN 4.4

PRC 128% of normal.

SUN 88% of normal (528/600).

Max 24h rain data in previous posts, 37 mm the highest so far. (Malin Head, 4th)

Jpmarn

New MAX 25.1°c recorded at Oak Park on the 12th

Will the Max be beaten in the next few days. Our Bonus could be called into question again over the next week with Cork Airport already on 27mm of rain today, 13th.

M.T. Cranium

Keep a close eye on developments as I am almost on holiday (visiting family, yada yada). I may not see everything I try to monitor daily this weekend. Easy enough to check back but with your help it's a lot easier. Cork will probably move into second place in the rainfall table, not sure if any other location would take third. Maybe after Saturday all will change?

pauldry

Yesterday

Sherkin 35.6mm
Cork 28.1mm

appledrop

Oak Park again got up to max of 25.1 on 13th Aug.

pauldry

Somewhere will surely top that today.

Jpmarn

Max at 25.2°C Markee Castle 14th.