Relaxation of Restrictions, Part VII Read OP For Mod Warnings

Boggles · 16-01-2021 2:09pm

CalamariFritti wrote: »

Once the immunity from spread and vaccines is enough to lessen the health service impact sufficiently we're done in terms of lockdowns and restrictions. There may be a graded wind-down to all and the final restrictions like pubs, nightclubs, concerts etc required, but in essence we're done then.

Discuss

The vast majority vaccinated by the Autumn, winter to test it has always been my thinking. All going good, no restrictions from Spring next year.

As daunting as that sounds it's probably the most realistic scenario.

Listening to a couple of festival concert promoters during the week (not Irish ones), they seem to be pushing the vaccine card idea, the problem with that is the demographic who would attend a festival would be one of the last cohort to receive a vaccine.

CalamariFritti · 16-01-2021 2:14pm

Boggles wrote: »

The vast majority vaccinated by the Autumn, winter to test it has always been my thinking. All going good, no restrictions from Spring next year.

As daunting as that sounds it's probably the most realistic scenario.

Listening to a couple of festival concert promoters during the week (not Irish ones), they seem to be pushing the vaccine card idea, the problem with that is the demographic who would attend a festival would be one of the last cohort to receive a vaccine.

Ok but what are you basing this on?

Lets say the vaccines do their job and reduce number of hospitalisations and serious outcomes - to put a number on it - by factor 5 or 10. And we start seeing this in April/May. In this case I cant see the public staying on board with more than the very last bits of restrictions by the end of spring.

Boggles · 16-01-2021 2:24pm

CalamariFritti wrote: »

Ok but what are you basing this on?

Lets say the vaccines do their job and reduce number of hospitalisations and serious outcomes - to put a number on it - by factor 5 or 10. And we start seeing this in April/May. In this case I cant see the public staying on board with more than the very last bits of restrictions by the end of spring.

What public health experts have being telling us, plus a bit of common sense.

I think if people are expecting zero restrictions by the end of spring they will be very disappointed.

You'll still in all reality have millions not inoculated in the country and if you let the virus rinse through them their is plenty there to fill up the hospitals.

lee_baby_simms · 16-01-2021 2:39pm

CalamariFritti wrote: »

Ok but what are you basing this on?

Lets say the vaccines do their job and reduce number of hospitalisations and serious outcomes - to put a number on it - by factor 5 or 10. And we start seeing this in April/May. In this case I cant see the public staying on board with more than the very last bits of restrictions by the end of spring.

Not according to Dr Henry.

https://www.independent.ie/news/another-year-of-restrictions-ahead-until-everyone-has-been-vaccinated-says-dr-colm-henry-39975290.html

Micky 32 · 16-01-2021 2:48pm

lee_baby_simms wrote: »

Not according to Dr Henry.

https://www.independent.ie/news/another-year-of-restrictions-ahead-until-everyone-has-been-vaccinated-says-dr-colm-henry-39975290.html

Whether you like it or not Either way this time next year it will be over. Social distance will be over. Not a chance will i be social distancing from anyone especially if they have been inoculated like myself.

CalamariFritti · 16-01-2021 2:48pm

lee_baby_simms wrote: »

Not according to Dr Henry.

https://www.independent.ie/news/another-year-of-restrictions-ahead-until-everyone-has-been-vaccinated-says-dr-colm-henry-39975290.html

I know, that article started this.

16-01-2021 2:59pm

lee_baby_simms wrote: »

Not according to Dr Henry.

https://www.independent.ie/news/another-year-of-restrictions-ahead-until-everyone-has-been-vaccinated-says-dr-colm-henry-39975290.html

He is talking about complete normality, with no social distancing or anything. Completely pre-COVID behaviour. We will work through level 3 to 2 to 1 many months before that

(I think it does indicate that it won’t be into 2022 that nightclubs are open though, and all restrictions on standing and numbers in pubs are released)

There is not a single person on this thread expecting that there will be zero restrictions in the spring / summer

CalamariFritti · 16-01-2021 3:02pm

Boggles wrote: »

What public health experts have being telling us, plus a bit of common sense.

I think if people are expecting zero restrictions by the end of spring they will be very disappointed.

