Milk Price- Please read Mod note in post #1

Farmer Ed · 01-06-2016 10:41AM

http://theglobaldairy.com/noticias/dairy-sector-is-stretched-to-the-limit-warn-vets-47130/

Farmer Ed · 01-06-2016 10:44AM

mf240 wrote: »

Hard to beat a good holstein cow.

Anyone here milking Fleckvieh? I don't know a lot about them. But some interesting reports coming back from trials done in Holland.

jaymla627 · 01-06-2016 10:51AM

Farmer Ed wrote: »

http://theglobaldairy.com/noticias/dairy-sector-is-stretched-to-the-limit-warn-vets-47130/

The independent was fairly bi-polar yesterday with it's articles on one hand you had the above piece and then we had the piece on the Zurich dairy farmer of the year, stand out points where 10% stillborn rate, 14% empty rate last year with a lot of this comprised of 1 st lactation animals and a outbreak of grass tetany this spring that saw one cow dead and another 3 go down....
But of course the main reason he won it was he was feeding little meal and making the cows lick paddocks clean all of which ment he was apparently making 2c/l extra with better grass utilisation and solids but I doubt the above fertility/ herd health problems where factored in

Milked out · 01-06-2016 12:00PM

Farmer Ed wrote: »

mf240 wrote: »

Hard to beat a good holstein cow.

Anyone here milking Fleckvieh? I don't know a lot about them. But some interesting reports coming back from trials done in Holland.

Used a few straws this year, put them in cows that need a bit of capacity but not inclined to go full blown only small trial, some cows getting them were gonna get a beef straw anyway. And if bulls land they should make a bit more than the fr.

Jaysus Christ · 01-06-2016 12:09PM

I've that shed cleaned out.

atlantic mist · 01-06-2016 01:13PM

http://www.agriland.ie/farming-news/frieslandcampina-holds-milk-price-for-june-supplies-of-milk/

getting paid on lactose...

why have our processors not advanced to this stage of paying for lactose also would result in extra few cents

base 2c lower than ours

great to see the gii ceo giving out more production details to farmers journal than at any of our supply information evening, communication is excellent as always

level of debt is a worry, if supplies reduce this cost increases on every liter, profit of 50m with nearly 5 going on interest currently

who is funding cheese expansion is it coop or gii?

Pacoa · 01-06-2016 03:59PM

GDT up 3.4%

AMF index up 2.8%, average price US$3,444/MT
Butter index up 3.2%, average price US$2,762/MT
BMP index up 14.2%, average price US$1,765/MT
Ched index up 7.8%, average price US$2,669/MT
LAC index up 4.7%, average price US$750/MT
RenCas index down 1.6%, average price US$5,035/MT
SMP index up 12.1%, average price US$1,867/MT
WMP index down 1.7%, average price US$2,205/MT

Farmer Ed · 02-06-2016 11:34PM

http://theglobaldairy.com/noticias/dairy-industry-lessons-to-be-learnt-about-china-47187/

whelan2 · 03-06-2016 06:04AM

http://www.farmersjournal.ie/glanbia-co-op-creates-55m-glanbia-advance-payment-scheme-210732 whats the story with this?

Farmer Ed · 03-06-2016 06:28AM

whelan2 wrote: »

http://www.farmersjournal.ie/glanbia-co-op-creates-55m-glanbia-advance-payment-scheme-210732 whats the story with this?

If your really hungry you can eat tomorrow's bread today. Plus you can say goodbye to the millk price league as now there are so many swings and round abouts it's going to be a lot more difficult to figure out who is paying the best price.

If pr people were to dream of a spin Heven it would surely look something like that.

kowtow · 03-06-2016 07:17AM

whelan2 wrote:

whats the story with this?

What I couldn't fathom was the bond issue by the coop to finance the support fund... apparently the bonds are 'exchangeable' against the coops holding in the plc but I couldn't find a deal sheet or prospectus so I don't know on what terms they convert.

mahoney_j · 03-06-2016 07:44AM

jaymla627 wrote: »

The independent was fairly bi-polar yesterday with it's articles on one hand you had the above piece and then we had the piece on the Zurich dairy farmer of the year, stand out points where 10% stillborn rate, 14% empty rate last year with a lot of this comprised of 1 st lactation animals and a outbreak of grass tetany this spring that saw one cow dead and another 3 go down....
But of course the main reason he won it was he was feeding little meal and making the cows lick paddocks clean all of which ment he was apparently making 2c/l extra with better grass utilisation and solids but I doubt the above fertility/ herd health problems where factored in

How about a certain fella from Meath that won it a few years back,all ped Holsteins ,licking paddocks and feeding 1.5 t plus of meal ??????

Milked out · 03-06-2016 08:00AM

kowtow wrote: »

whelan2 wrote:

whats the story with this?

What I couldn't fathom was the bond issue by the coop to finance the support fund... apparently the bonds are 'exchangeable' against the coops holding in the plc but I couldn't find a deal sheet or prospectus so I don't know on what terms they convert.

Does it mean farmers will have to give up coop shares for this fund?

kowtow · 03-06-2016 09:19AM

No.

