Football ranking table

pipelaser wrote: »

Meath very much an unknown at this moment as well, I doubt they're that much better than Kildare, and I think Monaghan would beat them 8 times out of 10...
If Meath lose to Dublin by 10 points or less, do they still gain points on this scoring system?

I agree with you on the Kildare - Meath comparison, although Meath did get promoted from Div 2 while Kildare did not.

No rating points gained for losing unfortunately!

Attached is the prediction model output for this weekend, along with what might be some interesting points below.

• Antrim have never beaten Kildare in their 6 previous league and championship meetings but which Kildare will show up this time?
• Derry seem to be on a roll recently, and home advantage should certainly help against Laois
• Can Longford continue the giant-slaying act against Tyrone? Other teams have come undone here.......but the model says NO
• Monaghan are on quite a poor run of form, but they always seem to have enough for Armagh
• A first-ever championship meeting for Clare and Leitrim
• Zero wins from 14 encounters (league and championship) for Limerick against Westmeath, I don't expect that to change here
• Meath have done better than expected in 5 of their last 6 championship run-ins with Dublin
• Donegal are really on an excellent run of form, and they seem to nearly always do well against Cavan
• Another first-time meeting, this time between Offaly and Sligo; Sligo have lost their last 10 games

tl;dr
Kerry by 5.3
Mayo by 4.9
Kildare by 4.2
Derry by 0.7
Tyrone by 6.8
Monaghan by 3.5
Clare by 3.1
Westmeath by 6.9
Dublin by 5.5
Donegal by 1.6
Offaly by 4.1

I didn't get time to post the prediction model output last week but it went along the general lines of this weekend's results, predicting 3 point wins for Tyrone, Mayo and Laois, and a draw in the Westmeath-Clare game.

• Clare gained the most this weekend following their away win against Westmeath
• Mayo and Tyrone also increased their worth by 1.88 and 1.72 rating points, respectively
• Armagh are the highest-ranked casualty to date (10th) of this championship

#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating
1 | = | Dublin | 107.30 | 0.00
2 | = | Donegal | 103.46 | 0.00
3 | ▲ | Tyrone | 102.60 | 1.72
4 | ▼ | Kerry | 102.07 | 0.00
5 | = | Roscommon | 98.79 | 0.00
6 | ▲ | Mayo | 97.09 | 1.88
7 | ▼ | Galway | 95.41 | 0.00
8 | = | Cavan | 93.10 | 0.00
9 | = | Meath | 92.70 | 0.00
10 | = | Armagh | 90.71 | -1.88
11 | ▲ 2 | Clare | 87.28 | 2.19
12 | ▼ | Kildare | 86.90 | -1.72
13 | ▼ | Monaghan | 85.29 | 0.00
14 | = | Laois | 84.48 | 0.27
15 | = | Cork | 82.85 | 0.00
16 | = | Fermanagh | 82.18 | 0.00
17 | = | Longford | 81.03 | 0.00
18 | ▲ | Down | 77.58 | 0.00
19 | ▼ | Westmeath | 75.87 | -2.19
20 | = | Derry | 73.88 | 0.00
21 | = | Offaly | 73.30 | -0.27
22 | = | Antrim | 71.93 | 0.00
23 | = | Carlow | 69.90 | 0.00
24 | = | Leitrim | 69.23 | 0.00
25 | = | Tipperary | 66.70 | 0.00
26 | = | Limerick | 66.50 | 0.00
27 | = | Louth | 65.97 | 0.00
28 | = | Sligo | 63.95 | 0.00
29 | = | Waterford | 63.26 | 0.00
30 | = | Wicklow | 59.22 | 0.00
31 | = | Wexford | 58.79 | 0.00
32 | = | New York | 55.07 | 0.00
33 | = | London | 52.06 | 0.00

Hammer Archer wrote: »

Out of interest, with Meath drawing Clare in the first championship meeting between the two, have Meath played every single team in the championship apart from London at some stage?
I think you had a list of ties that had never happened but I can't find it.

