Fianna Fail & Fianna Gael

gandalf

...And Justice wrote: »

Yep, hung dail, SF are going to put FF & FG through the ringer in this election, they will then of course form a government. Or SF&FF will form a government, but Gerry will have to go. Can't see that one happening though.

Don't see a FF/SF coalition happening either especially if SF are the bigger party. FF would be "Green Partied" then and be decimated at the next election hemorrhaging a lot of support to SF.

Coillte_Bhoy

Ren2k7 wrote: »

The OIRA is still in existance and the fascist Blueshirts merged into FG. And a current minister of state is married to a man convicted of murdering another person while he was in the OIRA.

Let me get this straight, are you seriously comparing a few Labourites past associations with organisation linked to the now defucnt OIRA (over 40 years ago) with Adams, McGuinness, Ferris etc role in the provo campaign? :pac:

As for the blueshirts, ffs it was 80 years ago, if Eoin O'Duffy was FG leader today then you might have a valid point.

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quadrifoglio verde

No fine Gael taoiseach has ever had two successive terms in office
If Kenny can muster the numbers together, he will. Hell have achieved two things that neither cosgrave, Fitzgerald or Briton couldn't
FG as the biggest party and a fg taoiseach for more than two years

About two years into the new dail, hell resign allowing bruton, Fitzgerald, coveney or veradkar to take over the reigns. Harris with an outside shot.
Fine Gael with a new leader that's a lot more likable will pick up seats

Lots of voters out there for fine Gael that they're not getting because in front of the camera, Kenny is weak and toxic
Behind the closed doors of fine Gael hq, it's a different story and that's why he survived 07

Loafing Oaf

gandalf wrote: »

I think the core FG supporters would go ape**** if FG allowed SF to get into Government when there was a chance they could have stopped it even if it means having to woo FF.

Yes I think this is the bottom line as far as most FG people are concerned, and the reason they will ultimately swallow an alliance with the auld enemy. Plus the fact that they will be have significantly more seats mean such an alliance can be sold to them as putting one over on FF.

First Up

irishash wrote:

Numbers alone, yes no problem 5 years could be done. However FF are the cutest political opportunists around and the moment they see an advantage (poll numbers up, a bad budget) they would pull the plug and chance it. That is why I think it would not last.

Unless they had some major issue of difference; I doubt they would pull the plug, at least not until the next election was looming anyway. They would need to be awfully sure their numbers were up for reasons of their own doing and not just for being part of an effective government. They would not be thanked for bringing a government down for such transparently self interest reasons.

There are obvious long term strategic considerations for them aligning with FG but if after two GE's it is still the only serious option, they (and FG) would be under huge pressure to bite the bullet.

irishash

First Up wrote: »

if after two GE's it is still the only serious option, they (and FG) would be under huge pressure to bite the bullet.

I agree and think this will happen. And there would be considerable less anger surronding this, but some anger none the less. But I still think 2 elections at this stage unless 2007 happens again and the government parties get a ballot box boost.

Idbatterim

whatever about the SF past etc, one immediate deal breaker I see is, FG and FF know what damage to the economy Sf proposals for increased taxes on lowish all the way up to high incomes would do. I cant see them being even close to being able to agree on that. Also the issue with capping Ps pay at 100k etc. SF also know what happened to Labour with their voters perceived view of "broken promises" SF if forming coalition wouldnt want to over promise and under deliver... They will be in opposition again, FF and FG would would be at it in bed, long before they would ever let SF in!

Godge

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Yes I think this is the bottom line as far as most FG people are concerned, and the reason they will ultimately swallow an alliance with the auld enemy. Plus the fact that they will be have significantly more seats mean such an alliance can be sold to them as putting one over on FF.

Word on the street is that FG have held money back for a second election.

Dump Kenny on the basis of election failure, put it up to SF and FF to form a government with the AAA and SDs and sit and wait for the inevitable disaster within months before Varadkar/Coveneny leads them back.

