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General Elections. The Constituency of Tipperary

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    #392
    laoch na mona
    Registered Users Posts: 2,965 ✭✭✭laoch na mona


    Xenophile wrote: »

    So Mattie is knocking on the door for the fifth seat. My own opinion is that if he was standing for Sinn Fein he would be elected.

    he'd have to agree with Sinn féin policy (or at least accept the whip), and be selected by the local organisation for that to happen


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    #393
    danganabu
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,277 ✭✭✭danganabu


    Spirit of 67 wrote: »
    This is what Dillon put up on his Election Facebook Page " 100/1 in the bookies people money to be made there " :D:D:D .

    What's ''people money'' :D can it be used everywhere or only in Portroe??


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    #394
    Xenophile
    Registered Users Posts: 4,070 ✭✭✭Xenophile


    laoch na mona wrote: »
    he'd have to agree with Sinn féin policy (or at least accept the whip), and be selected by the local organisation for that to happen

    I think the only problem he would have would be the abortion issue, but I would say Sinn Fein will have a free vote on this.

    Now that Mattie is looking at the possibility of being out of work, his independence may not be as important as it was!

    The Forum on Spirituality has been closed for years. Please bring it back, there are lots of Spiritual people in Ireland and elsewhere.



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    #395
    Spirit of 67
    Site Banned Posts: 600 ✭✭✭Spirit of 67


    Xenophile wrote: »
    I think the only problem he would have would be the abortion issue, but I would say Sinn Fein will have a free vote on this.

    Now that Mattie is looking at the possibility of being out of work, his independence may not be as important as it was!

    He was also against Gay Marriage , reckon there would be other issues that wouldn`t see him suited to SF .


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    #396
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Xenophile wrote: »
    I think the only problem he would have would be the abortion issue, but I would say Sinn Fein will have a free vote on this.

    Now that Mattie is looking at the possibility of being out of work, his independence may not be as important as it was!

    Has the bould Mattie thought up a new way of canvassing? Pay someone to drive his van around the County or leave it parked up in a different town every day?


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    #397
    touts
    Registered Users Posts: 6,448 ✭✭✭touts


    Xenophile wrote: »
    Michael Lowry (Ind) 1/50
    Tom Hayes (Fine Gael) 1/7
    Seamus Healy (WUAG) 1/3
    Alan Kelly (Labour) 4/9
    Michael Smith (Fianna Fail) 4/7
    Mattie McGrath (Ind) 8/13
    Noel Coonan (Fine Gael) 13/8
    Jackie Cahill (Fianna Fail) 13/8
    Seamus Morris (Sinn Fein) 5/2
    Siobhan Ambrose (Fianna Fail) 9/1
    Marie Murphy (Fine Gael) 18/1
    Gearoid Fitzgibbon (Green Party) 80/1
    Caroline Hofman (Ind) 100/1
    Michael Dillon (Ind) 100/1


    5 seats and 6 candidates are odds on to win a seat. 2 more are less than 2/1 to win a seat. That shows how unclear the result is. But even then the odds are awful. 1/50 on Lowry. OK he'll probably win but for a man who is in court at the moment on fraud charges anything might emerge so 1/50 is very poor. 2/5 on Smith Jr. I wouldnt fancy him at 5/2.

    The volume on this will be so small anyway that a few bets could skew it. Its like betting on football managers. Someone bets £50 on Martin O'Neill being the next manager of Man U and the next day the headline is "O'Neill's odds slashed in race to replace VanGaal". Likewise send in a couple of party loyalists into Paddy Power to bet €20 on you to win and your odds would be slashed. I'd say most of the money Paddy Power take in on this will be from the candidates themselves trying to manipulate the odds and make themselves appear in the running. I'd say Lowry, Hayes and Smith Jr may have been at it already.


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    #398
    danganabu
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,277 ✭✭✭danganabu


    touts wrote: »
    But even then the odds are awful. 1/50 on Lowry. OK he'll probably win but for a man who is in court at the moment on fraud charges anything might emerge so 1/50 is very poor.

    Lowry has been a TD since 1987 and has topped the poll in every election he has stood in as an Independent, it would be a brave man (or a stupid one) to lay him any bigger than 1/50, its a 5 seat constituency, there is no possible scenario that Lowry doesn't win a seat.


