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August 2020 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

1. Predict the IMT, mean temperature at five locations in Ireland (Claremorris, Casement, Mullingar, Oak Park, Shannon) for August, 2020. The 1981-2010 "normal" value is 15.1 deg C.

2. Predict the MAX temperature at any regularly reporting Met-E station as reported in the Monthly Summary (and daily in the "yesterday's weather" section of their website), during August.

3. Predict the MIN temperature during August (see 2 above for overview).

4. Predict the PRC (rainfall at this time of year) as a percentage of normal values (1981-2010) at eleven locations, namely Ballyhaise, Cork, Malin Head, Belmullet, Cork, Johnstown Castle, and the five locations for the IMT (section 1 above), during August.

5. Predict the SUN (sunshine) as a percentage of normal values (1981-2010) at six locations, Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Shannon, Cork and Valentia, during August.

6. BONUS -- Predict the highest daily rainfall to be reported in the daily weather summaries at the 25 regular locations that appear in "yesterday's weather" on the met.ie website. Give the amount, date and location (most of the scoring will be based on the amount). superbonus of 1 or 2 available.

Will hold off on my own forecast as I am waiting to see if models are catching a warming trend.

Q -- what would you have if you combined July and August?

A -- Augly.

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pauldry

Surely today will set a few targets

Had 9mm in Sligo overnight but officially Malin Head has 13mm so far today

Gonzo

I'm probably too late to enter but here's my guess anyway!

Gonzo___________ 15.9 _ 27.4 _ 3.4 _ 65 _ 123 ___ 37mm Dunsany 26th

M.T. Cranium

You can certainly enter, there would be a fairly hefty late penalty for a regular participant entering this late, but I will score yours and we'll see what happens next, it can't affect the outcome of the annual contest in any way as you've only entered a couple (IIRC).

Jpmarn

Bonus Question highest daily rainfall total. 37mm at Malin Head on the 4th.
MAX at 24.1°C at Phoenix Park.

Tae laidir

Super Bonus. Shannon 5.6. Valentia 7.6

appledrop

Jpmarn wrote: »

Bonus Question highest daily rainfall total. 37mm at Malin Head on the 4th.
MAX at 24.1°C at Phoenix Park.

Wow that's a lot of rainfall for one day + its only the 4th August!

Rikand

Gotta be a good contender in there somewhere for today. Biblical stuff fell around athlone this morning. My poor gazebo weathered the wind no bother, but the rain last night and this morning wrecked it

pauldry

22mm in Shannon and 21mm Roches Point.

Maybe

1.Malin Head 37mm 4th Aug
2. Valentia 19.4mm 5th Aug
3. Roches Point 17.8mm 5th Aug

Tae laidir

Super Bonus Mace Head 5.3

M.T. Cranium

Okay super bonus is usually given out when there are two elements and somebody has full points in one and either full points or one less than full in the other element. I haven't applied superbonus to three elements before, so here is how it will work:

2 points superbonus for anyone who manages full points in 2/3 regardless of outcome in third element, or anyone who manages full points in one and then one short in the other two categories.

1 point superbonus will go to anyone who does no worse than one short of full points in all three.

And for scoring this, I will give 10 points for amount, 5 for date and 5 for location, add them up, divide by two, rounding up where needed. So in practical terms, to be on track for superbonus you will need to finish in the top six for your rainfall amount and in the top 12 for your date and location (top 3, 6 and 6 to get full points, 4-6, 7-12, 7-12 earning one fewer than full).

There will be one superbonus point awarded to high score if nobody meets any of those criteria otherwise, and one superbonus will go to anyone who runs up a higher score than anyone who does qualify for one superbonus.

Therefore, not sure what was being tracked in some of the earlier posts, but all we need to track now would be any rainfalls higher than the three highest so far, which are

37.0 Malin Head (4th)

19.4 Valentia (5th)

17.8 Roches Point (5th)

Tae laidir

I have been recording the actual rainfall for the date/location for each player. Just for interest. Not meant for scoring. Sorry for confusion.

Jpmarn

MAX now 25.0°C at Phoenix Park on the 7th
MIN now 4.4°C at Athenry also on the 7th.

pauldry

Jpmarn wrote: »

MAX now 25.0°C at Phoenix Park on the 7th
MIN now 4.4°C at Athenry also on the 7th.

Both will be beaten probably.

M.T. Cranium

After the first week ...

IMT on 15.5 which is normal for the interval of 1-7 Aug.

MAX 25.0, MIN 4.4

PRC 128% of normal.

SUN 88% of normal (528/600).

Max 24h rain data in previous posts, 37 mm the highest so far. (Malin Head, 4th)

Jpmarn

New MAX 25.1°c recorded at Oak Park on the 12th

Will the Max be beaten in the next few days. Our Bonus could be called into question again over the next week with Cork Airport already on 27mm of rain today, 13th.

M.T. Cranium

Keep a close eye on developments as I am almost on holiday (visiting family, yada yada). I may not see everything I try to monitor daily this weekend. Easy enough to check back but with your help it's a lot easier. Cork will probably move into second place in the rainfall table, not sure if any other location would take third. Maybe after Saturday all will change?

pauldry

Yesterday

Sherkin 35.6mm
Cork 28.1mm

appledrop

Oak Park again got up to max of 25.1 on 13th Aug.

pauldry

Somewhere will surely top that today.

Jpmarn

Max at 25.2°C Markee Castle 14th.

appledrop

New Max, Markree Castle 25.2 14th Aug.

Gonzo

that temperature max of 25.2 is going to be tough to beat now as we are cooling down and a very autumnal second half of August is possible.

M.T. Cranium

Just have enough time to do this before heading out for the day ...

Second week update.

The IMT has reached a toasty 16.3 with the second week average 17.0 which was 1.6 above normal. High point likely to come soon, may calculate that daily for a while to check it out.

MAX and MIN as per previous reports in the thread, 25.2 I believe is the MAX and our MIN so far is almost certain to be outdone later.

PRC has fallen to 82% of normal, the second week was essentially dry in the northern and central counties, and near normal in the south, blending to 40% of normal overall.

SUN has reached 101% as the second week average was 114% (688/600).

I will update the bonus 24h rainfall standings later in the week as I expect a few contenders to show up but it looks like Malin Head, Cork and Sherkin are currently top three.

pauldry

Was 25c in Mount Dillon and 26.1c in back yard in Sligo but think Markree might have got 25c again. It was roasting here again today.

John mac

25.2° again at Markee for 15th

edit 24.2....

appledrop

John mac wrote: »

25.2° again at Markee for 15th

Looks like it was 25.2 at Mount Dillion yesterday rather than Markee.

appledrop

Change to rainfall max:

1. Malin Head 37mm 4th Aug
2. Sherkin 35.6mm 13th Aug
3. Valentina 32.6mm 15th Aug

pauldry

Looks like the rainfall table could be busy in the coming days

Jpmarn

Some notable rainfall totals for the 17th but does not make the top 3 for this month.
Moorepark 30.4mm
Shannon 26.7mm

M.T. Cranium

You have to admit, I chose a good bonus question this month.