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Sweden avoiding lockdown

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    #3422
    sydthebeat
    Subscribers Posts: 41,249 ✭✭✭✭sydthebeat


    its very worrying when sweden are so far behind in their death reporting.

    i have been keeping an eye on the dates of 28th and 29th April as a sample investigation into their reporting.

    They initially reported these days in the high 20's low 30's... but were at 82 each for the last couple of weeks.

    However just checking today and the 29th has gone up to 84, which means 2 additional deaths have been added to that date in the last few days... so one has to ask... how inept is the administration if there are historical deaths been added to the numbers a whole 58 days after the death occurs??

    is it a deliberate attempt to try to hide deaths over time, like painting another layer onto already horrific numbers?


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    #3423
    Bit cynical
    Registered Users Posts: 2,338 ✭✭✭Bit cynical


    sydthebeat wrote: »
    its very worrying when sweden are so far behind in their death reporting.

    i have been keeping an eye on the dates of 28th and 29th April as a sample investigation into their reporting.

    They initially reported these days in the high 20's low 30's... but were at 82 each for the last couple of weeks.

    However just checking today and the 29th has gone up to 84, which means 2 additional deaths have been added to that date in the last few days... so one has to ask... how inept is the administration if there are historical deaths been added to the numbers a whole 58 days after the death occurs??

    is it a deliberate attempt to try to hide deaths over time, like painting another layer onto already horrific numbers?


    Can you post your source for these figures?


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    #3424
    tobefrank321
    Registered Users Posts: 4,470 ✭✭✭tobefrank321


    sydthebeat wrote: »
    its very worrying when sweden are so far behind in their death reporting.

    i have been keeping an eye on the dates of 28th and 29th April as a sample investigation into their reporting.

    They initially reported these days in the high 20's low 30's... but were at 82 each for the last couple of weeks.

    However just checking today and the 29th has gone up to 84, which means 2 additional deaths have been added to that date in the last few days... so one has to ask... how inept is the administration if there are historical deaths been added to the numbers a whole 58 days after the death occurs??

    is it a deliberate attempt to try to hide deaths over time, like painting another layer onto already horrific numbers?

    It seems to be not confined to Sweden. UK's numbers are completely unreliable. Something like 43k confirmed deaths, but excess deaths are up on 65k. Some of these 65k are probably not covid 19 related, but most would be. New York added 1500 nursing home deaths in one day as they forgot to include them, something similar happened in France. There is no way the Brazil figures are reliable or China's. Even in Ireland we backdated many deaths. There seems to be general issues confirming deaths. Probably the most important figure is total deaths.


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    #3425
    Ha Long Bay
    Registered Users Posts: 14,683 ✭✭✭✭Ha Long Bay


    Bit cynical wrote: »
    Can you post your source for these figures?



    Official figures are on this website.

    https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa


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    #3426
    sydthebeat
    Subscribers Posts: 41,249 ✭✭✭✭sydthebeat


    Bit cynical wrote: »
    Can you post your source for these figures?

    sure

    https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa

    check 'Avlidna per dag' for deaths per day.

    also see my posts on this issue as part of this thread:

    my first post on this from 01/05/2020
    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=113327439&postcount=1524

    04/05/2020
    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=113343592&postcount=1608

    07/05/2020
    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=113371448&postcount=1872

    13/05/2020
    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=113428122&postcount=2240

    20/05/2020
    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=113494988&postcount=2482

    and as of today the figures are
    28th April 82
    29th April 84


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    #3427
    Bit cynical
    Registered Users Posts: 2,338 ✭✭✭Bit cynical


    charlie14 wrote: »
    I saw that, and if they are correct it is not that bad in fairness.
    It might be worth noting though that is a projection from the Dept of Finance of a government that backed this strategy.
    Their Central bank had a gloomier worst case figure of -9.7% depending on how long the present Covid-10 situation prevailed in Sweden.

    I saw a few reports that Sweden are not being projected to bounce back next year as well as many others in Europe though.
    Statista for example has their GDP 2021 growth at 4.3% whereas Ireland`s is 6.1%
    I think the problem with these earlier figures which are now quite out of date was that they were dependent on assumptions about how the outbreak would proceed and the measures taken against it. I believe I pointed this out at the time.

