Fianna Fail & Fianna Gael

Ren2k7 · 16-02-2016 07:03PM

First Up wrote: »

Exactly not the way to lure potential voters.

Good man.

Most ordinary folk would be delighted to see the Deefers go wild with impotent fury in the event of a SF victory.

oscarBravo · 16-02-2016 07:12PM

Ren2k7 wrote: »

SF did what had to be done to defend the Irish people in NI from British death squads. What did your lot do during the anti-Irish pogroms of the 60's/70's? Oh that's right, authorised Garda brutality against alleged Republicans, shut down any investigation into the Dublin and Monaghan Bombings and sided with the Brits. FGLAB have a lot to answer for, especially the repeated claims of British agents sitting at the Irish cabinet table. Traitors doesn't come close to describing the Gaelers and their Stickie mudguards.

My lot??

It is hard to distance the party from that whiff all the same, isn't it?

Ren2k7 · 16-02-2016 07:59PM

oscarBravo wrote: »

My lot??

It is hard to distance the party from that whiff all the same, isn't it?

For most people it isn't an issue. All the main parties have the lingering after-smell of corditte following them from past affiliations with "terror" groups. SF is here to stay and people need to start getting used to this.

gandalf · 16-02-2016 08:48PM

Ren2k7 wrote: »

Most ordinary folk would be delighted to see the Deefers go wild with impotent fury in the event of a SF victory.

I think you are overestimating SF's popularity with the average punter in Ireland. Some would say its bordering on deluded!

TripleC · 16-02-2016 09:18PM

Hmmmm

I am glad to see some realistic views on the likelihood of an FG/FF Coalition.....finally!

The idea is really being pushed by The Independent. However, given their glaringly obvious anti-FG and pro-FF stance in this election its not difficult to see why they would keep floating the idea.

There does seem to be some rather delusional people out there though. There are usually three reasons given as to why such a Coalition is achievable.

1. Fine Gael and Fianna Fail are exactly the same.

2. Fine Gael and Fianna Fail coalescing would enable the Left to finally unite on the Opposition benches and usher in a Left wing Government.

3. The bookies rate it as the most likely outcome.

To refute those points in order:

1. FG and FF aren't actually that similar. To start with FF, clerical Social policies aside, they have always been an avowedly tax and spend, pro-Trade Union, big state (anti-free market) fiscally left wing party. In contrast, FG is much closer to the Classical fiscally Conservative pro-business parties encountered on Continental Europe. Additionally, since the 60s at least FG has partly adopted Liberal (in an Irish context) Social policies. On some of these issues they have converged in recent years, such as on Social issues. But arguably however, on Economic matters they have moved further apart, such as Economic issues.

2. Literally, why would FG and FF form a coalition just to aid the future prospects of the Left Wing. There is an astonishing degree of of disingenuous argument on the part of Left Wingers on this point.

3. The bookies aren't always right. For example for much of the 2002-2007 period a FF-Labour Government was the bookies favorite.

The conclusive aspect, which I am glad some posters here have finally publicized is the simmering mutual antipathy which exists within each party towards the other. You can guarantee that an FG-FF Coalition would result in a mass walkout of members followed by a mass desertion by a large portion of voters at the next election.

First Up · 16-02-2016 10:49PM

TripleC wrote:

The conclusive aspect, which I am glad some posters here have finally publicized is the simmering mutual antipathy which exists within each party towards the other. You can guarantee that an FG-FF Coalition would result in a mass walkout of members followed by a mass desertion by a large portion of voters at the next election.

Seeing as FG and FF were on opposite sides in the civil war and that families have been polarised over it ever since, it is a bit rich to talk about "simmering mutual antipathy" as if it was some recent revelation.

If people are prepared to swallow SF/IRA's recent bloody past with the actors still on the stage, the events of almost 100 years ago can surely be put aside when we are talking about peoples' great granparents. I doubt anyone under 60 gives a shoot - and not many older.

The centre ground of both parties would be comfortable enough with each other on many issues. FG are generally more socially conservative, while FF are "greener" in political terms. However on issues like the economy, agriculture, education, health, social welfare and the wider ideologies around the balance between the State and the private sector, the two parties are closer than any others.

A merger may be some way off but a coalition is perfectly feasible. If it drives some FG into exile (or Renua) and some FF into Sinn Fein, so be it. Our politics have been shaped by the past long enough.

