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Boards forecast contest April 2016

2

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 12,725 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    pauldry wrote: »
    oly crawp

    theres no sign of any decent max this month or 10th april shannon

    no 89s this month guys

    yel all be in the 40s like me!!

    Only time will tell what will happen! It could turn out like May 2012.

    May 2012 started with an unseasonably cold and largely unsettled chunk of weather. The first weekend of May 2012 was colder than Christmas 2011! But then around May 21st - 29th, it became much warmer with temperatures reaching the mid 20s in plenty of places. So never say never!

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,796 ✭✭✭ dacogawa


    Early 20's in the last 3rd of the month... maybe :o


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,011 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    At present met eireann say 5 to 9c for Sundays Bonus day:eek:


  • Registered Users Posts: 635 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    pauldry wrote: »
    At present met eireann say 5 to 9c for Sundays Bonus day:eek:

    But MT forecasts a max of 11.
    Who do you believe?


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,448 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    I suspect it will be 5 to 9 daytime and a max of 11 before midnight sort of a thing.

    First week of data ...

    IMT at 7.6 (-0.5 relative to normal for week)

    PRC 210% of normal

    SUN 78% of normal (-1 in rounding).


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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,725 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    This wet first week reminds me a lot of June 2012!

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,011 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    I suspect it will be 5 to 9 daytime and a max of 11 before midnight sort of a thing.

    First week of data ...

    IMT at 7.6 (-0.5 relative to normal for week)

    PRC 210% of normal

    SUN 78% of normal (-1 in rounding).

    We shudda done how much rain in munster station April 10th 50mm??


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,011 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    new min dublin -2.7c

    but markree ran it close ..yes -3.3c so markree wins

    max shannon 10.1c


  • Registered Users Posts: 635 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Oak Park max 11.6 yesterday.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,448 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Okay, so the actual max at Shannon was colder than any of us suspected, JPmarn at 10.9 was closest, then Mickger844posts at 11.4 and Joe Public at 11.9 C. These will get the maximum ten points. Will then go down the list in pairs although I expect multiple ties here and there to make this rather a bumpy ride down to the highest two forecasts scoring zero points.

    Thanks for spotting those minima, I was just about to do a search. Surely the max will be a lot warmer than anything achieved so far.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,448 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    After two weeks (14 days) ...

    The IMT stood at 7.2 with the week at a cool 6.8 (1.7 below the normal value for the week).

    PRC remains high, at 181% of normal, with this past week close to 151% despite quite a range.

    SUN continues to be weak at 82% with this past week 86% (-2 stat for cumulative rounding now at -3, 163.5/2)

    I have not made any notes on MAX but I think I saw the staggering figure of 15 and change the other day.

    Looking ahead, the IMT seems likely to drift around in the vicinity of 7 for much of next week, PRC may come down a bit and SUN may improve a bit. Whether we get a max inside the range of predictions remains to be seen.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,725 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    Table of forecasts for April, 2016


    FORECASTER ___________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ Shannon 10th


    Rikand ________________9.0 _ 20.0 _ -3.5 _ 100 _ 120 ____ 14.0
    Sunflower3_____________9.0 _ 17.3 _ -1.2 _ 107 _ 099 ____ 13.5
    Dacogawa _____________ 8.8 _ 21.0 _ -2.4 _ 104 _ 096 ____ 12.9
    John mac ______________8.7 _ 22.3 _ -2.5 _ 115 _ 097 ____ 15.2
    Kindred Spirit __________ 8.7 _ 19.0 _ -2.0 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 14.0
    waterways_____________ 8.7 _ 18.3 _ -2.7 _ 118 _ 088 ____ 13.0

    Norma L ______________ 8.6 _ 21.0 _ -3.5 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 13.0

    Rameire __ (-1) ________ 8.5 _ 18.5 _ -2.5 _ 115 _ 095 ____ 12.5
    Bsal __________________8.4 _ 17.5 _ -2.5 _ 120 _ 098 ____ 13.0
    JD ___________________ 8.3 _ 18.3 _ -2.5 _ 113 _ 093 ____ 12.9
    Dasa29 _______________ 8.2 _ 21.0 _ -2.5 _ 110 _ 095 ____ 13.5
    Tae laidir ______________8.1 _ 21.8 _ -1.8 _ 123 _ 100 ____ 12.8
    Lumi _________________ 8.1 _ 21.4 _ -2.9 _ 101 _ 100 ____ 13.7

