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Crossing the Border in the event of Brexit: Whats gonna happen?

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    #62
    Fred Swanson
    Closed Accounts Posts: 21,730 ✭✭✭✭Fred Swanson


    This post has been deleted.


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    #63
    murphaph
    Registered Users Posts: 19,018 ✭✭✭✭murphaph


    What I believe will happen:
    Nothing much will change. Some fudges will be made so things stay as they are at the border, with possible spot checks for customs or whatever. Our EU partners are not so insensitive as to force us (somehow) to police the border with NI like it's the Polish border with Ukraine or something. They understand the repercussions this could have.

    Likewise, even the hardline Brexiters in GB will see the danger in fortifying the UK's side of the border for fear of derailing the peace process and throwing us back to the days of republican terrorism, possibly entailing bombs on the British mainland not just in NI. Not worth the risk IMO.

    A blind eye will be turned to the border if the Brexiters prevail, mark my words.


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    #64
    First Up
    Registered Users Posts: 14,822 ✭✭✭✭First Up


    murphaph wrote: »

    A blind eye will be turned to the border if the Brexiters prevail, mark my words.

    As succinct a representation of the Brexit position as you will find. Pretend it isn't there.

    Pathetic.


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    #65
    Del.Monte
    Registered Users Posts: 12,363 ✭✭✭✭Del.Monte


    murphaph wrote: »
    What I believe will happen:
    Nothing much will change. Some fudges will be made so things stay as they are at the border, with possible spot checks for customs or whatever. Our EU partners are not so insensitive as to force us (somehow) to police the border with NI like it's the Polish border with Ukraine or something. They understand the repercussions this could have.

    Likewise, even the hardline Brexiters in GB will see the danger in fortifying the UK's side of the border for fear of derailing the peace process and throwing us back to the days of republican terrorism, possibly entailing bombs on the British mainland not just in NI. Not worth the risk IMO.

    A blind eye will be turned to the border if the Brexiters prevail, mark my words.

    Given that immigration into the UK is one of the reasons that many will vote to leave the EU a hard border will be inevitable. Also, in the unlikely event of a Brexit another Scottish referendum will follow and a break-up of the UK. Then we will really be in uncharted water.

    ****



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    #66
    magicbastarder
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 48,467 CMod ✭✭✭✭magicbastarder


    think of all the petrol stations just on our side of the border. there will be carnage.


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    #67
    timmyntc
    Registered Users Posts: 6,827 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    Del.Monte wrote: »
    Given that immigration into the UK is one of the reasons that many will vote to leave the EU a hard border will be inevitable. Also, in the unlikely event of a Brexit another Scottish referendum will follow and a break-up of the UK. Then we will really be in uncharted water.

    Recently conducted polls show that, despite wanting to stay in the EU, the majority of Scots would still stay in the UK upon a Brexit.
    First Up wrote:
    As succinct a representation of the Brexit position as you will find. Pretend it isn't there.

    Pathetic.

    Care to elaborate on that? Or are you just sh*t flinging and making obviously untrue generalizations?


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    #68
    First Up
    Registered Users Posts: 14,822 ✭✭✭✭First Up


    Del.Monte wrote:
    Given that immigration into the UK is one of the reasons that many will vote to leave the EU a hard border will be inevitable. Also, in the unlikely event of a Brexit another Scottish referendum will follow and a break-up of the UK. Then we will really be in uncharted water.


    Whatever about the impact on the cohesion of the UK, the fantasy that Ireland North and South would be allowed operate a cosy local arrangment is jaw droppingly niave.

    The UK will neither leave an open back door on the Irish border, nor impose an internal border between NI and the rest of the UK.

    Ireland will not be allowed leave an open back door for non-EU (of UK origin or transit) imports, nor will Irish exports to the rest of the EU have to suffer additional procedures to ensure we are not being so used.

    The border between the EU and the UK will be in Louth, Monaghan, Cavan, Leitrim and Donegal.


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    #69
    Fred Swanson
    Closed Accounts Posts: 21,730 ✭✭✭✭Fred Swanson


    This post has been deleted.


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    #70
    First Up
    Registered Users Posts: 14,822 ✭✭✭✭First Up


    timmyntc wrote:
    Care to elaborate on that? Or are you just sh*t flinging and making obviously untrue generalizations?

    The Brexit argument is that somehow everything will be grand and if they close their eyes firmly enough, all this legal and economic mumbo jumbo will just go away.

    I watched Nigel Lawson give a good demonstration of this today.


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    #71
    First Up
    Registered Users Posts: 14,822 ✭✭✭✭First Up


    Fred Swanson wrote:
    I wonder would something like that be viable here?


    Who would be expected to police it?


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    #72
    timmyntc
    Registered Users Posts: 6,827 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    First Up wrote: »
    The Brexit argument is that somehow everything will be grand and if they close their eyes firmly enough, all this legal and economic mumbo jumbo will just go away.

    I watched Nigel Lawson give a good demonstration of this today.

    That's not the Brexit argument, that's the argument that you attribute to the Brexit side, for god knows what reason.


