Storm after Storm...

Samaris · 30-12-2015 05:50PM #1

So, Abigail to Frank since mid-November, and Gertrude possibly coming in tonight. Cork city, remarkably, hasn't flooded, but all the towns around it are in dire straits, along with Galway, Clare, Sligo, and have parts of Carrick-on-Shannon actually been above water at all this winter?

So, how are people getting along with it? There's some amazing (if awful) pictures of Mallow under -seven feet- of water after the river burst its banks and a veritable torrent going down the main street of Graiguenamanagh in Kilkenny.

http://i4.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/article7092543.ece/BINARY/MallowPNG.png

http://i2.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/article7092448.ece/ALTERNATES/s1227b/Graig-2.jpg - Graigenamanagh

Bets on how far through the alphabet we'll get before New Year? Reckon we can fit in Harold (or whatever H is) before the new year's rung in...

Also, for anyone interested in the whole El Nino part of it all;

We currently have a very strong El Nino this year, looking as strong as 1997/8, and in the 3.2 region, stronger. El Nino has very clearly defined impacts on parts of the world, like the US and around the equator, but it's a bit trickier to predict impacts in Europe, as the teleconnections are much weaker. -Generally-, northern Europe is colder and drier, and southern Europe is warmer and wetter.

Here's a picture of classic El Nino conditions;
http://cdn2.vox-cdn.com/assets/4357573/1997_el_nino.gif

There's also a phenomenon called El Nino Modoki, which is a modified El Nino pattern that we're seeing more of in the last decade or so. In a Modoki, that clear streak of warm water extending from the west coast of South America (Peru) is broken up, with a warm patch more centred in the mid-Pacific and colder than average waters against the coasts of Peru and the Gulf of Mexico.

Aaaas so;
http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/modoki/web_modoki.jpg

Look at the Atlantic sector differences though.
Classic El Nino;
Cold water anomalies against the west coast of the US, warmer around Europe.

Modoki:
Cold patch is mid-northern Atlantic and a warm anomaly against the west coast of the US.

Now look at this year;
https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/n8XiN4c9JPTKI9QdzYXEC12CH0FUbPBrbgAccpblJrX_9qXwWEcZH5s_vs73JL__gEhvHRJrx_FTJ4LN6hCKLR7c31f9wb-83bf1gIne_i6ykzFQP2IVS8g9dB7bP0P-2lyaSAAay8fc_fD6

Sorry for the long link!
The Pacific patterns are a classic, strong El Nino ...but the Atlantic patterns are Modoki. Very weird. I'm going to have to root out my research on Modoki impacts on Europe again; I do recall that many of the impacts are almost the reverse of what we'd expect in an El Nino event, but I'm unsure if we'd expect this many storms.

me_irl · 30-12-2015 05:50PM

IT'S FIERCE MILLLLLD!

The Backwards Man · 30-12-2015 05:54PM

Coloured warnings and naming storms, load of balls mostly.

It's just bad weather, always had it, always will.

Samaris · 30-12-2015 05:59PM

Not to this extent, this is actually a very unusual storm system in terms of strength. The North Pole is seeing a heatwave at the High of this system (our bad weather is the Low sweeping by us), and the temperature at the Pole actually reached 2C today. That's something like 45C off normal, and it's only the second time on record that this has ever happened.

Edit: I'm coming around to the storm naming thing, at least it does make it easier to identify which was which.

Abigail - November 12th
Barney - November 16th
Clodagh - November 30th
Desmond - December 4th
Eva - December 24/25th
Frank - December 29th
Gertrude - December 30th? - not sure if it will be classed as a named storm yet.

Captain Chaos · 30-12-2015 06:01PM

The Backwards Man wrote: »

Coloured warnings and naming storms, load of balls mostly.

It's just bad weather, always had it, always will.

Actually no, last winter was very clam, dry and cool. Six storms in 2 months is just crazy.

Lights On · 30-12-2015 06:02PM

And people really expect us to believe all that global warming crap? Nothing warm about these storms.

Samaris · 30-12-2015 06:03PM

Lights On wrote: »

And people really expect us to believe all that global warming crap? Nothing warm about these storms.

...Yeah, I was afraid this would happen. I'm going to refrain from getting into that for now, at least until after Star Wars this evening!

zanador · 30-12-2015 06:05PM

Lights On wrote: »

And people really expect us to believe all that global warming crap? Nothing warm about these storms.

Global warming would result in more monsoon like weather for us. Mild, high winds and rain.

