The early wildcard v the dgw wildcard

Iused2likebusts · 21-01-2016 8:51pm

iroced wrote: »

Daniels & Williams combined for something like an 18 pts bonus over the best expected scenario (Williams 9 pts & Daniels 6). This is a pretty rare bonus for the early WCers who got both of them. I don't quite get how someone benched Williams? Home to Watford and knowing how much a bonus magnet he is.

You can't average it to the previous GW unlucky outcome though since no one performed bar Payet among the popular WC & non-WC players!

The person that benched Williams went with 5 home defenders for the 2 gws not a strategy I would go with myself. Looking at his team he probably did have 3 better defenders on paper so can see why he benched williams but i wouldnt get myself in that situation as he has 5 away this week.
What I'm trying to get at is that I and all wildcarders had a free shot at picking a team that was going to have 2 home fixtures in a row it's an advantage that non wildcarders didn't have. We could on paper pick a stronger team than non wildcards . In that situation you have to expect a wildcard bounce it mightnt transpire but the odds are stacked in your favour. For example I'm sure most of us went with bournemouth for west ham and Norwich home and swansea for Sunderland and Watford home as you would be unlucky not to get 2 c.s out of those 4 fixtures. The goals an unexpected bonus of course. If you were to play your wildcard this gw you would expect to get a boost over the next two gws as you can pick players with better fixtures. Once you know what your doing I would class it unlucky if you didn't get a short term boost. I got more than a boost so I'd class myself lucky out of this wildcard but the average of 9 pts extra is what you would atleast expect from a wildcard in the short term.

iroced · 22-01-2016 2:47am

Oh I 100% agree with you Busts. And I mentioned an expected 15 pts for Daniels/Williams. But 33 is definitely over any expectations. Hence my 18 pts bonus.

As for the extra you'd expect from your WC, it's complicated. It depends a lot on your team and how much surgery and/or planning ahead it needs. This year I had a fantastic return from my WC (115 pts, 16,608th GW rank). But I'd have been a hell of a lot better ranked had I played it by GW3. My huge GW8 boost did not make up for all the pts I could have gained earlier. So despite it being my best ever WC boost, overall it was just a satisfying recover from an earlier big mistake. Also, in previous years I remember many post WC disappointments despite being happy about my team and convinced it was better than before.

Anyway, all that said, I can't wait for the outcome of this thread. With all these new chips and the change in the WCs timing, it's modifying the whole season strategies. And trying to figure out the best ones and building the most competitive team is probably the most exciting aspect of this game.

Iused2likebusts · 25-01-2016 9:55pm

Will calculate the scores after the next gw just looked at the scores from the 6 lads that are in the fsa premier. There are 3 from each camp. The non wildcarders comfortably outscored the wildcarders. The key difference being the non wildcarders all played alli and the wildcarders all benched him. 2 of the wildcarders also went with lukaku capt over aguero .

CSF · 25-01-2016 10:10pm

Iused2likebusts wrote: »

Will calculate the scores after the next gw just looked at the scores from the 6 lads that are in the fsa premier. There are 3 from each camp. The non wildcarders comfortably outscored the wildcarders. The key difference being the non wildcarders all played alli and the wildcarders all benched him. 2 of the wildcarders also went with lukaku capt over aguero .

Who needs Alli when you can have Firmino

Iused2likebusts · 08-02-2016 3:19pm

After 5 gws the average score for the 7 players in each camp are
Wildcarders 274
Non wildcarder 282
After 2 gws the wildcarders had a 9 pt lead so in the last 3 gws there has been a swing of 17 pts back in favour of the non wildcarders.
The top 5 scorers over the last 5 gws are
CSF ( wildcarder) 301
FHFC (non wildcarder) 295
Busts ( wildcarder) 294
Lemlin (non wildcarder) 288
Iroced (non wildcarder) 285

CSF · 08-02-2016 5:45pm

Iused2likebusts wrote: »

After 5 gws the average score for the 7 players in each camp are
Wildcarders 274
Non wildcarder 282
After 2 gws the wildcarders had a 9 pt lead so in the last 3 gws there has been a swing of 17 pts back in favour of the non wildcarders.
The top 5 scorers over the last 5 gws are
CSF ( wildcarder) 301
FHFC (non wildcarder) 295
Busts ( wildcarder) 294
Lemlin (non wildcarder) 288
Iroced (non wildcarder) 285

And I'm still languishing in the 200ks.