The thread was here, but I need to update it as there were some errors, most notably where it says that Meath have never met Roscommon (91 All-Ireland semi-final from memory and from Liam Hayes's book).

In any case, from what I had found previously, Meath have never met Sligo nor Waterford, in addition to New York or London.

Hammer Archer wrote: »

We played Sligo for the first time in 2017 in the qualifiers.
I'm pretty sure I remember us playing Waterford in the qualifiers in Navan in 2007 or 2009.

Dickie10 wrote: »

meath played waterford in 2009 and rossies again in 2006. played tipperary in an all ireland final i think

I definitely need to look at this again, it seems that there were more errors than I thought!

Hammer Archer wrote: »

Meath are down as playing Roscommon 4 times in the SFC in your table and Waterford once so I think it's pretty much spot on. Only one missing was the meeting with Sligo but that was the year you did the table.

It seems that is depends on how the table is read, vertically and horizontally give different data.........it's a shambles

No time at all to look at this now, maybe if I get divorced.....

• Meath have hit heights not seen since Feb 2011, they now sit in 7th
• Cork’s win sees Monaghan slip to 14th, their lowest since July 2016
• Galway are the only top 8 team not in the Super 8s
• 3rd, 4th, 5th and 7th ranked are in one group of the Super 8s; 1st, 2nd, 6th and 11th in the second

For the rest of the championship, I will only show the top 16 of the table below.

#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating
1 | = | Dublin | 107.30 | 0.00
2 | ▲ | Tyrone | 104.25 | 1.65
3 | ▼ | Donegal | 103.46 | 0.00
4 | = | Kerry | 102.07 | 0.00
5 | ▲ | Mayo | 99.75 | 2.66
6 | ▼ | Roscommon | 98.79 | 0.00
7 | ▲ 2 | Meath | 94.62 | 1.92
8 | ▼ | Galway | 92.75 | -2.66
9 | ▼ | Cavan | 91.45 | -1.65
10 | = | Armagh | 90.71 | 0.00
11 | ▲ 4 | Cork | 87.84 | 4.99
12 | = | Kildare | 86.90 | 0.00
13 | ▼ 2 | Clare | 85.36 | -1.92
14 | ▼ | Monaghan | 85.29 | 0.00
15 | ▲ | Fermanagh | 82.18 | 0.00
16 | ▲ | Longford | 81.03 | 0.00
17 | ▼ 3 | Laois | 79.49 | -4.99
18 | = | Down | 77.58 | 0.00
19 | = | Westmeath | 75.87 | 0.00
20 | = | Derry | 73.88 | 0.00
21 | = | Offaly | 73.30 | 0.00
22 | = | Antrim | 71.93 | 0.00
23 | = | Carlow | 69.90 | 0.00
24 | = | Leitrim | 69.23 | 0.00
25 | = | Tipperary | 66.70 | 0.00
26 | = | Limerick | 66.50 | 0.00
27 | = | Louth | 65.97 | 0.00
28 | = | Sligo | 63.95 | 0.00
29 | = | Waterford | 63.26 | 0.00
30 | = | Wicklow | 59.22 | 0.00
31 | = | Wexford | 58.79 | 0.00
32 | = | New York | 55.07 | 0.00
33 | = | London | 52.06 | 0.00

• Both Kerry and Tyrone gained well from their wins at home and away, respectively, last weekend and close the gap to Dublin
• Donegal also picked up a few crumbs in their win over Meath, but nothing for Dublin (discrimination, I know......;) )
• A bonus point win for either Kerry or Donegal this weekend might result in them pipping Dublin and breaking their stranglehold on 1st place in the rankings!

