Winter 2019/2020 - General Discussion

Donegal Storm · 01-12-2019 1:13pm

Winter starting as autumn finished in Donegal, another nice calm bright day with plenty of sunshine

Long may this reversal of North West and South East continue

Captain Snow · 01-12-2019 1:43pm

Gavs Winter Forecast 2019/2020

Mortelaro · 01-12-2019 1:44pm

DOCARCH wrote: »

Yip! Winter has started in Dublin as Autumn left off....light rain.

And look at the air pressure
Near 1030mb ...

nacho libre · 01-12-2019 3:48pm

Captain Snow wrote: »

Gavs Winter Forecast 2019/2020

Interesting forecast. I think he might be right about how it pans out- cold outbreaks throughout the winter, but nothing too prolonged.
This winter might see a few frontal snow events, and a split at times between the north and north east of the country, which could be cold and snowy at times, with milder weather in the south.

Meteorite58 · 01-12-2019 6:17pm

Lovely evening here in Kerry , clear skies for the most part , calm and cold at 3.4C . Ice already on the roof of the cars in the sheltered side of the house.

Fog forming about 30 mins ago.

eFlejJE.jpg?1

ZX7R · 01-12-2019 6:21pm

highdef wrote: »

Had wet snow in North Kildare around dawn this morning. Was very surprised as I was expecting frost this morning.

Saw a bit myself this morning around 5:30 am

pad199207 · 01-12-2019 6:43pm

Already -0.5c in Kildare

Snow Garden · 01-12-2019 9:41pm

It's great to get to December. Game on now for some decent cold weather.

Danno · 01-12-2019 9:47pm

Cold and frosty under a clear sky with just some shallow fog about. Currently -0.8c but had dipped to -1.4c earlier.

Harry Palmr · 01-12-2019 9:50pm

Windscreen lighted frosted over at 7.30!

JCX BXC · 01-12-2019 10:22pm

0.8c in Kilrush, Co.Clare currently, with a nice light smog over the town. A nice distinctive coal smell to the air, always reminds me of a nice crisp winters evening.

Gonzo · 01-12-2019 10:41pm

nacho libre wrote: »

Interesting forecast. I think he might be right about how it pans out- cold outbreaks throughout the winter, but nothing too prolonged.
This winter might see a few frontal snow events, and a split at times between the north and north east of the country, which could be cold and snowy at times, with milder weather in the south.

hard to know what to make of that winter forecast. The gist i'm getting from it is we are in for a mainly Atlantic driven winter and any cold outbreaks will be short lived. We do look to be in for a very unsettled December, but I think after that, everything's up in the air for now. Hopefully we will have a dryer January-March, with the Jetstream heading into somewhere like Morocco. My money is on the Atlantic to dominate the majority of the winter.

Harry Palmr · 01-12-2019 11:31pm

JCX BXC wrote: »

0.8c in Kilrush, Co.Clare currently, with a nice light smog over the town. A nice distinctive coal smell to the air, always reminds me of a nice crisp winters evening.

Are you some sort of climate denier! :eek:

nthclare · 01-12-2019 11:37pm

JCX BXC wrote: »

0.8c in Kilrush, Co.Clare currently, with a nice light smog over the town. A nice distinctive coal smell to the air, always reminds me of a nice crisp winters evening.

-2 in in North Clare, no smog, twinkling stars, fresh air and crispy crunchy grass

Rock Lesnar · 02-12-2019 12:22am

Frost here in meath since sunset, had to clear ice on the car at 6.15, lovely crisp night out there

diceyd · 02-12-2019 1:20am

Nice

KingdomRushed · 02-12-2019 9:59am

Funny I read a news story saying that the Irish Bookies had greatly lengthened the odds on a white christmas in last few days, when my thoughts were actually starting to think the opposite. This morning's GFS run shows some very wintry weather from mid December. As long as patterns like this keep appearing in the mix I would be slow to rule out snow in December.

JCX BXC · 02-12-2019 10:25am

Lovely frosty morning in West Clare, currently -1.1c with sun and mostly clear skies, bar a bit of high cloud. Sun making easy work of defrosting things.

kod87 · 02-12-2019 10:29am

JCX BXC wrote: »

Lovely frosty morning in West Clare, currently -1.1c with sun and mostly clear skies, bar a bit of high cloud. Sun making easy work of defrosting things.

Yeah, similar to here in Tipp, perfect winters morning, wish this was more typical of our winter weather. More bright frosty mornings please

SleetAndSnow · 02-12-2019 11:21am

Was a cold first winter night in cork city. Currently about 2/3 degrees but as my house is north facing the roofs and cars are still frosted over

nacho libre · 02-12-2019 5:36pm

Gonzo wrote: »

hard to know what to make of that winter forecast. The gist i'm getting from it is we are in for a mainly Atlantic driven winter and any cold outbreaks will be short lived. We do look to be in for a very unsettled December, but I think after that, everything's up in the air for now. Hopefully we will have a dryer January-March, with the Jetstream heading into somewhere like Morocco. My money is on the Atlantic to dominate the majority of the winter.