Mike Ehrmantraut · 09-02-2016 11:06am

Iused2likebusts wrote: »

After 5 gws the average score for the 7 players in each camp are
Wildcarders 274
Non wildcarder 282
After 2 gws the wildcarders had a 9 pt lead so in the last 3 gws there has been a swing of 17 pts back in favour of the non wildcarders.
The top 5 scorers over the last 5 gws are
CSF ( wildcarder) 301
FHFC (non wildcarder) 295
Busts ( wildcarder) 294
Lemlin (non wildcarder) 288
Iroced (non wildcarder) 285

My 263 isn't helping the overall wildcard average.
Just checked my team before wild carding, if I had done nothing and played the same team (adjusting for injuries), I would have got 309pts.

SteelyDanJalapeno · 01-03-2016 11:05pm

Any updates planned Busts?

Iused2likebusts · 01-03-2016 11:07pm

TiltedBrain wrote: »

Any updates planned Busts?

Ye I'll have a look at it before Friday. You must be on a good run ha.

SteelyDanJalapeno · 01-03-2016 11:59pm

Iused2likebusts wrote: »

Ye I'll have a look at it before Friday. You must be on a good run ha.

Not exactly! Just interested. And planning my wc

Iused2likebusts · 02-03-2016 12:05am

TiltedBrain wrote: »

Not exactly! Just interested. And planning my wc

Ill be doing it this week and after gw30. Then the key gws 34,35 and 37.

Iused2likebusts · 07-03-2016 12:46pm

Iused2likebusts wrote: »

After 5 gws the average score for the 7 players in each camp are
Wildcarders 274
Non wildcarder 282
After 2 gws the wildcarders had a 9 pt lead so in the last 3 gws there has been a swing of 17 pts back in favour of the non wildcarders.
The top 5 scorers over the last 5 gws are
CSF ( wildcarder) 301
FHFC (non wildcarder) 295
Busts ( wildcarder) 294
Lemlin (non wildcarder) 288
Iroced (non wildcarder) 285

OK so after 9 gws and 4 gws since the last update.
The early wildcards 503 average.
The non wildcards 487 average.
A 16 pt average difference for the early wildcard.
In the past 4 weeks the early wildcarders have averaged 24 more points than the dgw wildcarders.
TOP 5 scores since gw 20 when we wildcarded.
1 busts 533 wildcarder
2 tilted brain 525 non wildcarder
3 csf 518 wildcarders
4 lemlin 517 non wildcarder
5 spock 516 wildcarders

I'm delighted with how my wildcard has gone as my move to a cheap defence and gks which was a key reason for me wildcarding has been a great success. In the 9 weeks before my wildcard I had an expensive defence gk of ddg Bellerin kolarov etc they got me 114 pts in 9 gws. Since wildcarding and moving to cheap gks and 5 rotating cheap defs bar vvd in recent weeks I've got 163 pts in 9 gws. My gk and back 3 are getting me on average 5.5 pts more a week than prior to wildcard. Having said that my 2 cheap gks have been a disaster hennessey elliot so I'll need to make a change here. Also looking at my transfers since wildcard bar Pedro to payet all the transfers I've made in 9 gws have been due to injury or necessity due to blanks. I haven't made 1 move due to looking to get a form player in.

km79 · 07-03-2016 1:09pm

Iused2likebusts wrote: »

OK so after 9 gws and 4 gws since the last update.
The early wildcards 503 average.
The non wildcards 487 average.
A 16 pt average difference for the early wildcard.
In the past 4 weeks the early wildcarders have averaged 24 more points than the dgw wildcarders.
TOP 5 scores since gw 20 when we wildcarded.
1 busts 533 wildcarder
2 tilted brain 525 non wildcarder
3 csf 518 wildcarders
4 lemlin 517 non wildcarder
5 spock 516 wildcarders

I'm delighted with how my wildcard has gone as my move to a cheap defence and gks which was a key reason for me wildcarding has been a great success. In the 9 weeks before my wildcard I had an expensive defence gk of ddg Bellerin kolarov etc they got me 114 pts in 9 gws. Since wildcarding and moving to cheap gks and 5 rotating cheap defs bar vvd in recent weeks I've got 163 pts in 9 gws. My gk and back 3 are getting me on average 5.5 pts more a week than prior to wildcard. Having said that my 2 cheap gks have been a disaster hennessey elliot so I'll need to make a change here. Also looking at my transfers since wildcard bar Pedro to payet all the transfers I've made in 9 gws have been due to injury or necessity due to blanks. I haven't made 1 move due to looking to get a form player in.