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    #73
    First Up
    Registered Users Posts: 14,822 ✭✭✭✭First Up


    timmyntc wrote:
    That's not the Brexit argument, that's the argument that you attribute to the Brexit side, for god knows what reason.

    The reason being the absence of any other.


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    #74
    timmyntc
    Registered Users Posts: 6,827 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    First Up wrote: »
    The reason being the absence of any other.

    No, the reason being you ignore or discredit all the many arguments out there, simply because it suits your point of view.


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    #75
    Carawaystick
    Registered Users Posts: 8,779 ✭✭✭Carawaystick


    First Up wrote: »
    Whatever about the impact on the cohesion of the UK, the fantasy that Ireland North and South would be allowed operate a cosy local arrangment is jaw droppingly niave.

    The UK will neither leave an open back door on the Irish border, nor impose an internal border between NI and the rest of the UK.
    Will they double down on the 20k soldiers they had to stop terrorists crossing the border with guns and explosives in the 70s? Because that didn't work then.
    First Up wrote: »
    Ireland will not be allowed leave an open back door for non-EU (of UK origin or transit) imports, nor will Irish exports to the rest of the EU have to suffer additional procedures to ensure we are not being so used.
    How is that checked at the border crossings between France and Switzerland or Germany and Switzerland?


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    #76
    First Up
    Registered Users Posts: 14,822 ✭✭✭✭First Up


    Carawaystick wrote:
    Will they double down on the 20k soldiers they had to stop terrorists crossing the border with guns and explosives in the 70s? Because that didn't work then.

    Freight traffic isn't smuggled across fields. Illegal immigrants from the EU can certainly hop into NI and you would need to ask the Brexit lot how they propose to deal with that.


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    #77
    First Up
    Registered Users Posts: 14,822 ✭✭✭✭First Up


    Carawaystick wrote:
    How is that checked at the border crossings between France and Switzerland or Germany and Switzerland?

    It isn't because Switzerland has a comprehensive agreement in place with the EU. You should read up on it.


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    #78
    Carawaystick
    Registered Users Posts: 8,779 ✭✭✭Carawaystick


    First Up wrote: »
    It isn't because Switzerland has a comprehensive agreement in place with the EU. You should read up on it.

    You said "Ireland will not be allowed leave an open back door for non-EU (of UK origin or transit) imports" and yet France and Germany do just that.
    First Up wrote:
    Freight traffic isn't smuggled across fields. Illegal immigrants from the EU can certainly hop into NI and you would need to ask the Brexit lot how they propose to deal with that.
    You could ask what Slab Murphy is ultimately in Jail for...

    The Brexiters will take AMurph's point that nothing will change really.


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    #79
    First Up
    Registered Users Posts: 14,822 ✭✭✭✭First Up


    timmyntc wrote:
    No, the reason being you ignore or discredit all the many arguments out there, simply because it suits your point of view.


    Like most serious and objective observers I have looked at all the Leave arguments and found them short of substance.

    The "best of both worlds" strategy of doing a Norway or Switzerland collapses when you look at what those countries have to do in order to access the EU.

    The Leave side has no credible answer on how and on what terms the UK will negotiate trade agreements with the EU or to replace the almost 60 they currently have with other countries as part of the EU. (The answer is "we don't need them" or if we do "we'll get them").

    The specific and almost identical warnings from Bank of England, IMF, World Bank, World Trade Organisation and others are dismissed as "scaremongering" without any counter argument offered.

    The slump in the value of sterling and £65 billion capital flight since March are dismissed as either a temporary blip (you ain't seen nothing yet) or a price worth paying for "independence".

    The reality is that the Brexit argument is an emotional one, based on a nostalgia for the powerful Britain if old, a fear of immigrants who work harder than they do and a general dislike of foreigners.


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    #80
    First Up
    Registered Users Posts: 14,822 ✭✭✭✭First Up


    Carawaystick wrote:
    You said "Ireland will not be allowed leave an open back door for non-EU (of UK origin or transit) imports" and yet France and Germany do just that.

    They do nothing of the sort. You should inform youself a bit better.
    Carawaystick wrote:
    You could ask what Slab Murphy is ultimately in Jail for...
    Are you suggesting that the trade across the border could be left to smugglers?
    Carawaystick wrote:
    The Brexiters will take AMurph's point that nothing will change really.

    Yes, because that is what they want to believe, contrary to all evidence.


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    #81
    CelticRambler
    Registered Users Posts: 6,708 ✭✭✭CelticRambler


    First Up wrote: »
    I'd enjoy watching that scenario unfold in Westminster - and Stormont.

    So would I - because if it comes to pass, the Brexiters will see that their "independence" from the EU is (probably) not worth the referendum paper it was written on.


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    #82
    CelticRambler
    Registered Users Posts: 6,708 ✭✭✭CelticRambler


    Carawaystick wrote: »
    How is that checked at the border crossings between France and Switzerland or Germany and Switzerland?

    Freight traffic is pretty much prohibited on minor roads - many of them are pretty difficult to navigate anyway - HGVs are "supervised" entering the country on official routes with random checks. I've been stopped twice in three years, and I'm not even a proper HGV.