#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating
1 | = | Dublin | 107.30 | 0.00
2 | = | Tyrone | 106.76 | 2.51
3 | ▲ | Kerry | 104.97 | 2.90
4 | ▼ | Donegal | 104.41 | 0.95
5 | = | Mayo | 96.85 | -2.90
6 | = | Roscommon | 96.28 | -2.51
7 | = | Meath | 93.67 | -0.95
8 | = | Galway | 92.75 | 0.00
9 | = | Cavan | 91.45 | 0.00
10 | = | Armagh | 90.71 | 0.00
11 | = | Cork | 87.84 | 0.00
12 | = | Kildare | 86.90 | 0.00
13 | = | Clare | 85.36 | 0.00
14 | = | Monaghan | 85.29 | 0.00
15 | = | Fermanagh | 82.18 | 0.00
16 | = | Longford | 81.03 | 0.00

• Donegal have been the model of consistency this championship, kicking approximately 4-5 points more than what the rating model has predicted; Mayo have been slightly erratic (poor result against Kerry followed by a big win against Meath) but home form has to mean something (even if Castlebar is not a fortress) – this has all the makings of a draw
• Meath have conceded some big scores this year, and with an exuberant attacking platform, Kerry will plan to continue that script
• Hard to call the 2 dead-rubbers as the prediction model (attached) is not made for these scenarios – Cork might have home pride to play for; Tyrone might have an eye on the semi-final one week later. Two more draws??

tl;dr
Mayo by 1.8
Kerry by 3.5
Cork by 0.1
Dublin by 0.1

Apart from the 2015 replay, Dublin have had real trouble putting Mayo away like they have done with almost every other team. It looks like the rating model can pick up on this, as they are predicting a pretty nervy win - Dublin by 3.6

Kerry seem to mix the good with the bad, whereas Tyrone's recent form has been more steady (with the exception of Cork who put in better than expected showings against everyone, and with the exception of the last Super 8s game, which didn't mean anything). Looking at all previous meetings between these teams, rating difference doesn't appear to at all matter, so the model is probably taking an average of all games involving all teams - Kerry by 2

I would have liked to have more time to go into depth on this year's final, but time is not on my side unfortunately.

There are surely some interesting points to be pulled from the high scoring averages between Dublin and Kerry from recent meetings, and whether this might indicate a closer game than Dublin have experienced so far this year.

There might also be something on the average winning margin on the way to an All-Ireland, or on events preceding the eventual demise of 5-in-a-row seeking teams.

Also, Dublin's use of substitutes, long appreciated as the keystone of their success, appears to have changed somewhat this year, but only a proper analysis would help to separate fact from guesswork.

The prediction model output is attached; the model is going for a surprisingly low winning margin, but then again, it is always conservative. Dublin by 1.9!

Not much more to add from the analysis prior to the drawn game, except that Kerry have done better than predicted in 5 of their previous 6 meetings with Dublin. The prediction model (full output attached) is still going with Dublin.

Dublin by 1.6.

I started last year’s league preview wondering if Dublin could make it 6 from 7 and whether Mayo would avoid the drop. Crystal ball my ar$e.

No mad predictions this year, except that I am tipping Galway to win the league......

As in previous years, I have ranked teams in each division based on their rating points. This has been previously shown to give some indication of whether a team will finish in relegation/promotion territory.

2020 NFL
Div 1| Rating| Div 2| Rating| Div 3| Rating| Div 4| Rating
Dublin |115|Roscommon|98|Cork|86|Antrim|72
Kerry |107|Cavan|91|Longford|81|Carlow|70
Mayo|103|Armagh|91|Down|78|Limerick|67
Donegal|101|Kildare|87|Derry|74|Sligo|64
Tyrone|99|Clare|85|Offaly|73|Waterford|63
Galway|93|Fermanagh|82|Leitrim|69|Wicklow|59
Meath|89|Laois|79|Tipperary|67|Wexford|59
Monaghan|85|Westmeath|76|Louth|66|London|52