    At the time of the earlier forecasts it was widely believed that Sweden's health service would quickly become overwhelmed and that they would be forced to introduce the sorts of lockdown other countries imposed. In this case the economic outlook would be much worse. It is possible that Swedish central bank's forecast reflects this assumption.

    Conversely, the initial durations of lockdowns announced by governments outside Sweden were quite short. Though many suspected the lockdowns would last longer, perhaps the IMF in their earlier forecasts did not fully take into account that they would go on as long as they did. They may also have had more faith in the effectiveness of track and trace methods back then too.

    In any case, a lot more is known now and we must go with the more recent estimates.


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    #3428
    is_that_so
    Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    tobefrank321 wrote: »
    It seems to be not confined to Sweden. UK's numbers are completely unreliable. Something like 43k confirmed deaths, but excess deaths are up on 65k. Some of these 65k are probably not covid 19 related, but most would be. New York added 1500 nursing home deaths in one day as they forgot to include them, something similar happened in France. There is no way the Brazil figures are reliable or China's. Even in Ireland we backdated many deaths. There seems to be general issues confirming deaths.
    Our backdating is down to the reporting of deaths, which legally can take up to 3 months. It is generally accepted that our COVID deaths, both definite and probable are fairly accurate.


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    #3429
    Bit cynical
    Registered Users Posts: 2,338 ✭✭✭Bit cynical


    sydthebeat wrote: »
    sure

    https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa

    check 'Avlidna per dag' for deaths per day.

    also see my posts on this issue as part of this thread:

    my first post on this from 01/05/2020
    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=113327439&postcount=1524

    04/05/2020
    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=113343592&postcount=1608

    07/05/2020
    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=113371448&postcount=1872

    13/05/2020
    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=113428122&postcount=2240

    20/05/2020
    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=113494988&postcount=2482

    and as of today the figures are
    28th April 82
    29th April 84
    Yes, it can take about two weeks for some deaths to be reported. A very small number take longer and most take about a week.

    But these figures are based on the date of death not date of reporting like Ireland and other countries.

    If you want something comparable to what Ireland or other countries provide, then look at deaths reported on a given day. They don't change.


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    #3430
    sydthebeat
    Subscribers Posts: 41,249 ✭✭✭✭sydthebeat


    Bit cynical wrote: »
    Yes, it can take about two weeks for some deaths to be reported. A very small number take longer and most take about a week.

    But these figures are based on the date of death not date of reporting like Ireland and other countries.

    If you want something comparable to what Ireland or other countries provide, then look at deaths reported on a given day. They don't change.

    the whole problem with looking at the "deaths reported on a given day" aspect is the inability to track patterns where the approach is working or not.

    you only have to look at this clusterfcuk of a graph to see that their "daily death reports" are all over the place

    Screenshot-1.jpg

    this graph of their actual daily deaths is much more useful in seeing the trend, especially when you follow the figures.

    Screenshot-4.jpg

    its hard to believe both these graphs are reporting the same basic statistics.




    im not sure why your applying some comparison to ireland.

    The whole reason i started watching these figures was because posters were pointing to the daily death report sand saying "hey look swedens approach is really working, deaths are so low"... when in reality their daily reported figures..... on saturdays and sundays were so significantly artificially reduced.


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    #3431
    biko
    Registered Users Posts: 81,223 ✭✭✭✭biko


    65137 official cases
    5280 officially dead
    8% of known cases have passed

    Numbers from FHMs own tracking page
    https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa


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    #3432
    tobefrank321
    Registered Users Posts: 4,470 ✭✭✭tobefrank321


    is_that_so wrote: »
    Our backdating is down to the reporting of deaths, which legally can take up to 3 months. It is generally accepted that our COVID deaths, both definite and probable are fairly accurate.

    The same might also apply in Sweden. I don't really get why if we are a couple months late reporting a death or deaths due to legal requirements, its been described as being thorough etc, but when Sweden do similar, its looked at differently. Fact is reporting of covid 19 deaths take time and its better to take time to report them correctly than make guesses. When Tony Holohan reports 1 death notified today, that death could have happened a month or so ago. Its only now being notified.

    I never questioned our covid deaths accuracy. There are delays in every country was the point I was making. I don't believe the Swedes are engaged in a conspiracy to hide deaths, but maybe they could tighten up their reporting or do it better.