    Con Sensus ____________ 8.1 _ 19.4 _ -2.7 _ 108 _ 098 ____ 13.0

    MrSkinner _____________ 8.1 _ 20.1 _ -3.1 _ 121 _ 111 ____ 16.1
    DOCARCH _____________ 8.1 _ 19.7 _ -3.1 _ 092 _ 105 ____ 12.7
    lostinashford ___________8.1 _ 18.8 _ -2.7 _ 104 _ 114 ____ 12.6
    sryanbruen ____________ 8.0 _ 19.2 _ -3.3 _ 108 _ 097 ____ 14.0
    Schadenfreudia _________8.0 _ 18.1 _ -4.3 _ 120 _ 120 ____ 13.1
    M.T. Cranium __________ 7.9 _ 20.3 _ -3.5 _ 115 _ 090 ____ 12.0
    200motels _____________7.7 _ 20.4 _ -2.8 _ 107 _ 096 ____ 14.2
    Joe Public ____ (-3) _____ 7.7 _ 17.9 _ -3.9 _ 119 _ 090 ____ 11.9
    Pauldry _______________ 7.5 _ 19.4 _ -3.1 _ 108 _ 098 ____ 13.0
    Mickger844posts ________7.4 _ 20.1 _ -2.6 _ 115 _ 087 ____ 11.4
    Jpmarn _______________ 7.4 _ 17.9 _ -2.5 _ 125 _ 095 ____ 10.9
    _________________________________________________________

    23 forecasts, will add any later ones and adjust Con Sensus.

    Our group consensus seems to indicate a rather cool month with near normal rain and sunshine although with a slight tendency to the wet and cloudy side.

    Sunflower3 so far the closest to the maximum that was recorded so far. It doesn't look like getting any higher!

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,011 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    id say the West will get to 16c this week Newport or Belmullet


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,011 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    17.9c Valentia

    but Markree and Newport ran it close.

    Newports weather station is in a sheltered spot under a dip in the road and regularly goes high in this set up


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,725 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    pauldry wrote: »
    17.9c Valentia

    but Markree and Newport ran it close.

    Newports weather station is in a sheltered spot under a dip in the road and regularly goes high in this set up

    Jpmarn and Joe Public bang on then!

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,011 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Newport topped it at 18.2c


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,011 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    On forecast at 930 joanna said markree got 18.9c

    well sligo got 17.7c so i dont know

    plus the markree station was out of action for a few hours

    in any case claremorris got 18.5c


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,448 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Hey in this new setup the sticky threads (such as this one) are not on the menu. So how do you access them? I just found a link to this one at the top of the page. If the sticky threads aren't in the menu, I would suggest doing away with the sticky function as it sticks them out of view. ;)


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,448 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    The edit function does not seem to be turned on yet ... so I can't edit the above ... however, I accidentally figured out the answer to my question, you click on "charter and important" to see sticky threads. That is a green box located upper right on my screen (I am on a fixed device not a mobile).

    Would suggest that we do away with at least some of the sticky threads if they are going to be outside the main menu, a lot of people won't find them. I did, but even a blind squirrel finds the occasional nut.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,011 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    i couldnt find it either MT but typed boards.ie weather into google and got redirected through past visits/history


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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,725 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    Claremorris now goes ahead with the maximum of 18.5c yesterday.

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,448 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    After three weeks ...

    IMT at 7.3 C with the past week 7.54 C.

    PRC has dropped to 125% thanks to a nearly dry week (13% of normal).

    SUN has improved to 93.5% with the past week at 117% (+1).

    Expect a slight drop in that already cool IMT next week, PRC should continue to fall back towards normal and SUN might struggle to stay above 90%.

    We will await the official version for MAX as Markree was not included in the list for yesterday but 18.5 at Claremorris would otherwise qualify. At least it has entered the range of our forecasts which reduces the chances that the mercy rule will be invoked.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,030 ✭✭✭ John mac


    where i am it was 39 yesterday , 15 cooler today only 24 :D


  • Registered Users Posts: 635 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    May's Bonus Question - Where is John mac?


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,755 ✭✭✭ Joe Public


    He got the AC fixed


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,448 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    After four weeks ...

    IMT at 7.2 (7.18) after a very chilly fourth week, average 6.9 (Casement averaged only 5.7 and Shannon 8.5 but all IMT stations were 2 to 3 below average).

    PRC now at 103% as the showery nature of the week left only 38% of normal rainfall.

    SUN now at 102.5% as the cold weather was rather sunny at times, giving an overall weekly average of 129.5%.

    Would not expect any of these to change very much after today and tomorrow, and may produce a provisional scoring table on Sunday with IMT and PRC known, as we will be waiting to Tuesday 3rd for the MS final results.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,837 ✭✭✭ rameire


    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057591018

    Link to May for all the people like me.

    In addition I see according to met.ie yesterday's weather Malin head reached a temp of 103.0 yesterday.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,448 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    These are provisionally the finishing numbers, I will hold off on confirming scores until Tuesday to prevent any unexpected problems ...

    IMT limped in at 7.2 from 7.16 (below even our lowest forecast, unusual, but well done Jpmarn at 7.3).

    PRC appears to be 105% and SUN probably got a last-minute boost so in the range of 104-107, will check the MS numbers against normal daily values to firm that up, but if last two days 135% and all my other numbers are true, then we finish on 105 per cent.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,725 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    rameire wrote: »
    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057591018

    Link to May for all the people like me.

    In addition I see according to met.ie yesterday's weather Malin head reached a temp of 103.0 yesterday.

    Yeah which I stated here http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=99574381&postcount=232

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,448 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    rameire wrote: »
    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057591018

    Link to May for all the people like me.

    In addition I see according to met.ie yesterday's weather Malin head reached a temp of 103.0 yesterday.

    So Aunt Meg was right to say it was boiling out.


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