You'll still in all reality have millions not inoculated in the country and if you let the virus rinse through them their is plenty there to fill up the hospitals.

I do not expect zero restrictions by the end of spring nor did I say that.

We can debate all day whether we can still expect people to get hospitalised in numbers then or not. We will see.

For the sake of the argument let's assume for a moment they are not.

Over 90% of serious outcomes are within the vulnerable and over 65 group. Lets assume vaccines cut serious outcomes in that group by factor 5 or 10 even.
Not a crazy idea. After all thats what we developed and tested the vaccines for.

Plus the summer easing that is most likely going to happen anyway.

So in this case, do you believe there will be support to hold on for another 10 months - just in case?

Kunta Kinte · 16-01-2021 3:08pm

Micky 32 wrote: »

Whether you like it or not Either way this time next year it will be over. Social distance will be over. Not a chance will i be social distancing from anyone especially if they have been inoculated like myself.

Have you been vaccinated already?

lee_baby_simms · 16-01-2021 3:09pm

CalamariFritti wrote: »

I know, that article started this.

Sorry, personally I think we will reach a tipping point with public opinion/economic concerns vs the relative risk the virus actually poses. If everyone over 55 and vulnerable are inoculated by June with low hospital numbers I think it will be very difficult to justify significant restrictions.

I think the idea of spending an extra 3 - 6 months in lockdown just to “test the vaccine” is madness. Our economy isn’t a luxury. We need to get back to living life with its inherent risks.

CalamariFritti · 16-01-2021 3:11pm

Cork2021 wrote: »

They can fûck right off if they think that we’ll keep restrictions for a full year again! What absolute rubbish coming from a man I thought was actually one of the better communicators. This is on the same level as Micheal Lehane’s tweet last night .!
No need to depress people this month especially January the most depressing month of any year!

https://m.independent.ie/news/another-year-of-restrictions-ahead-until-everyone-has-been-vaccinated-says-dr-colm-henry-39975290.html?fbclid=IwAR3rSvzDcBO43CYD0c3x4Gy-JTNe1BLEtrtwikY_8t2Z1BKXzCMbV0vbuqM

He knows its likely vaccines and spring/summer will have the numbers drop through the floor. He is ultra careful and one could argue that is his job and he has to protect his organization.
He is trying to control the debate early on. He is getting his retaliation in first.

SnuggyBear · 16-01-2021 3:18pm

copeyhagen wrote: »

i dont have any underlying conditions so im pretty sure i wouldnt be too worried, as im not. and nobody else healthy under the age of 65 should be either.

didnt someone post the HSE death figures for 2021 this week and NOBODY under the 55-65 age bracket had died, out of THOUSANDS of cases.

I know about 10 people who got it. All are fine now and that's including an 80 year old.

CalamariFritti · 16-01-2021 3:18pm

lee_baby_simms wrote: »

Sorry, personally I think we will reach a tipping point with public opinion/economic concerns vs the relative risk the virus actually poses. If everyone over 55 and vulnerable are inoculated by June with low hospital numbers I think it will be very difficult to justify significant restrictions.

I think the idea of spending an extra 3 - 6 months in lockdown just to “test the vaccine” is madness. Our economy isn’t a luxury. We need to get back to living life with its inherent risks.

Yes I agree with that.

I think what happens is that perception gets distorted in this crazy time. The last year has in one way felt like the longest ever and in some way it was all a mad blur. All at the same time.

So people say ah sure lets do another 6 months to be safe. And from here it may feel whats the big deal? We've been through a year and some by then, lets give it another few months.

But if numbers are dropping as we expect them to drop thats not what it will feel like on each and every day when we are there in April/May/June. With more borrowing, with businesses going down even further and personally still not much to do and government and nphet dragging their feet.

Every single day then will feel like WTF.

Boggles · 16-01-2021 3:31pm

CalamariFritti wrote: »

I do not expect zero restrictions by the end of spring nor did I say that.

We can debate all day whether we can still expect people to get hospitalised in numbers then or not. We will see.

For the sake of the argument let's assume for a moment they are not.

Over 90% of serious outcomes are within the vulnerable and over 65 group. Lets assume vaccines cut serious outcomes in that group by factor 5 or 10 even.
Not a crazy idea. After all thats what we developed and tested the vaccines for.