This is pretty much what the Netweather forecast is saying. I think in such a pattern we can get decent, albeit short lived, snow events, but if you are after several ice days in a row you will likely be disappointed. If it does pan out like this, it will at least be better than last year. So hopefully we can get a potent northerly of old this winter.

Goldfinch8 · 02-12-2019 5:43pm

After a beautiful dawn this morning, we are finishing with a glorious evening skyscape. A December day that really delivered at both ends here in central Mayo. More of these please!

sryanbruen · 02-12-2019 7:18pm

Similar in Dublin. Missed the sunrise but sunset was beautiful.

squarecircles · 02-12-2019 7:19pm

The Netweather Winter forecast,thats another winter down the ****ter,

great i can put my mind at ease.

https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/uk/long-range/seasonal

SleetAndSnow · 02-12-2019 7:32pm

Beautiful sunset in cork city today and drove out a bit too and looked lovely over all the fields with fog forming in them.

Down to about 1/1.5 degrees here in my garden now in the bishops town/Wilton area.

Logan Roy · 02-12-2019 7:40pm

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

Beautiful sunset in cork city today and drove out a bit too and looked lovely over all the fields with fog forming in them.

Down to about 1/1.5 degrees here in my garden now in the bishops town/Wilton area.

One of the best ive ever seen in Cork (Outside of summer).

Artane2002 · 02-12-2019 9:55pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

Similar in Dublin. Missed the sunrise but sunset was beautiful.

What a beautiful shot!

From what I remember, sunrise wasn't really anything to write home about so you didn't really miss much.

Loughc · 02-12-2019 10:44pm

squarecircles wrote: »

The Netweather Winter forecast,thats another winter down the ****ter,

great i can put my mind at ease.

https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/uk/long-range/seasonal

Pffft amateur I put my mind at ease months ago.

Oneiric 3 · 03-12-2019 1:16am

sryanbruen wrote: »

Similar in Dublin. Missed the sunrise but sunset was beautiful.

Lovely shot Syran. There seems to have been a lot of these unusual skyscapes (for the time of year.) around these last few weeks at times.

Artane2002 · 03-12-2019 8:45am

Artane2002 wrote: »

What a beautiful shot!

From what I remember, sunrise wasn't really anything to write home about so you didn't really miss much.

A stunner of a sunrise this morning though!

It's very frosty and cold too in Dublin 5. It's already been a better winter than last year even though we're only three days in...

Goldfinch8 · 03-12-2019 9:59am

Another largely clear morning here in this part of Mayo but change is afoot. The breeze which has taken a bit of a sabbatical here recently has reappeared in the form of a cool freshening southerly with a wee bite to it. I agree with one of Oneiric's posts recently in the Autumn thread about the general lack of storminess and strong winds over the past number of weeks in this part of the world. The breeze is usually a constant companion down here during autumn and early winter. I do know however that all somebody needs to do is leave the door ajar and the good old Atlantic will be back in. I will bank these last few days of early winter gladly.
4c.

jprboy · 03-12-2019 2:00pm

I've searched but can't locate M.T.'s winter forecast.

Anyone able to point me towards it?

Thanks!

Loughc · 03-12-2019 2:09pm

jprboy wrote: »

I've searched but can't locate M.T.'s winter forecast.

Anyone able to point me towards it?

Thanks!

Mild, Wet, Windy. /End

easypazz · 03-12-2019 2:40pm

Logan Roy wrote: »

Can you please stop filling up the thread with this rubbish?

Yer man M.T.s long term forecast is what usually turns out to be rubbish TBH.

The same as the postman from Donegal and some guy in NZ and a few more.

Get it right once in a while and people they are some sort of guru.

Tzmaster90 · 03-12-2019 2:58pm

easypazz wrote: »

Yer man M.T.s long term forecast is what usually turns out to be rubbish TBH.

The same as the postman from Donegal and some guy in NZ and a few more.

Get it right once in a while and people they are some sort of guru.

Don't disrespect M.T he knows more than you he was working at it longer but I do hope he is wrong and we have more cold and snowy

Logan Roy · 03-12-2019 3:07pm

Tzmaster90 wrote: »

Don't disrespect M.T he knows more than you he was working at it longer but I do hope he is wrong and we have more cold and snowy

He's making a fair point, LRF are rubbish, it's nothing to do with disrespecting someone. It's all well and fine saying there's a 60% chance of a colder than average winter, but that still means there's a 40% chance of that not being the case. Not particularly useful.....

nacho libre · 03-12-2019 5:27pm

pauldry wrote: »

The first pulse of cold has already got less cold....the 2nd one will follow and instead of 2 or 3c we will get 5 to 8c

Always happens.....except in 2010 and the beast.

