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Boards forecast contest April 2016

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Comments

  • #52
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,666 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Claremorris now goes ahead with the maximum of 18.5c yesterday.

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



  • #53
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,592 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    After three weeks ...

    IMT at 7.3 C with the past week 7.54 C.

    PRC has dropped to 125% thanks to a nearly dry week (13% of normal).

    SUN has improved to 93.5% with the past week at 117% (+1).

    Expect a slight drop in that already cool IMT next week, PRC should continue to fall back towards normal and SUN might struggle to stay above 90%.

    We will await the official version for MAX as Markree was not included in the list for yesterday but 18.5 at Claremorris would otherwise qualify. At least it has entered the range of our forecasts which reduces the chances that the mercy rule will be invoked.


  • #54
    John mac
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,131 ✭✭✭John mac


    where i am it was 39 yesterday , 15 cooler today only 24 :D


  • #55
    Tae laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 731 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    May's Bonus Question - Where is John mac?


  • #56
    Joe Public
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,783 ✭✭✭Joe Public


    He got the AC fixed


  • #57
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,592 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    After four weeks ...

    IMT at 7.2 (7.18) after a very chilly fourth week, average 6.9 (Casement averaged only 5.7 and Shannon 8.5 but all IMT stations were 2 to 3 below average).

    PRC now at 103% as the showery nature of the week left only 38% of normal rainfall.

    SUN now at 102.5% as the cold weather was rather sunny at times, giving an overall weekly average of 129.5%.

    Would not expect any of these to change very much after today and tomorrow, and may produce a provisional scoring table on Sunday with IMT and PRC known, as we will be waiting to Tuesday 3rd for the MS final results.


  • #58
    rameire
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,184 ✭✭✭rameire


    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057591018

    Link to May for all the people like me.

    In addition I see according to met.ie yesterday's weather Malin head reached a temp of 103.0 yesterday.

    🌞 3.8kwp, 🌞 Split 2.28S, 1.52E. 🌞 Clonee, Dub.🌞



  • #59
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,592 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    These are provisionally the finishing numbers, I will hold off on confirming scores until Tuesday to prevent any unexpected problems ...

    IMT limped in at 7.2 from 7.16 (below even our lowest forecast, unusual, but well done Jpmarn at 7.3).

    PRC appears to be 105% and SUN probably got a last-minute boost so in the range of 104-107, will check the MS numbers against normal daily values to firm that up, but if last two days 135% and all my other numbers are true, then we finish on 105 per cent.


  • #60
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,666 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    rameire wrote: »
    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057591018

    Link to May for all the people like me.

    In addition I see according to met.ie yesterday's weather Malin head reached a temp of 103.0 yesterday.

    Yeah which I stated here http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=99574381&postcount=232

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



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  • #61
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,592 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    rameire wrote: »
    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057591018

    Link to May for all the people like me.

    In addition I see according to met.ie yesterday's weather Malin head reached a temp of 103.0 yesterday.

    So Aunt Meg was right to say it was boiling out.


  • #62
    Jpmarn
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,484 ✭✭✭Jpmarn


    rameire wrote: »
    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057591018

    Link to May for all the people like me.

    In addition I see according to met.ie yesterday's weather Malin head reached a temp of 103.0 yesterday.

    Have a look in Agriculture Data on met.ie. It shows Malin Head having an average temperature of 12.8c and all other stations having averages of between 5 and 8c for the last 7 days.


  • #63
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,592 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    No sign of that being fixed yet, still shows as 103 in the daily data option.

    Is today a bank holiday in Ireland? Would delay the MS by one day if so, was thinking it would appear tomorrow otherwise. Can also see that so far the error for Malin Head has crept into the monthly data for April, does not affect the IMT however. Perhaps it was 103, somebody had a barbeque a bit too close to the Stevenson screen?

