Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie

Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

Options
1…197198200202203…339

Comments

  • Options
    #5972
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,802 ✭✭✭hometruths


    awec wrote: »
    They hardly needed confirmed?

    Not to you clearly, but there are plenty of WFH deniers on here.


  • Options
    #5973
    awec
    Administrators Posts: 53,487 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    schmittel wrote: »
    Not to you clearly, but there are plenty of WFH deniers on here.

    I for one am embracing my WFH and looking forward to the days when walking for a pint at Friday lunchtime is on the cards. ;)


  • Options
    #5974
    Interested Observer
    Registered Users Posts: 13,021 ✭✭✭✭Interested Observer


    MacronvFrugals wrote: »
    Google tells workers to return to country where they are employed


    “have been asked to return by year end, partly due to tax and legal reasons”


    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/technology/google-tells-workers-to-return-to-country-where-they-are-employed-1.4367674

    Facebook have done the same.

    I work for a large US company in Dublin. The company gave us a bit of leeway over the summer and plenty of people went home to their native countries for a few months or so, and many gave up their leases in Dublin as well, but pretty much everyone is coming back. They'll ask be looking for a place to live and I don't know of a single person who is relocating permanently.


  • Options
    #5975
    Lux23
    Registered Users Posts: 7,134 ✭✭✭Lux23


    Interested Observer wrote: »
    Facebook have done the same.

    I work for a large US company in Dublin. The company gave us a bit of leeway over the summer and plenty of people went home to their native countries for a few months or so, and many gave up their leases in Dublin as well, but pretty much everyone is coming back. They'll ask be looking for a place to live and I don't know of a single person who is relocating permanently.

    How are they going to enforce it though over the next couple of months given Dublin's rate of infection?


  • Options
    #5976
    Interested Observer
    Registered Users Posts: 13,021 ✭✭✭✭Interested Observer


    Lux23 wrote: »
    How are they going to enforce it though over the next couple of months given Dublin's rate of infection?

    What a strange question.


  • Advertisement
  • Options
    #5977
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,802 ✭✭✭hometruths


    In searching for the elusive info confirming the CSO's data to be patently false and Fingal Co Co's to be the gold standard I found some more interesting stuff about vacant properties in Fingal Co Co.

    From January 2018 IT article - Number of vacant homes in Dublin said to be between 900 and 1,000 - Local authorities found average actual vacancy rate about 3% of that indicated by CSO

    “Pilot inspections in two areas of the county were carried out, with 74 [of the 361 units] inspected, resulting in 13 units identified as actually vacant.”

    This suggests about 64 vacant dwellings across the entire council area, or 1.2 per cent of those identified by the CSO.

    Given that Fingal are claiming only 64 vacant dwellings across the entire council it was strange to discover that in 2017 there were 121 vacant local authority properties in Fingal according to the National Oversight and Audit Commission

    So almost twice as many vacant properties owned by Fingal Co Co themselves in 2017 as they claimed were vacant "across the entire council area."

    An August 2018 article in the Fingal Independent may explain why Fingal Co Co have such low vacancy figures compared to the CSO and the National Oversight and Audit Commission:
    But while the council said it did not comment on individual 'void' units, a spokesperson for the local authority, said: 'It should be noted that unoccupied and boarded dwellings are not necessarily an indication of vacant possession.

    I think it is safe to assume the census enumerators would have consider boarded up houses as vacant if they found them to be unoccupied.

    Speaking of the census the spokesperson continued:
    Fingal County Council's average monthly void rate is less than one per cent of its social housing stock at a time when a base vacancy rate of six per cent of total housing stock is normally expected within a properly functioning housing market.

    'Indeed, the 2016 Census showed that the county's overall vacancy rate was 4.7% which was one of the lowest in Ireland.'

    A year after rubbishing the census data on the number of vacant units Fingal are quoting it in defence of the number of local authority vacant units.

    Fast forward to August 2020 and Fingal Co Council are not holding back in accepting their share of €40 million for the return of approximately 2,500 vacant local authority properties

    Fingal's share is €1,159,030 - the govt estimates of 12.k per property suggests they are budgeting to refurbish 92 properties, but possibly not the boarded up and unoccupied ones.

    Based on all this I hope the census skeptics will forgive me if I prefer to rely on the CSO data.

    Instinct tells me they are simply a more credible source.


  • Options
    #5978
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 17,728 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    thefridge2006 wrote: »
    ha, or maybe they are beginning to see the writing on the wall and trying dirty tactics to bleed the last bit of money out of people ?