• Many expect Kerry to continue their push from last year and to go well in this league, and why not? Galway are quite lowly-rated compared to others but a new manager and new playing style might change that. However, it is difficult to gauge the appetite of other teams for this Division 1, except for the desire to stay there. Meath and Monaghan have most to fear
• In Division 2, Roscommon appear to have a clear head-start over the rest of the field, but consistency has never been their strong point. Cavan’s squad has changed a lot recently and they will do well to challenge Armagh and Kildare for a possible 2nd promotion spot. Hard to call between Clare, Fermanagh, Laois and Westmeath for the drop
• Top of Division 3 has higher rating points than bottom of Division 1! Cork appear destined to make their stay in this division a short one – Longford, Down and Derry will also be in the hunt for promotion and a guarantee of Tier 1 status for the championship. Leitrim, Tipperary (although they may be artificially low after a disastrous 2019) and Louth to battle for relegation
• Division 4 appears to be a three-horse race between Antrim, Carlow and Limerick. Sligo and Waterford might create a shock or two along the way

Previous year's finishes: tables are sorted by rating or ranking position prior to start of the league, colour indicate top 2 finish (green) or bottom 2 finish (red)

2019 NFL
Div 1| Rating| Div 2| Rating| Div 3| Rating| Div 4| Rating
Dublin | 114|Donegal|95|Laois|86|Leitrim|70
Tyrone |106|Kildare|90|Carlow|80|Derry|70
Monaghan|104|Armagh|87|Longford|80|Antrim|66
Kerry|100|Cork|86|Down|77|Waterford|63
Galway|100|Clare|84|Sligo|74|Wexford|61
Mayo|91|Fermanagh|84|Westmeath|72|Limerick|61
Roscommon|88|Meath|80|Offaly|72|Wicklow|61
Cavan|85|Tipperary|78|Louth|63|London|52

2018 NFL
Div 1| Rating| Div 2| Rating| Div 3| Rating| Div 4| Rating
Dublin | 111|Roscommon|91|Armagh|91|Carlow|73
Mayo |104|Cork|88|Westmeath|81|Laois|73
Kerry|101|Tipperary|85|Derry|79|Antrim|69
Tyrone|100|Clare|85|Longford|78|Limerick|65
Monaghan|93|Meath|83|Sligo|77|Leitrim|65
Galway|93|Down|82|Fermanagh|75|Waterford|57
Kildare|90|Cavan|82|Offaly|73|Wicklow|56
Donegal|88|Louth|69|Wexford|71|London|54

2017 NFL
Div 1| Rating| Div 2| Rating| Div 3| Rating| Div 4| Rating
Dublin | 111 | Clare | 91| Tipperary | 92| Westmeath | 84
Kerry | 103 | Galway | 89 | Longford | 80| Wexford | 72
Mayo | 103 | Cork | 88| Laois | 78| Limerick | 71
Tyrone | 97 | Derry| 85 | Offaly | 77| Carlow | 64
Donegal | 96| Kildare | 84 | Sligo | 75| Leitrim | 63
Monaghan | 84| Fermanagh| 84| Armagh | 74 | Wicklow | 59
Roscommon | 83 | Meath | 82| Louth | 73 | London | 58
Cavan| 83 | Down | 73|Antrim | 68 | Waterford | 57

2016 NFL
Div 1| Rating| Div 2| Rating| Div 3| Rating| Div 4| Rating
Dublin | 109 | Tyrone | 96 | Kildare | 93 | Wexford | 76
Kerry | 104 | Galway | 90 | Westmeath | 81 | Antrim | 72
Mayo | 100 | Fermanagh| 89 | Sligo | 81 | Louth | 70
Donegal | 96 | Derry| 86 | Tipperary | 79 | Leitrim | 65
Monaghan | 96 | Meath | 83 | Longford | 78 | Wicklow | 61
Cork | 89 | Armagh | 83 | Clare | 73 | London | 61
Roscommon | 84 | Cavan | 75 | Limerick | 72 | Carlow | 61
Down| 77 | Laois | 72 | Offaly | 71 | Waterford | 56