    This raises an interesting question that must have cropped up in operational history of WMO member states, what happens if a firestorm over-runs a weather station? One could imagine this happening in western parts of North America or the Iberian peninsula or Australia. Do they go with any recorded temperatures or substitute local air mass temperatures?


  • #64
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,666 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    M.T. Cranium wrote: »
    No sign of that being fixed yet, still shows as 103 in the daily data option.

    Is today a bank holiday in Ireland? Would delay the MS by one day if so, was thinking it would appear tomorrow otherwise. Can also see that so far the error for Malin Head has crept into the monthly data for April, does not affect the IMT however. Perhaps it was 103, somebody had a barbeque a bit too close to the Stevenson screen?

    This raises an interesting question that must have cropped up in operational history of WMO member states, what happens if a firestorm over-runs a weather station? One could imagine this happening in western parts of North America or the Iberian peninsula or Australia. Do they go with any recorded temperatures or substitute local air mass temperatures?

    Yes it is a bank holiday MT.

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



  • #65
    Tae laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 731 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    M.T. Cranium wrote: »
    This raises an interesting question that must have cropped up in operational history of WMO member states, what happens if a firestorm over-runs a weather station? One could imagine this happening in western parts of North America or the Iberian peninsula or Australia. Do they go with any recorded temperatures or substitute local air mass temperatures?

    More likely that weather station under water in flood here!


  • #66
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,592 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Provisional scoring for April 2016

    Since Monday was a bank holiday, I think it may be Wednesday afternoon before I can get some official numbers, so I will post a provisional scoring table without putting the scores in order yet.

    FORECASTER ___________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN__ Bonus ____ TOTAL

    Estimated values _______ 7.2_18.5_-3.3 _105_ 105 ____ 10.1


    Rikand ________________07 _ 05 _ 18 _ 13 _ 07 ____ 04 _____ 54
    Sunflower3_____________07 _ 08 _ 00 _ 14 _ 09 ____ 05 _____ 43
    Dacogawa _____________ 09 _ 00 _ 11 _ 15 _ 08 ____ 07 _____ 50
    John mac ______________10 _ 00 _ 12 _ 12 _ 08 ____ 02 _____ 44
    Kindred Spirit __________ 10 _ 15 _ 07 _ 13 _ 09 ____ 04 _____ 58
    waterways_____________ 10 _ 18 _ 14 _ 11 _ 07 ____ 06 _____ 66

    Norma L ______________ 11 _ 00 _ 18 _ 13 _ 09 ____ 06 _____ 57

    Rameire __ (-1) ________ 12 _ 20 _ 12 _ 12 _ 08 ____ 09 __ 73-1=72
    Bsal __________________13 _ 10 _ 12 _ 10 _ 09 ____ 06 _____ 60
    JD ___________________ 14 _ 18 _ 12 _ 12 _ 08 ____ 07 _____ 71
    Dasa29 _______________ 15 _ 00 _ 12 _ 13 _ 08 ____ 05 _____ 53
    Tae laidir ______________16 _ 00 _ 05 _ 09 _ 09 ____ 07 _____ 46
    Lumi _________________ 16 _ 00 _ 16 _ 14 _ 09 ____ 04 _____ 59

    Con Sensus ____________ 16 _ 11 _ 14 _ 14 _ 09 ____ 06 _____ 70

    MrSkinner _____________ 16 _ 04 _ 18 _ 10 _ 09 ____ 01 _____ 58
    DOCARCH _____________ 16 _ 08 _ 18 _ 11 _ 10 ____ 08 _____ 71
    lostinashford ___________ 16 _ 17 _ 14 _ 15 _ 08 ____ 08 _____ 78
    sryanbruen ____________ 17 _ 13 _ 20 _ 14 _ 08 ____ 04 _____ 76
    Schadenfreudia _________ 17 _ 16 _ 10 _ 10 _ 07 ____ 05 _____ 65
    M.T. Cranium ___________18 _ 02 _ 18 _ 12 _ 07 ____ 09 _____ 66
    200motels _____________ 20 _ 01 _ 15 _ 14 _ 08 ____ 03 _____ 61
    Joe Public ____ (-3) _____ 20 _ 14 _ 14 _ 10 _ 07 ____ 10 _ 75-3=72
    Pauldry _______________ 22 _ 11 _ 18 _ 14 _ 09 ____ 06 _____ 80
    Mickger844posts ________23 _ 04 _ 13 _ 12 _ 06 ____ 10 _____ 68
    Jpmarn _______________ 23 _ 14 _ 12 _ 08 _ 08 ____ 10 _____ 75
    ________________________________________________________