    Either way, they are making up reports but using anecdotal evidence..... that screams desperation to me.

    Davy wouldn't be biased towards Irish residential letting. They're a stockbroker..... They get their cut regardless of what folk invest in with them.


  • Options
    #5979
    Marius34
    Registered Users Posts: 1,173 ✭✭✭Marius34


    schmittel wrote: »
    In searching for the elusive info confirming the CSO's data to be patently false and Fingal Co Co's to be the gold standard I found some more interesting stuff about vacant properties in Fingal Co Co.

    From January 2018 IT article - Number of vacant homes in Dublin said to be between 900 and 1,000 - Local authorities found average actual vacancy rate about 3% of that indicated by CSO




    Given that Fingal are claiming only 64 vacant dwellings across the entire council it was strange to discover that in 2017 there were 121 vacant local authority properties in Fingal according to the National Oversight and Audit Commission

    So almost twice as many vacant properties owned by Fingal Co Co themselves in 2017 as they claimed were vacant "across the entire council area."

    An August 2018 article in the Fingal Independent may explain why Fingal Co Co have such low vacancy figures compared to the CSO and the National Oversight and Audit Commission:



    I think it is safe to assume the census enumerators would have consider boarded up houses as vacant if they found them to be unoccupied.

    Speaking of the census the spokesperson continued:



    A year after rubbishing the census data on the number of vacant units Fingal are quoting it in defence of the number of local authority vacant units.

    Fast forward to August 2020 and Fingal Co Council are not holding back in accepting their share of €40 million for the return of approximately 2,500 vacant local authority properties

    Fingal's share is €1,159,030 - the govt estimates of 12.k per property suggests they are budgeting to refurbish 92 properties, but possibly not the boarded up and unoccupied ones.

    Based on all this I hope the census skeptics will forgive me if I prefer to rely on the CSO data.

    Instinct tells me they are simply a more credible source.

    Probably none of them has the right vacancy numbers, and everyone has different methodology.
    But yes better look why other reports are not good, and not Census one.
    I provided details about areas around me, why Census recorded 50% vacancy, in census thread:
    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058102792&page=2

    but you not interested why Census may result in wrong vacancy rates, but instead searching why some other reports may have wrong results.


  • Options
    #5980
    OwlsZat
    Registered Users Posts: 1,510 ✭✭✭OwlsZat


    Augeo wrote: »
    Davy wouldn't be biased towards Irish residential letting. They're a stockbroker..... They get their cut regardless of what folk invest in with them.

    Davy heavily pushed the commercial property bubble. Perhaps they predicted a residential drop to lessen the blow to the investors they swindled.


  • Options
    #5981
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,802 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Marius34 wrote: »
    Probably none of them has the right vacancy numbers, and everyone has different methodology.
    But yes better look why other reports are not good, and not Census one.
    I provided details about areas around me, why Census recorded 50% vacancy, in census thread:
    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058102792&page=2

    but you not interested why Census may result in wrong vacancy rates, but instead searching why some other reports may have wrong results.

    The main point of my post was that routinely posters claim Fingal Co Co have proven the census data to be false. They have proven no such thing as far as I can see.

    I have said repeatedly that my mind is open to the idea that the census figures may be flawed if somebody shows me why/how, but that's not Fingal Co Co's desktop study.

    So maybe it is your findings. How do you know that the census recorded the properties you refer to in Parkside and New Priory as vacant?


  • Advertisement
  • Options
    #5982
    Marius34
    Registered Users Posts: 1,173 ✭✭✭Marius34


    schmittel wrote: »
    The main point of my post was that routinely posters claim Fingal Co Co have proven the census data to be false. They have proven no such thing as far as I can see.

    I have said repeatedly that my mind is open to the idea that the census figures may be flawed if somebody shows me why/how, but that's not Fingal Co Co's desktop study.

    So maybe it is your findings. How do you know that the census recorded the properties you refer to in Parkside and New Priory as vacant?

    I have posted a map, Census provides location with boundaries, telling how many properties there was on the night of census, and how many vacant in that specific area.


  • Options
    #5983
    Ninap
    Registered Users Posts: 534 ✭✭✭Ninap


    Ninap wrote: »
    Yeah, we’re not counting our chickens until we get the cash. But the buyer seems good. And yes, we thought a small reduction was reasonable given the uncertainty. But we are probably like a lot of people - if we don’t get close to asking we’ll hold on and sell later

    Closed sale last week. Now renting and looking to buy. Most things we’ve looked to at seem to have gone sale agreed pretty quickly. No obvious bargains


  • Options
    #5984
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,802 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Marius34 wrote: »
    I have posted a map, Census provides location with boundaries, telling how many properties there was on the night of census, and how many vacant in that specific area.