2015 NFL
Div 1| Rank| Div 2| Rank| Div 3| Rank| Div 4| Rank
Kerry | 1 | Kildare | 9 | Armagh | 7 | Longford | 22
Donegal | 2 | Meath | 10 | Tipperary | 15 | Antrim | 26
Dublin | 3 | Galway | 11 | Louth | 18 | Wicklow | 27
Mayo | 4 | Roscommon | 13 | Wexford | 19 | Leitrim | 28
Monaghan | 5 | Laois | 14 | Clare | 20 | Offaly | 29
Cork | 6 | Down | 16 | Fermanagh | 23 | London | 30
Tyrone | 8 | Cavan | 17 | Limerick | 24 | Carlow | 31
Derry | 12 | Westmeath | 21 | Sligo | 25 | Waterford | 32

2014 NFL
Div 1| Rank| Div 2| Rank| Div 3| Rank| Div 4| Rank
Dublin | 1 | Donegal | 6 | Cavan | 12 | Tipperary | 20
Mayo | 2 | Monaghan | 7 | Wexford | 17 | Antrim | 26
Kerry | 3 | Meath | 9 | Roscommon | 19 | Clare | 27
Tyrone | 4 | Down | 10 | Limerick | 21 | Wicklow | 28
Cork | 5 | Laois | 11 | Fermanagh | 22 | London | 29
Kildare | 8 | Galway | 14 | Longford | 23 | Waterford | 30
Derry | 13 | Louth | 15 | Offaly | 24 | Leitrim | 31
Westmeath | 18 | Armagh | 16 | Sligo | 25 | Carlow | 32

2013 NFL
Div 1| Rank| Div 2| Rank| Div 3| Rank| Div 4| Rank
Donegal | 1 | Laois | 9 | Meath | 10 | Limerick | 17
Cork | 2 | Armagh | 11 | Sligo | 15 | Tipperary | 20
Mayo | 3 | Wexford | 12 | Monaghan | 19 | Clare | 25
Kerry | 4 | Derry | 13 | Roscommon | 21 | Offaly | 27
Dublin | 5 | Galway | 14 | Antrim | 22 | Leitrim | 28
Tyrone | 6 | Westmeath | 16 | Cavan | 24 | Carlow | 29
Kildare | 7 | Longford | 18 | Wicklow | 26 | Waterford | 31
Down | 8 | Louth | 23 | Fermanagh | 30 | London | 33

The trend since 2013 is starting to balance out, especially with 3 Munster teams finishing in the bottom 2 of their divisions in 2019.

Finishes per province (2013-2019 combined)

Province| Top 2 | Bottom 2
Leinster | 21 | 24
Ulster | 18 | 16
Connacht | 6 | 9*
Munster | 9 | 5
*Connacht's 9 bottom 2 finishes are not helped by London finishing last in Div 4 during 6 of the last 7 years.[/QUOTE]

And the rankings after the first round of the league.....lots of rating points exchanged but little movement overall.