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    #399
    tipptom
    Registered Users Posts: 4,219 ✭✭✭tipptom


    danganabu wrote: »
    Lowry has been a TD since 1987 and has topped the poll in every election he has stood in as an Independent, it would be a brave man (or a stupid one) to lay him any bigger than 1/50, its a 5 seat constituency, there is no possible scenario that Lowry doesn't win a seat.
    You are probably right but do you not think that if this present case went against him that it would have an affect on him?


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    #400
    jem
    Registered Users Posts: 1,030 ✭✭✭jem


    Far from a Lowry Supporter but he will 100% win seat and top poll.
    Likewise Smith topped local election poll by quite a bit cant see him not wining a seat
    I would doubt very much if these odds have been manipulated at all as they are first out and would think based on opinion polls done by paddy power.


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    #401
    danganabu
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,277 ✭✭✭danganabu


    tipptom wrote: »
    [/B] You are probably right but do you not think that if this present case went against him that it would have an affect on him?

    To be honest the more sh*t they throw at him the better he comes out of it, I don't think that any of Lowry's voters are under any illusions to his business affairs, the man delivers for his constituency and that's all they care about.


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    #402
    tipptom
    Registered Users Posts: 4,219 ✭✭✭tipptom


    danganabu wrote: »
    To be honest the more sh*t they throw at him the better he comes out of it, I don't think that any of Lowry's voters are under any illusions to his business affairs, the man delivers for his constituency and that's all they care about.
    That sounds like you think that this is all a big conspiracy against ML?


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    #403
    danganabu
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,277 ✭✭✭danganabu


    tipptom wrote: »
    That sounds like you think that this is all a big conspiracy against ML?

    Not at all, but I do find it funny that not unlike Sinn Fein all these stories, cases, trials, arrests etc. always seem to happen around election time.


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    #404
    Xenophile
    Registered Users Posts: 4,070 ✭✭✭Xenophile


    danganabu wrote: »
    Not at all, but I do find it funny that not unlike Sinn Fein all these stories, cases, trials, arrests etc. always seem to happen around election time.

    Find it funny?

    Next thing the conspiracy theorists will be saying is " That the Irish Government arranged with the Americans to have David Drumm held in gaol until after the election".

    The Forum on Spirituality has been closed for years. Please bring it back, there are lots of Spiritual people in Ireland and elsewhere.



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    #405
    danganabu
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,277 ✭✭✭danganabu


    Xenophile wrote: »
    Find it funny?

    I'm not sure where the confusion comes from?? Yes I find it amusing that the timing of all these stories seems to magically coincide with a General Election, but the funnier element being that it almost always has the exact opposite effect to the desired affect. The presidential election in 2011 seems to be the only time it actually worked, which again is funny in that the President of Ireland has about as much say or power as the janitor in Leinster House.


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    #406
    Xenophile
    Registered Users Posts: 4,070 ✭✭✭Xenophile


    danganabu wrote: »
    funny in that the President of Ireland has about as much say or power as the janitor in Leinster House.

    That's a constitutional issue, as far as I know Sinn Fein have no plans to change that! Correct me if I am wrong about this!

    The Forum on Spirituality has been closed for years. Please bring it back, there are lots of Spiritual people in Ireland and elsewhere.



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    #407
    Xenophile
    Registered Users Posts: 4,070 ✭✭✭Xenophile


    Michael Lowry (Ind) 1/50

    I suppose Michael has enough money to go and place 500k on himself and take 10k tax free profit after a couple of months. It would go some way to paying his election expenses. No bank could compete with this rate of interest.

    The Forum on Spirituality has been closed for years. Please bring it back, there are lots of Spiritual people in Ireland and elsewhere.



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    #408
    danganabu
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,277 ✭✭✭danganabu


    Xenophile wrote: »
    That's a constitutional issue, as far as I know Sinn Fein have no plans to change that! Correct me if I am wrong about this!

    Agree on both points but not sure what the relevance is, I'm merely suggesting that a lot of the accusations and scandals surrounding Sinn Fein seem to surface around election time, there are numerous examples.

    But it has never had the desired affect, in fact quite the opposite, the one example I quoted aside.


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    #409
    golfball37
    Registered Users Posts: 4,579 ✭✭✭golfball37


    Spirit of 67 wrote: »
    This is what Dillon put up on his Election Facebook Page " 100/1 in the bookies people money to be made there " :D:D:D .

    yes, for the bookies


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    #410
    danganabu
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,277 ✭✭✭danganabu


    golfball37 wrote: »
    yes, for the bookies

    I think anyone that actually even attempts to place money on him should automatically by default have their right to vote revoked, permanently!