Ren2k7 · 17-02-2016 03:50PM

First Up wrote: »

If people are prepared to swallow SF/IRA's

What is this "SF/IRA" you speak of? I've looked up the register of Irish parties and see no such party listed. I wonder if Labour/OIRA and FG/Blueshirt are on the list as well........

First Up · 17-02-2016 04:32PM

Ren2k7 wrote: »

What is this "SF/IRA" you speak of?

Thought you would have been able to find it, seeing as it is all over this thread and several others.

Coillte_Bhoy · 17-02-2016 05:00PM

Ren2k7 wrote: »

What is this "SF/IRA" you speak of? I've looked up the register of Irish parties and see no such party listed. I wonder if Labour/OIRA and FG/Blueshirt are on the list as well........

Are the OIRA and Blueshirts still in existence? Have present members of the FG or Labour leaderships been involved with illegal armies recetnly?

golfball37 · 17-02-2016 05:07PM

Coillte_Bhoy wrote: »

Are the OIRA and Blueshirts still in existence? Have present members of the FG or Labour leaderships been involved with illegal armies recetnly?

3 of the last 5 Labour leaders certainly are not holier than thou in the private army sense.

BOHtox · 17-02-2016 05:29PM

Ren2k7 wrote: »

It's quite enjoyable seeing SF being written off considering how much they've come along in the past few years. Going from minor party in the North to dominant Irish party in the Executive has been extraordinary. SF will too enter government in the South, this much is certain. And the head popping by the D4 elites will be EPIC.

What exactly is your problem with people from Dublin 4? And why are you so concerned with getting one over on them as opposed to voting for the best interests of the country? The idea that everyone from Dublin 4 is a self-righteous snob is a lazy stereotype. A stereotype that I believed myself having worked in town from a young age before getting a new job around Dublin 4.

If you take a single person who earns €100,000, he will pay 40% of that net in tax. He gives €40,000 to the exchequer between PRSI, USC, Income Tax etc.

The same person on €20,000 takes home €18,100. He pays less than €2,000 to the exchequer.

So person A pays 20 times more tax. To paraphrase from The West Wing "I don’t get 20 more votes on election day, the fire department doesn't come to my house 20 times faster, and the water doesn't come out of my faucet 20 times hotter."

This is not propaganda, just cold, hard facts
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gandalf · 17-02-2016 05:39PM

golfball37 wrote: »

3 of the last 5 Labour leaders certainly are not holier than thou in the private army sense.

Compared to Gerry Adams they are feckin saints!

Ren2k7 · 17-02-2016 06:53PM

First Up wrote: »

Thought you would have been able to find it, seeing as it is all over this thread and several others.

There's no such entity called "SF/IRA". Anyone who uses it is a fool.

Coillte_Bhoy wrote: »

Are the OIRA and Blueshirts still in existence? Have present members of the FG or Labour leaderships been involved with illegal armies recetnly?

The OIRA is still in existance and the fascist Blueshirts merged into FG. And a current minister of state is married to a man convicted of murdering another person while he was in the OIRA.

BOHtox wrote: »

What exactly is your problem with people from Dublin 4?

It's not a geographic term. Referring to someone as a "D4 elite" or "Deefer" is just like calling someone a Tory if in Britain or a Teahadist in the US. A Deefer can be from any part of Ireland as refers to someone who is staunchly right wing, typically a FG voter, hates Northerners, hates "Shinners", hates Republicans and often quite of an Anglophile to the point of wanting Ireland to rejoin either the Commonwealth or even the UK itself.

BOHtox wrote: »

And why are you so concerned with getting one over on them as opposed to voting for the best interests of the country?

Your "best interests of the country" are probably quite different from mine.

BOHtox wrote: »

The idea that everyone from Dublin 4 is a self-righteous snob is a lazy stereotype. A stereotype that I believed myself having worked in town from a young age before getting a new job around Dublin 4.

See above.

BOHtox wrote: »

If you take a single person who earns €100,000, he will pay 40% of that net in tax. He gives €40,000 to the exchequer between PRSI, USC, Income Tax etc.

The same person on €20,000 takes home €18,100. He pays less than €2,000 to the exchequer.

So person A pays 20 times more tax. To paraphrase from The West Wing "I don’t get 20 more votes on election day, the fire department doesn't come to my house 20 times faster, and the water doesn't come out of my faucet 20 times hotter."

This is not propaganda, just cold, hard facts

What relevance does any of this have?

Ren2k7 · 17-02-2016 06:55PM

gandalf wrote: »

Compared to Gerry Adams they are feckin saints!

