Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie
Help Keep Boards Alive. Support us by going ad free today. See here: https://subscriptions.boards.ie/.
If we do not hit our goal we will be forced to close the site.

Current status: https://keepboardsalive.com/

Annual subs are best for most impact. If you are still undecided on going Ad Free - you can also donate using the Paypal Donate option. All contribution helps. Thank you.

What will happen when all the low skill jobs are gone?

124678

Comments

  • #92
    listermint
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 34,182 ✭✭✭✭listermint


    eeguy wrote: »
    So Enda Kenny came under fire for calling the people of Castlebar whiners when they said there was no recovery in the west of Ireland.
    Castlebar has had a series of factory closures since 2008 and the service industry has suffered too as a result.
    Up and down Ireland (and the UK), factories in small towns are closing and will never be replaced. Any factories that have opened in recent years are in or around cities and are heavily automated, having only a small core staff to maintain production.
    In the next 2 decades automation is going to really take off replacing traditional low skill jobs in manufacturing, transport and retail.

    So what happens when thousands are made redundant through automation?
    What happens when anyone who drives or does any repetitive task is made unemployable as it's cheaper and more efficient to automate the process?
    Is it the end of civilisation as we know it?

    I dont know, we could possibly start creating jobs in the renewable energy sector. (as in seriously creating) and putting back into fishing again.

    We need to start thinking Internal on some matters like Energy dependency and food.

    One could easily see 50,000 -100,000 in these sectors if the government got it right.

    But sure there would be no sense to that i mean we can survive importing 90% of our energy needs...........


  • #93
    conorhal
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,080 ✭✭✭conorhal


    Sure we'll all work in IT (doesn't everybody already) and those that don't can find gainful employment selling frapachino's, skinny jeans and beard wax to those working in Google and Facebook. Be grand!


  • #94
    jester77
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,264 ✭✭✭✭jester77


    There will always be low skilled jobs. What might have considered high skill a number of years ago will eventually be low skill as everyone's knowledge and skill evolves. It's just a natural progression.


  • #95
    RDM_83 again
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,116 ✭✭✭RDM_83 again


    conorhal wrote: »
    Sure we'll all work in IT (doesn't everybody already) and those that don't can find gainful employment selling frapachino's, skinny jeans and beard wax to those working in Google and Facebook. Be grand!

    I know (well I hope!) this is sarcasm but these type of threads tend to bring out the IT master race crowd.

    Which ignores the fact that IT/programming on a medium term is something that IMO is a career that's really at risk from advancing technology.
    Using AI or developing platforms that make programming extremely simple seems quite likely to me leaving a small amount of very high skilled programmers working on the tools that allow Joe Soap the factory foreman or office admin to easily develop their own processes.
    Or in the near future multiple small projects outsourced to China/India and "smarter" QA tools and task assignment doing the rest.

    I also see automation devastating the 3rd world economies with production moving back to first world countries that can afford the high initial costs.

    Personally I think skilled tradesmen will continue to be in a good place, robotics is good for manufacturing and predictable environments but will struggle with a lot of conditions.


  • #96
    eeguy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,399 ✭✭✭eeguy


    ScumLord wrote: »
    Improved clothing producing machines could bring high end Haute couture to more people as you don't have to pay for the one off made by one highly skilled designer. Instead you're buying the design and a machine puts it together in the same way it would have been done by hand.
    I do like that idea.
    Everyone moves into sales and customer support. It would be great if instead of just pocketing the difference companies would reinvest some of the cash saved into proper after sales support.
    I really don't see that happening. Maybe a small group are answering phones, but look at how hard it's becoming to talk to a person now.
    Everything is automated and online.
    Still need people to oversee the whole process. The automated checkout isn't going to do anything to make sure anyone pays.
    There's usually 1 person to 6 self-service. The cost of shop lifting is already included in the price. I'd say the cost of employees far exceeds the losses from shoplifting.
    Even packing shelfs is something that's probably beyond AI for a while due to the shelfs changing so often. I could actually see shelf stacking becoming a more professional job in the future.
    Professional planners already design shelf layouts. It doesn't take a genius to implement them. B&M shops are on the way out as it stands. Main streets up and down the country are quickly failing.
    The way businesses work are changing too, they're trying to work around having to have geniuses/experts, departments are getting larger with people specialised more into smaller parts of the process.
    So we are generating more jobs through the process of building intelligence redundancy into our endeavours.
    Can you give an example? I don't think I've ever seen that.
    RDM_83 again wrote: »
    I also see automation devastating the 3rd world economies with production moving back to first world countries that can afford the high initial costs.
    It seems to be the case that if you can't afford western labour, go to Asia.
    If you find that Asia doesn't suit, automate.
    In both cases, the general workforce loses out.