    Watch for either a new final table or a confirmation of this table on Wednesday, may be too late to edit this one by then. However I will repost it anyway if confirmed, in the correct scoring order.


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  • #67
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,592 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Well, I notice that the 103 reading at Malin Head now appears correctly as 10.3, and the monthly mean dropped three degrees in the monthly data for April.

    The above table will be reposted with any corrections necessary, tomorrow around 1800h (it could be earlier but MS appears in middle of the night in my time zone).


  • #68
    Jpmarn
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,484 ✭✭✭Jpmarn


    M.T. Cranium wrote: »
    Table of forecasts for April, 2016


    FORECASTER ___________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ Shannon 10th


    Rikand ________________9.0 _ 20.0 _ -3.5 _ 100 _ 120 ____ 14.0
    Sunflower3_____________9.0 _ 17.3 _ -1.2 _ 107 _ 099 ____ 13.5
    Dacogawa _____________ 8.8 _ 21.0 _ -2.4 _ 104 _ 096 ____ 12.9
    John mac ______________8.7 _ 22.3 _ -2.5 _ 115 _ 097 ____ 15.2
    Kindred Spirit __________ 8.7 _ 19.0 _ -2.0 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 14.0
    waterways_____________ 8.7 _ 18.3 _ -2.7 _ 118 _ 088 ____ 13.0

    Norma L ______________ 8.6 _ 21.0 _ -3.5 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 13.0

    Rameire __ (-1) ________ 8.5 _ 18.5 _ -2.5 _ 115 _ 095 ____ 12.5
    Bsal __________________8.4 _ 17.5 _ -2.5 _ 120 _ 098 ____ 13.0
    JD ___________________ 8.3 _ 18.3 _ -2.5 _ 113 _ 093 ____ 12.9
    Dasa29 _______________ 8.2 _ 21.0 _ -2.5 _ 110 _ 095 ____ 13.5
    Tae laidir ______________8.1 _ 21.8 _ -1.8 _ 123 _ 100 ____ 12.8
    Lumi _________________ 8.1 _ 21.4 _ -2.9 _ 101 _ 100 ____ 13.7

    Con Sensus ____________ 8.1 _ 19.4 _ -2.7 _ 108 _ 098 ____ 13.0

    MrSkinner _____________ 8.1 _ 20.1 _ -3.1 _ 121 _ 111 ____ 16.1
    DOCARCH _____________ 8.1 _ 19.7 _ -3.1 _ 092 _ 105 ____ 12.7
    lostinashford ___________8.1 _ 18.8 _ -2.7 _ 104 _ 114 ____ 12.6
    sryanbruen ____________ 8.0 _ 19.2 _ -3.3 _ 108 _ 097 ____ 14.0
    Schadenfreudia _________8.0 _ 18.1 _ -4.3 _ 120 _ 120 ____ 13.1
    M.T. Cranium __________ 7.9 _ 20.3 _ -3.5 _ 115 _ 090 ____ 12.0
    200motels _____________7.7 _ 20.4 _ -2.8 _ 107 _ 096 ____ 14.2
    Joe Public ____ (-3) _____ 7.7 _ 17.9 _ -3.9 _ 119 _ 090 ____ 11.9
    Pauldry _______________ 7.5 _ 19.4 _ -3.1 _ 108 _ 098 ____ 13.0
    Mickger844posts ________7.4 _ 20.1 _ -2.6 _ 115 _ 087 ____ 11.4
    Jpmarn _______________ 7.4 _ 17.9 _ -2.5 _ 125 _ 095 ____ 10.9
    _________________________________________________________

    23 forecasts, will add any later ones and adjust Con Sensus.