    Annoyingly the vacancy layer on the map does not seem to be functional now.

    Edit to add - now you've reminded me there is actually a dedicated thread for this I'll pick it up over there, as I know how the mods disapprove of going off on such tangents in this thread. (notwithstanding the fact it was a mod who kicked this off again!)


  • Options
    #5985
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 17,728 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    OwlsZat wrote: »
    Davy heavily pushed the commercial property bubble. Perhaps they predicted a residential drop to lessen the blow to the investors they swindled.

    Not foreseeing a pandemic isn't quite swindling.
    Any Davy stuff I've seen or events I've been at always encourages diversification.
    ........
    What is the Davy Irish Property Fund
    The Davy Irish Property Fund invests in a unique portfolio of prominent commercial buildings, located predominantly in Dublin city centre. It has been created to deliver long-term value with both office holdings in the heart of Dublin's corporate landscape, as well as prime retail locations.

    Established over 40 years ago, the fund offers an exciting investment opportunity and access to highly-experienced fund managers.

    The Davy Irish Property Fund is a Qualifying Investor Alternative Investment Fund (QIAIF). To invest in the Davy Irish Property Fund you must meet the criteria of a Qualifying Investor'


    ...... The requirements for liquidity, diversification, restrictions on borrowing and leverage, applicable to a UCITS fund do not apply to a QIF.

    It's all quite transparent, if someone put their wad or a significant proportion of it into Dublin commercial property I'd not say they were swindled really. As an investment time will tell how badly or otherwise it all pans out.


  • Options
    #5986
    Assetbacked
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,969 ✭✭✭Assetbacked


    Augeo wrote: »
    Not foreseeing a pandemic isn't quite swindling.
    Any Davy stuff I've seen or events I've been at always encourages diversification.
    ........
    What is the Davy Irish Property Fund
    The Davy Irish Property Fund invests in a unique portfolio of prominent commercial buildings, located predominantly in Dublin city centre. It has been created to deliver long-term value with both office holdings in the heart of Dublin's corporate landscape, as well as prime retail locations.

    Established over 40 years ago, the fund offers an exciting investment opportunity and access to highly-experienced fund managers.

    The Davy Irish Property Fund is a Qualifying Investor Alternative Investment Fund (QIAIF). To invest in the Davy Irish Property Fund you must meet the criteria of a Qualifying Investor'


    ...... The requirements for liquidity, diversification, restrictions on borrowing and leverage, applicable to a UCITS fund do not apply to a QIF.

    It's all quite transparent, if someone put their wad or a significant proportion of it into Dublin commercial property I'd not say they were swindled really. As an investment time will tell how badly or otherwise it all pans out.

    They also have Davy Target Investments Icav and Elm Long Income Icav as their property funds, which aren't clearly found from their website.

    Davy will have seen the Sorting Office letting to Google collapse and will be worried about its ownership of some of the land at the AIB bank centre in Ballsbridge which is being developed to house thousands of Facebook staff, including many that have not yet been hired. Might explain their "anecdotal" evidence that MNCs alllwed thousands of staff to leave Ireland and there is due to be a few thousand returning to bolster the rental market, possibly looking to return physically to the office, in the next few months.

    https://www.rte.ie/amp/1009659/


  • Options
    #5987
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 17,728 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Assetbacked wrote: »
    They also have Davy Target Investments Icav and Elm Long Income Icav as their property funds, which aren't clearly found from their website.

    Davy will have seen the Sorting Office letting to Google collapse and will be worried about its ownership of some of the land at the AIB bank centre in Ballsbridge which is being developed to house thousands of Facebook staff, including many that have not yet been hired. Might explain their "anecdotal" evidence that MNCs alllwed thousands of staff to leave Ireland and there is due to be a few thousand returning to bolster the rental market, possibly looking to return physically to the office, in the next few months.

    https://www.rte.ie/amp/1009659/

    I was replying to someone who claimed Davy had swindled commercial property investors.

    The pandemic, was as I mentioned, unforeseen.
    One can encounter a drop in a portfolio without being swindled.... Markets are like that.


  • Options
    #5988
    Assetbacked
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,969 ✭✭✭Assetbacked


    Augeo wrote: »
    I was replying to someone who claimed Davy had swindled commercial property investors.

    The pandemic, was as I mentioned, unforeseen.
    One can encounter a drop in a portfolio without being swindled.... Markets are like that.