    There's a lot of talk about the return of manufacture to Europe and the US, but it's driven by robotics and automation. An automated factory costs the same regardless of where you are on the globe.
    Robotics is good for manufacturing and predictable environments but will struggle with a lot of conditions.
    Robotics in construction is a huge area now. Robotic bricklayers that take pallets of bricks and build a wall, 3d printed structures. Even look at the amount of automation in a timber frame house.


  • Advertisement
  • #97
    222233
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,114 ✭✭✭222233


    I look forward to the day this happens, robots would be so much more efficient than some people who can't do the simplest of jobs


  • #98
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 31,828 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    listermint wrote: »
    We need to start thinking Internal on some matters like Energy dependency and food.

    One could easily see 50,000 -100,000 in these sectors if the government got it right.

    But sure there would be no sense to that i mean we can survive importing 90% of our energy needs...........
    50- 100,000 are you proposing that we revert to drawing turf by hand!
    That would need such numbers to achieve.


  • #99
    Damnyou
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12 ✭Damnyou


    Easca Peasca wrote: »
    Everyone will be working in IT.

    Crazy they don't teach various levels of I.T in secondary schools. Huge shortage of people in Ireland an but instead teach Irish and Religion.

    They teach Science and busisness subjects, why not I T?


  • #100
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 31,828 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Damnyou wrote: »
    Crazy they don't teach various levels of I.T in secondary schools. Huge shortage of people in Ireland an but instead teach Irish and Religion.

    They teach Science and busisness subjects, why not I T?
    Because you need to train the teachers to teach it first, the industry is too fast moving for the average second level school teacher to keep up with the trends.

    Most of the skills shortages are in very specialised sectors in IT, where the recruiters want 6+ years experience in technology that didn't exist three years ago! :rolleyes:


  • #101
    Damnyou
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12 ✭Damnyou


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Because you need to train the teachers to teach it first, the industry is too fast moving for the average second level school teacher to keep up with the trends.

    Most of the skills shortages are in very specialised sectors in IT, where the recruiters want 6+ years experience in technology that didn't exist three years ago! :rolleyes:

    It's secondary school. They don't need to be top gurus in it like anything else thought in secondary school. It's an introduction subject like everything thought in secondary school and would give people a solid foundation.

    I'm sure there's expierenced I.T people who would like to do it or people just graduated from a masters.

    From working in the industry it's not changing as dramatically as your making it out to be. You could have a oracle subject focusing on project work, Cisco subject focusing on project work , Java/PHP subject focusing on project work, linux/windows server subject. Material would be based on some of the easier exams in the field. These all would be thought at a level that a college grad would be able to teach at.


  • Advertisement
  • #102
    eeguy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,399 ✭✭✭eeguy


    222233 wrote: »
    I look forward to the day this happens, robots would be so much more efficient than some people who can't do the simplest of jobs

    The fundamental question is what happens to those people.

    Are we creating a massive welfare class of people that don't fit into narrowly defined professions which are untouched by automation?


  • #103
    222233
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,114 ✭✭✭222233


    eeguy wrote: »
    The fundamental question is what happens to those people.

    Are we creating a massive welfare class of people that don't fit into narrowly defined professions which are untouched by automation?

    I personally think that we already have a massive welfare class of people.