Mr.Micro

Godge wrote: »

Word on the street is that FG have held money back for a second election.

Dump Kenny on the basis of election failure, put it up to SF and FF to form a government with the AAA and SDs and sit and wait for the inevitable disaster within months before Varadkar/Coveneny leads them back.

Could well be true. FG have not had a good campaign. I think there is now a possibility that FF will be neck and neck come the results. The Irish electorate love the old days....spend, spend spend and who better that FF to give them that.

quadrifoglio verde

Godge wrote: »

Word on the street is that FG have held money back for a second election.

Dump Kenny on the basis of election failure, put it up to SF and FF to form a government with the AAA and SDs and sit and wait for the inevitable disaster within months before Varadkar/Coveneny leads them back.

If that was the case, Kenny would have walked 6 months ago

Loafing Oaf

First Up wrote: »

There are obvious long term strategic considerations for them aligning with FG but if after two GE's it is still the only serious option, they (and FG) would be under huge pressure to bite the bullet.

I reckon if a government cannot be formed and there is another GE this year, FF and FG will explicitly leave open the option of coalition with each other, even if they tear strips of each other in the campaign as normal.

Brussels Sprout

Paddy Power have this as the favourite to be the next government @ 8/13 but I think a much better bet is FG minority government @ 5/1.

I can't see FF going in as the minority partner in government for a few reasons:

1. If recent history has thought us anything it's that minority partners in coalitions get all of the blame and none of the credit (PDs, Greens & Labour here; Lib Dems in the UK).
2. If they were to do this it would leave Sinn Fein as the largest party in opposition. The fear would be that as the main dissenting voice in the Dáil this would give them a platform to accelerate their impressive growth.
3. Micheal Martin has said he won't do it. If they were to go into coalition with FG after that then he'd be put in a very awkward spot and he may even be forced to resign as party leader (a la Trevor Sargent in 2011). Given that he's been widely touted as the party's major asset in this election that would a bitter pill to swallow for him and the party.

On the other hand I could see FF propping up a minority FG government for a short period on a vote-by-vote basis. Martin has not ruled out doing this. I think people discount it as we've had so many stable governments over the past 25 years. However, the 1980's were a different story. We had 5 general elections in that decade and 3 in the space of 18 months in 1981/82.

5/1 = 16.7% chance of happening. Worth a flutter

Loafing Oaf

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Paddy Power have this as the favourite to be the next government @ 8/13 but I think a much better bet is FG minority government @ 5/1.

I can't see FF going in as the minority partner in government for a few reasons:

1. If recent history has thought us anything it's that minority partners in coalitions get all of the blame and none of the credit (PDs, Greens & Labour here; Lib Dems in the UK).
2. If they were to do this it would leave Sinn Fein as the largest party in opposition. The fear would be that as the main dissenting voice in the Dáil this would give them a platform to accelerate their impressive growth.
3. Micheal Martin has said he won't do it. If they were to go into coalition with FG after that then he'd be put in a very awkward spot and he may even be forced to resign as party leader (a la Trevor Sargent in 2011). Given that he's been widely touted as the party's major asset in this election that would a bitter pill to swallow for him and the party.

On the other hand I could see FF propping up a minority FG government for a short period on a vote-by-vote basis. Martin has not ruled out doing this. I think people discount it as we've had so many stable governments over the past 25 years. However, the 1980's were a different story. We had 5 general elections in that decade and 3 in the space of 18 months in 1981/82.

5/1 = 16.7% chance of happening. Worth a flutter

I got on that at 8/1 the other day. Actually meant to bet on it at 18/1 with Boyles a couple of months ago but never got round.

IMO reason 3 you cite is much the strongest one. I don't really see any case for the 'Tallaght strategy' being more in FF's interests than a proper coalition, except that Martin has ruled the latter out definitively and would destroy his credibility if he went back on his word.

Brussels Sprout

K-9

Martin is looking to extract a high price from FG so by no means a cert yet.