Do you know something about Gerry Adams' past that the rest of us don't know about? If so you should pass on your info to the Gardai. I hear they've been trying to nail Adams on membership of some illegal organisation for some years now but have been unlucky so far.

First Up · 17-02-2016 06:58PM

Ren2k7 wrote:

Do you know something about Gerry Adams' past that the rest of us don't know about? If so you should pass on your info to the Gardai. I hear they've been trying to nail Adams on membership of some illegal organisation for some years now but have been unlucky so far.

Stop being ridiculous.

Ren2k7 · 17-02-2016 07:05PM

First Up wrote: »

Stop being ridiculous.

You too? Wow, the Guards will have Adams banged up by the end of the week if you and Gandalf go and provide the Gardai with information on Adams involvement in "criminality".

Not that defending your community and people is a crime of course.

First Up · 17-02-2016 07:38PM

Ren2k7 wrote:

Not that defending your community and people is a crime of course.

But you still deny a link between SF and IRA?

Quite.

Ren2k7 · 17-02-2016 08:34PM

First Up wrote: »

But you still deny a link between SF and IRA?

Quite.

When have I ever denied a link between SF and the IRA? Do you believe the Irish community were wrong to take up arms to defend themselves from British backed death squads? That's what we in the South did but the Gaelers hypocrites mantra is "do as I say, not as I do".....

IRA "terrorist" and gunrunner who was directing armed operations against Crown Forces in the North right up until his death. Strangely his portrait hangs on the wall of the FG leaders office.

gandalf · 17-02-2016 08:43PM

Lol typical Slab Fein behaviour. Hijacking and derailing the thread.

First Up · 17-02-2016 08:58PM

Ren2k7 wrote:

Do you believe the Irish community were wrong to take up arms to defend themselves from British backed death squads?

So thats what they were doing in Birmingham, Warrington, Guildford, Canary Wharf, Regents Park.....

K-9 · 17-02-2016 10:20PM

Mod:

Er, back on topic please, FF & FG thank you.

irishash · 18-02-2016 11:23AM

I saw it mentioned in one post, but overall there has been very little mention of what is possibly the strongest reason there will not be a FF/FG coalition.

For the past 5 years and before that even, the party line from FG is that FF ruined the country. They had the dinners with the bankers, had the tents at Galway, facilitated the property bubble, so on and on and on……

The election slogan from FG so far this campaign is “Let keep the recovery going” but during the debates it might as well have been “Don’t ever let these feckers in again as they will screw it up all over again. NEVER FORGET!!!”

And so after Friday the 26th, it is more than likely that the 2 biggest parties in the state will once again be FF and FG (or possibly SF and FG). Opinion coming from most commentators is no one party will have a majority and the only possible combination of 2 parties to have a comfortable majority is FF/FG. Lots of people have said this will happen, despite what the parties have said themselves. The bookies think it will happen. Posters on here think it will happen.

But I don’t think it will for this reason. Because if this coalition comes to be, no voter of FG will forgive that decision come the election after this one. The FG vote would collapse and the party would be decimated. FF would survive, perhaps get stronger. I don’t buy the theory that as a junior party they would suffer. SF will be happy no matter what after this election and will have the next 5 years to get a new leader, and really try to get in government, does not matter where FF are during this time.

People talk about the national interest in this forum, but do you think that the average FG voter is voting for a coalition with FF?? Really?? My own opinion is that there will be a second election. No government will be formed after this one. The voters will see that when the chance was there for a FF/FG government and did not happen, they will adjust their vote. Now how that adjustment will happen who knows. Will they switch from independent to FF/FG/SF/LAB or will one party gain the most from a second election? (I think Labour would).

People are voting knowing there will be a coalition, but they are not voting for a FF/FG coalition. Just because one party may have 40 seats and another 50, does not mean people can start shouting on about “they have a mandate. This is what the people want”.

Lastly whatever else people believe about Enda, people don’t think he is stupid. They made a case 5 years ago with certain promises they could not deliver. The biggest promise he has made so far this election is that he will not go into government will FF. He breaks that, his legacy is tainted forever

gandalf · 18-02-2016 11:45AM

irishash wrote: »

Lastly whatever else people believe about Enda, people don’t think he is stupid. They made a case 5 years ago with certain promises they could not deliver. The biggest promise he has made so far this election is that he will not go into government will FF. He breaks that, his legacy is tainted forever

irishash yes it will take an extreme situation to push the two of them together and tbh it may breakdown before they'd reach the term of the government. However if it looks like SF will get into power I think they will both go in together to keep them out. Now don't get me wrong if there is a possibility that they can go in with Labour, Renua, the Social Democrats and tainted Independents like the Healy-Rae(s) and Lowry they will jump at that first but if the only option is a FF/ FG marriage they will both hop into bed with each other quicker than a one night stand from Coppers!

