Milk Price- Please read Mod note in post #1

WheatenBriar · 24-01-2016 10:28AM

Things are terrible bad.
Milk price will continue to drop.
It won't rise in the near future.
Lads and Lassie's,we'll all have to face reality and sell up.

whelan2 · 24-01-2016 10:34AM

WheatenBriar wrote: »

Things are terrible bad.
Milk price will continue to drop.
It won't rise in the near future.
Lads and Lassie's,we'll all have to face reality and sell up.

Who knows what's going to happen, this time last year people were saying 20cpl etc . We are still here. I dont bother with the gdt auction results any more as they are unreliable

patsy_mccabe · 24-01-2016 10:45AM

Out of interest, anyone know how much each country in Europe increased supply when the quotas went.
I really think the best thing, from an Irish point of view, would be for oil prices to go back up.

Timmaay · 24-01-2016 10:52AM

patsy_mccabe wrote: »

Out of interest, anyone know how much each country in Europe increased supply when the quotas went.
I really think the best thing, from an Irish point of view, would be for oil prices to go back up.

Grain more so 2bh.

patsy_mccabe · 24-01-2016 11:18AM

Timmaay wrote: »

Grain more so 2bh.

Well, will grain prices not follow oil prices?

Farmer Ed · 24-01-2016 11:51AM

whelan2 wrote: »

Who knows what's going to happen, this time last year people were saying 20cpl etc . We are still here. I dont bother with the gdt auction results any more as they are unreliable

I agree. No Irish product is sold at that auction but it's always used as a stick to beat us with when milk price is being dropped. Also when quoting returns, we usually just get the poor mouth as to what skim ect is returning. We never seem to hear what the more profitable products return.

kowtow · 24-01-2016 12:25PM

It might be a good year in which to read all of the co-ops accounts deeply and try and work out what value Irish milk is actually going out the door at and where the waste is.

If I have a chance in the Spring I might have a crack at it, have been meaning to do it for some time.

One thing I would say is that I don't think the motivation of the co-ops in all of this is particularly sinister, they're by and large trying to make the best of a difficult situation and farmers are a difficult bunch.

But farming is plagued by bad measures brought in for good reasons, and if we can we should try and be wise in advance of the event.

kowtow · 24-01-2016 12:25PM

It might be a good year in which to read all of the co-ops accounts deeply and try and work out what value Irish milk is actually going out the door at and where the waste is.

If I have a chance in the Spring I might have a crack at it, have been meaning to do it for some time.

One thing I would say is that I don't think the motivation of the co-ops in all of this is particularly sinister, they're by and large trying to make the best of a difficult situation and farmers are a difficult bunch.

But farming is plagued by bad measures brought in for good reasons, and if we can we should try and be wise in advance of the event.

White Clover · 24-01-2016 12:26PM

Timmaay wrote: »

Grain more so 2bh.

Don't know where you're buying ration Tim, but where I'm buying it hasn't followed oil price down. Ration costing 150/60 per ton in 2010 is 220/30 per ton at present.
Tbh I don't want it to go any higher.

This correlation between milk, beef, grain and oil is well and truly capsized at present.

frazzledhome · 24-01-2016 12:36PM

It's all doom and gloom on here lately and frankly makes depressing reading.

Milk price is in the tank and inputs are following if Fert market is anything to go by.

Volatility is the new reality and anything that can be done to ease this should be considered. The fixed price schemes are getting some kicking on here yet anyone that's in one is maintaining a better price than those not.

Instead of overthinking these schemes ask what they'll add to MY business and then decide. By the posts I see here from SOME posters, this isn't the place for advice.

At the 2014 Irish Grassland summer tour one of the farms were putting away €250/cow into a volatility fund of their own. I remember it being mentioned here and all the talk was of tax on this money.

This family did this again this year despite price. It's some comfort to have that cushion, they don't have milk in Fixed price but have their own mechanism to deal with cash shortages.

Time to man up now, this is where business' show how well they're run. Doing nothing isn't an option so get off your hole and make it work. Do not listen to the arm chair analysts as they only want to hold you back so they won't get left behind

White Clover · 24-01-2016 12:43PM

frazzledhome wrote: »

It's all doom and gloom on here lately and frankly makes depressing reading.

Milk price is in the tank and inputs are following if Fert market is anything to go by.

Volatility is the new reality and anything that can be done to ease this should be considered. The fixed price schemes are getting some kicking on here yet anyone that's in one is maintaining a better price than those not.

