Boards forecast contest April 2016

M.T. Cranium · 28-03-2016 7:22am #1

1. Predict the IMT (1981-2010 mean 8.6).

2. Predict the MAX (highest temp at any met-ie station)

3. Predict the MIN (lowest temp at any met-ie station)

4. Predict the PRC as a % of normal.

5. Predict the SUN as a % of normal.

6. BONUS == Predict maximum temp for Shannon on Sunday 10th April.

Deadline -- 0300h Friday 1st April, usual late penalties will apply.

Will have the max rainfall bonus some future month, we did it a few years ago in May I think, was going to use it then reconsidered with looks of 1st of April on current models (don't want to have a contender mixed up with the deadlines).

As always, submit your forecast in this sort of template if possible:

M.T. Cranium __________ 7.9 _ 20.3 _ -3.5 _ 115 _ 090 __ 12.0

(subject to edit later, I haven't really thought about it much so ignore those random numbers)

sryanbruen · 28-03-2016 10:26am

sryanbruen __________ 8.0 _ 19.2 _ -3.3 _ 108 _ 97 __ 14.0

Bsal · 28-03-2016 2:56pm

Bsal __________ 8.4 _ 17.5 _ -2.5 _ 120 _ 098 __ 13.0

pauldry · 28-03-2016 11:05pm

Pauldry __________ 7.5 _ 19.4 _ -3.1 _ 108 _ 098 __ 13.0

Rikand · 29-03-2016 11:05am

The warm month is coming this time!

Rikand ________ 9.0 ____ 20.0 _____ -3.5 ______ 100 _____ 120 ______ 14.0

200motels · 29-03-2016 9:35pm

200motels

7.7 _ 20.4 _ -2.8 _ 107 _ 096 __ 14.2

John mac · 30-03-2016 10:12pm

john mac__________ 8.7 _ 22.3 _ -2.5 _ 115 _ 097 __ 15.2

Tae laidir · 30-03-2016 11:19pm

Tae laidir __________ 8.1 _ 21.8 _ -1.8 _ 123 _ 100 __ 12.8

dasa29 · 31-03-2016 12:08am

Dasa29 __________ 8.2 _ 21.0 _ -2.5 _ 110 _ 095 __ 13.5

Schadenfreudia · 31-03-2016 2:35am

8.0 _ 18.1_ minus 4.3 _80 _120 _13.1

New projection:

8.0 _ 18.1_ minus 4.3 _120 _120 _13.1

lostinashford · 31-03-2016 8:49am

lostinashford __________ 8.1 _ 18.8 _ -2.7 _ 104 _ 114 __ 12.6

kindredspirit · 31-03-2016 10:31am

Kindred Spirit. _______________8.7° ___ 19° ___ -2.00° ___100 ___ 100 ___14.0°

DOCARCH · 31-03-2016 3:31pm

DOCARCH __________ 8.1 _ 19.7 _ -3.1 _ 92 _ 105 __ 12.7

Jpmarn · 31-03-2016 4:15pm

Jpmarn_________ 7.4_ 17.9_ -2.5 _ 125 _ 095 __ 10.9

mickger844posts · 31-03-2016 8:47pm

Mickger844posts 7.4, 20.1, -2.6, 115, 87, 11.4

waterways · 31-03-2016 10:47pm

waterways__________ 8.7 _ 18.3 _ -2.7 _ 118 _ 088 __ 13.0

sunflower3 · 31-03-2016 11:11pm

Sunflower3__________ 9.0_ 17.3 _ -1.2 _ 107 _ 099 __ 13.5

dacogawa · 31-03-2016 11:38pm

Dacogawa __________ 8.8 _ 21.0 _ -2.4 _ 104 _ 096 __ 12.9

Schadenfreudia · 31-03-2016 11:57pm

Please note; in view of the current weather forecast I have amended my projection:

8.0 _ 18.1_ minus 4.3 _120 _120 _13.1

jd · 01-04-2016 12:01am

JD __________ 8.3 _ 18.3 _ -2.5 _ 113 _ 093 __ 12.9

mrskinner · 01-04-2016 12:22am

skinner=====> 8•1______20•1°______-3•1°_______121______111_______16•1°

Lumi · 01-04-2016 12:32am

Lumi __________ 8.1 _ 21.4 _ -2.9 _ 101 _ 100 __ 13.7

rameire · 01-04-2016 6:54am

Rameire. 8.5. 18.5. -2.5. 115. 095. 12.5

just updating the figures into the format required, no amendments have been made.