    Our group consensus seems to indicate a rather cool month with near normal rain and sunshine although with a slight tendency to the wet and cloudy side.
    For convienience I reposted your table of guess so you don't have to go back a number of pages to compare with the scores you got from M.T.


  • #69
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,592 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Hey, so all is in order with the provisional scoring table meaning the MS confirms my estimates ...

    IMT 7.2, MAX 18.5, MIN -3.3, PRC 105, SUN 105 (and bonus 10.1)

    Just checking the scores again and will repost the table in correct order, then move on to the annual update.


  • #70
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,592 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Confirmed scoring for April 2016

    FORECASTER ___________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN__ Bonus ____ TOTAL

    Actual values __________ 7.2_18.5_-3.3 _105_ 105 __ 10.1

    Pauldry _______________ 22 _ 11 _ 18 _ 14 _ 09 ____ 06 _____ 80
    lostinashford ___________ 16 _ 17 _ 14 _ 15 _ 08 ____ 08 _____ 78
    sryanbruen ____________ 17 _ 13 _ 20 _ 14 _ 08 ____ 04 _____ 76
    Jpmarn _______________ 23 _ 14 _ 12 _ 08 _ 08 ____ 10 _____ 75
    Rameire __ (-1) ________ 12 _ 20 _ 12 _ 12 _ 08 ____ 09 _ 73-1=72
    Joe Public ____ (-3) _____ 20 _ 14 _ 14 _ 10 _ 07 ____ 10 _ 75-3=72
    JD ___________________ 14 _ 18 _ 12 _ 12 _ 08 ____ 07 _____ 71
    DOCARCH _____________ 16 _ 08 _ 18 _ 11 _ 10 ____ 08 _____ 71

    Con Sensus ____________16 _ 11 _ 14 _ 14 _ 09 ____ 06 _____ 70

    Mickger844posts ________ 23 _ 04 _ 13 _ 12 _ 06 ____ 10 _____ 68
    M.T. Cranium ___________18 _ 02 _ 18 _ 12 _ 07 ____ 09 _____ 66
    waterways_____________ 10 _ 18 _ 14 _ 11 _ 07 ____ 06 _____ 66
    Schadenfreudia _________ 17 _ 16 _ 10 _ 10 _ 07 ____ 05 _____ 65
    200motels _____________ 20 _ 01 _ 15 _ 14 _ 08 ____ 03 _____ 61
    Bsal __________________ 13 _ 10 _ 12 _ 10 _ 09 ____ 06 _____ 60
    Lumi _________________ 16 _ 00 _ 16 _ 14 _ 09 ____ 04 _____ 59
    Kindred Spirit __________ 10 _ 15 _ 07 _ 13 _ 09 ____ 04 _____ 58
    MrSkinner _____________ 16 _ 04 _ 18 _ 10 _ 09 ____ 01 _____ 58

    Norma L ______________ 11 _ 00 _ 18 _ 13 _ 09 ____ 06 _____ 57

    Rikand ________________07 _ 05 _ 18 _ 13 _ 07 ____ 04 _____ 54
    Dasa29 _______________ 15 _ 00 _ 12 _ 13 _ 08 ____ 05 _____ 53
    Dacogawa _____________ 09 _ 00 _ 11 _ 15 _ 08 ____ 07 _____ 50
    Tae laidir ______________16 _ 00 _ 05 _ 09 _ 09 ____ 07 _____ 46
    John mac ______________10 _ 00 _ 12 _ 12 _ 08 ____ 02 _____ 44
    Sunflower3_____________07 _ 08 _ 00 _ 14 _ 09 ____ 05 _____ 43

    ______________________________________________________


    Congrats to Pauldry for high score of 80 in April, silver to Lostinashford and bronze to sryanbruen, JPmarn close. In general not a bad month for scoring, annual scoring update to follow soon I hope.