Id be dead and buried in my money league if I had not moved early
And the lads fighting with me for the money have only 6/7 available next week so will prob use it now anyway

iroced · 07-03-2016 1:13pm

@ Busts. Can you post everyone's updated scores?

Iused2likebusts · 07-03-2016 1:27pm

iroced wrote: »

@ Busts. Can you post everyone's updated scores?

6 fhfc 500 non wildcard
7 fingers 492 wildcard
8 iroced 490 non wildcard
9 Donal 490 wildcard
10 Dean Late Earache 488 non wildcard
11 Mike ehrmataurant 487 wildcard
12 km79 484 wildcard
13 Kilburn 457 non wildcard
14 greedy goblin 437 non wildcard

SteelyDanJalapeno · 07-03-2016 1:58pm

An abysmal 1st half of the season has ruined my ranking, I'd be bossing my pay leagues had I adapted sooner.

Iused2likebusts · 15-04-2016 3:20pm

Update after gw 33
The average score for late wildcarders is 758 the average score for early wildcarders is 756.

Since gw 20 early wildcarders have taken a total of 21 hits while the late wildcarders have taken 17 hits. Spock leads the way with 7 hits. While iroced, lemlin and mike ehrmantrau have yet to tke a hit.
In gw 33 the late wildcarders had 27 dgw players the early wildcarders had 19 dgw players

Total scores since gw 20
1 Busts 798 early
2 Lemlin 795 late
3 Fhfc 794 late
4 Dean Late Earache 773 late
5 spock 768 early
6 csf 767 early
7 mike ehrmantraum 761 early
8 tilted brain 758 late
9 kilburn 754 late
10 fingers 752 early
11 km79 746 early
12 iroced 734 late
13 greedygoblin 704 late
14 donal 703 early

iroced · 15-04-2016 3:34pm

Wow :eek:! Was 10 pts behind FHFC at your last update (GW29 IIRC) and I'm now 60 behind! 50 pts lost over 5 GWs!

I should be banned from giving any advice in here :pac:

...

FHFC · 15-04-2016 4:08pm

iroced wrote: »

Wow :eek:! Was 10 pts behind FHFC at your last update (GW29 IIRC) and I'm now 60 behind! 50 pts lost over 5 GWs!

I should be banned from giving any advice in here :pac: ...

Eat dust Frenchman...

spock. · 15-04-2016 4:15pm

Iused2likebusts wrote: »

Update after gw 33
The average score for late wildcarders is 758 the average score for early wildcarders is 756.

Since gw 20 early wildcarders have taken a total of 21 hits while the late wildcarders have taken 17 hits. Spock leads the way with 7 hits. While iroced, lemlin and mike ehrmantrau have yet to tke a hit.
In gw 33 the late wildcarders had 27 dgw players the early wildcarders had 19 dgw players

Total scores since gw 20
1 Busts 798 early
2 Lemlin 795 late
3 Fhfc 794 late
4 Dean Late Earache 773 late
5 spock 768 early
6 csf 767 early
7 mike ehrmantraum 761 early
8 tilted brain 758 late
9 kilburn 754 late
10 fingers 752 early
11 km79 746 early
12 iroced 734 late
13 greedygoblin 704 late
14 donal 703 early

You can make that 10 after this week :pac:

patmac · 22-04-2016 10:36am

I would imagine this swung heavily in the favour of the late wildcarders with the DGW, the new chips mean that any serious player will be keeping them to late in the season after all the huge scores this week.

km79 · 22-04-2016 10:38am

patmac wrote: »

I would imagine this swung heavily in the favour of the late wildcarders with the DGW, the new chips mean that any serious player will be keeping them to late in the season after all the huge scores this week.

wildcarded in January
score this week 176(-8)
one transfer needed to field 11 this week due to smith injury
I'll be playing it similar time next year if I'm chasing again