Rameire __________ 8.5 _ 18.5 _ -2.5 _ 115 _ 095 __ 12.5

Jpmarn · 01-04-2016 9:52am

My brother played an April Fools joke on me that snow was forecasted for today.

Schadenfreudia · 01-04-2016 9:54am

Jpmarn wrote: »

My brother played an April Fools joke on me that snow was forecasted for today.

That's snow joke

Rikand · 01-04-2016 11:43am

Schadenfreudia wrote: »

That's snow joke

Joe Public · 01-04-2016 6:22pm

Joe Public __________ 7.7 _ 17.9 _ -3.9 _ 119 _ 090 __ 11.9

Fool, I forgot

M.T. Cranium · 02-04-2016 5:49am

Table of forecasts for April, 2016

FORECASTER ___________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ Shannon 10th

Rikand ________________9.0 _ 20.0 _ -3.5 _ 100 _ 120 ____ 14.0
Sunflower3_____________9.0 _ 17.3 _ -1.2 _ 107 _ 099 ____ 13.5
Dacogawa _____________ 8.8 _ 21.0 _ -2.4 _ 104 _ 096 ____ 12.9
John mac ______________8.7 _ 22.3 _ -2.5 _ 115 _ 097 ____ 15.2
Kindred Spirit __________ 8.7 _ 19.0 _ -2.0 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 14.0
waterways_____________ 8.7 _ 18.3 _ -2.7 _ 118 _ 088 ____ 13.0

Norma L ______________ 8.6 _ 21.0 _ -3.5 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 13.0

Rameire __ (-1) ________ 8.5 _ 18.5 _ -2.5 _ 115 _ 095 ____ 12.5
Bsal __________________8.4 _ 17.5 _ -2.5 _ 120 _ 098 ____ 13.0
JD ___________________ 8.3 _ 18.3 _ -2.5 _ 113 _ 093 ____ 12.9
Dasa29 _______________ 8.2 _ 21.0 _ -2.5 _ 110 _ 095 ____ 13.5
Tae laidir ______________8.1 _ 21.8 _ -1.8 _ 123 _ 100 ____ 12.8
Lumi _________________ 8.1 _ 21.4 _ -2.9 _ 101 _ 100 ____ 13.7

Con Sensus ____________ 8.1 _ 19.4 _ -2.7 _ 108 _ 098 ____ 13.0

MrSkinner _____________ 8.1 _ 20.1 _ -3.1 _ 121 _ 111 ____ 16.1
DOCARCH _____________ 8.1 _ 19.7 _ -3.1 _ 092 _ 105 ____ 12.7
lostinashford ___________8.1 _ 18.8 _ -2.7 _ 104 _ 114 ____ 12.6
sryanbruen ____________ 8.0 _ 19.2 _ -3.3 _ 108 _ 097 ____ 14.0
Schadenfreudia _________8.0 _ 18.1 _ -4.3 _ 120 _ 120 ____ 13.1
M.T. Cranium __________ 7.9 _ 20.3 _ -3.5 _ 115 _ 090 ____ 12.0
200motels _____________7.7 _ 20.4 _ -2.8 _ 107 _ 096 ____ 14.2
Joe Public ____ (-3) _____ 7.7 _ 17.9 _ -3.9 _ 119 _ 090 ____ 11.9
Pauldry _______________ 7.5 _ 19.4 _ -3.1 _ 108 _ 098 ____ 13.0
Mickger844posts ________7.4 _ 20.1 _ -2.6 _ 115 _ 087 ____ 11.4
Jpmarn _______________ 7.4 _ 17.9 _ -2.5 _ 125 _ 095 ____ 10.9
_________________________________________________________

23 forecasts, will add any later ones and adjust Con Sensus.

Our group consensus seems to indicate a rather cool month with near normal rain and sunshine although with a slight tendency to the wet and cloudy side.