    More to the point, though, this is one of the aspects of the current (very one-sided) negotiations between the Swiss and the EU arising from the Swiss decision to impose migration controls. No migrants = no freight, that's the EU line.

    Why does anyone think that the softly-softly approach that's been tolerated between e.g. Switzerland and Germany or Norway and Sweden will be extended to a post-Brexit UK? There has been no end of "noise" from the EU warning the British of the dire consequences of leaving. If the EU goes easy on the UK, it'll send all the wrong signals to the anti-EU agitators in other countries.


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    #83
    murphaph
    Registered Users Posts: 19,018 ✭✭✭✭murphaph


    If the EU has to take a vindictive, punishing attitude to any nation that dares leave, then I would not consider it a club I'd want to be part of in the first place.


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    #84
    First Up
    Registered Users Posts: 14,822 ✭✭✭✭First Up


    murphaph wrote:
    If the EU has to take a vindictive, punishing attitude to any nation that dares leave, then I would not consider it a club I'd want to be part of in the first place.

    It seems necessary to again remind people that the EU is not a monolith. Its an alliance of 28 countries and if the UK leaves, every one of the other 27 will have a say in what sort of "deal" they get. Some will be relatively sympathetic and conciliatory (including us), some will look to exploit any opportunities arising (also including us) while some will be quite happy to rub their noses in it.

    Nobody will do anything that damages their own interests but nobody will be going out of their way to help them either.

    The old LBJ line about being inside or outside the tent applies - as does the one about "if you are not at the table, you are on it."


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    #85
    Del.Monte
    Registered Users Posts: 12,363 ✭✭✭✭Del.Monte


    First Up wrote: »
    Like most serious and objective observers I have looked at all the Leave arguments and found them short of substance.

    The "best of both worlds" strategy of doing a Norway or Switzerland collapses when you look at what those countries have to do in order to access the EU.

    The Leave side has no credible answer on how and on what terms the UK will negotiate trade agreements with the EU or to replace the almost 60 they currently have with other countries as part of the EU. (The answer is "we don't need them" or if we do "we'll get them").

    The specific and almost identical warnings from Bank of England, IMF, World Bank, World Trade Organisation and others are dismissed as "scaremongering" without any counter argument offered.

    The slump in the value of sterling and £65 billion capital flight since March are dismissed as either a temporary blip (you ain't seen nothing yet) or a price worth paying for "independence".

    The reality is that the Brexit argument is an emotional one, based on a nostalgia for the powerful Britain if old, a fear of immigrants who work harder than they do and a general dislike of foreigners.

    A fear of being swamped by economic and other migrants which the Irish government amongst others are encouraging by their naval presence in the Med.

    ****



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    #86
    First Up
    Registered Users Posts: 14,822 ✭✭✭✭First Up


    Del.Monte wrote:
    A fear of being swamped by economic and other migrants which the Irish government amongst others are encouraging by their naval presence in the Med.


    There are economic migrants from EU countries crossing the Med?

    I think you are a bit mixed up.


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    #87
    KingBrian2
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,363 ✭✭✭KingBrian2


    I've got a way more important Question on my mind. If Britain decides to leave and they win the Euros does that mean they have to give the Cup back?:D


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    #88
    Del.Monte
    Registered Users Posts: 12,363 ✭✭✭✭Del.Monte


    First Up wrote: »
    There are economic migrants from EU countries crossing the Med?

    I think you are a bit mixed up.

    If you aren't aware of the migrant problem in Europe it's you that are a bit mixed up, and you can stop trying to be smart.

    ****



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    #89
    First Up
    Registered Users Posts: 14,822 ✭✭✭✭First Up


    Del.Monte wrote:
    If you aren't aware of the migrant problem in Europe it's you that are a bit mixed up, and you can stop trying to be smart.


    I seem to be a good bit more aware of it than you. The migrants in the Med (economic or otherwise) are not EU citizens. The UK is under no obligation to take migrants from outside the EU and leaving the EU will have no effect on that.


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    #90
    Del.Monte
    Registered Users Posts: 12,363 ✭✭✭✭Del.Monte


    First Up wrote: »
    I seem to be a good bit more aware of it than you. The migrants in the Med (economic or otherwise) are not EU citizens. The UK is under no obligation to take migrants from outside the EU and leaving the EU will have no effect on that.

    No they aren't EU citizens until they set foot in Europe - then the generous EU Germans welcome them in and divide them up amongst the rest of us. Even if the Germans kept them all, do you think they are going to have some special type of citizenship that only allows them reside in Germany?
    Have you been living under a rock for the last couple of years? Anyway, we are miles off topic at this point.

    ****



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    #91
    CelticRambler
    Registered Users Posts: 6,708 ✭✭✭CelticRambler


    Del.Monte wrote: »
    No they aren't EU citizens until they set foot in Europe - then the generous EU Germans welcome them in and divide them up amongst the rest of us.

    Last time I checked (I can almost see it from where I am at the moment) Calais was in France, and there are many thousands of non-EU citizens waiting there in the hope of getting to the UK. What incentive will there be for the French to keep them in the EU if they want to get to a country that's no longer part of it?


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