Instead of overthinking these schemes ask what they'll add to MY business and then decide. By the posts I see here from SOME posters, this isn't ye pls e to Coe for advice.

At the 2014 Irish Grassland summer tour one of the farms were putting away €250/cow into a volatility fund of their own. I remember it being mentioned here and all the talk was of tax on this money.

This family did this again this year despite price. It's some comfort to have that cushion, they don't have milk in Fixed price but have their own mechanism to deal with cash shortages.

Time to man up now, this is where business' show how well they're run. Doing nothing isn't an option so get off your hole and make it work. Do not listen to the arm chair analysts as they only want to hold you back so they won't get left behind

You'd make a great captain frazz!

frazzledhome · 24-01-2016 01:00PM

White Clover wrote: »

You'd make a great captain frazz!

I'll take that as a compliment. I really mean what I say and live by it.

I'd be worried for some more inexperienced dairy guys taking advice from here. Some of the stuff is truely awful

Bass Reeves · 24-01-2016 01:21PM

White Clover wrote: »

Don't know where you're buying ration Tim, but where I'm buying it hasn't followed oil price down. Ration costing 150/60 per ton in 2010 is 220/30 per ton at present.
Tbh I don't want it to go any higher.

This correlation between milk, beef, grain and oil is well and truly capsized at present.

Ration and grain price are not the same thing. Cheap grain due to cheap oil allows the feedlots in the US and Europe to churn out milk. Ration prices are a reflection of what the producers consider what the market will bear. At present ration are over 20 euro/ton more expensive than they should be.

Co-op and millers are not keeping a strong margin at present. Lads that use a good bit should be using straights if possible and pricing a mix across 4-5 millers/co-ops. If you are getting a 16%+ ration with good quality ingredients (barley,maize, soya distillers hulls and pulp if fibre is needed) making up all the ration you are doing very well. Boys are paying 250+ for sh!te in bags.

kevthegaff · 24-01-2016 01:29PM

I think that's my biggest issue as I don't have any reserve fund, which may be a ticking time bomb on a desperate year. The Co ops have made their path in relation to low value products and what isnt controllable supply/demand etc So its really up to us to manage our own situations. One thing I find funny is Arrabawn sell % to an independent broker, why are they not going directly to buyers... Also farmers seem to just be too busy to rock the boat in terms of reform and we must take some of the blame for Co op change in recent years..

Milked out · 24-01-2016 08:15PM

https://www.agriland.ie/farming-news/fonterra-offered-just-30-product-global-dairy-trade-2015

WheatenBriar · 24-01-2016 09:08PM

whelan2 wrote: »

Who knows what's going to happen, this time last year people were saying 20cpl etc . We are still here. I dont bother with the gdt auction results any more as they are unreliable

I hate having to explain I was being sarcastic

patsy_mccabe · 24-01-2016 09:28PM

https://www.quora.com/Why-is-milk-roughly-the-price-of-gas-and-tends-to-follow-it

keep going · 24-01-2016 09:41PM

kowtow wrote: »

It might be a good year in which to read all of the co-ops accounts deeply and try and work out what value Irish milk is actually going out the door at and where the waste is.

If I have a chance in the Spring I might have a crack at it, have been meaning to do it for some time.

One thing I would say is that I don't think the motivation of the co-ops in all of this is particularly sinister, they're by and large trying to make the best of a difficult situation and farmers are a difficult bunch.

But farming is plagued by bad measures brought in for good reasons, and if we can we should try and be wise in advance of the event.

i have a feeling there will be accounts near very intensively examined this spring.dont want to sound too negative but high value products dosent nessacerily translate into higher prices for milk.

Farmer Ed · 25-01-2016 05:37AM

keep going wrote: »

i have a feeling there will be accounts near very intensively examined this spring.dont want to sound too negative but high value products dosent nessacerily translate into higher prices for milk.

I guess what we should never forget is the co op will only pay us what is left over after everyone else is paid. As farmers we are at the bottom of the food chain.

I firmly believe the greatest assurance that we have in this country is that at least we still have enough Co ops for them to have to benchmark their performances against each other.

In theory big should mean more efficient but in practice the smaller Co ops are the ones delivering the best results to farmers.

I think if borrowings are not too high then most should be able to weather this storm. But one things for sure, milk is no longer the profitable enterprise it once was. You would have to question the agenda of encouraging people to put themselves at huge personal financial risk?