The coop is raising funds with a bond exchangeable for the plc shares it still holds.

What I didn't see were the terms upon which it was exchangeable and whether by the issuer (coop) or the subscriber (lender) and under what circumstances... they could be anything from at will by the subscriber to only upon default by the issuer.... would be interested to see their approach.

What I suspect it does mean is that those plc shares held by the coop can't be spun out or otherwise dealt with during the life of the bond.

Edit: the milk price around which the automatic payout / payback revolves is also important. Unless the co-op is taking a mighty double down gamble one would imagine that they expect milk to return to that price in due course so that the funds raised by the bond can be recirculated and serviced.

In the meantime it's a way of giving producers the 'use' of the plc share capital + income, at a price for the coop and it's members. The funds may be interest free for those that use them but the coupon on the bond must be paid by the coop membership from profits which would otherwise be distributable.

Difficult to be more precise with the limited information in the press yesterday.

Bass Reeves · 03-06-2016 09:59AM

There is another issue with the bond everyone's shares are now indentured. What this means is that farmers that are not using the bond are giving a subsidy to those that use the bond. As well the capital of those that do not use the bond and dry shareholders is put at risk.

The question is this legal, can a co-op or company use it capital or in this case borrow to support some share holders. In a company's case it cannot however in a co-op case it is questionable. What this will mean as well is that it may prolong downturn's in price. At what level will trigger points be and will PLC's use it as an crutch to drop the price in downturns as farmers are supporting themselves.

Farmer Ed · 03-06-2016 10:01AM

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=1731148877135108&id=1410613982521934. Very interesting preventive from this guy.

Buford T. Justice XIX · 03-06-2016 10:12AM

This is the first prediction of a recovery in milk price. An interesting analysis, you could say.

http://www.ifa.ie/market_reports/dairy-market-blog-25/#.V1FJBL4bIm2

Ireland sold 27,423t of SMP into intervention in total in 2016
Actual stock end April 152,394t (large quantities bought in in May do not appear yet) – Ireland accounted for 14,437t in stock at the same date
Unlike intervention, APS is transient stock, operator retains ownership and often has a market for the product when it goes into storage
Only 4,928t offered into the 210 day SMP scheme this year to end May – Ireland 0t
17,731t offered into the 365 day SMP scheme to end May – Ireland 0t
89,425t butter offered into APS – Ireland 772t
46,630t Cheese – Ireland 3,438t
Stocks to end April (latest available data from EU MMO)
SMP APS (all schemes) 32,026t
Butter APS 78,295t
Cheese APS 34,182t
Note, any product put into storage during May/June does not appear yet in official stock figures.

It looks like we are selling most of the extra production but Belgium, in particular, has not been able/willing to sell on the open market.

stanflt · 03-06-2016 10:41AM

mahoney_j wrote: »

How about a certain fella from Meath that won it a few years back,all ped Holsteins ,licking paddocks and feeding 1.5 t plus of meal ??????

I heard he was topping paddocks instead of licking them- not much let behind after topper

yosemitesam1 · 03-06-2016 11:00AM

Buford T. Justice V wrote: »

It looks like we are selling most of the extra production but Belgium, in particular, has not been able/willing to sell on the open market.

Is that because we've already sold our share into intervention and are dumping the surplus outside it at a discount?

kowtow · 03-06-2016 11:45AM

Bass Reeves wrote: »

There is another issue with the bond everyone's shares are now indentured. What this means is that farmers that are not using the bond are giving a subsidy to those that use the bond. As well the capital of those that do not use the bond and dry shareholders is put at risk.

The question is this legal, can a co-op or company use it capital or in this case borrow to support some share holders. In a company's case it cannot however in a co-op case it is questionable. What this will mean as well is that it may prolong downturn's in price. At what level will trigger points be and will PLC's use it as an crutch to drop the price in downturns as farmers are supporting themselves.

From a company perspective I wouldn't see a problem supporting producers, on arms length terms, this case is the inverse of the common misunderstanding of farmer shareholders - in other words the co-op cannot favour farmer shareholders because they are farmers, but it can lend money to farmers (regardless of the fact that they are shareholders)... it's all about the two roles being different despite being occupied by the same individuals.

As to the actual price points and the operation of the mechanism I have the same reservations as you - and in general I'm uncomfortable with the idea that the solution to low milk prices is to increase debt.

Count Mondego · 03-06-2016 12:15PM

How is it that every time I open this thread, I never find a post that gives the price of milk?

Milked out · 03-06-2016 12:18PM

Count Mondego wrote: »

How is it that every time I open this thread, I never find a post that gives the price of milk?

The milk price for previous months milk is generally not announced for most coops till the 3rd wk of the month so that's when prices would be put up mostly. Unlike in Europe where they get the price a month or 2 in advance

Milked out · 03-06-2016 12:23PM

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

Buford T. Justice V wrote: »

It looks like we are selling most of the extra production but Belgium, in particular, has not been able/willing to sell on the open market.

Is that because we've already sold our share into intervention and are dumping the surplus outside it at a discount?