    What will happen - we will continue to pay our hard earned money in taxes, those who couldn't up skill or weren't bothered will be replaced by efficient technology eliminating human error.


  • #104
    karma_
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 6,798 ✭✭✭karma_


    Deleted User wrote: »

    In the future, I suspect that "Limits to growth" will kick in as fossil fuels & many of the rarer elements that support modern electronics become scarce, we could see a reverse of certain automated systems because it'll be cheaper to employ a human drone than a robot.

    This, being the finite world that it is naturally means there has to come a time where there is a zero growth economy. That's never going to happen, the whole edifice of the capitalist system is built on the idea of compound growth. Jesus anything under 3% is considered recession!!

    Now, show me the capitalist who will settle for that.


  • #105
    Iwasfrozen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,250 ✭✭✭✭Iwasfrozen


    karma_ wrote: »
    This, being the finite world that it is naturally means there has to come a time where there is a zero growth economy. That's never going to happen, the whole edifice of the capitalist system is built on the idea of compound growth. Jesus anything under 3% is considered recession!!

    Now, show me the capitalist who will settle for that.

    New technologies like nuclear fusion will push growth beyond the current boundaries.

    That the Earth is finite is neither here nor there the universe is infinite and as far as we know it's all ours to exploit.


  • #106
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 31,828 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Damnyou wrote: »
    It's secondary school. They don't need to be top gurus in it like anything else thought in secondary school. It's an introduction subject like everything thought in secondary school and would give people a solid foundation.

    I'm sure there's expierenced I.T people who would like to do it or people just graduated from a masters.

    From working in the industry it's not changing as dramatically as your making it out to be. You could have a oracle subject focusing on project work, Cisco subject focusing on project work , Java/PHP subject focusing on project work, linux/windows server subject. Material would be based on some of the easier exams in the field. These all would be thought at a level that a college grad would be able to teach at.
    The IT firm that I work for are bringing them in from China to do the coding, cheaper and they can get the quantity!


  • #107
    karma_
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 6,798 ✭✭✭karma_


    Iwasfrozen wrote: »
    New technologies like nuclear fusion will push growth beyond the current boundaries.

    Like I said, there is a finite amount of resources. I'm sorry to be the bearer of such bad news, but unending compound growth is impossible.


  • #108
    eeguy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,399 ✭✭✭eeguy


    222233 wrote: »
    What will happen - we will continue to pay our hard earned money in taxes, those who couldn't up skill or weren't bothered will be replaced by efficient technology eliminating human error.
    That doesn't answer the question.
    Those people don't go away. You just get a growing welfare class and shrinking working class.

    There will be have to be a fundamental shift in the way our society operates and how we value work and self-worth.


  • #109
    Iwasfrozen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,250 ✭✭✭✭Iwasfrozen


    karma_ wrote: »
    Like I said, there is a finite amount of resources. I'm sorry to be the bearer of such bad news, but unending compound growth is impossible.

    As long as we continue to developed more efficient energy sources there is nothing to suggest we can't continue to grow.

    Besides like I said the Earth is finite but this is neither here nor there the universe is infinite and as far as we know its resources are all ours to exploit.


  • #110
    karma_
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 6,798 ✭✭✭karma_


    Iwasfrozen wrote: »
    As long as we continue to developed more efficient energy sources there is nothing to suggest we can't continue to grow.

    Besides like I said the Earth is finite but this is neither here nor there the universe is infinite and as far as we know its resources are all ours to exploit.

    So essentially you suggest that we will invent ways to derive an infinite amount of growth out of a finite amount of resources?

    Tell me another one.

    Here though, thanks for proving my point.


  • #111
    Iwasfrozen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,250 ✭✭✭✭Iwasfrozen


    karma_ wrote: »
    So essentially you suggest that we will invent ways to derive an infinite amount of growth out of a finite amount of resources?

    Tell me another one.

    Here though, thanks for proving my point.
    Nope, read my post again lad.


  • Advertisement
  • #112
    karma_
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 6,798 ✭✭✭karma_


    Iwasfrozen wrote: »
    Nope, read my post again lad.