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    #3433
    is_that_so
    Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    tobefrank321 wrote: »
    The same might also apply in Sweden. I don't really get why if we are a couple months late reporting a death or deaths due to legal requirements, its been described as being thorough etc, but when Sweden do similar, its looked at differently. Fact is reporting of covid 19 deaths take time and its better to take time to report them correctly than make guesses. When Tony Holohan reports 1 death notified today, that death could have happened a month or so ago. Its only now being notified though. I never questioned our covid deaths accuracy. There are delays in every country was the point I was making.
    The delay here is because the law says up to 3 months is allowed. CMO has suggested that should come down to a month, but it requires legislative change. We don't really know what other countries have been counting and reporting but we know that ours are COVID or probably COVID from everywhere.


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    #3434
    tobefrank321
    Registered Users Posts: 4,470 ✭✭✭tobefrank321


    is_that_so wrote: »
    The delay here is because the law says up to 3 months is allowed. CMO has suggested that should come down to a month, but it requires legislative change. We don't really know what other countries have been counting and reporting but we know that ours are COVID or probably COVID from everywhere.

    We do know Sweden are counting care home and nursing home deaths and always have been.


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    #3435
    bb1234567
    Registered Users Posts: 5,496 ✭✭✭bb1234567


    tobefrank321 wrote: »
    It seems to be not confined to Sweden. UK's numbers are completely unreliable. Something like 43k confirmed deaths, but excess deaths are up on 65k. Some of these 65k are probably not covid 19 related, but most would be. New York added 1500 nursing home deaths in one day as they forgot to include them, something similar happened in France. There is no way the Brazil figures are reliable or China's. Even in Ireland we backdated many deaths. There seems to be general issues confirming deaths. Probably the most important figure is total deaths.

    Mexico , Iran ,Peru, Ecuador, Indonesia even worse, the unaccounted deaths in those countries may add up to over 100,000. Sweden as countries go is reporting deaths extremely accurately


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    #3436
    tobefrank321
    Registered Users Posts: 4,470 ✭✭✭tobefrank321


    bb1234567 wrote: »
    Mexico , Iran ,Peru, Ecuador, Indonesia even worse, the unaccounted deaths in those countries may add up to over 100,000. Sweden as countries go is reporting deaths extremely accurately

    Agreed.


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    #3437
    is_that_so
    Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    tobefrank321 wrote: »
    We do know Sweden are counting care home and nursing home deaths and always have been.
    But not probables.


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    #3438
    Bit cynical
    Registered Users Posts: 2,338 ✭✭✭Bit cynical


    sydthebeat wrote: »
    im not sure why your applying some comparison to ireland.

    The whole reason i started watching these figures was because posters were pointing to the daily death report sand saying "hey look swedens approach is really working, deaths are so low"... when in reality their daily reported figures..... on saturdays and sundays were so significantly artificially reduced.
    But then during the week the figures are artificially high and other people point these out as an indication that instead of the reality of falling numbers, the numbers are going up. This has been a problem since the peak back in April.

    The answer to this is not to rely on single day's figures but look at longer term trends.

    The source you use does give a smoother curve but the problem is that you have to ignore the most recent period of between 10 to 14 days as these days are likely to be updated more often.


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    #3439
    sydthebeat
    Subscribers Posts: 41,249 ✭✭✭✭sydthebeat


    Bit cynical wrote: »

    The answer to this is not to rely on single day's figures but look at longer term trends.

    The source you use does give a smoother curve but the problem is that you have to ignore the most recent period of between 10 to 14 days as these days are likely to be updated more often.

    Pretty much exactly what I've done.

    Problem is when we find cases of them adding to historical numbers from 58 days ago, it leads to asking WHY they are so inept at the administration of their system


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    #3440
    Bit cynical
    Registered Users Posts: 2,338 ✭✭✭Bit cynical


    sydthebeat wrote: »
    Pretty much exactly what I've done.

    Problem is when we find cases of them adding to historical numbers from 58 days ago, it leads to asking WHY they are so inept at the administration of their system
    But fairly small numbers involve this sort of lag. But, yes, to the extent that this is the case, had they been quicker reporting these then we would see a steeper decline in the daily reported deaths.


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    #3441
    mosii
    Registered Users Posts: 328 ✭✭mosii


    900 more deaths then Ireland,as far as i can see on John Hopkins Chart.