    Yes, there is no actual evidence of this far as I'm aware. Davy seem to be quite legitimate currently.


  • Options
    #5989
    thefridge2006
    Registered Users Posts: 220 ✭✭thefridge2006


    Assetbacked wrote: »
    They also have Davy Target Investments Icav and Elm Long Income Icav as their property funds, which aren't clearly found from their website.

    Davy will have seen the Sorting Office letting to Google collapse and will be worried about its ownership of some of the land at the AIB bank centre in Ballsbridge which is being developed to house thousands of Facebook staff, including many that have not yet been hired. Might explain their "anecdotal" evidence that MNCs alllwed thousands of staff to leave Ireland and there is due to be a few thousand returning to bolster the rental market, possibly looking to return physically to the office, in the next few months.

    https://www.rte.ie/amp/1009659/

    "Everything is grand here folks, please don't pull your investment money... they'll be back i swear....big surge on the way and big dividends to be paid, just please don't take your money out....."

    Is the reasoning IMO behind this made up report with made up numbers and claims. Quiet a disgrace really and I wouldn't like to find out that's the type of professionals who are looking after my money


  • Options
    #5990
    Hubertj
    Registered Users Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    Assetbacked wrote: »
    They also have Davy Target Investments Icav and Elm Long Income Icav as their property funds, which aren't clearly found from their website.

    Davy will have seen the Sorting Office letting to Google collapse and will be worried about its ownership of some of the land at the AIB bank centre in Ballsbridge which is being developed to house thousands of Facebook staff, including many that have not yet been hired. Might explain their "anecdotal" evidence that MNCs alllwed thousands of staff to leave Ireland and there is due to be a few thousand returning to bolster the rental market, possibly looking to return physically to the office, in the next few months.

    https://www.rte.ie/amp/1009659/

    So MNCs definitely allowed workers to go home.

    Regarding Facebook and Zuckerbergs comments on allowing wfh forever worth noting they were negotiations for additional office spaces in NYC. Good negotiating tactic.
    https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2020/08/03/nyregion/facebook-nyc-office-farley-building.amp.html


  • Options
    #5991
    JimmyVik
    Registered Users Posts: 5,368 ✭✭✭JimmyVik


    I know my company get significant grants and tax breaks and a condition is that those grants and breaks are given based on employees being resident in Ireland.
    A few people have returned to the uk and other countries during the pandemic as they are working from home.
    They have been told that they have to be resident in Ireland to continue working for the company.
    So I dont know how thats going to work out for them if they stay over there any longer.


  • Advertisement
  • Options
    #5992
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 17,728 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    thefridge2006 wrote: »
    "Everything is grand here folks, please don't pull your investment money... they'll be back i swear....big surge on the way and big dividends to be paid, just please don't take your money out....."

    Is the reasoning IMO behind this made up report with made up numbers and claims. Quiet a disgrace really and I wouldn't like to find out that's the type of professionals who are looking after my money

    Why would they fabricate a report that thousands of tech workers left the country when that's a negative for their fund?


  • Options
    #5993
    Assetbacked
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,969 ✭✭✭Assetbacked


    Augeo wrote: »
    Why would they fabricate a report that thousands of tech workers left the country when that's a negative for their fund?

    Because it is a way of explaining "the last few months may seem bad but just to note that a lot of employees left the country and they will be back, thereby boosting demand for rentals and office space". The rental market is a bubble, a small shock of a couple thousand MNC workers going on is not as significant as their report indicates, there is a massive covid shock which is accelerating the deflation of the rental bubble.


  • Options
    #5994
    PropQueries
    Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    Assetbacked wrote: »
    Because it is a way of explaining "the last few months may seem bad but just to note that a lot of employees left the country and they will be back, thereby boosting demand for rentals and office space". The rental market is a bubble, a small shock of a couple thousand MNC workers going on is not as significant as their report indicates, there is a massive covid shock which is accelerating the deflation of the rental bubble.

    While Google have basically stated the Davy report was nonsense, in relation to their company anyway, I think the more important information (not in the report) is that residential construction will fall to c. 18,000 units this year from a projected c. 23,000 units pre-covid.

    This fall in residential construction will be in addition to less offices, hotels, student accommodation units etc. being built over the next 5 years which will have a much more significant downward impact on both jobs and the demand for homes in the short to medium term.

    Also, if house prices start showing a material decline, the banks won't be able to provide as much cash in home equity release finance to fund home refurbishments, extensions etc. for the next few years, which would also impact on the number of construction jobs over the next 5 years.