    Console yourself in the thought that nothing lasts forever, lad. All things end.


  • #113
    Iwasfrozen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,250 ✭✭✭✭Iwasfrozen


    karma_ wrote: »
    Console yourself in the thought that nothing lasts forever, lad. All things end.

    Space and time last forever. Not sure what that has to do with your nebulous point though.


  • #114
    karma_
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 6,798 ✭✭✭karma_


    Iwasfrozen wrote: »
    Space and time last forever. Not sure what that has to do with your nebulous point though.

    I guess space might, you could well be right about something, alas the universe certainly doesn't and no one is even sure if time exists really.

    Anyway, you were going to explain how we extract infinite growth out of finite resources? Floor's yours friend.


  • #115
    Billy86
    Closed Accounts Posts: 23,495 ✭✭✭✭Billy86


    Skatedude wrote: »
    People said exactly the same thing with the invention of the steam engine.
    And automated/easier to use elevators.
    And automated bowling pin resetters.
    And telephone advances with regards to switchboards.
    And automated ice cutters
    And automated street lamps
    And alarm clocks.



    Permabear pretty much nailed it in post 46 though, not just people but all of society needs to adapt. It's a real pain that bureaucracy and tradition-for-the-sake-of-tradition often results in an education system not fit for the world those students will be entering into; something that should be very fluid and adaptable yet is among the most rigid areas of society.


  • #116
    eeguy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,399 ✭✭✭eeguy


    karma_ wrote: »
    Anyway, you were going to explain how we extract infinite growth out of finite resources? Floor's yours friend.

    The original point was that we will continue to develop technology to stretch the resources available to us and try to minimize our impact on the planet.

    Yeah, resources are finite, but workarounds will be developed.


  • #117
    Iwasfrozen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,250 ✭✭✭✭Iwasfrozen


    karma_ wrote: »
    I guess space might, you could well be right about something, alas the universe certainly doesn't and no one is even sure if time exists really.

    Anyway, you were going to explain how we extract infinite growth out of finite resources? Floor's yours friend.

    Space and time are really the same thing at this scale, if one exists the other does too.

    We can extract continued growth as long as our energy sources continue to become more efficient. Besides we aren't constrained to the Earth's resources, the universe is infinite and all ours to exploit.


  • #118
    karma_
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 6,798 ✭✭✭karma_


    eeguy wrote: »
    The original point was that we will continue to develop technology to stretch the resources available to us and try to minimize our impact on the planet.

    Yeah, resources are finite, but workarounds will be developed.

    It's exactly that premise which is flawed. The basic math just doesn't add up.


  • #119
    Billy86
    Closed Accounts Posts: 23,495 ✭✭✭✭Billy86


    JRant wrote: »
    The States is a perfect example of where they have been allowed do pretty much whatever they like with no accountability. People are seen as nothing more than commodities to be used up and spat out as needed.
    I am working in a recruitment company at the minute (payroll/admin, not the actual recruiting) and this reminded me two weeks ago when half our staff were a day late getting paid (because our client that they work for was late paying us), our accounting commenting that "our inventory are unhappy".

    Thankfully, everyone else lost their sh*t over it :pac: ! Still kind of worrying though seeing that attitude anywhere.


  • #120
    karma_
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 6,798 ✭✭✭karma_


    Iwasfrozen wrote: »
    Space and time are really the same thing at this scale, if one exists the other does too.

    We can extract continued growth as long as our energy sources continue to become more efficient. Besides we aren't constrained to the Earth's resources, the universe is infinite and all ours to exploit.

    I realise we got all monty python sometime ago, but even if we took the math to this farcical extreme, the Universe is finite also, the math still doesn't compute. There is going to have to come a time where zero growth is seen as acceptable, I know this is a bitter pill for free-market capitalists to swallow, but swallow they must.


  • Advertisement
  • #121
    kupus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,151 ✭✭✭kupus


    ...And Justice wrote: »
    We'll have to kill the poor :(

    its already happening, its called the hse, its called repeat offenders, etc.


Advertisement