Plus the summer easing that is most likely going to happen anyway.

So in this case, do you believe there will be support to hold on for another 10 months - just in case?

I don't really know what you mean about support.

I suspect the vast vast majority of the populous who are not inoculated would rather not contract the virus. I certainly don't want to. I think the narrative that people will just go out and let it rinse through them willingly is quite naive.

Also it's all about scale, I think a third of hospitalizations at the moment are under 65s if I heard the acting CMO correctly the other night, so there still would be a substantial cohort there.

The age group most effected health wise are older, but it's a fact that the main drivers of the virus are the younger cohort.

The reason I gave the timeline I did, is because there is too many unknowns.

You also have to consider that if you let it off the leash without restrictions the chances of it hitting someones wonky immune system and coming out the other side way angrier is increased.

But, it is the beginning of the end. I imagine May - August will have less restrictions than last year, beyond that I would be blindly guessing, but we should know far more by then.

opinionated3 · 16-01-2021 3:33pm

lee_baby_simms wrote: »

Sorry, personally I think we will reach a tipping point with public opinion/economic concerns vs the relative risk the virus actually poses. If everyone over 55 and vulnerable are inoculated by June with low hospital numbers I think it will be very difficult to justify significant restrictions.

I think the idea of spending an extra 3 - 6 months in lockdown just to “test the vaccine” is madness. Our economy isn’t a luxury. We need to get back to living life with its inherent risks.

Correct. How many people here can survive and continue to pay mortgages/loans on 350 a week?

fin12 · 16-01-2021 3:38pm

Cork2021 wrote: »

They can fûck right off if they think that we’ll keep restrictions for a full year again! What absolute rubbish coming from a man I thought was actually one of the better communicators. This is on the same level as Micheal Lehane’s tweet last night .!
No need to depress people this month especially January the most depressing month of any year!

https://m.independent.ie/news/another-year-of-restrictions-ahead-until-everyone-has-been-vaccinated-says-dr-colm-henry-39975290.html?fbclid=IwAR3rSvzDcBO43CYD0c3x4Gy-JTNe1BLEtrtwikY_8t2Z1BKXzCMbV0vbuqM

Ur dead right Cork 21.

16-01-2021 4:11pm

Honestly, we should have been open between May and October at least. That would have benefitted us on all fronts. But we were WAY too conservative.

I see no reason to suddenly believe that restrictions will be dropped this summer. The government just won’t say it out straight because they want to keep the public onside. And breaking it down into little chunks has worked for them so far.

But the goalposts will shift again come summer. We’ll need to see more vaccinated before we can relax restrictions.

Come Autumn they’ll be talking about needing a bedding in time to ensure the vaccine is working well.

Come winter, we’ll be hit hard by budget 2022. Major tax increases and spending cuts.
And a promise that restrictions will end once we are through winter.

Then the real problems will start in 2022. Most of us will be wishing a bit of Covid was the only problem facing us.

Boggles · 16-01-2021 4:18pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Then the real problems will start in 2022. Most of us will be wishing a bit of Covid was the only problem facing us.

No, the actual real problem, the once in generation pandemic will be in the rear view mirror hopefully.

I imagine one of the problems with the economy in 2022 and 2023 is to make sure it doesn't overheat.

There will be an explosion in growth but it have to be managed carefully.

Kunta Kinte · 16-01-2021 4:27pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Honestly, we should have been open between May and October at least. That would have benefitted us on all fronts. But we were WAY too conservative.

I see no reason to suddenly believe that restrictions will be dropped this summer. The government just won’t say it out straight because they want to keep the public onside. And breaking it down into little chunks has worked for them so far.

But the goalposts will shift again come summer. We’ll need to see more vaccinated before we can relax restrictions.

Come Autumn they’ll be talking about needing a bedding in time to ensure the vaccine is working well.

Come winter, we’ll be hit hard by budget 2022. Major tax increases and spending cuts.
And a promise that restrictions will end once we are through winter.

Then the real problems will start in 2022. Most of us will be wishing a bit of Covid was the only problem facing us.

And you know all this for a fact do you? Can I have a loan of your crystal ball? The truth is that no one including you has any idea what will be happening beyond this summer anyway. Anything else is just speculation despite you presenting your opinions as facts.