Rikand · 02-04-2016 8:14am

Woo hoo! I'm first!

pauldry · 02-04-2016 11:09am

Consensus nearly copied me!!

Im not a robot :pac:

pauldry · 06-04-2016 5:50pm

oly crawp

theres no sign of any decent max this month or 10th april shannon

no 89s this month guys

yel all be in the 40s like me!!

sryanbruen · 06-04-2016 5:53pm

pauldry wrote: »

oly crawp

theres no sign of any decent max this month or 10th april shannon

no 89s this month guys

yel all be in the 40s like me!!

Only time will tell what will happen! It could turn out like May 2012.

May 2012 started with an unseasonably cold and largely unsettled chunk of weather. The first weekend of May 2012 was colder than Christmas 2011! But then around May 21st - 29th, it became much warmer with temperatures reaching the mid 20s in plenty of places. So never say never!

dacogawa · 07-04-2016 12:15pm

Early 20's in the last 3rd of the month... maybe

pauldry · 08-04-2016 11:22am

At present met eireann say 5 to 9c for Sundays Bonus day:eek:

Tae laidir · 08-04-2016 2:40pm

pauldry wrote: »

At present met eireann say 5 to 9c for Sundays Bonus day:eek:

But MT forecasts a max of 11.
Who do you believe?

M.T. Cranium · 08-04-2016 4:39pm

I suspect it will be 5 to 9 daytime and a max of 11 before midnight sort of a thing.

First week of data ...

IMT at 7.6 (-0.5 relative to normal for week)

PRC 210% of normal

SUN 78% of normal (-1 in rounding).

sryanbruen · 08-04-2016 5:00pm

This wet first week reminds me a lot of June 2012!

pauldry · 09-04-2016 2:04pm

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I suspect it will be 5 to 9 daytime and a max of 11 before midnight sort of a thing.

First week of data ...

IMT at 7.6 (-0.5 relative to normal for week)

PRC 210% of normal

SUN 78% of normal (-1 in rounding).

We shudda done how much rain in munster station April 10th 50mm??

pauldry · 10-04-2016 1:24pm

new min dublin -2.7c

but markree ran it close ..yes -3.3c so markree wins

max shannon 10.1c

Tae laidir · 11-04-2016 12:41pm

Oak Park max 11.6 yesterday.

M.T. Cranium · 11-04-2016 7:31pm

Okay, so the actual max at Shannon was colder than any of us suspected, JPmarn at 10.9 was closest, then Mickger844posts at 11.4 and Joe Public at 11.9 C. These will get the maximum ten points. Will then go down the list in pairs although I expect multiple ties here and there to make this rather a bumpy ride down to the highest two forecasts scoring zero points.

Thanks for spotting those minima, I was just about to do a search. Surely the max will be a lot warmer than anything achieved so far.

M.T. Cranium · 15-04-2016 6:04pm

After two weeks (14 days) ...

The IMT stood at 7.2 with the week at a cool 6.8 (1.7 below the normal value for the week).

PRC remains high, at 181% of normal, with this past week close to 151% despite quite a range.

SUN continues to be weak at 82% with this past week 86% (-2 stat for cumulative rounding now at -3, 163.5/2)

I have not made any notes on MAX but I think I saw the staggering figure of 15 and change the other day.

Looking ahead, the IMT seems likely to drift around in the vicinity of 7 for much of next week, PRC may come down a bit and SUN may improve a bit. Whether we get a max inside the range of predictions remains to be seen.

sryanbruen · 16-04-2016 12:24pm

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Table of forecasts for April, 2016

FORECASTER ___________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ Shannon 10th

Rikand ________________9.0 _ 20.0 _ -3.5 _ 100 _ 120 ____ 14.0
Sunflower3_____________9.0 _ 17.3 _ -1.2 _ 107 _ 099 ____ 13.5
Dacogawa _____________ 8.8 _ 21.0 _ -2.4 _ 104 _ 096 ____ 12.9
John mac ______________8.7 _ 22.3 _ -2.5 _ 115 _ 097 ____ 15.2
Kindred Spirit __________ 8.7 _ 19.0 _ -2.0 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 14.0
waterways_____________ 8.7 _ 18.3 _ -2.7 _ 118 _ 088 ____ 13.0