#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating
1 | = | Dublin | 113.72 | -1.11
2 | = | Kerry | 107.87 | 1.11
3 | = | Mayo | 102.91 | 0.15
4 | = | Donegal | 101.15 | -0.15
5 | = | Tyrone | 99.63 | 0.17
6 | = | Roscommon | 96.45 | -1.50
7 | = | Galway | 93.20 | 0.45
8 | ▲ | Armagh | 92.62 | 1.91
9 | ▼ | Cavan | 89.54 | -1.91
10 | = | Meath | 88.97 | -0.17
11 | = | Kildare | 87.63 | 0.73
12 | = | Cork | 85.87 | 0.00
13 | ▲ | Monaghan | 84.84 | -0.45
14 | ▼ | Clare | 83.21 | -2.15
15 | = | Fermanagh | 81.45 | -0.73
16 | = | Longford | 81.03 | 0.00
17 | = | Laois | 81.00 | 1.50
18 | ▲ | Westmeath | 78.02 | 2.15
19 | ▼ | Down | 76.79 | -0.79
20 | ▲ | Offaly | 73.31 | 0.00
21 | ▼ | Derry | 73.12 | -0.76
22 | = | Antrim | 71.93 | 0.00
23 | = | Carlow | 70.03 | 0.13
24 | = | Leitrim | 69.99 | 0.76
25 | ▲ | Limerick | 67.98 | 1.48
26 | ▼ | Tipperary | 67.50 | 0.79
27 | = | Louth | 65.97 | 0.00
28 | = | Sligo | 64.86 | 0.92
29 | = | Waterford | 61.78 | -1.48
30 | = | Wicklow | 59.08 | -0.13
31 | = | Wexford | 58.79 | 0.00
32 | = | New York | 55.07 | 0.00
33 | = | London | 51.14 | -0.92

Prediction model output for this weekend:

Game|Prediction
Mayo vs Dublin | Dublin by 3.2
Kerry vs Galway | Kerry by 7.7
Laois vs Armagh | Armagh by 4
Cavan vs Westmeath | Cavan by 7.3
Down vs Derry | Down by 2.2
Wexford vs Carlow | Carlow by 1.7
Monaghan vs Tyrone | Tyrone by 4.7
Meath vs Donegal | Donegal by 2.9
Clare vs Kildare | Kildare by 1.7
Fermanagh vs Roscommon | Roscommon by 5.3
Louth vs Tipperary | Louth by 1.6
Leitrim vs Cork | Cork by 7.3
Offaly vs Longford | Longford by 0.9
Limerick vs London | Limerick by 9.8
Wicklow vs Waterford | Wicklow by 1.1
Sligo vs Antrim | Antrim by 2.3

A few shock results the weekend gone by have changed the pecking order for some.........

#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating
1 | = | Dublin | 114.80 | 1.08
2 | = | Kerry | 107.87 | 0.00
3 | ▲ | Donegal | 102.02 | 0.87
4 | ▼ | Mayo | 101.83 | -1.08
5 | = | Tyrone | 96.95 | -2.68
6 | = | Roscommon | 93.75 | -2.70
7 | = | Galway | 93.20 | 0.00
8 | ▲ | Cavan | 89.59 | 0.05
9 | ▼ | Armagh | 89.08 | -3.54
10 | = | Meath | 88.10 | -0.87
11 | ▲ 2 | Monaghan | 87.52 | 2.68
12 | = | Cork | 86.19 | 0.32
13 | ▼ 2 | Kildare | 85.99 | -1.64
14 | = | Clare | 84.85 | 1.64
15 | ▲ 2 | Laois | 84.54 | 3.54
16 | ▼ | Fermanagh | 84.15 | 2.70
17 | ▼ | Longford | 80.56 | -0.47
18 | = | Westmeath | 77.97 | -0.05
19 | = | Down | 77.62 | 0.83
20 | = | Offaly | 73.78 | 0.47
21 | = | Derry | 72.29 | -0.83
22 | = | Antrim | 70.02 | -1.91
23 | ▲ | Leitrim | 69.67 | -0.32
24 | ▲ 2 | Tipperary | 69.15 | 1.65
25 | = | Limerick | 67.98 | 0.00
26 | ▲ 2 | Sligo | 66.77 | 1.91
27 | ▼ 4 | Carlow | 66.54 | -3.49
28 | ▼ | Louth | 64.32 | -1.65
29 | ▲ 2 | Wexford | 62.28 | 3.49
30 | = | Wicklow | 61.29 | 2.21
31 | ▼ 2 | Waterford | 59.57 | -2.21
32 | = | New York | 55.07 | 0.00
33 | = | London | 51.14 | 0.00