Milk Price- Please read Mod note in post #1

WheatenBriar · 01-05-2016 10:27AM

Oh the msa states thats allowed whelan2
Shur msa's are probably a law suit away from nullification as it is without the slavery

mf240 · 01-05-2016 10:51AM

whelan2 wrote: »

wonder what way does it work out if you gave up milking before the msa period is up?

Jaysus they cant make you milk cows. If ya get out they don't mind. It's only to stop you going to somewhere else.

Id say if a couple of lads left they could be afraid to pursue it. As if they lost the case then everyone could walk.

If it drops below 20 I'll probably let them rear their calves next year. could do with a holiday anyway.

darragh_haven · 01-05-2016 10:54AM

keep going wrote: »

Dont quote me but id say around 70 for one and 40 for the other, got word tonite that another is considering.

A good friend of mine is at about the 80 cow mark but is really stuck between a rock and a hard place now. He doesn't think he can continue if milk price dips much more.... or if the current price is prolonged (12more months).
Changes in his personal life have made him have to change his outlook on his own "free labour"

kevthegaff · 01-05-2016 11:29AM

2, 3 years of this malarkey will wean off a lot of lads, will be approaching 130 this year on my own. Going with flying herd once the rest of calves are moved on. Tough during the spring but hoping it will be worth it time/financially in the future.. if I had a bigger parlour I reckon could manage more but will see. As dawg says no tailpainting/Ai calves moved on quick, dehorning. Just didn't see it feasible getting another block for replacements, also 4 out of 37 not incalf last year and 3 losing spins so that just p""S's ed me off

keep going · 01-05-2016 11:30AM

darragh_haven wrote: »

A good friend of mine is at about the 80 cow mark but is really stuck between a rock and a hard place now. He doesn't think he can continue if milk price dips much more.... or if the current price is prolonged (12more months).
Changes in his personal life have made him have to change his outlook on his own "free labour"

One fella was educated and had worked b2fore and has a job got.hard to blame him with the prospects at the minute and is a silent partner with his neighbour now.the other guy had small numbers but was big into high yeilds highcfeeding etc and id say it just caught up with him when prices fell.the thrid guy has another on farm business competing for his land.any way lads they can always get goi g again if things pick up,

whelan2 · 01-05-2016 11:31AM

kevthegaff wrote: »

2, 3 years of this malarkey will wean off a lot of lads, will be approaching 130 this year on my own. Going with flying herd once the rest of calves are moved on. Tough during the spring but hoping it will be worth it time/financially in the future.. if I had a bigger parlour I reckon could manage more but will see. As dawg says no tailpainting/Ai calves moved on quick, dehorning. Just didn't see it feasible getting another block for replacements, also 4 out of 37 not incalf last year and 3 losing spins so that just p""S's ed me off

What size parlour have you?

kevthegaff · 01-05-2016 11:36AM

darragh_haven wrote: »

A good friend of mine is at about the 80 cow mark but is really stuck between a rock and a hard place now. He doesn't think he can continue if milk price dips much more.... or if the current price is prolonged (12more months).
Changes in his personal life have made him have to change his outlook on his own "free labour"

That's the question how long at current prices will it be feasible for alot of us to continue between family and credit possibly rising. Will it make sense not to mention the workload.

Farmer Ed · 01-05-2016 11:37AM

darragh_haven wrote: »

A good friend of mine is at about the 80 cow mark but is really stuck between a rock and a hard place now. He doesn't think he can continue if milk price dips much more.... or if the current price is prolonged (12more months).
Changes in his personal life have made him have to change his outlook on his own "free labour"

Good example of how people's outlook can change over time. One thing that strikes me at farmers meetings is the age profile. Ive heard of an 80 year old signing the msa and forecasting his future milk dileveries. I wonder how realistic that forecast was?

kevthegaff · 01-05-2016 11:37AM

whelan2 wrote: »

What size parlour have you?

12 unit ball of crap

whelan2 · 01-05-2016 12:10PM

Farmer Ed wrote: »

Good example of how people's outlook can change over time. One thing that strikes me at farmers meetings is the age profile. Ive heard of an 80 year old signing the msa and forecasting his future milk dileveries. I wonder how realistic that forecast was?

Don't plan to be milking cows when I am 80 or 60 for that matter

Farmer Ed · 01-05-2016 12:17PM

whelan2 wrote: »

Don't plan to be milking cows when I am 80 or 60 for that matter

Your not alone there. But the point is some may have successors but a lot don't. So ultimately dairy farmer numbers will continue to fall. A prolonged low milk price may well exeellerate the process.

WheatenBriar · 01-05-2016 12:21PM

Farmer Ed wrote: »

Your not alone there. But the point is some may have successors but a lot don't. So ultimately dairy farmer numbers will continue to fall. A prolonged low milk price may well exeellerate the process.

