A Slow Journey to Faster Times

Murph_D wrote: »

That's incredibly consistent. By feel or watching the pace?

Bit of both :P

Tomorrow's musings:

Cheltenham 2016

Day 3


1:30 JLT Novice's Chase

I have doubts about plenty of the runners here. Most near the top of the market have shown a marked preference for soft ground which is hugely off putting considering the current going. Bristol De Mai didn't run here last year for that reason, while Outlander disappointed when favourite for the Neptune. Black Hercules also ran poorly at the 2015 festival when strongly fancied for the Albert Bartlett and comes here off the back of a fall. Most of his best form is on heavy. L'Ami Serge won his Grade 1 over hurdles on deep ground, and although he ran ok behind Douvan in the Supreme he was badly beaten by Violet Dancer last time. Of the runners remaining I'm going to take a chance on Zabana & Three Musketeers. Zabana ran very badly at Leopardstown last month, but had been impressive over Christmas and went very close to winning at last year's meeting when second in the Coral Cup. He followed that up with a third to Jezki & Hurricane Fly at Punchestown. Both those runs were on better ground, which he'll definitely appreciate here. Three Musketeers is fairly unexposed and has been targeted at this race all season. He ran poorly here on New Year's Day, but that was his only start on heavy ground which he obviously didn't like. On his form before that, he's got a chance.

Verdict: Back Zabana @ 12/1 & Three Musketeers @ 10/1


2:10 Pertemps Final

This race is probably choc full of plot jobs, but one I like with good handicap form who may be capable of his current mark is Westren Warrior @ 25/1.

Verdict: Back Westren Warrior e/w @ 25/1


2:50 Ryanair Chase

This looked a poor renewal and a wide open race until Vautour was rerouted here from the Gold Cup. He looks a certainty, but he's also priced up that way at odds-on. Taquin Du Seuil looks the value each way alternative at 20/1. He's also available at 10/1 in the w/o Vautour market.

Verdict: Back Taquin Du Seuil e/w without Vautour @ 10/1


3:30 World Hudle

Thistlecrack is a very solid favourite here and will probably win. Again though, he's a very short price for a horse who's never previously run at the festival. If Saphir Du Rheu came back to the form he was in when second here last year he'd have a decent chance, but the reason he's 10/1 is because he hasn't shown that sort of form recently. I'll take a chance that he can bounce back at the price.

Verdict: Back Saphir Du Rheu e/w @ 10/1


4:10 Brown Advisory Plate

Another nightmare of a handicap with lots of chances. I did like Barry Geraghty getting down to 10-4 to ride Full Shift, while Fingal Bay looks well treated compared to his old hurdles form. Both are priced up that way however, and I'll leave them win at their current odds without my money on them. This is not a race where the fancied horses have a good record. I therefore feel compelled to go with something further down the market and I think I've found a live one. Le Vaticane is 5lb well in here after a wide margin win last time and still only carries 10-7. I have a feeling this may have been the plan all season. He'll do.

Verdict: Back La Vaticane e/w @ 20/1


4:50 Mares Novice Hurdle

Limini is all the rage in this market since it was opened. On all known form she'll be hard to beat. Smart Talk is solid, but you'd imagine the Mullins mare will have too much for her. There are a couple of less exposed types like Bloody Mary, but they've got a lot to find on bare form. One to watch I think.

Verdict: No bet


5:30 Kim Muir Handicap Chase

Doctor Harper is the talking horse here, having looked like he's been lined up for this all season. However last year's NH Chase winner Cause Of Causes has everything in his favour again here and looks a fair price. Top amateur Jamie Codd is booked to ride too and he's ridden the winner three times in recent years.

Verdict: Back Cause Of Causes @ 6/1

neilc wrote: »

Didn't get to watch today, how'd day 2 tips go?

Gavlor wrote: »

That's just mean

neilc wrote: »

ha ha genuinely hadn't checked, take it they didn't go well so!

Still no winners, but some nice place payouts at big prices (14/1 & 33/1).
Still slightly ahead.
Thursday is usually a bloodbath though.
Fingers crossed

Would have been a total bloodbath today only for Cause Of Causes in the last. How the f*ck did Vautour go off evens?

Anyway, Day 4:


1:30 Triumph Hurdle

This looks a poor renewal with no standout candidate and everything beating each other. Who Dares Wins was a decent flat horse and will be suited by better ground than he encountered at Cheltenham last time. He may be better than the bare result of that race considering he got into a prolonged battle for the lead a long way from home. He looks a fair price at 12/1 in an open contest.

Verdict: Back Who Dares Wins e/w @ 12/1


2:10 County Hurdle

As difficult as ever to solve, I'm going to plump for last year's bumper runner up Modus. He looks like he could be well handicapped after some recent defeats on soft ground for Paul Nicholls who has a good record in this race.

Verdict: Back Modus e/w @ 16/1


2:50 Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle

A decent looking contest with the unbeaten Barters Hill and a couple of Willie Mullins Grade 1 winners amongst the field. However I'm going to go elsewhere to find the winner. I really like the look of Shantou Village whose only defeat came behind Yanworth here on heavy ground. He should be suited by the sounder surface and the step up in trip.

