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Super easy & quick vanilla cake - a Werewolf recipe

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    #332
    Baggly
    Registered Users Posts: 35,024 ✭✭✭✭Baggly


    Tritium is ded and was an NRV.


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    #333
    sKeith
    Closed Accounts Posts: 13,404 ✭✭✭✭sKeith


    sKeith wrote: »
    kol & qb-> trit
    sm -> duff
    virt -> molly
    sk -> virt
    trit -> sm
    mol -> sk

    1 left, duff.


    is this wrong?
    2
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1


    2 is lynched


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    #334
    quickbeam
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 16,287 Mod ✭✭✭✭quickbeam


    We voted Trit, Pter. We just need to know what his role was.

    sKeith Virtanen 282
    Kolido Tritium 288
    Tritium Strawberry Milkshake 283
    quickbeam Tritium 312
    Strawberry Milkshake duffman13 224
    Mollyb60 sKeith 299
    Virtanen Mollyb60 281
    duffman13 DID NOT VOTE


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    #335
    Kolido
    Registered Users Posts: 13,358 ✭✭✭✭Kolido


    You on the sauce?


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    #336
    Virtanen
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,288 ✭✭✭Virtanen


    Pter wrote: »
    Tritium is ded and was an NRV.

    Well balls

    Can we have the rand instead?


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    #337
    quickbeam
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 16,287 Mod ✭✭✭✭quickbeam


    Sh!t!!!! Sorry Trit :(


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    #338
    Baggly
    Registered Users Posts: 35,024 ✭✭✭✭Baggly


    Kolido wrote:
    You on the sauce?


    Sadly no. Some unexpected RL stuff came up. Sorry all.


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    #339
    quickbeam
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 16,287 Mod ✭✭✭✭quickbeam


    Pter wrote: »
    Sadly no. Some unexpected RL stuff came up. Sorry all.

    Hope all is okay.


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    #340
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Pter wrote: »
    Sadly no. Some unexpected RL stuff came up. Sorry all.

    Don’t worry about us we’ll self declare.

    You look after RL


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    #341
    Baggly
    Registered Users Posts: 35,024 ✭✭✭✭Baggly


    Nah it's grand thanks. Just sick kids being sick. They are medicined and asleep now.


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    #342
    Baggly
    Registered Users Posts: 35,024 ✭✭✭✭Baggly


    On the plus side we now know what will happen if there is another tie where everyone is excluded from the tie breaker vote.


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    #343
    Baggly
    Registered Users Posts: 35,024 ✭✭✭✭Baggly


    Next action is munch at 10am


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    #344
    quickbeam
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 16,287 Mod ✭✭✭✭quickbeam


    At least our chances at tomorrow's lynch increase :rolleyes:

    One of us dead at munch leaves 2/6, or 33.3% chance of lynching correctly.

    Am wondering if Duffman is really a wolf would he have missed a lynch vote?

    It would leave two wolves among:

    sKeith
    Kolido
    quickbeam
    Strawberry Milkshake
    Mollyb60
    Virtanen


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    #345
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    New list of team possibilities

    sKeith & Kolido
    sKeith & quickbeam
    sKeith & Strawberry Milkshake
    sKeith & Mollyb60
    sKeith & Virtanen
    sKeith & duffman13
    Kolido & quick-beam
    Kolido & Strawberry Milkshake
    Kolido & Mollyb60
    Kolido & Virtanen
    Kolido & duffman13
    quickbeam & Strawberry Milkshake
    quickbeam & Mollyb60
    quickbeam & Virtanen
    quickbeam & duffman13
    Strawberry Milkshake & Mollyb60
    Strawberry Milkshake & Virtanen
    Strawberry Milkshake & duffman13
    Mollyb60 & Virtanen
    Mollyb60 & duffman13
    Virtanen & duffman13


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    #346
    quickbeam
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 16,287 Mod ✭✭✭✭quickbeam


    My own personal list now has Kolido on more teams than anyone else. I'd rejected him as he seemed villagery. I think I need to do an ISO and see what I can see.


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    #347
    sKeith
    Closed Accounts Posts: 13,404 ✭✭✭✭sKeith


    Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »
    New list of team possibilities


    quickbeam & Strawberry Milkshake


    Is that all the possibilities?


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    #348
    Kolido
    Registered Users Posts: 13,358 ✭✭✭✭Kolido


    quickbeam wrote: »
    At least our chances at tomorrow's lynch increase :rolleyes:

    One of us dead at munch leaves 2/6, or 33.3% chance of lynching correctly.

    Am wondering if Duffman is really a wolf would he have missed a lynch vote?

    It would leave two wolves among:

    sKeith
    Kolido
    quickbeam
    Strawberry Milkshake
    Mollyb60
    Virtanen

    You voted for Trit lastly, hoping duffers didn't get online, you could have taken it to a tie break.

    Bit of a wolfy move, not risking the tie breaker/rand


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    #349
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    It’s not me.


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    #350
    Mollyb60
    Registered Users Posts: 6,560 ✭✭✭Mollyb60


    Ok I'm heading to bed but tomorrow I may look into who has interacted with who on the thread.
    night folks.


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    #351
    quickbeam
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 16,287 Mod ✭✭✭✭quickbeam


    quickbeam wrote: »
    Nine players, two wolves. I think it’s a fairly safe assumption that there’s a wolf in the first five posters alright! Statistically speaking.