Aye an 18% rise in GiiL's milk intake must have been very disappointing for them
Their suppliers were capable of at least 30 if they wanted

Farmer Ed · 01-05-2016 12:29PM

WheatenBriar wrote: »

Aye an 18% rise in GiiL's milk intake must have been very disappointing for them
Their suppliers were capable of at least 30 if they wanted

There was always going to be an increase as soon as quotas ended. The question is can that rate of increase be sustained? Or at what point might we even see a decline in production as farmers get older and drop out. Milking extra cows on your own is all very well but it's definitely a Yong persons job.

whelan2 · 01-05-2016 12:30PM

Low milk price. Extra long winter. 3 years left in Msa. Also feck all return for the long hours put in while the head honchos pocket more and more. Can't see too many putting up with it for much longer. Morale is on the floor

Buford T. Justice XIX · 01-05-2016 01:07PM

whelan2 wrote: »

Don't plan to be milking cows when I am 80 or 60 for that matter

You mightn't have a choice.

Retirement age is heading upwards and will probably be 70 fairly soon.

I may just be doing mainly tractor work by then, and maybe a lot sooner, but I like being outdoors and doing something constructive rather than sitting inside doing Bingo and giving out about the 'young people these days....':)

Timmaay · 01-05-2016 01:19PM

whelan2 wrote: »

Don't plan to be milking cows when I am 80 or 60 for that matter

Certainly not planning on being still in the parlour full time when I'm 40 ha. Not for another 10years, I've no idea what I'll be at then but I know I'll refuse to become a slave to any wild government targets like the harvest 2020, company's like Glanbia etc, and all that needs to happen is for me to pickup afew acres and become 2/3grand per cow in debt and suddenly I'll have no option but to plough on pumping out milk regardless of the price. God knows what way the markets will be in 10years, not to mind climate change etc. Absolutely no point planning past 10years with capital investments etc. In 10years time I'd say I'll either be gone or at 250+cows and obviously I can't achieve that without neighbours failing which is the harsh reality.

keep going · 01-05-2016 01:23PM

whelan2 wrote: »

Don't plan to be milking cows when I am 80 or 60 for that matter

Alot worse if you couldnt milk at 60 or 70

freedominacup · 01-05-2016 02:32PM

Farmer Ed wrote: »

Your not alone there. But the point is some may have successors but a lot don't. So ultimately dairy farmer numbers will continue to fall. A prolonged low milk price may well exeellerate the process.

The day after I establish I haven't got a successor I'll be contacting an auctioneer. I'll be well into my fifties at that point and there'd be little point flogging myself if no-one is going to take up the mantle. By the same token if someone has said they want the job they will be taking most of the reins and I'll be moving into the back seat. Prices rise and fall people. There's as little point in making descions with long term consequences based on 20-22c as there is based on 40-42c.

jaymla627 · 01-05-2016 03:32PM

freedominacup wrote: »

The day after I establish I haven't got a successor I'll be contacting an auctioneer. I'll be well into my fifties at that point and there'd be little point flogging myself if no-one is going to take up the mantle. By the same token if someone has said they want the job they will be taking most of the reins and I'll be moving into the back seat. Prices rise and fall people. There's as little point in making descions with long term consequences based on 20-22c as there is based on 40-42c.

We are seeing a totally different dynamic though eu quotas gone, massive production increases worldwide cheap grain/oil for the foreseeable future and are facing into another 12-18 months of low prices...
Their has never been such a prolonged period with prices on the floor and it looks like staying like that for all of 2016 at least, any of us milking at the minute in the position that they can pull the plug this year and get out debt free would be wise to do so, but that's easier said then done and of course their is the attachment to the cows....
In my situation am still in my 20s, taking no wages whatsoever this year, and will probably end up subbing farm nearly 35k from bps and off-farm income, it's a ridiculous situation to be in working 70 hours a week on farm/30 off it and be losing money, it's not sustainable and even though I would loathe to have to get out of cows I will only stick what I'm at currently for another 2 years our will burn myself out for no reward and probably end up in a nice bit of debt

RightTurnClyde · 01-05-2016 04:08PM

kevthegaff wrote: »

2, 3 years of this malarkey will wean off a lot of lads, will be approaching 130 this year on my own. Going with flying herd once the rest of calves are moved on. Tough during the spring but hoping it will be worth it time/financially in the future.. if I had a bigger parlour I reckon could manage more but will see. As dawg says no tailpainting/Ai calves moved on quick, dehorning. Just didn't see it feasible getting another block for replacements, also 4 out of 37 not incalf last year and 3 losing spins so that just p""S's ed me off

As efficiency goes that model will be close to as good as it gets. One labour unit on owned land shoving 180 through, will be hard to beat financially. When it comes to buying replacements will you buy Springers or calved. There's another area you can help the labour situation and improve the ability to "duck and dive"
(Eg buying calved cows later in spring when you get a spring like thus ones)

The one chink in that setup is long term sustainability. Down the road, head into your 50s, it'll be hard going physically, but that's a while away.