Remember Enda in reality is at the end of his tenure as FG leader and he will be replaced within the term of this coming Government. This may force him to stand down. Michael Martin has been on thin ice for ages now as FF leader and again he could be forced down as leader to facilitate this unholy union. Ironically he is probably at his strongest now since taking over as leader but given his statements he would probably have to go as well.

From my perspective this is the hardest to call election I can remember since I got the vote 28 years ago! I think you are definitely on the ball saying the next Government will not run its full course and we may be facing another GE quite soon after this one (within two years).

First Up · 18-02-2016 11:59AM

irishash wrote: »

I saw it mentioned in one post, but overall there has been very little mention of what is possibly the strongest reason there will not be a FF/FG coalition.

For the past 5 years and before that even, the party line from FG is that FF ruined the country. They had the dinners with the bankers, had the tents at Galway, facilitated the property bubble, so on and on and on……

The election slogan from FG so far this campaign is “Let keep the recovery going” but during the debates it might as well have been “Don’t ever let these feckers in again as they will screw it up all over again. NEVER FORGET!!!”

And so after Friday the 26th, it is more than likely that the 2 biggest parties in the state will once again be FF and FG (or possibly SF and FG). Opinion coming from most commentators is no one party will have a majority and the only possible combination of 2 parties to have a comfortable majority is FF/FG. Lots of people have said this will happen, despite what the parties have said themselves. The bookies think it will happen. Posters on here think it will happen.

But I don’t think it will for this reason. Because if this coalition comes to be, no voter of FG will forgive that decision come the election after this one. The FG vote would collapse and the party would be decimated. FF would survive, perhaps get stronger. I don’t buy the theory that as a junior party they would suffer. SF will be happy no matter what after this election and will have the next 5 years to get a new leader, and really try to get in government, does not matter where FF are during this time.

People talk about the national interest in this forum, but do you think that the average FG voter is voting for a coalition with FF?? Really?? My own opinion is that there will be a second election. No government will be formed after this one. The voters will see that when the chance was there for a FF/FG government and did not happen, they will adjust their vote. Now how that adjustment will happen who knows. Will they switch from independent to FF/FG/SF/LAB or will one party gain the most from a second election? (I think Labour would).

People are voting knowing there will be a coalition, but they are not voting for a FF/FG coalition. Just because one party may have 40 seats and another 50, does not mean people can start shouting on about “they have a mandate. This is what the people want”.

Lastly whatever else people believe about Enda, people don’t think he is stupid. They made a case 5 years ago with certain promises they could not deliver. The biggest promise he has made so far this election is that he will not go into government will FF. He breaks that, his legacy is tainted forever

I think you could be missing a few important angles.

Your hypothesis is based primarily on FG supporters being unhappy with a coalition with FF and deserting the party as a result. Where do you think these votes will go?

There is evidence of considerable fluidity between Labour and SF (essentially working class, less educated and somewhat "anti establishment".) There is fluidity between Labour and FF in working class urban constituencies. There is also fluidity between FF and SF (the green vote and both are anti FG). On the other hand, there is very little evidence of fluidity between FG and any of the above. Of course there are transfers between them in individual constituencies - you will see FG voters transferring to Labour this time. However there is very little risk of FG voters deserting the party and throwing their weight behind another - with the possible exception of bible thumpers supporting Renua who are a bit of a joke.

FG voters may not be voting for a coalition with FF as a first preference but they are primarily voting for stable government. That is evident from the Rainbow Coalition in which they worked with both Labour and Democratic Left. Coalescing with FF is far preferable to letting the achievements of the last five years be squandered by a crowd of populist dunces and partly reformed gangsters. There will for sure be an element in FG (as there is in FF) chained to Civil War divisions but there is more than enough pragmatic and responsible members of both parties to make it happen.

I think it might take a hung Dáil and a second election to get us there but if a FG/FF coalition is the only route to stable government, FG voters will not self-destruct over it.

irishash · 18-02-2016 12:58PM

First Up wrote: »

I think you could be missing a few important angles.