Milked out · 25-01-2016 06:40PM

https://twitter.com/theglobaldairy/status/691645440333352960

Farmer Ed · 25-01-2016 09:45PM

Milked out wrote: »

https://twitter.com/theglobaldairy/status/691645440333352960

I notice Kerry are selling on it. I wonder is it Irish product?

http://edairymarket.com/en/

Farmer Ed · 26-01-2016 12:58PM

Looks like there is still plenty of money in milk. If this guy only got pocket money for every committee he's a member of, he'd still make more than the average dairy farmer.Looks like he's good at thinking up new ideas for creating more paperwork for dairy farmers also.
He's obviously worth his weight in gold.

http://www.agriland.ie/farming-news/icos-to-get-new-ceo-in-june/

kowtow · 26-01-2016 05:46PM

White Clover wrote: »

You'd make a great captain frazz!

Or a cheerleader?

Damn, I've now got this picture in my mind of Frazz in blonde pigtails and I can't get it out. That will teach me.

freedominacup · 26-01-2016 09:54PM

kowtow wrote: »

Or a cheerleader?

Damn, I've now got this picture in my mind of Frazz in blonde pigtails and I can't get it out. That will teach me.

Thanks for that kt. How do you unimagine stuff.

trixi2011 · 26-01-2016 10:12PM

kowtow wrote: »

Or a cheerleader?

Damn, I've now got this picture in my mind of Frazz in blonde pigtails and I can't get it out. That will teach me.

Tought i was in after hours there for a minute .

atlantic mist · 27-01-2016 07:36PM

glanbia coop 2016 members support package announced 21m for dairy plus 3m from orna nua, works out bout 5k per supplier

ornanua investment in china is interesting, im wondering has the change in name has also brought about a change in company direction, were not the only one supplying ornanua now they are taking on suppliers in china, be interest to see how they manage the low branded business they bought and they are hoping to use this to gain further premium market share for the kerrygold branded products.

There is a risk to it, the supplies need to be as high a standard as we produce as we dont need reputation damage to our most important exported brands, plus what every they produce outside we wouldn't be exporting. Chinese arm may be able to enter russian market:)

Farmer Ed · 27-01-2016 08:30PM

atlantic mist wrote: »

glanbia coop 2016 members support package announced 21m for dairy plus 3m from orna nua, works out bout 5k per supplier

ornanua investment in china is interesting, im wondering has the change in name has also brought about a change in company direction, were not the only one supplying ornanua now they are taking on suppliers in china, be interest to see how they manage the low branded business they bought and they are hoping to use this to gain further premium market share for the kerrygold branded products.

There is a risk to it, the supplies need to be as high a standard as we produce as we dont need reputation damage to our most important exported brands, plus what every they produce outside we wouldn't be exporting. Chinese arm may be able to enter russian market:)

I would love to see the Chinese deal explained a bit better. If I understand it correctly I also think there may be a risk? It seems a bit odd when we are all being sold the idea of quality assurance that our brand could potentially be contaminated by chinese product? Also at a time when the Ornanua return for product is so low it seems strange that they have money to spare for Chinese acquisitions.

kowtow · 27-01-2016 09:02PM

Farmer Ed wrote:

I would love to see the Chinese deal explained a bit better..

As would Ornua I'm sure.

Still, I expect the Chinese will bring everyone up to speed at the appropriate moment.

red bull · 28-01-2016 03:11AM

kevthegaff wrote: »

I think that's my biggest issue as I don't have any reserve fund, which may be a ticking time bomb on a desperate year. The Co ops have made their path in relation to low value products and what isnt controllable supply/demand etc So its really up to us to manage our own situations. One thing I find funny is Arrabawn sell % to an independent broker, why are they not going directly to buyers... Also farmers seem to just be too busy to rock the boat in terms of reform and we must take some of the blame for Co op change in recent years..

What do Arrabawn do ?

Farmer Ed · 28-01-2016 09:21AM

I think what Arabawn seem to have got right is that they have managed to put in place plenty of processing capacity without going on a mad spending spree. As a result they are not faced with large bank repayments on a bad year. Also they have managed to do away with the defined benefit pension and they still sell a far bit of product on the domestic market. This surely helps protect them against being over reliant on world markets and the associated volatility.
They also seem to have a Ceo who seems to have no interest in courting the media, but is Far more concerned about getting on with running the business.

Milk Price- Please read Mod note in post #1

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