Captain Chaos · 30-12-2015 06:05PM

Lights On wrote: »

And people really expect us to believe all that global warming crap? Nothing warm about these storms.

It's El Nino casuing all this, it's a system that's been around for hundreds of years but climate change effects are making it stronger. It actually is very mild between each of these storms.

Lights On · 30-12-2015 06:06PM

Samaris wrote: »

...Yeah, I was afraid this would happen. I'm going to refrain from getting into that for now, at least until after Star Wars this evening!

Tongue was firmly in my cheek

Enjoy Star Wars though, you'll never guess who they find out Luke's father is!!!

FalconGirl · 30-12-2015 06:07PM

The Backwards Man wrote: »

Coloured warnings and naming storms, load of balls mostly.

It's just bad weather, always had it, always will.

This was a major event. A lot more homes and businesses destroyed. Who knows, maybe lives were saved with the weather warnings?

The Backwards Man · 30-12-2015 06:15PM

FalconGirl wrote: »

This was a major event. A lot more homes and businesses destroyed. Who knows, maybe lives were saved with the weather warnings?

The more homes and businesses there are and the more media there is to report, the more we will hear of them being destroyed.

It used to be 90-100 mph gusts were a big thing, now thanks to the media and the metric system, it's 90-100 kph gusts

kneemos · 30-12-2015 06:16PM

FalconGirl wrote: »

This was a major event. A lot more homes and businesses destroyed. Who knows, maybe lives were saved with the weather warnings?

Wasn't caused by this event,it was the accumulation of weeks of rain.
There was one half decent storm earlier on in the month the rest were depressions that they've taken to naming for some reason.

Mint Sauce · 30-12-2015 06:17PM

The Backwards Man wrote: »

Coloured warnings and naming storms, load of balls mostly.

It's just bad weather, always had it, always will.

Precisely. Is it any worse than any other winter?

NachoBusiness · 30-12-2015 06:18PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zTzh8uhnlqc

RobertKK · 30-12-2015 06:19PM

People understand the colour system, yellow is to be aware, orange to be prepared and red to take action.
Naming storms to make people more aware.
Ity could help save lives, despite that a party of 4 decided to climb Ireland's highest mountain yesterday when a storm was forecast, it ended with the mountain rescue service have to put over 20 people onto the mountain to bring a man to safety who had broken his leg.
Given all the warnings, people like this should be fined heavily for putting the lives of others at risk to save his life.

There has been a lot of devastation over the southern part of the country from the effects of Frank.
Imagine if this was your house:
https://twitter.com/kclr96fm/status/682208648798408704

Gertrude is forecast for New Year's day, but there will be some rain in between. There has been a lot of people who have had their homes and businesses destroyed by flooding over the past number of weeks and the number continues to grow.

Samaris · 30-12-2015 06:20PM

Lights On wrote: »

Tongue was firmly in my cheek Enjoy Star Wars though, you'll never guess who they find out Luke's father is!!!

Haha! Fair enough, I was expecting some comment along those lines!

And my partner has been threatening people about spoilers all month. Thank heavens we'll go see it and he can stop turning off the radio in the car whenever it's mentioned now..

RobertKK · 30-12-2015 06:21PM

The Backwards Man wrote: »

The more homes and businesses there are and the more media there is to report, the more we will hear of them being destroyed.

It used to be 90-100 mph gusts were a big thing, now thanks to the media and the metric system, it's 90-100 kph gusts

That would be a red warning.

kneemos · 30-12-2015 06:25PM

RobertKK wrote: »

That would be a red warning.

Last nights weather was given an orange warning,but still it's called a storm.Would have thought a storm would get the highest rate warning given we don't get many hurricanes.

Eugene Norman · 30-12-2015 06:26PM

kneemos wrote: »

Wasn't caused by this event,it was the accumulation of weeks of rain.
There was one half decent storm earlier on in the month the rest were depressions that they've taken to naming for some reason.

This was a storm in terms of its wind. The other warnings were for accumulations of rain over time. This month looks set to be one of, if not the , wettest since records began.

RobertKK · 30-12-2015 06:26PM

The Backwards Man wrote: »

The more homes and businesses there are and the more media there is to report, the more we will hear of them being destroyed.

It used to be 90-100 mph gusts were a big thing, now thanks to the media and the metric system, it's 90-100 kph gusts

btw here is the latest wind warning issued by Met Eireann in the past hour, as you can see it is a yellow warning for people to be aware.