Your hypothesis is based primarily on FG supporters being unhappy with a coalition with FF and deserting the party as a result. Where do you think these votes will go?

There is evidence of considerable fluidity between Labour and SF (essentially working class, less educated and somewhat "anti establishment".) There is fluidity between Labour and FF in working class urban constituencies. There is also fluidity between FF and SF (the green vote and both are anti FG). On the other hand, there is very little evidence of fluidity between FG and any of the above. Of course there are transfers between them in individual constituencies - you will see FG voters transferring to Labour this time. However there is very little risk of FG voters deserting the party and throwing their weight behind another - with the possible exception of bible thumpers supporting Renua who are a bit of a joke.

FG voters may not be voting for a coalition with FF as a first preference but they are primarily voting for stable government. That is evident from the Rainbow Coalition in which they worked with both Labour and Democratic Left. Coalescing with FF is far preferable to letting the achievements of the last five years be squandered by a crowd of populist dunces and partly reformed gangsters. There will for sure be an element in FG (as there is in FF) chained to Civil War divisions but there is more than enough pragmatic and responsible members of both parties to make it happen.

I think it might take a hung Dáil and a second election to get us there but if a FG/FF coalition is the only route to stable government, FG voters will not self-destruct over it.

I see validity in everything you said, and you are right, it is the pragmatic approach, and more than likely if it happens Kenny will swansong off, prob to a euro post, and Martin to backbench obscurity.

But there is also the human element to this. And that element is far from pragmatic. FF saw their popular vote go down by 24.2% at the last election. It appears that the vast majority of these voters went to FG and Labour. The reason for the switch is well known and not disputed – anger at the performance of the last government. Anger is a powerful emotion and can guide a person’s decisions.

If FG went into power with FF after this election, there would be considerable anger amoungst the FG voter base. And, as I believe, that future government lasts about 2-3 years, then those voters would not go back to FG. Your analysis is that there is little fluidity between FG and the other established parties and I agree with you there. But I do not agree with you that they would vote for FG regardless. They would go elsewhere due to the anger. Some would go to Labour. A lot I think would go independent/green, very few would go FF.

I could see a collapse for FG similar to FF in 2011 if that government came to be. The vast majority of people do not believe FF deserve another chance at power so soon. If they got this opportunity due to FG, then all the anger is on FG, not FF.

If there is a hung Dail and I think there will be, second election is called and the status quo maintained, then you could say they have very little choice. And you would be right. And the electorate would have to look at themselves in order to blame somebody. The first election will show them the reality of the situation. They will have a chance to change it. The only section of voters who will be able to change it will be the ones voting SF, Independent (Including AAA, PBP, SOC, Et all), Renua and SD. The voters of FF, FG and LAB will just do same again.

First Up · 18-02-2016 01:56PM

There is no historical evidence of "core" FG voters switching allegiance. I agree they benefitted last time from soft FF support (although less than Labour did) and much of that will go back - and maybe elsewhere. But if given a choice between anger at coalition with FF and chaos, I am pretty confident what FG supporters will do.

Based on probable numbers, a FG/FF government would comfortably see out a five year term and is far more likely to do so than any other permutation.

gandalf · 18-02-2016 01:59PM

I think the core FG supporters would go ape**** if FG allowed SF to get into Government when there was a chance they could have stopped it even if it means having to woo FF.

irishash · 18-02-2016 02:04PM

First Up wrote: »

Based on probable numbers, a FG/FF government would comfortably see out a five year term and is far more likely to do so than any other permutation.

Numbers alone, yes no problem 5 years could be done. However FF are the cutest political opportunists around and the moment they see an advantage (poll numbers up, a bad budget) they would pull the plug and chance it. That is why I think it would not last.

irishash · 18-02-2016 02:07PM

gandalf wrote: »

I think the core FG supporters would go ape**** if FG allowed SF to get into Government when there was a chance they could have stopped it even if it means having to woo FF.

SF's only chance this time around would be with either FF or FG, so i think a second election will happen before the "pragmatic coalition" (trademark pending) as they will call it, will form.

...And Justice · 18-02-2016 02:14PM

irishash wrote: »

SF's only chance this time around would be with either FF or FG, so i think a second election will happen before the "pragmatic coalition" (trademark pending) as they will call it, will form.

Yep, hung dail, SF are going to put FF & FG through the ringer in this election, they will then of course form a government. Or SF&FF will form a government, but Gerry will have to go. Can't see that one happening though.

Fianna Fail & Fianna Gael

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