Gael23 · 16-01-2021 4:47pm

I think really once schools get summer holidays the game is up. People will not go without a holiday the second year running

16-01-2021 4:53pm

Boggles wrote: »

No, the actual real problem, the once in generation pandemic will be in the rear view mirror hopefully.

I imagine one of the problems with the economy in 2022 and 2023 is to make sure it doesn't overheat.

There will be an explosion in growth but it have to be managed carefully.

Or... there will still be high numbers receiving the PUP payment when it needs to be scrapped. And they’ll have to find work or go on social welfare. People mistakenly think it’s just hospitality staff on PUP. Lots of IT staff etc were made redundant too.

The banks and landlords will be much less lenient with people when restrictions are gone meaning way more defaults and evictions.

We’ll have to start paying the Covid bill meaning taxes will need to increase, new taxes introduced and cuts to spending.

Likely a lot of business will have already gone under by then as well.

And more working from home will have a huge detrimental impact on many businesses. Less or no office space required, less suppliers etc. Less business for pubs, cafes etc.

I’d love to borrow 50K from the bank today and go nuts for a year. But I’d have to pay it back unfortunately. That’s the part people seem to forget.

Kunta Kinte · 16-01-2021 4:57pm

Gael23 wrote: »

I think really once schools get summer holidays the game is up. People will not go without a holiday the second year running

If you are talking about foreign holidays the airlines will not be anywhere near getting back to normal flights this summer or this autumn either.

CalamariFritti · 16-01-2021 5:12pm

Thats not what the airlines seem to think.

Boggles · 16-01-2021 5:22pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Or... there will still be high numbers receiving the PUP payment when it needs to be scrapped.

Why will there be high numbers needing the Pandemic Unemployment Payment when the pandemic is over?

Anyway consumer spending is one of the main drivers of a growing economy.

Pent up demand and shít loads of cash will almost certainly be unleashed if not in the 2nd half of this year certainly at the start of next year.

You can view that glass as being half full you know.

16-01-2021 5:23pm

Read on RTÉ today that government met with hospitality representatives yesterday and gave them the impression that hospitality certainly wouldn’t open before Easter.

Make of that what you will. So much for the economy bouncing right back in 2021 has many have stated.

GazzaL · 16-01-2021 5:24pm

Kunta Kinte wrote: »

If you are talking about foreign holidays the airlines will not be anywhere near getting back to normal flights this summer or this autumn either.

I'll be going away in March. There'll be lads from Dublin, Belfast, Cork and Donegal all meeting up in a beautiful city on the continent to have some delicious pints.

GazzaL · 16-01-2021 5:25pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Read on RTÉ today that government met with hospitality representatives yesterday and gave them the impression that hospitality certainly wouldn’t open before Easter.

Make of that what you will. So much for the economy bouncing right back in 2021 has many have stated.

Any business in the hospitality industry carrying any half significant debt is ****ed.

Thanks Tony.

16-01-2021 5:26pm

Boggles wrote: »

Why will there be high numbers needing the Pandemic Unemployment Payment when the pandemic is over?

)

Is that a genuine question???

Because the businesses they worked for no longer exist. Because the companies they worked for cut staff/costs.

You are incredibly naive if you think everyone on PUP has a job just waiting on them to go back to.

Penfailed · 16-01-2021 5:29pm

Cork2021 wrote: »

They can fûck right off if they think that we’ll keep restrictions for a full year again! What absolute rubbish coming from a man I thought was actually one of the better communicators. This is on the same level as Micheal Lehane’s tweet last night .!
No need to depress people this month especially January the most depressing month of any year!

https://m.independent.ie/news/another-year-of-restrictions-ahead-until-everyone-has-been-vaccinated-says-dr-colm-henry-39975290.html?fbclid=IwAR3rSvzDcBO43CYD0c3x4Gy-JTNe1BLEtrtwikY_8t2Z1BKXzCMbV0vbuqM

That might mean mask wearing and social distancing. Big deal.

Gael23 · 16-01-2021 5:31pm

There won’t be a hospitality industry in Ireland any more if that’s true

Relaxation of Restrictions, Part VII *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

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Relaxation of Restrictions, Part VII Read OP For Mod Warnings