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    #411
    jem
    Registered Users Posts: 1,030 ✭✭✭jem


    danganabu wrote: »
    I think anyone that actually even attempts to place money on him should automatically by default have their right to vote revoked, permanently!
    wont be voting for him and I feel this statement of yours should include Sinn Fein


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    #412
    danganabu
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,277 ✭✭✭danganabu


    jem wrote: »
    wont be voting for him and I feel this statement of yours should include Sinn Fein

    Cen fáth?

    They are a legitimate party with actual policies and protocols, you may not agree with them, and there is certainly a lot of them I don't agree with myself, but to be comparing them to this lad is way off the mark, the chap wouldn't even know how to spell TD never mind perform as one.


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    #413
    Spirit of 67
    Site Banned Posts: 600 ✭✭✭Spirit of 67


    jem wrote: »
    wont be voting for him and I feel this statement of yours should include Sinn Fein

    Won`t be voting for either but to compare the 2 is ludicrous :rolleyes: !


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    #414
    tipptom
    Registered Users Posts: 4,219 ✭✭✭tipptom


    jem wrote: »
    wont be voting for him and I feel this statement of yours should include Sinn Fein
    Seeing as your telling people who to not vote for who do you suggest under this new system of yours will we have to vote for?


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    #415
    digzy
    Registered Users Posts: 3,049 ✭✭✭digzy


    jem wrote: »
    wont be voting for him and I feel this statement of yours should include Sinn Fein

    At least that eejit hasn't murdered anyone.

    How people vote for sinn fein with all the blood on their hands or those other jack asses whose sole policy is 'i wont pay for my water so let someone else pay for mine along with their own'


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    #416
    danganabu
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,277 ✭✭✭danganabu


    digzy wrote: »
    At least that eejit hasn't murdered anyone.

    How people vote for sinn fein with all the blood on their hands or those other jack asses whose sole policy is 'i wont pay for my water so let someone else pay for mine along with their own'

    What Sinn Fein candidate has been convicted of murder?

    I agree about those water charges clowns!


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    #417
    digzy
    Registered Users Posts: 3,049 ✭✭✭digzy


    danganabu wrote: »
    What Sinn Fein candidate has been convicted of murder?

    I agree about those water charges clowns!

    just cos adams didn't pull the trigger don't be fooling yourself that he wasn't the boss of 'murder inc', who killed more irish people than brits!
    martin ferris is at best an accessory to murder. the guns he was running weren't to shoot pidgeons;)


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    #418
    danganabu
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,277 ✭✭✭danganabu


    digzy wrote: »
    just cos adams didn't pull the trigger don't be fooling yourself that he wasn't the boss of 'murder inc', who killed more irish people than brits!
    martin ferris is at best an accessory to murder. the guns he was running weren't to shoot pidgeons;)

    You seem to be in the know, can you tell me what murders Gerry Adams ordered or what murders exactly that Martin Ferris was an accessory to?

    I'm starting to look like a Sinn Fein apologist here, and for the record I'm nothing of the sort!!


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    #419
    Spirit of 67
    Site Banned Posts: 600 ✭✭✭Spirit of 67


    digzy wrote: »
    At least that eejit hasn't murdered anyone.

    How people vote for sinn fein with all the blood on their hands or those other jack asses whose sole policy is 'i wont pay for my water so let someone else pay for mine along with their own'

    Okay , before this Thread gets derailed into an anti/pro SF debate , I`m going to ask one question and leave it at that . How long does it take for a Political Party to be allowed to move on from its militant past ? Nearly every Party in this State has a militant history . In the 1920s FF TD`s were walking around the Dail with revolvers in their coat pockets and Sean Lemass admitted they were "a slightly constitutional Party" ! It`s 20 years since the PIRA`s ceasefire and I reckon most people believe the Provo`s won`t be back . So can we carry on with a discussion about the Election in Tipp without introducing a Red Herring !


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    #420
    It wasnt me123
    Registered Users Posts: 1,728 ✭✭✭It wasnt me123


    Do we have any idea of the date the election will be held on?


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    #421
    The Lost Sheep
    Registered Users Posts: 14,967 ✭✭✭✭The Lost Sheep


    It wasnt me123 wrote: »
    Do we have any idea of the date the election will be held on?
    It must take place no later than 8 April.
    Easter is March 27th so government will want to be in place for that and everything that surrounds Easter this year...
    It most likely will be sometime next month


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