You'll make money with that system

Miname · 01-05-2016 04:19PM

RightTurnClyde wrote: »

As efficiency goes that model will be close to as good as it gets. One labour unit on owned land shoving 180 through, will be hard to beat financially. When it comes to buying replacements will you buy Springers or calved. There's another area you can help the labour situation and improve the ability to "duck and dive"
(Eg buying calved cows later in spring when you get a spring like thus ones)

The one chink in that setup is long term sustainability. Down the road, head into your 50s, it'll be hard going physically, but that's a while away.

You'll make money with that system

I'm suckling so don't really know but realistically is there many farms set up or even have the ability to set up to carry 180 cows with one labour unit.

RightTurnClyde · 01-05-2016 04:21PM

freedominacup wrote: »

The day after I establish I haven't got a successor I'll be contacting an auctioneer. I'll be well into my fifties at that point and there'd be little point flogging myself if no-one is going to take up the mantle. By the same token if someone has said they want the job they will be taking most of the reins and I'll be moving into the back seat. Prices rise and fall people. There's as little point in making descions with long term consequences based on 20-22c as there is based on 40-42c.

Free, I agree with a lot of what you say.. But my worry is a decision was made when milk prices were +35c a litre to produce a specific low value product, and large capital was spent on that decision. When prices, and they will, rise back into the mid thirties through out Europe, we will still be lagging 4 or 5 cent behind because of decisions that were made pre end of quotas.
To be honest the first and only glimmer of light I've seen recently for a price rise are the environmental issues appearing in the Netherlands and Germany. It's something like this that will lift all boats in the medium to long term.

RightTurnClyde · 01-05-2016 04:43PM

Miname wrote: »

I'm suckling so don't really know but realistically is there many farms set up or even have the ability to set up to carry 180 cows with one labour unit.

Close to that here, 170 on my tod. Still rearing the heifers for the first 12 months and then passing them to contract rearer. That will stop after this year. Cows only next year up to 180. I'll have room for more if I import silage, but ill see.
I did get carried away this year and reared all the calves, including bulls and am only starting to sell calves now. I was a very hard spring on mind and body. I wouldn't do it again, in fact I've been told I'm not doing it again, I'll have to get help for next spring. My good wife very rarely issues instructions and when she does I listen.

No matter how good the setup, high numbers on one man are short term solutions for a few years when you're young, it's not a sustainable model long term.

Dawggone · 01-05-2016 04:53PM

freedominacup wrote: »

The day after I establish I haven't got a successor I'll be contacting an auctioneer. I'll be well into my fifties at that point and there'd be little point flogging myself if no-one is going to take up the mantle. By the same token if someone has said they want the job they will be taking most of the reins and I'll be moving into the back seat. Prices rise and fall people. There's as little point in making descions with long term consequences based on 20-22c as there is based on 40-42c.

Jeez Free surely you're doing it for yourself??
No successor here (well I have but would in no way allow it!) and well past my hayday, but love the buzz/challenge. There's a 94ha farm come up almost next door to base and as Clarkson would say 'I'm nursing a semi'...
There are days that I feel like chucking it in and buying a few gîtes and going native, but I just love the buzz...onwards and upwards.
As Whelan said morale is on the floor, but things will change in a few years and the pain will be forgotten...

kowtow · 01-05-2016 05:19PM

Well I'm going against the grain and cranking up the milkers.

When I reach two dozen I'll stop and take stock.

kowtow · 01-05-2016 05:54PM

freedominacup wrote:

There's as little point in making descions with long term consequences based on 20-22c as there is based on 40-42c.

Brilliant point.

Dawggone · 01-05-2016 06:00PM

kowtow wrote: »

Well I'm going against the grain and cranking up the milkers.

When I reach two dozen I'll stop and take stock.

Steady on there Kowtow!!

Dawggone · 01-05-2016 06:04PM

On reading the posts here and everyone talking about the one man operation, I would strongly recommend that you take out a 'key man' insurance policy.

Brown Podzol · 01-05-2016 06:16PM

Milking cows or selling litres. Upped cow no.s by 15% and litres by 50% in the last year. Long lactation and breeding a cow that will respond to extra feed and calve every 365 days. There are more ways of killing a cat than choking him with butter.

whelan2 · 01-05-2016 06:23PM

freedominacup wrote: »

The day after I establish I haven't got a successor I'll be contacting an auctioneer. I'll be well into my fifties at that point and there'd be little point flogging myself if no-one is going to take up the mantle. By the same token if someone has said they want the job they will be taking most of the reins and I'll be moving into the back seat. Prices rise and fall people. There's as little point in making descions with long term consequences based on 20-22c as there is based on 40-42c.

Do you realistically think milk will ever be in the 40's again? Any way enough doom and gloom, am off out for our tea, 19 years married

Milk Price- Please read Mod note in post #1

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