Iused2likebusts · 22-04-2016 10:59am

I'll hopefully update it later

Iused2likebusts · 22-04-2016 11:42pm

Latest update
Average score for Dgw wildcarders 921 Early wildcarders 912.
Before this gw dgw wildcarders had an average of 2 pts more than early wildcarders. This week dgw wildcarders got on average 7 pts more than early wildcarders

Total scores to date
1 FHFC 980 Late
2 Lemlin 957 Late
3 Mike ehrmantraut 946 early
4 Dean Late Earache 945 late
5 Busts 944 early
6 tilted brain 929 late
7 csf 914 early
8 km79 914 early
9 fingers 903 early
10 kilburn 896 late
11 spock 894 early
12 iroced 893 late
13 donal 865 early
14 greedygoblin 847 late

All late wildcarders BB this week. 4 early wildcarders TC and 3 BB.

Iused2likebusts · 26-04-2016 12:01pm

Latest update
Average score for early wildcarders 955 for dgw wildcarders 954
In gw 35 early wildcarders got an average score of 43 after hits, dgw wildcarders got an average score of 33 after hits.

Things have gone pretty much as I expected the past 2 gws. Gw 34 the dgw wildcarders were better set up to score well due to number of dgw players. Gw 35 the non wildcarders would be better set up due to having more available players and in most cases already having the leicester and spurs players that would be popular this week. Id expect wildcarders to outscore early wildcarders in 37 due to having slightly more dgw players.

Ill update this after gw 37 with number of players played between gw33 and gw 37 for each side.
Pretty remarkable that an average of 1 pt seperates both sides after 15 gws of this. As far as I recall the average gap has never been bigger than 16 pts between both sides and most times the gap has been in single digits.

23-05-2016 10:37am

Was there a clear difference between early and late wild cards ?

Iused2likebusts · 23-05-2016 10:49am

Dean Late Earache wrote: »

Was there a clear difference between early and late wild cards ?

Totally forgot about this will do the updated one before the end of the week. There has been little or nothing in it all season.

Iused2likebusts · 29-05-2016 10:03pm

So the average scores from gw 20 when half of us wildcarded to the end of the season is
Early wildcarders 1127
DGW wildcarders 1114

1 Dean Late Earache 1209 DGW W
2 FHFC 1206 DGW W
3 Busts 1156 Early W
4 KM79 1145 Early W
5 Mike Ehrmantrau 1144 Early W
6 Lemlin 1143 DGW W
7 CSF 1128 Early W
8 Fingers 1126 Early W
9 Spock 1124 Early W
10 Tilted Brain 1091 DGW W
11 Iroced 1075 DGW W
12 Donal 1071 Early W
13 Kilburn 1058 DGW W
14 Greedygoblin 1021 DGW W

its been neck and neck everytime Ive checked the scores with one side only ever a few pts ahead of the other. Surprisingly the late wildcarders were 2 pts ahead before the DGW 34 and finished 13 pts behind. A 15 pt swing in favour of the late wildcarders.
Its hard to tell how much to take from these results. Id be interested to hear peoples thoughts.
My take on things is that it doesnt matter when you play your wildcard or your BB. The TC has to be played in a DGW.
What all of us need to consider is not the gains you are making on the casuals . Both early and late wildcarders will clean up against these when it comes to dgws. Its the gains you are making against lads that are in the know. The standard wildcard and dgw BB always needed to consider when other lads used their wildcard and used their BB.
What Ive learned from it is use your wildcard when you need it. Anything over an 8 pt hit wildcard. In an ideal world you can keep your wildcard to in and around the dgw. The BB I will not be keeping for the DGWs. Its too late in the season. Meaningless games, big domestic and european games resulting in rotation. Your also likely to take out key players for a hopeful short term boost.
The mistakes I made due to my early wildcard was not realising until gw 32 that id be better off playing my TC in gw 34 rather than BB. This resulted in me making transfers between gw 28 and 32 that focused on getting dgw players in and not getting in form players with good fixtures like siggy and arnie. For next year I think its best to play your TC in the DGW that has the better fixtures at the expense of a BB if need be. For a DGW 9 or so strong dgw players and a TC is more than enough IMO .

FHFC · 01-06-2016 12:24pm

Just catching up on this, few thoughts.

Not sure how much the exercise tells. A lot of the relative scoring between the two groups are probably down to good old fashioned picking of the right players and captains. The top 2 scorers in the list by a margin of 50 points odd were both DGW wildcarders whose DGW plan came off. Possibly that suggests that if you can keep the WC for that strategy there is a higher ceiling if you get it right and get a bit of luck.

