Crossing the Border in the event of Brexit: Whats gonna happen?

Yggr of Asgard

There are several open borders between EU countries and non EU countries.

Those which are open because both countries are part of Schengen (Norway-Finland or Germany-Switzerland)

Those because of special agreements (Holy Sea-Italy or Italy-San Marino)

Those because of special status (Like French Overseas Territories)

If Ireland does not join Schengen than the main concern on the UK-Irish Border is Customs not immigration due to the Common Travel Area agreement currently in place. Schengen will not care that there is no border control between UK-Ireland because coming from Ireland to the Schengen Area you will be treated as unsafe and continue to queue at passport controls, just like any other non Schengen flight from let's say Egypt.

What changes is that Ireland now has a border to a non EU member and that might create some customs, health control or quarantine requirements but movement of Irish / UK citizens between their countries is not going to be the main challenge there.

In addition it depends on what agreement the UK get's with the EU (EEA like, Special relationship, hostile) once they have transitioned out of the club, by than maybe Ireland is re-united because the UK has broken up with Scotland leaving and the English finally having enough of paying for the NI experiment.

It's way to early to know what will happen to the border if (hopefully) the UK vote's to exit.

coylemj

Yggr of Asgard wrote: »

If Ireland does not join Schengen than the main concern on the UK-Irish Border is Customs not immigration due to the Common Travel Area agreement currently in place. Schengen will not care that there is no border control between UK-Ireland because coming from Ireland to the Schengen Area you will be treated as unsafe and continue to queue at passport controls, just like any other non Schengen flight from let's say Egypt.

Even if we stay out of Schengen, post #Brexit the UK will see the 26 counties as a possible easy transit route (to the UK) for EU citizens such as the people from eastern Europe that Farage and UKIP are continuously railing against. The result is that with the border between NI and the south impossible to seal, they will introduce passport controls for everyone - unionists and fenians alike.

If we do join Schengen then it's goodbye to the Common Travel Area and everyone travelling to GB from Ireland (32 counties) will need a passport, whether they're flying with Ryanair or taking the ferry from Dublin or Belfast.

First Up

Yggr of Asgard wrote:

There are several open borders between EU countries and non EU countries.

None are open. All have strict procedures and obligations as a condition of EU access.

Yggr of Asgard wrote:

Those which are open because both countries are part of Schengen (Norway-Finland or Germany-Switzerland)

Which impose rigorous requirements on the non-EU members to adhere to EU immigration procedures.

Yggr of Asgard wrote:

Those because of special agreements (Holy Sea-Italy or Italy-San Marino)

You could add Andorra, Lichenstein and Monaco. All land locked inside the EU and also required to enforce EU immigration requirements

Yggr of Asgard wrote:

Those because of special status (Like French Overseas Territories)

Technically part of the EU and obliged to follow EU rules.

None of these offers a precedent for back door immigration or unregulated movement of goods. In all cases they in effect administer the EU's external border.

jimmycrackcorm

Walter H Price wrote:

Britiain can well exist comfortably outside the EU , what the constant scaremongering shows is that the EU knows if Britain goes its game over for the whole failed system

Of course Britain will exist comfortably. But it will lost out inevitably because its access to the larger market will be compromised. Ironically, despite immigration being the number one reason for an anti EU vote, it will not prevent a single immigrant congegrating in Calais, nor will it prevent the bulk of immigrants from arriving from Pakistan and India. It will prevent lots of Polish workers arriving, but as we've witnessed here, that's a benefit that the UK will lose out on.

coylemj wrote:

If we do join Schengen then it's goodbye to the Common Travel Area and everyone travelling to GB from Ireland (32 counties) will need a passport, whether they're flying with Ryanair or taking the ferry from Dublin or Belfast.

Most people travel Ryanair with their passport so it won't make a difference. We wont be joining schengen ,The CTA will stay especially when you consider it didnt change in the darkest days of the troubles when London was being bombed.

Why would we join schengen when then reason we haven't is due to our ties to the UK...