If that's the case we would be better off without it as it will be the intervention milk coming back on the market will undermine us again as we are selling and they are not. If it wasn't there Belgium, france and the higher users of it would be taking a bigger hit now and would react faster. It obviously would hit us too but a shorter faster drop may be more manageable than this long drawn out affair

whelan2 · 03-06-2016 12:27PM

Count Mondego wrote: »

How is it that every time I open this thread, I never find a post that gives the price of milk?

Any idea on May price?

yewtree · 03-06-2016 12:59PM

whelan2 wrote: »

Any idea on May price?

Word from my coop Aurivo is milk price is coming down another cent. That would be 22 base for May milk. We will have to wait and see price won't be set until middle of month

Buford T. Justice XIX · 03-06-2016 01:02PM

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

Is that because we've already sold our share into intervention and are dumping the surplus outside it at a discount?

The Belgians have 'placed'(dumped) 86% of their excess production over 2014-2015 into intervention while we, Holland and Germany, iirc, have sold most of our excess production on the market. We are actually taking up very little of intervention stocks. We would be able to be 'softer' sellers than most due to our 'low cost' production while still being able to make a profit/take less of a loss.

Milked out wrote: »

If that's the case we would be better off without it as it will be the intervention milk coming back on the market will undermine us again as we are selling and they are not. If it wasn't there Belgium, france and the higher users of it would be taking a bigger hit now and would react faster. It obviously would hit us too but a shorter faster drop may be more manageable than this long drawn out affair

The stock overhang is not a massive concern, as the EU Commission has a reasonable record of selling intervention stock prudently when markets recover, and at a profit.-from the end of the first paragraph

atlantic mist · 03-06-2016 01:44PM

bond is a positive move timing is questionable, i have meet a lot of people who thought the milk flex loan would be easier than one of the pillar banks, it was stated here on boards that they could raise funds cheaper through bonds than we can so why not avail of it, what rate are they availing of bond at considering banks are providing finance at 3.7% its obviously sub that figure, coop have given gii a loan and now were raising a bond to give us a loan, sometimes it doesnt make sense what they are at no long term thinking at board level to much short term thinking, are we charging more in interest than we will be paying?

it seems to be all about cheap finance these days hope they are not forgetting we need a reasonable milk price to repay these funds, funding isnt the issue income is

my worry is people will avail of this finance who the banks will not touch, be interesting to see how much of bond gets used to cover trading bills, will it be available to everyone or is it one of their selective schemes?

shares as collateral for bond, reduces possible shares entering market for duration of bond, will share aid plc share price by reducing agri business bad debts and moving it over to coop and less shares to enter the public market for duration of bond

worry is the coop is now taking large risk in areas of financing, gaurentor for milk flex loan, now putting shares against bond...all down side risk for coop, will be a shame to see coop taking members to court if inability to repay loans keeping plc good name in tact

on quota from looking at the intervention figures the belgiums and french need to have a good look at their industries (french with their so called regions of produce and most of it sitting in a warehouse now) were after putting as much into intervention as the germans, no wonder france and belgium want to bring back in some sort of quota, were in line with the germans may be its time for them to get in line also, close intervention and they will suffer, were only using it as a bottom of the market tool we wouldnt sell for less

Bass Reeves · 03-06-2016 02:04PM

Buford T. Justice V wrote: »

The Belgians have 'placed'(dumped) 86% of their excess production over 2014-2015 into intervention while we, Holland and Germany, iirc, have sold most of our excess production on the market. We are actually taking up very little of intervention stocks. We would be able to be 'softer' sellers than most due to our 'low cost' production while still being able to make a profit/take less of a loss.

The stock overhang is not a massive concern, as the EU Commission has a reasonable record of selling intervention stock prudently when markets recover, and at a profit.-from the end of the first paragraph

It is still a disadvantage to those country that are taking the hit now. it supports farmers that have a higher cost base. If it was not in place Belgium and French Farmers would be getting less for there milk. They seem to be totally dependent on there internal markets and have not the flexibility/contacts to sell the excess product. If they had to sell that excess product the processors in Belgium and France would be undercutting each other to get rid of this product.

This is what is happening in Ireland I notice a good few sale offers on cheese. If you look outside milk at present Pork and Chicken meat is on offer(being discounted) because of excess production

Farmer Ed · 03-06-2016 03:04PM

Count Mondego wrote: »

How is it that every time I open this thread, I never find a post that gives the price of milk?

Well increasingly that one is going to become more complicated. It will no longer just a+b-c. From now on it looks like it will also include +or-d for bonuses or penalties +or-d for loans and loan repayments from the co op.-f for share up.
Comparing milk price does not look like it's going to be a straight forward task..

Water John · 03-06-2016 09:41PM

I see from the IFJ, Cork farmers have the best and the worst of prices.
A 100 cow dairy farmer in mid cork had a difference of €2,600 in his cheque in mid May from his neighbour. Depended on who was lucky to be the West Cork supplier.
That is shocking. The management and board members of Dairygold are directly responsible for extra hardship on those farm families. There is no shirking that.
There is a reponsibility that they must be held accountable for.

Milk Price- Please read Mod note in post #1

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