  • #71
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,592 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Annual scoring for 2016


    ___ FORECASTER __________ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _ Apr __ TOTAL ____ best 3 of 4
    rank/
    01 mickger844posts ________ 78 _ 63 _ 89 _ 68 ___ 298 _______ 235 (2)

    02 Con Sensus ____________ 73 _ 75 _ 77 _ 70 ____ 295 _______ 225 (4)

    02 Lumi __________________71 _ 72 _ 89 _ 59 ____ 291 _______ 232 (3)
    03 Tae laidir ______________ 86 _ 76 _ 76 _ 46 ____ 284 _______ 238 (1)
    04 lostinashford ___________ 69 _ 66 _ 63 _ 78 ____ 276 _______ 213 (7t)
    05 waterways _____________ 75 _ 75 _ 58 _ 66 ____ 274 _______ 216 (6)
    06 MrSkinner ______________83 _ 66 _ 64 _ 58 ____ 271 _______ 213 (7t)
    06 Rameire _______________ 69 _ 60 _ 70 _ 72 ____ 271 _______ 211 (9)
    08 Sunflower3 _____________72 _ 71 _ 81 _ 43 ____ 267 _______ 224 (4)
    09 Schadenfreudia _________ 65 _ 72 _ 58 _ 65 ____ 260 _______ 202 (12t)
    10 Bsal __________________ 65 _ 66 _ 66 _ 60 ____ 257 _______ 197 (17t)
    11 M.T. Cranium ___________46 _ 62 _ 78 _ 66 ____ 252 _______ 206 (10)
    12 Rikand ________________ 67 _ 76 _ 54 _ 54 ____ 251 _______ 197 (17t)
    13 JD____________________ 69 _ 77 _ 32 _ 71 ____ 249 _______ 217 (5)
    13 Dacogawa _____________ 52 _ 58 _ 89 _ 50 ____ 249 _______ 199 (15t)
    13 200motels _____________ 46 _ 68 _ 74 _ 61 ____ 249 _______ 203 (11)
    16 DOCARCH _____________ 53 _ 62 _ 61 _ 71 ____ 247 _______ 194 (19)
    16 Pauldry________________ 53 _ 69 _ 45 _ 80 ____ 247 _______ 202 (12t)
    18 Jpmarn ________________64 _ 60 _ 47 _ 75 ____ 246 _______ 199 (15t)
    19 Dasa29 ________________66 _ 58 _ 67 _ 53 ____ 244 _______ 191 (20t)

    19 Norma L _______________52 _ 65 _ 70 _ 57 ____ 244 _______ 192 (20)

    20 Joe Public ______________28 _ 63 _ 65 _ 72 ____ 228 _______ 200 (14)
    21 Sryanbruen ____________ 27 _ 63 _ 52 _ 76 ____ 218 _______ 191 (20t)
    22 john mac ______________ 72 _ 57 _ 36 _ 44 ____ 209 _______ 173 (23)
    23 omicron _______________ 76 _ 43 _ 72 _ --- ____ 191 _______ 191 (20t)
    24 kindredspirit ____________ -- _ 35 _ 65 _ 58 ____ 158 _______ 158 (24)

    25 Timmyboy ______________-- _ 53 _ --- _ --- _____ 53
    26 Elmer Blooker ___________ -- _ -- _ 51 _ --- _____ 51
    _______________________________________________________________

    So, only one (mickger844posts) has managed to stay ahead of Con Sensus but the chase pack is tightly bunched. I have listed your best three totals to begin the comparisons that really count, so some will find they are not as far back as the total score makes it appear perhaps. Ranks in brackets for those best three of four totals.


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