First Up

Carawaystick wrote:

You said it was illegal and impossible

All border arrangements between the EU and non member countries involve regulations that impose conditions on the non EU member. It is both illegal and politically impossible for it to be otherwise. What would be the point of the UK leaving the EU in order to prevent inmigration from the likes of Romania and Poland and then allowing unfettered access into the UK from Ireland? You think it is more acceptable politically for the UK to put the border at Stranraer rather than Crossmaglen or outside Newry?

Carawaystick wrote:

the border from Andorra into France

And Andorra with Spain if you like. All of the states and principalities locked inside the EU have terms and conditions on their access to their EU neighbours. None are unregulated.

Carawaystick wrote:

the Border from Swiss to France

Inform yourself of the terms under which the Swiss borders with the EU operate.

KingBrian2

I'm certain the Enterprise will still travel from Dublin to Belfast.

coylemj

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

Why would we join schengen when then reason we haven't is due to our ties to the UK...

Because if the UK introduces passport controls for everyone travelling between the two islands then at that stage it will make no odds so we might as well go ahead and join Schengen so we can at least travel freely between here and mainland Europe.

You and others are adamant that the CTA will remain - why would the UK allow us to act as a back door to all and sundry when their main reason for leaving the EU is to keep out Johnny Foreigner regain control over who can and can not enter their country?

Vic_08

Gotta love all the people on here who are certain one way or another what will happen.

Nobody in the UK government has been able to give a straight answer to any of the practicalities of divorcing from the EU nor have the brexiters, I don't know how any of you can know.

Avatar MIA

Vic_08 wrote: »

Gotta love all the people on here who are certain one way or another what will happen.

Nobody in the UK government has been able to give a straight answer to any of the practicalities of divorcing from the EU nor have the brexiters, I don't know how any of you can know.

It's called discussion and taking a viewpoint.

First Up

KingBrian2 wrote:

I'm certain the Enterprise will still travel from Dublin to Belfast.

And the M1 will still be a road. So what?

First Up

Vic_08 wrote:

Nobody in the UK government has been able to give a straight answer to any of the practicalities of divorcing from the EU nor have the brexiters, I don't know how any of you can know.

The practicalities, mechanisms and legal aspects are perfectly clear and are not negotiable.

Where opinions vary is over what will replace them and the consequences.

LXFlyer

First Up wrote: »

And the M1 will still be a road. So what?

Read the opening post - it was clearly an answer to the question posed in it!

LXFlyer

Avatar MIA wrote: »

It's called discussion and taking a viewpoint.

There's a difference between presenting something as a fact rather than an opinion.

The reality is that where there are politicians involved, anything could happen. Rules may be rules, but rules can be changed.

None of us can say with any certainty what will happen if the UK votes to leave.

First Up

lxflyer wrote: »

There's a difference between presenting something as a fact rather than an opinion.

The reality is that where there are politicians involved, anything could happen. Rules may be rules, but rules can be changed.

None of us can say with any certainty what will happen if the UK votes to leave.

The withdrawal mechanisms are set out in Article 50 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the EU (http://eur-lex.europa.eu/collection/eu-law/treaties-force.html?locale=en). Changes to the Treaty must be ratified by all member states.

The UK will have two years in which to repeal every section of the UK's European Communities Act of 1972 (http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1972/68/contents) and replace or modify each piece of legislation, including the negotiation of new arrangements with the EU that cover the 52 Articles, 37 Protocols and 65 Declarations contained in the current active treaties. In addition, the UK will have to re-negotiate its trade relations with the 58 other countries and trade blocs that it currently operates as a member of the EU. The UK will not be negotiating with Brussels; it will need to agree a deal that meets with the approval of all other 27 EU members.

These are the certainties; the uncertainties include what sort of deals the UK can negotiate with the 27 EU members and with the rest of the world; how the status of UK citizens resident elsewhere in the EU will be affected; how the British political, legal and public administration system can cope with the workload; what the political environment will be like after a Brexit; how the money and stock markets react; the impact on how multinational corporations decide their strategies and locations and what affect all of this will have on employment, economic growth and social harmony.