STATUS YELLOW

Wind Warning for Wexford, Donegal, Galway, Leitrim, Mayo, Sligo, Clare, Cork, Kerry and Waterford
Windy during Thursday, with strong and gusty winds expected, with mean speeds between 50 and 65 km/h. These winds will gust 95 to 110 km/h at times. Winds south to southwest in direction at first, will soon veer southwest to westerly and are likely to be strongest in coastal counties of Connacht and also in Donegal

Issued:Wednesday 30 December 2015 16:56
Valid:Thursday 31 December 2015 07:00 to Thursday 31 December 2015

The Backwards Man · 30-12-2015 06:26PM

RobertKK wrote: »

That would be a red warning.

That would be a very rough day.

There's a yellow warning here at the minute and I hung a couple of gates and had the bedsheets out on the most of the afternoon. Load of balls.

kneemos · 30-12-2015 06:27PM

Eugene Norman wrote: »

This was a storm in terms of its wind. The other warnings were for accumulations of rain over time. This month looks set to be one of, if not the , wettest since records began.

No it wasn't. It got an orange warning?

Eugene Norman · 30-12-2015 06:27PM

kneemos wrote: »

Last nights weather was given an orange warning,but still it's called a storm.Would have thought a storm would get the highest rate warning given we don't get many hurricanes.

Orange means be prepared. That's all.

It's probably working. As far as I know three were no accidents weather related.

harry Bailey esq · 30-12-2015 06:29PM

Never gets too bad here,I live between 150-200 meters from the Irish Sea,on an elevated position.Never had floods or fallen trees,the odd slate might fly off a roof now and then and thats as bad as it gets really.It's always the Atlantic seaboard that bears the brunt.
Eastcoast4lifemuthaf*ckas!

Eugene Norman · 30-12-2015 06:30PM

The Backwards Man wrote: »

That would be a very rough day.

There's a yellow warning here at the minute and I hung a couple of gates and had the bedsheets out on the most of the afternoon. Load of balls.

Yes but your little backwater isn't all of Ireland. Of course they had to warn about the threat of flooding, the amount of rain, and to a lesser extent the wind shear.

As evidenced by the actual weather and flooding caused by Frank those warnings were justified even if it wasn't bad where you were ( it wasn't that bad here in Dublin either).

Samaris · 30-12-2015 06:31PM

Eugene Norman wrote: »

Orange means be prepared. That's all.

It's probably working. As far as I know three were no accidents weather related.

There have been some - a woman and her daughter were drowned when their car went off the road into a flooded field near their home [Storm Desmond]. Tragically, a local farmer brought his tractor to help get the car out, only to find it was his wife and daughter.

Last night, a car was blown off the road and into the Shannon - fortunately there was no-one in it.

Saw a picture of a car stuck under a fallen tree - don't know if it hit it or if the tree came down on it, but doesn't seem anyone was hurt.

kneemos · 30-12-2015 06:31PM

Eugene Norman wrote: »

Orange means be prepared. That's all.

It's probably working. As far as I know three were no accidents weather related.

They're an indication of the severity of weather dictated by expected wind speeds and rainfall.

The Backwards Man · 30-12-2015 06:34PM

Eugene Norman wrote: »

Yes but your little backwater isn't all of Ireland. Of course they had to warn about the threat of flooding, the amount of rain, and to a lesser extent the wind shear.

As evidenced by the actual weather and flooding caused by Frank those warnings were justified even if it wasn't bad where you were ( it wasn't that bad here either).

Aye fair enough, but flood plains will always flood, exposed areas will always bear the full force of the wind, snow is always more likely to accumulate on higher ground. All the yellows, oranges and reds in the world won't change that.

Eugene Norman · 30-12-2015 06:35PM

kneemos wrote: »

They're an indication of the severity of weather dictated by expected wind speeds and rainfall.

And/or an instruction to be prepared/ take action etc.

What's the beef with these warnings – they are clearly justified.

RobertKK · 30-12-2015 06:35PM

kneemos wrote: »

Last nights weather was given an orange warning,but still it's called a storm.Would have thought a storm would get the highest rate warning given we don't get many hurricanes.

If we had got a direct hit from Frank rather than a a side swipe, the winds around it's centre were violent storm force and gusting well above hurricane force level. It would have been a red alert.
We don't get hurricanes as they are tropical storms, but we can get storms with hurricane force 12 sustained winds which are thankfully very rare but it would still be a storm rather than a hurricane as it would lack all the features of a hurricane. So hurricane force winds or gusts is fine to say, but it would be wrong to say a hurricane hit us.

Storm after Storm...

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