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Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion : Winter 2020/Spring 2021
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Estofex going for a level 1 in parts of the South, could get Interesting later on.
Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 28 Jan 2021 06:00 to Fri 29 Jan 2021 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 27 Jan 2021 23:40
Forecaster: GATZEN
A level 1 was issued across the southern British Isles and north-western and central France for severe wind gusts and a few tornadoes.
SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION
A large trough is located across eastern Europe that will lift during the period. In its wake, a strong jet stream extends from the northern Atlantic towards the Mediterranean. Two vort-maxima will cross western Europe and provide QG lift. At lower levels, a tongue of humid maritime air spreads into western Europe, with mixing ratios around 8 g/kg. Lift due to warm air advection will result in rather steep lapse rates and weak CAPE.
On Thursday, widespread showers are expected within the martime air mass. Two activity maxima are forecast in association with two vort-maxima, one crossing the British Islea into the Benelux countries in the afternoon and evening, another affecting large parts of the Bay of Biscay and France late in the period.
Chance of thunderstorms is highest in the northern parts , whereas only isolated lightning is expected in the south due to higher EL temperature. Showers and thunderstorms will be well-organized in a high-shear, low-CAPE environment, with about 15 to 20 m/s 0-1 km vertical wind shear. Bowing segments and low-topped mesocyclones are not ruled out. Main threat are severe wind gusts. However, due to low LCLs, a few tornadoes are not ruled out.
https://www.estofex.org/cgi-bin/polygon/showforecast.cgi?text=yes&fcstfile=2021012906_202101272340_1_stormforecast.xml0 -
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igCorcaigh wrote: »I always jump on this thread in excitement when it gets bumped.
What time are we taking about in the South?
Nothing much on Met Éireann's forecast apart from some windy wet weather in the South tonight.
Unfortunately it wouldn't be the first time Estofex have issued a warning for ireland and nothing to come of it.
No sparks out there atm
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The best I can see is the SW for the next few hours as the front goes through associated with that advancing area of LP.
Weak CAPE readings though if the shear is somewhat strong and lapse rates are decent, no guarantee though but maybe with a bit of Orographic lift ? In all quite weak looking perhaps .
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Do you think that the risk is on the same timescales as suggested by M.T. Cranium earlier, just wondering when to unplug ?
Will be watching from early afternoon, probably more a chance say from North Kerry up through Limerick, midlands, N or NE. Not huge MUCAPE but some bit of a possibility, yeah around the same timescale.
Some straight wind like features showing up on the models for the afternoon, could be very wet and gusty during their passage.
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Convective set up going into Thurs as we enter an unstable air flow with cold air aloft. Ok shear in lower levels and increasing in upper levels during the day, modest CAPE and decent enough lapse rates .Wintry showers of sleet rain with hail with thunderstorms possible. Some big blustery showers on Thurs but bright spells also.
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Blustery here in Kerry but good bright spells. Had sleet and a good few hail showers, very heavy hail showers overnight waking us a couple of times.
Good few well scattered sferics showing up today.
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Mammatus display earlier in the day in Dublin 13 and slight hints of shelf cloud this eve ahead of the hail shower near Howth.
Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/
Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1
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Big showers rolling in here near Tralee, I see some recent activity up along the coast, bit of CAPE available for a time in the early hours.
Tomorrow again small amount of CAPE available earlier in the day that might give a few sporadic strikes and tomorrow night into Sat will be interesting to see if there is a bit of increased activity with the passage of an upper trough and upper cold pool . Increasingly wintry and hail showers tomorrow night into Sat it would seem.
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This discussion has been closed.
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