That doesn't include the Unknown Unknowns as Rumsfeld would say but its enough to be going on with.

Carawaystick

First Up wrote: »

All border arrangements between the EU and non member countries involve regulations that impose conditions on the non EU member.

Inform us of the conditions imposed on Russia by Poland or Latvia or the EU?

LXFlyer

First Up wrote: »

The withdrawal mechanisms are set out in Article 50 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the EU (http://eur-lex.europa.eu/collection/eu-law/treaties-force.html?locale=en). Changes to the Treaty must be ratified by all member states.

The UK will have two years in which to repeal every section of the UK's European Communities Act of 1972 (http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1972/68/contents) and replace or modify each piece of legislation, including the negotiation of new arrangements with the EU that cover the 52 Articles, 37 Protocols and 65 Declarations contained in the current active treaties. In addition, the UK will have to re-negotiate its trade relations with the 58 other countries and trade blocs that it currently operates as a member of the EU. The UK will not be negotiating with Brussels; it will need to agree a deal that meets with the approval of all other 27 EU members.

These are the certainties; the uncertainties include what sort of deals the UK can negotiate with the 27 EU members and with the rest of the world; how the status of UK citizens resident elsewhere in the EU will be affected; how the British political, legal and public administration system can cope with the workload; what the political environment will be like after a Brexit; how the money and stock markets react; the impact on how multinational corporations decide their strategies and locations and what affect all of this will have on employment, economic growth and social harmony.

That doesn't include the Unknown Unknowns as Rumsfeld would say but its enough to be going on with.

I think it's fair to say that the known and unknown unknowns probably outweigh the knowns!!

As I said - it's all well and good having everything laid out - when politicians are involved things can and frequently do change!

First Up

Carawaystick wrote: »

Inform us of the conditions imposed on Russia by Poland or Latvia or the EU?

The EU's external borders with Russia are regulated and subject to visa and other conditions. The EU borders with the enclave of Kaliningrad allow for limited movement of valid Kaliningrad residents into neighbouring EU countries. These borders are also regulated.

First Up

lxflyer wrote: »

I think it's fair to say that the known and unknown unknowns probably outweigh the knowns!!

As I said - it's all well and good having everything laid out - when politicians are involved things can and frequently do change!

Of course; Treaties are amended - as they would be in the event of Brexit. But it doesn't happen quickly or easily and not at the whim of individual politicians - or countries.

LXFlyer

First Up wrote: »

Of course; Treaties are amended - as they would be in the event of Brexit. But it doesn't happen quickly or easily and not at the whim of individual politicians - or countries.

I don't think anyone is suggesting that change will happen overnight but to suggest that everything will happen in a particular way with certainty as some people here seem to be doing is frankly daft.

First Up

lxflyer wrote: »

I don't think anyone is suggesting that change will happen overnight but to suggest that everything will happen in a particular way with certainty as some people here seem to be doing is frankly daft.

Perhaps, but there is plenty of indisputable material (such as the legal implications) on which to draw some conclusions and none of them are positive towards Brexit.

While there is an element of speculation about the rest, uncertainty itself is a major negative. The vague optimism couched in defiance on offer from the Leave campaign stacks up pretty poorly against the sober analysis and forecasts from the likes of the Bank of England, IMF, World Bank, WTO etc.

These are not bearded gurus making predictions from darkened caves.

First Up

lxflyer wrote:

Read the opening post - it was clearly an answer to the question posed in it!

The opening post was about trucks queuing at the border. The Enterprise is a passenger train.

LXFlyer

First Up wrote: »

The opening post was about trucks queuing at the border. The Enterprise is a passenger train.

What do people think is going to happen with regards to the RoI/NI border and commuting and transport?

That seems a pretty general question to me!

First Up

lxflyer wrote: »

That seems a pretty general question to me!

And which part of the question is answered by saying a train will continue to run?

LXFlyer

First Up wrote: »

And which part of the question is answered by saying a train will continue to run?

What will happen to commuting & transport?

I would respectfully suggest that the train does qualify as "transport"?

Frankly your posts are getting overly pedantic here.