Norma L ______________ 8.6 _ 21.0 _ -3.5 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 13.0

Rameire __ (-1) ________ 8.5 _ 18.5 _ -2.5 _ 115 _ 095 ____ 12.5
Bsal __________________8.4 _ 17.5 _ -2.5 _ 120 _ 098 ____ 13.0
JD ___________________ 8.3 _ 18.3 _ -2.5 _ 113 _ 093 ____ 12.9
Dasa29 _______________ 8.2 _ 21.0 _ -2.5 _ 110 _ 095 ____ 13.5
Tae laidir ______________8.1 _ 21.8 _ -1.8 _ 123 _ 100 ____ 12.8
Lumi _________________ 8.1 _ 21.4 _ -2.9 _ 101 _ 100 ____ 13.7

Con Sensus ____________ 8.1 _ 19.4 _ -2.7 _ 108 _ 098 ____ 13.0

MrSkinner _____________ 8.1 _ 20.1 _ -3.1 _ 121 _ 111 ____ 16.1
DOCARCH _____________ 8.1 _ 19.7 _ -3.1 _ 092 _ 105 ____ 12.7
lostinashford ___________8.1 _ 18.8 _ -2.7 _ 104 _ 114 ____ 12.6
sryanbruen ____________ 8.0 _ 19.2 _ -3.3 _ 108 _ 097 ____ 14.0
Schadenfreudia _________8.0 _ 18.1 _ -4.3 _ 120 _ 120 ____ 13.1
M.T. Cranium __________ 7.9 _ 20.3 _ -3.5 _ 115 _ 090 ____ 12.0
200motels _____________7.7 _ 20.4 _ -2.8 _ 107 _ 096 ____ 14.2
Joe Public ____ (-3) _____ 7.7 _ 17.9 _ -3.9 _ 119 _ 090 ____ 11.9
Pauldry _______________ 7.5 _ 19.4 _ -3.1 _ 108 _ 098 ____ 13.0
Mickger844posts ________7.4 _ 20.1 _ -2.6 _ 115 _ 087 ____ 11.4
Jpmarn _______________ 7.4 _ 17.9 _ -2.5 _ 125 _ 095 ____ 10.9
_________________________________________________________

23 forecasts, will add any later ones and adjust Con Sensus.

Our group consensus seems to indicate a rather cool month with near normal rain and sunshine although with a slight tendency to the wet and cloudy side.

Sunflower3 so far the closest to the maximum that was recorded so far. It doesn't look like getting any higher!

pauldry · 17-04-2016 12:55pm

id say the West will get to 16c this week Newport or Belmullet

pauldry · 20-04-2016 7:45pm

17.9c Valentia

but Markree and Newport ran it close.

Newports weather station is in a sheltered spot under a dip in the road and regularly goes high in this set up

sryanbruen · 20-04-2016 7:47pm

pauldry wrote: »

17.9c Valentia

but Markree and Newport ran it close.

Newports weather station is in a sheltered spot under a dip in the road and regularly goes high in this set up

Jpmarn and Joe Public bang on then!

pauldry · 21-04-2016 11:22am

Newport topped it at 18.2c

pauldry · 22-04-2016 12:39am

On forecast at 930 joanna said markree got 18.9c

well sligo got 17.7c so i dont know

plus the markree station was out of action for a few hours

in any case claremorris got 18.5c

M.T. Cranium · 22-04-2016 2:00am

Hey in this new setup the sticky threads (such as this one) are not on the menu. So how do you access them? I just found a link to this one at the top of the page. If the sticky threads aren't in the menu, I would suggest doing away with the sticky function as it sticks them out of view.

M.T. Cranium · 22-04-2016 2:13am

The edit function does not seem to be turned on yet ... so I can't edit the above ... however, I accidentally figured out the answer to my question, you click on "charter and important" to see sticky threads. That is a green box located upper right on my screen (I am on a fixed device not a mobile).

Would suggest that we do away with at least some of the sticky threads if they are going to be outside the main menu, a lot of people won't find them. I did, but even a blind squirrel finds the occasional nut.

pauldry · 22-04-2016 9:31am

i couldnt find it either MT but typed boards.ie weather into google and got redirected through past visits/history

Boards forecast contest April 2016

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