  • Options
    #5995
    Sleepy
    Registered Users Posts: 24,171 ✭✭✭✭Sleepy


    I can see a nice little black market in mail forwarding developing as people charge MNC workers on permanent work-from-home contracts a few quid to send on their official mail to their actual (oversees) residence.


  • Options
    #5996
    Cyrus
    Registered Users Posts: 19,847 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    Sleepy wrote: »
    I can see a nice little black market in mail forwarding developing as people charge MNC workers on permanent work-from-home contracts a few quid to send on their official mail to their actual (oversees) residence.

    people underestimate how big a risk this is for companies, tax inspectors in places like spain take great glee in taking cases for exactly this kind of thing.


  • Options
    #5997
    Bass Reeves
    Registered Users Posts: 18,231 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    Sleepy wrote: »
    I can see a nice little black market in mail forwarding developing as people charge MNC workers on permanent work-from-home contracts a few quid to send on their official mail to their actual (oversees) residence.

    The risk would be huge for the employee. Employers would be within there rights to terminate employment if an employee was.bot fulfilling there obligation to be resident in Ireland.

    As the pandemic ends expect employers to.want workers in the workplace 1-2 days a week. Not all jobs can be completely WFH.

    If it a requirement to be resident in Ireland as a condition of your employment most employees will abide by it.

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Options
    #5998
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 17,728 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Assetbacked wrote: »
    Because it is a way of explaining "the last few months may seem bad but just to note that a lot of employees left the country and they will be back, thereby boosting demand for rentals and office space". The rental market is a bubble, a small shock of a couple thousand MNC workers going on is not as significant as their report indicates, there is a massive covid shock which is accelerating the deflation of the rental bubble.

    The Davy report was a load of fluff........

    The Davy report says that the figures come from “anecdotal” sources.

    “There are no data on the number of employees that left Ireland and could now return,” the report says. “However, the anecdotal evidence is that these companies were surprised by the number of those who left the country after announcing that they could work from home. Google has around 7,000 staff in Dublin and we believe that as many as 30pc may have left Ireland temporarily due to COVID-19. This equates to over 2,000 people, which could provide demand for as many as 1,000 units with much of this coming from the rental market.”


    Folks seem overly keen to try and attach significance to what's essentially marketing t0ss.

    Any sane person reading that would be thinking even if a couple of thousand left they might well have kept paying their rent as they didn't know how long they were leaving for.

    I personally reckon Dublin city residential rents are likely to fall purely due to the tourism impact and tech workers won't take up the slack but that's neither here nor there.


  • Options
    #5999
    JimmyVik
    Registered Users Posts: 5,368 ✭✭✭JimmyVik


    Sleepy wrote: »
    I can see a nice little black market in mail forwarding developing as people charge MNC workers on permanent work-from-home contracts a few quid to send on their official mail to their actual (oversees) residence.




    and VPNs :)


  • Options
    #6000
    BrosnanL27
    Registered Users Posts: 122 ✭✭BrosnanL27


    Hi all, does anybody know if H2B has to be used as part of the deposit for a new build or can it be drawn down at any time (preferably later into the sale after the deposit has been paid out of our own savings)? Thanks


  • Advertisement
  • Options
    #6001
    mees2020
    Registered Users Posts: 10 ✭mees2020


    I work for MNC. Just to add couple points to WFH discussion, which are probably obvious.

    A lot of Irish employees also return to their home towns. I personally know two Irish colleagues, who dropped their lease in Dublin in a favor of going back to their small towns in Kilkenny and Galway counties. Saving lot of money now according to them and they also can see their relatives and friends every day.
    Secondly, we just hired three engineers and two of them based outside the Big Smoke. Company doesn't ask them to relocate to Dublin or visit the office once a week/month, they are perfectly fine to WFH as long as they are employed.
    This is a "new normal" for IT industry as it seems to me. So, if someone can save 1k+ per month by moving out of Dublin, they will surely do.
    Imho, for IT industry an exodus from Dublin is inevitable.
    All IT companies are now conducting internal surveys re WFH and WFH wins by big from what I know, 95% of employees prefer to work from home forever. No wonder there is buying queue for houses with a good broadband.

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/social-affairs/more-than-30-people-queue-overnight-to-secure-property-in-carlow-1.4365816
    https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/broadband-home-office-garden-house-buyers-quit-cities-for-home-towns-as-remote-working-trend-continues-39567484.html

    And there is no discrimination over location in terms of the payment, i.e. engineer from Leitrim will be paid as much as a Dublin based worker.


This discussion has been closed.
Advertisement