The question (to me anyways) was a general question about transport implications - that includes cars, buses, trains and whatever else!

If someone wants to mention the train then I suspect they're entitled to do so in the context of that question.

CelticRambler

I've spend the best part of the last six months wandering up and down the eastern borders of France, crossing over and back into Germany and Switzerland. The idea that it would be "too difficult" to re-instate controls between NI and the Republic is naïve. I had to queue for about 45 minutes to get back into France from Germany on Saturday afternoon. Sure, that might be partially due to the "State of Emergency" still in force here, but funnily enough, the three-lane carriageway in the opposite direction was also reduced to one lane, with the Germans pulling cars out of the line.

It's equally naïve to think the the EU will let Britain (or Ireland) decide how to manage it's frontiers. An example will need to be made to ensure that other EU countries know that voting out is a dangerous and painful choice. Check out the Swiss situation: they're not even part of the EU, but they voted earlier this year to tighten their immigration controls and opt out of Schengen. What's happened? The EU has threatened to suspend all their free-trade agreements if the government implements the controls that the Swiss people voted for - including their financial freedoms (already somewhat limited).

Given the geographical challenges, the potential migration problem and the numerous commercial, social and cultural connections between NI and the Republic that have become so strong since the Good Friday agreement, the only practial solution for the UK will be to create an internal border between NI and GB and tell the unionists they're on their own.

timmyntc

CelticRambler wrote: »

I've spend the best part of the last six months wandering up and down the eastern borders of France, crossing over and back into Germany and Switzerland. The idea that it would be "too difficult" to re-instate controls between NI and the Republic is naïve. I had to queue for about 45 minutes to get back into France from Germany on Saturday afternoon. Sure, that might be partially due to the "State of Emergency" still in force here, but funnily enough, the three-lane carriageway in the opposite direction was also reduced to one lane, with the Germans pulling cars out of the line.

It's equally naïve to think the the EU will let Britain (or Ireland) decide how to manage it's frontiers. An example will need to be made to ensure that other EU countries know that voting out is a dangerous and painful choice. Check out the Swiss situation: they're not even part of the EU, but they voted earlier this year to tighten their immigration controls and opt out of Schengen. What's happened? The EU has threatened to suspend all their free-trade agreements if the government implements the controls that the Swiss people voted for - including their financial freedoms (already somewhat limited).

Given the geographical challenges, the potential migration problem and the numerous commercial, social and cultural connections between NI and the Republic that have become so strong since the Good Friday agreement, the only practial solution for the UK will be to create an internal border between NI and GB and tell the unionists they're on their own.

This is what everyone's been saying for the last few days! It isn't practical to try and police the ROI/NI border, so the border will be drawn at all ports & airports in both ROI and NI with mandatory passport checks.

There likely will be customs checkpoints of some sort on the NI/ROI border however, as movement of goods from an EU state to non EU must go through customs.

First Up

lxflyer wrote:

I would respectfully suggest that the train does qualify as "transport"?

lxflyer wrote:

Frankly your posts are getting overly pedantic here.

Not at all pedantic. Nobody has implied that trains would cease to run any more than roads would be closed. The question is what new controls/checks would be implemented on them.

First Up

CelticRambler wrote:

Given the geographical challenges, the potential migration problem and the numerous commercial, social and cultural connections between NI and the Republic that have become so strong since the Good Friday agreement, the only practial solution for the UK will be to create an internal border between NI and GB and tell the unionists they're on their own.

I'd enjoy watching that scenario unfold in Westminster - and Stormont.

trellheim

Originally Posted by CelticRambler
Given the geographical challenges, the potential migration problem and the numerous commercial, social and cultural connections between NI and the Republic that have become so strong since the Good Friday agreement, the only practial solution for the UK will be to create an internal border between NI and GB and tell the unionists they're on their own.

Your definition of "practical" and mine are very different !

jimmycrackcorm

trellheim wrote:

Your definition of "practical" and mine are very different !

If you travel the N53 from Dundalk to Castleblaney, you would be going in and out of NI like a yoyo.