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    #3442
    cnocbui
    Registered Users Posts: 19,916 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    And Belgium has had nearly 4,500 more deaths than Sweden, from fewer cases, so Sweden must be doing something wrong.


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    #3443
    is_that_so
    Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    CMO and Philip Nolan took a pop at Sweden, suppress the virus first!


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    #3444
    greyday
    Registered Users Posts: 678 ✭✭✭greyday


    is_that_so wrote: »
    CMO and Philip Nolan took a pop at Sweden, suppress the virus first!

    Which is what the non gambling Countries are doing.


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    #3445
    fisgon
    Registered Users Posts: 1,747 ✭✭✭fisgon


    Swedish journalist on the lack of real debate in the Swedish media....

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jun/26/swedish-exceptionalism-coronavirus-covid19-death-toll


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    #3446
    charlie14
    Registered Users Posts: 14,925 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    tobefrank321 wrote: »
    I saw a report somewhere that Sweden's hospitality industry, particularly hotels, held up reasonably well during the covid peak, possibly the only country in the world where hotel bookings didn't collapse to virtually zero.

    I would say a lot of Swedish businesses were saved, small businesses like cafes and small hotels. We can't say the same in other countries where large numbers of businesses have gone to the wall because of covid 19.


    It is difficult to know just how well they held up with not using lockdown.
    A banking survey posted here some time ago found when comparing Sweden and Denmark that consumer spending in Sweden was just 4% greater than Denmark which was in lockdown.


    The real problem for that sector of businesses going forward will be in tourism.

    In 2017 30 Million tourists visited Sweden, with tourism contributed 15 Bn USD to the Swedish economy. Close to 3% of GDP.
    As Sweden is now, those businesses could be waiting a long time before they, (or the Swedish exchequer), see any revenue from tourism


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    #3447
    biko
    Registered Users Posts: 81,223 ✭✭✭✭biko


    After 4 months and 5000 killed it looks like they will comply with their own Communicable Diseases Act and start contact tracing again.


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    #3448
    cnocbui
    Registered Users Posts: 19,916 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    charlie14 wrote: »
    It is difficult to know just how well they held up with not using lockdown.
    A banking survey posted here some time ago found when comparing Sweden and Denmark that consumer spending in Sweden was just 4% greater than Denmark which was in lockdown.


    The real problem for that sector of businesses going forward will be in tourism.

    In 2017 30 Million tourists visited Sweden, with tourism contributed 15 Bn USD to the Swedish economy. Close to 3% of GDP.
    As Sweden is now, those businesses could be waiting a long time before they, (or the Swedish exchequer), see any revenue from tourism

    Worldwide the tourism sector is worth at least 10% of global GDP. The virus free advocates would see that wiped out in total.

    The only reasonable way forward is for the vulnerable to self isolate, IMO, and to get the world's economies going again.


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    #3449
    charlie14
    Registered Users Posts: 14,925 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    cnocbui wrote: »
    Worldwide the tourism sector is worth at least 10% of global GDP. The virus free advocates would see that wiped out in total.

    The only reasonable way forward is for the vulnerable to self isolate, IMO, and to get the world's economies going again.


    Those that are vulnerable to this virus are the big money tickets for countries as regards tourism. I cannot see many of them planning visits to Sweden anytime soon.

    FAIK Sweden was doing well from cruises before this pandemic. Another area where those that are vulnerable would be in high numbers.



    Tourist, even those that are not vulnerable, I imagine will be looking at countries where numbers are low and are serious about attempting to control the spread before they decide on a destination.
    1988 a fear of typhoid wiped out Salou Spain`s tourism and it took it years to recover.
    People go on holidays to relax. Not to take risks with their health.


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    #3450
    cnocbui
    Registered Users Posts: 19,916 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Let them wear masks.


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    #3451
    charlie14
    Registered Users Posts: 14,925 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    cnocbui wrote: »
    Let them wear masks.


    I don`t think you get the concept that people go on holidays to relax. Not to risk their health.
    Even if they did wish to go to Sweden and wear a mask it still would not work
    Wearing masks primarily prevent you from infecting others by spreading the virus.

    You could also end up playing double jeopardy with your health and wellbeing in Sweden by being attacked for wearing one.


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