    I probably should have said: "safe assumption there's at least one wolf in the first five posters..." I didn't mean there could only be one in the first five, but Kolido's reply is interesting - directing us to the last four, of which he is one.
    Kolido wrote: »
    Going on that assumption, there should be an equal chance there is a wolf in the last 4 posters, giving us better odds.

    First five:
    quickbeam
    Mollyb60
    Virtanen
    sKeith
    Tritium

    Last four:
    Strawberry Milkshake
    kitten_k
    duffman13
    Kolido

    If we were to assume Kolido was a wolf, then it'd be a strange move, to direct us to the pile that he is already on? Is there any reason a wolf-Kolido might actually do this, or does it semi-clear him? Especially now we know that one of the last four definitely isn't a wolf (Kitten).


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    #352
    quickbeam
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 16,287 Mod ✭✭✭✭quickbeam


    Kolido wrote: »
    You voted for Trit lastly, hoping duffers didn't get online, you could have taken it to a tie break.

    Bit of a wolfy move, not risking the tie breaker/rand

    Being the second last to vote, there was very few ways I could have voted to take it to a tie-break. If I'd gone for those on my FFA, Strawbs or Molly, it'd have been the same result (I don't mean NRV dead, I don't know that, but same meaning no rand). If I'd voted yourself or Duffman it could have randed things alright. I wasn't going to vote you, I'd never any inkling you were a wolf. Duffman was a possibility alright as he was my sorta-third (if sK would have allowed a third) to my FFA. I drifted off Strawbs and Molly, and took a gut shot based on those left after I ruled out other teams after going through everyone's posts. I'll probably kick myself when game is over and I find out who the wolves really were.


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    #353
    quickbeam
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 16,287 Mod ✭✭✭✭quickbeam


    sKeith wrote: »
    Is that all the possibilities?

    Yes, 21 combinations from 7 players left. But if you're a villager you can take your name out of six of them leaving 15 combinations for you to review.


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    #354
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    I’d already voted duffman?

    The only ones who never received votes was QB and kolido. I would have loved to see the rand mechanic. So if you voted Kolido it was up to duff man to vote you or break the tie.


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    #355
    quickbeam
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 16,287 Mod ✭✭✭✭quickbeam


    Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »
    I’d already voted duffman?

    The only ones who never received votes was QB and kolido. I would have loved to see the rand mechanic. So if you voted Kolido it was up to duff man to vote you or break the tie.

    Oh yeah, sorry. Was mixing up who hadn't voted and who hadn't been voted for. So really I'd have had to vote for Kolido to bring it to a tie, but I'd not have been able to stand over that vote.


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    #356
    sKeith
    Closed Accounts Posts: 13,404 ✭✭✭✭sKeith


    are we allowed to lo lynch, that is the best ting to do tomorrow if we can.

    6 left before lynch, we no lynch, 6 left before munch 5 after. with 2 wolves and 3 villagers.
    it increases are odds of properly finding the wolves from 33/66 to 50/50 for last lynch, if we hit wolf, then its another 50/50 for game ending.
    if we don't do no lynch tomorrow then those odds are 33/66 then 25/75.

    If there was ever a time to argue for no lynch, its tomorrows lynch.


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    #357
    Baggly
    Registered Users Posts: 35,024 ✭✭✭✭Baggly


    If ye don't wanna kill anyone I guess you don't have to. I'll allow it.

    #votenolynch would be how to do it.


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    #358
    quickbeam
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 16,287 Mod ✭✭✭✭quickbeam


    sKeith wrote: »
    are we allowed to lo lynch, that is the best ting to do tomorrow if we can.

    6 left before lynch, we no lynch, 6 left before munch 5 after. with 2 wolves and 3 villagers.
    it increases are odds of properly finding the wolves from 33/66 to 50/50 for last lynch, if we hit wolf, then its another 50/50 for game ending.
    if we don't do no lynch tomorrow then those odds are 33/66 then 25/75.

    If there was ever a time to argue for no lynch, its tomorrows lynch.

    Perhaps. Would wolves be able to carry the lynch by voting off a villager together though?


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    #359
    sKeith
    Closed Accounts Posts: 13,404 ✭✭✭✭sKeith


    quickbeam wrote: »
    Perhaps. Would wolves be able to carry the lynch by voting off a villager together though?
    no.


    village outnumbers them 2 to 4 tomorrow, it would be suicide to out themselves.


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    #360
    Virtanen
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,288 ✭✭✭Virtanen


    quickbeam wrote: »
    I probably should have said: "safe assumption there's at least one wolf in the first five posters..." I didn't mean there could only be one in the first five, but Kolido's reply is interesting - directing us to the last four, of which he is one.



    First five:
    quickbeam
    Mollyb60
    Virtanen
    sKeith
    Tritium

    Last four:
    Strawberry Milkshake
    kitten_k
    duffman13
    Kolido

    If we were to assume Kolido was a wolf, then it'd be a strange move, to direct us to the pile that he is already on? Is there any reason a wolf-Kolido might actually do this, or does it semi-clear him? Especially now we know that one of the last four definitely isn't a wolf (Kitten).

    Proves absolutely nothing about Kolido IMO, what he said is true based on the conjecture that, according to probability, there's a wolf in the top 5. The same could be said for any random grouping of players

    What I'd like to know is why Kolido voted for Trit. He's been mostly absent all day and had provided very little reasoning for his vote


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    #361
    sKeith
    Closed Accounts Posts: 13,404 ✭✭✭✭sKeith


    so, everybody vote nolynch, then then wolves remove 1 more person, reducing the chance of hitting that final mislynch, I probably wont be around, but figure it out yourselves, its the best move for the village.


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