In relation to my own experience and lessons learned, I largely agree with Busts.

One thing to note though, and it has been pointed out here before, is in relation to the risks from rotation etc that beset a lot of DGW BB plans, and that is that this was a fairly unusual DGW set up from the moment Spurs lost to Crystal Palace in the cup. With Leicester also out of the Cup it meant that the 2 title chasers were not involved in DGWs. This not only meant that there were harder calls to make about getting rid of players from those teams for DGWs, but also that it fell in the lap of those who don't plan around blanks in that they had 5 or 6 players for BlankGW30 that would otherwise have decimated their teams for that week and maybe seen them short-sightedly sell some of those key Spurs/Leicester players who haunted many of us in GW34.

If the DGW teams were still among the title/European spot challengers then it would have been a whole different ball game so hard to make a final conclusion from only this season as a sample size.

My own DGW BB went exceptionally well, and my final quarter was amazing having kept my chips and wildcard for those DGWs, so it will be tempting for me to try that again next year. However I agree that it would cost you more in the long term to hold onto the wildcard grimly when your team was in a mess. I set myself up for keeping the WC by taking a -8 around Boxing day and it paid off by putting my team in good shape for Jan and Feb making it a no brainer to keep the wildcard for some form of DGW BB or TC plan.

Also regarding Busts point of costing points by having to make all transfers from GW28 geared towards the DGW plan, this has to go down as an advantage of the late WC as you can play the short term game without ignoring those players mentioned.

Another point is that hits around DGWs especially should not be feared. I took plenty of hits even after my late WC and they paid off every time.

So overall, for next year, I think, once the potential for DGWs (or not) is apparent from the fixture schedule, it's worth having an intention to keep the wildcard and BB late, but not being rigidly stuck to that. If there are unlikely to be two decent DGWs then the option of keeping BB is less attractive, cause as Busts said TC is the only one it makes no sense (statistically/probability wise) to play in a Single GW.

And if you do make it to having the WC for the DGW season there are definitely lesson to be learned from this year regarding tearing up a squad of form players for DGW guys who would otherwise clearly not be touched with a barge pole on the basis of form (I'm looking at you Everton). Although hopefully, as per my first point the choices might not be so hard depending on the identity of the DGW teams.

iroced · 01-06-2016 1:18pm

Great work Busts for keeping track of this.

Unfortunately, I'm not sure there's much to take from it. Mainly because of this very weird season.

1. Early WCers got a huge boost from cheap defenders immediately returning monster scores (15 to 20 pointers).

2. Spurs & Leicester got knocked out of DGWs/blanks fixtures.

3. Unusual high amount of cup games replays.

4. City & Liverpool (2 key DGW teams) progressed further than expected in Europe.

5. 3 & 4 led to an unexpectedly crazy high amount of rotation for the key period (GWs 33 to 37), I mean even keepers got rotated, a premiere for me in 6 years playing the game.

6. Key popular TC blanked like never before (GW33 Lukaku, GW37 Carroll) making the DGW34 TCers the only winners of the game.

7. Fortune/misfortune played a never seen before part in the game this season ; I base my analysis on 6 seasons playing the game, I'd even dare say that it was worse this season than 6 years ago when snow completely messed up the Christmas fixtures and e.g. many of us got a complete random sub captain from a GW where only 3 or 4 games got played.
One example to summarise this season: Darmian DGW34 (don't forget to consider many got him in in a GW32/33 WC for a combined negative score in 33 and dropped to the bench afterwards such that many of the same many got him out as part of a -4 in 34 for him to get a 17 pointer just from 1 game). :rolleyes:.

So, all in all, the differences in your results, Busts, are more down to how any each of us approached the game (Which transfers we made? When? How many hits we took? Which ones? Which captains we chose?) rather than how we played the chips (bar who and when we TCed?) and this early vs late WC made absolutely no differences. To simplify it to a maximum, I'd say that the early huge boost early WCers got from cheap defenders over-overperforming compensated the points you lost from preparing your team for the DGWs/blanks and the one you potentially missed out in these very DGWs/blanks.

We'll see how it goes next season but I really dislike this new chips inclusion to the game. To me they only bring more luck and randomism to the game. And I don't like that.

The early wildcard v the dgw wildcard

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