Well, yes that event has led to unrealistic expectations, if you are holding out for that each time there is talk of cold weather you are are likely to be disappointed.

I am hoping for a 2- three day cold spell with a polar low - just like the ones we use to know. I think we can get that at some stage if the current pattern in the northern hemisphere holds. Several icedays in a row are unlikely in a mobile regime, but if the jet has a tendency to stay to the south, we may get decent arctic incursions at times.

US2 · 03-12-2019 5:28pm

When can ye expect to have confidence in those cold charts for dec 10 + ? Seems to be showing the cold for a couple of runs now , are all the models in agreement?

BLIZZARD7 · 03-12-2019 5:51pm

US2 wrote: »

When can ye expect to have confidence in those cold charts for dec 10 + ? Seems to be showing the cold for a couple of runs now , are all the models in agreement?

Real confidence? Wait for +72hrs and all in agreement. A Very fragile but also potentially very interesting setup coming up - Reasonable confidence once you get inside +120hrs. Anything beyond +144hrs is liable to significant change.

Cold and unsettled from around the 10/11th onwards going by the GFS and ECM. UKMO quite a bit flatter on this afternoon's 12z run though so confidence low beyond +120hrs at the moment.

loughside · 03-12-2019 5:54pm

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

Beautiful sunset in cork city today and drove out a bit too and looked lovely over all the fields with fog forming in them.

Aye, some great sunsets these past couple of evenings..

Co.down

Rougies · 03-12-2019 6:48pm

Some nice lenticular clouds over the Dublin mountains this evening.

squarecircles · 03-12-2019 9:49pm

The reality of the cold artic plunge next week now begining to filter into the BBC forecast outlook.
Cold begining to get locked in now, GFS and ECM in agreement.

'' A plume of cold air pushes out of the Artic across our shores''
''Things turning very much wintery...an increased chance of severe frosts and snow showers''

https://www.bbc.com/weather/features/50652225

Meteorite58 · 03-12-2019 9:50pm

easypazz wrote: »

Yer man M.T.s long term forecast is what usually turns out to be rubbish TBH.

The same as the postman from Donegal and some guy in NZ and a few more.

Get it right once in a while and people they are some sort of guru.

Mod Note

easypazz , no need for such statements on this forum.

Disagree if you will with another posters views but show respect especially to MT who has contributed so much over many years to this forum.

YanSno · 03-12-2019 10:40pm

Cold Wintry weather in pretty much in agreement for next week. Icon seems to be going that way too. Further down, Potential of a Blocking, HP could be to our North East which will introduce either an easterly or North easterly. This could happen before Christmas or just after, long way off though. Regarding next week uppers could be on the marginal side along the coast and also potential of some long fetch streams as the week goes on. Still in FI, Let's see how this pans out.

wakka12 · 03-12-2019 10:50pm

easypazz wrote: »

Yer man M.T.s long term forecast is what usually turns out to be rubbish TBH.

The same as the postman from Donegal and some guy in NZ and a few more.

Get it right once in a while and people they are some sort of guru.

He's a very knowledgable guy just doing his best . As you say long range forecasting is difficult, should nobody try at all then? His intentions are good and I dont see the point in trying to bring him down like that. Lots of people enjoy reading his forecasts even if they dont come to fruition I dont think anyone has ever put too much stock into something forecast so far out, it's just a bit of fun and is a nice kick off to the winter weather model watching season

giveitholly · 03-12-2019 10:53pm

Good sign when YanSno is getting onboard,if I remember rightly he/she called last winter fairly accurately saying we would never get that deep cold the charts were indicating at various stages

appledrop · 03-12-2019 11:02pm

Some beautiful sunsets in Dublin over last few evenings. Last night was unreal.

Loving this current weather. Freezing cold but beautiful sunshine + not a drop of rain.

Long may it continue!

jprboy · 03-12-2019 11:12pm

jprboy wrote: »

I've searched but can't locate M.T.'s winter forecast.

Anyone able to point me towards it?

Thanks!

Well, that got interesting …… !!

No-one answered the question though - anyone?

Goldfinch8 · 03-12-2019 11:19pm

Breeze nicely up in Mayo now. Watching rain on the radar along the west coast. Normal service resumed. Will just have to keep viewing the sunset pictures from the weather posters to remind me of Paradise Lost!

Logan Roy · 03-12-2019 11:26pm

Tzmaster90 wrote: »

Like i Said still disrespect don't want to know what you see as being disrespectful he was calling rubbish but also point to M.T on here longer then you or me so enough i hope it is cold and his Forecast is not right but would not call rubbish Even Mod agreed with that user anyway move along i want Shnowww

I stand by my point. Is there merit in doing them to try and improve the accuracy going forward? Absolutely. But in terms of accuracy they're rubbish.

Winter 2019/2020 - General Discussion

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