Verdict: Back Shantou Village @ 9/2


3:30 Gold Cup

I'm all over Don Poli, an out and out Gold Cup horse if ever I saw one. In my opinion, he's got the least questions to answer of the big four, yet he's the biggest price. Get on!

Verdict: Back Don Poli @ 5/1


4:10 Foxhunters Chase

On The Fringe looks a level above these on his day, but his only run since last season was a poor seventh at Leopardstown last month. Current Event looks an interesting contender. He wasn't suited by the soft ground when well beaten in last year's renewal, but could be a different proposition on the sounder surface tomorrow.

Verdict: Back Current Event e/w @ 20/1


4:50 Martin Pipe Conditionals Handicap Hurdle

Willie Mullins has done well in this recently, so I'll plump for one of his for the interest. Whiteout looks interesting contesting his first handicap and can hopefully add to the tally of this year's leading trainer. Not a race to be confident about though.

Verdict: Back Whiteout e/w @ 25/1


5:30 Grand Annual Handicap Chase

This isn't much easier than the previous race. Sizing Codelco is a lightly raced horse with some useful lines of form. His trainer's horses usually improve for fences and he may be capable of scoring off his current mark.

Verdict: Back Sizing Codelco e/w @ 16/1

Saturday 19th March - 45 minutes Easy
5.32m @ 8:29p/m average (128bpm avg)

Easy one home from work.

Sunday 20th March - 170 minutes Easy
20m @ 8:29p/m average (137bpm avg)

Up at an ungodly hour again to get this in before work. Couldn't have fit it in otherwise.

Saturday 26th March - 55 minutes Recovery
6.09m @ 9:02p/m average (122bpm avg)

Miserable morning for it. Some contrast to yesterday.

With three weeks to go, I have dumped both the P&D and Daniels plans. I am now following the PD (Daniel) plan .

Monday 28th March - Rest

Felt like a deserved day off after Sunday's effort.

Tuesday 29th March - 45 minutes Easy
5.29m @ 8:30p/m average (128bpm avg)

Still a bit tired. Happy enough to leave it at that for today.

Wednesday 30th March - Yasso 800 Session
10.08m total

Thought I'd give this a go again.

1m w/u - 8:28

Rep 1 - 2:58
Rep 2 - 2:59
Rep 3 - 2:57
Rep 4 - 2:59
Rep 5 - 2:56
Rep 6 - 3:01
Rep 7 - 2:52
Rep 8 - 2:51
Rep 9 - 3:02
Rep 10 - 2:52

1m c/d - 8:45

Last time I did this, I averaged 2:53 and ran 2:59 in Berlin. This time I averaged 2:57. It'll do.

Thursday 31st March - 105 minutes Easy
13m @ 8:04p/m average (131bpm avg)

Thoroughly enjoyed this. Felt really effortless.


I'm taking another rest day tomorrow and will do my final 20m run on Saturday. After that I'm just going to keep myself ticking over for the next fortnight. Can't make any more fitness gains, but could easily f*ck it up by doing something stupid.

AuldManKing wrote: »

2 real good sessions.
The 5-4-3-2-1 Session is suberb - even more so as it was off 800m.
Great turnaround in training.

Thanks a lot.
I'm hoping I can turn around that awful New York result now too

So, this marathon cycle since is just about complete. I know I've still got two weeks to go, but I won't be fretting over what I do/don't get done in that time. In my opinion, anything that's going to affect my performance already has/hasn't been completed.

Not for the first time, my training hasn't been perfect with some slightly disappointing race results along the way. However, many times in the past I've run pbs all the way up to the marathon, before performing below expectations there. I'm hoping the reverse can be true in this case.

To summarise....

Positives

More than 1000 miles logged since the NYC Marathon
Average of 50-60mpw
6 runs of 20m+ runs (2 with more than 50% MP miles)

Negatives

Missed training due to holidays/niggle
Average race results
Failure to hit paces in some key sessions

Thoughts

Although I missed some training in February, I feel it came at the right time as I had enough time left before the marathon to throw myself back into solid training and get some consistency back. A month later would have been a lot more damaging. I also feel the little break actually did me some good. I still managed to log 100 miles in February despite the layoff, which wasn't disastrous. As mentioned in my Ballycotton report at the time, my Vdot still pointed to a pb marathon off that race performance, with 6 weeks still remaining to get even fitter. In the 4 weeks since, I've averaged around 60mpw with that day being the only weekend since I got back to Ireland that I didn't post a run of 20 miles or more. It's been further rammed home to me in the past few weeks (due to the experiences of myself & others) what the most difficult thing about the marathon is. It's not getting to the start line or running the race in the best time you possibly can. It's getting yourself to the start line in the best possible condition, which will then allow you the opportunity to run to your potential. There's a really fine line between under/over doing it in training. I'm hoping I'm coming to the boil myself just in time :cool:. As we all know, a lot of things can happen on the day to influence results, but that is beyond anyone's control.

Conclusion

I've got a chance

Sunday 10th April - 13m Med/Long Run
13m @8:29p/m average (132bpm avg)

Last run of any real length before the big one. Had the pleasure of Murph_D's company to help the miles tick by quicker.

aquinn wrote: »

And finally, P.

Wishing you all the very best in Boston.

I'm not sure I can stalk on strava. I hope you have a great race.

Thanks


*I'm not on Strava