Storm after Storm...

Samaris

So, Abigail to Frank since mid-November, and Gertrude possibly coming in tonight. Cork city, remarkably, hasn't flooded, but all the towns around it are in dire straits, along with Galway, Clare, Sligo, and have parts of Carrick-on-Shannon actually been above water at all this winter?

So, how are people getting along with it? There's some amazing (if awful) pictures of Mallow under -seven feet- of water after the river burst its banks and a veritable torrent going down the main street of Graiguenamanagh in Kilkenny.

http://i4.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/article7092543.ece/BINARY/MallowPNG.png

http://i2.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/article7092448.ece/ALTERNATES/s1227b/Graig-2.jpg - Graigenamanagh

Bets on how far through the alphabet we'll get before New Year? Reckon we can fit in Harold (or whatever H is) before the new year's rung in...



Also, for anyone interested in the whole El Nino part of it all;

We currently have a very strong El Nino this year, looking as strong as 1997/8, and in the 3.2 region, stronger. El Nino has very clearly defined impacts on parts of the world, like the US and around the equator, but it's a bit trickier to predict impacts in Europe, as the teleconnections are much weaker. -Generally-, northern Europe is colder and drier, and southern Europe is warmer and wetter.

Here's a picture of classic El Nino conditions;
http://cdn2.vox-cdn.com/assets/4357573/1997_el_nino.gif

There's also a phenomenon called El Nino Modoki, which is a modified El Nino pattern that we're seeing more of in the last decade or so. In a Modoki, that clear streak of warm water extending from the west coast of South America (Peru) is broken up, with a warm patch more centred in the mid-Pacific and colder than average waters against the coasts of Peru and the Gulf of Mexico.

Aaaas so;
http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/modoki/web_modoki.jpg

Look at the Atlantic sector differences though.
Classic El Nino;
Cold water anomalies against the west coast of the US, warmer around Europe.

Modoki:
Cold patch is mid-northern Atlantic and a warm anomaly against the west coast of the US.

Now look at this year;
https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/n8XiN4c9JPTKI9QdzYXEC12CH0FUbPBrbgAccpblJrX_9qXwWEcZH5s_vs73JL__gEhvHRJrx_FTJ4LN6hCKLR7c31f9wb-83bf1gIne_i6ykzFQP2IVS8g9dB7bP0P-2lyaSAAay8fc_fD6

Sorry for the long link!
The Pacific patterns are a classic, strong El Nino ...but the Atlantic patterns are Modoki. Very weird. I'm going to have to root out my research on Modoki impacts on Europe again; I do recall that many of the impacts are almost the reverse of what we'd expect in an El Nino event, but I'm unsure if we'd expect this many storms.

me_irl

IT'S FIERCE MILLLLLD!

The Backwards Man

Coloured warnings and naming storms, load of balls mostly.

It's just bad weather, always had it, always will.

Samaris

Not to this extent, this is actually a very unusual storm system in terms of strength. The North Pole is seeing a heatwave at the High of this system (our bad weather is the Low sweeping by us), and the temperature at the Pole actually reached 2C today. That's something like 45C off normal, and it's only the second time on record that this has ever happened.

Edit: I'm coming around to the storm naming thing, at least it does make it easier to identify which was which.

Abigail - November 12th
Barney - November 16th
Clodagh - November 30th
Desmond - December 4th
Eva - December 24/25th
Frank - December 29th
Gertrude - December 30th? - not sure if it will be classed as a named storm yet.

Captain Chaos

The Backwards Man wrote: »

Coloured warnings and naming storms, load of balls mostly.

It's just bad weather, always had it, always will.

Actually no, last winter was very clam, dry and cool. Six storms in 2 months is just crazy.

Lights On

And people really expect us to believe all that global warming crap? Nothing warm about these storms.

Samaris

Lights On wrote: »

And people really expect us to believe all that global warming crap? Nothing warm about these storms.

...Yeah, I was afraid this would happen. I'm going to refrain from getting into that for now, at least until after Star Wars this evening!

zanador

Lights On wrote: »

And people really expect us to believe all that global warming crap? Nothing warm about these storms.

Global warming would result in more monsoon like weather for us. Mild, high winds and rain.

Captain Chaos

Lights On wrote: »

And people really expect us to believe all that global warming crap? Nothing warm about these storms.

It's El Nino casuing all this, it's a system that's been around for hundreds of years but climate change effects are making it stronger. It actually is very mild between each of these storms.

Lights On

Samaris wrote: »

...Yeah, I was afraid this would happen. I'm going to refrain from getting into that for now, at least until after Star Wars this evening!

Tongue was firmly in my cheek Enjoy Star Wars though, you'll never guess who they find out Luke's father is!!!

FalconGirl

The Backwards Man wrote: »

Coloured warnings and naming storms, load of balls mostly.

It's just bad weather, always had it, always will.

This was a major event. A lot more homes and businesses destroyed. Who knows, maybe lives were saved with the weather warnings?

The Backwards Man

FalconGirl wrote: »

This was a major event. A lot more homes and businesses destroyed. Who knows, maybe lives were saved with the weather warnings?

The more homes and businesses there are and the more media there is to report, the more we will hear of them being destroyed.

It used to be 90-100 mph gusts were a big thing, now thanks to the media and the metric system, it's 90-100 kph gusts

kneemos

FalconGirl wrote: »

This was a major event. A lot more homes and businesses destroyed. Who knows, maybe lives were saved with the weather warnings?

Wasn't caused by this event,it was the accumulation of weeks of rain.
There was one half decent storm earlier on in the month the rest were depressions that they've taken to naming for some reason.

Mint Sauce

The Backwards Man wrote: »

Coloured warnings and naming storms, load of balls mostly.

It's just bad weather, always had it, always will.

Precisely. Is it any worse than any other winter?

NachoBusiness

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zTzh8uhnlqc

RobertKK

People understand the colour system, yellow is to be aware, orange to be prepared and red to take action.
Naming storms to make people more aware.
Ity could help save lives, despite that a party of 4 decided to climb Ireland's highest mountain yesterday when a storm was forecast, it ended with the mountain rescue service have to put over 20 people onto the mountain to bring a man to safety who had broken his leg.
Given all the warnings, people like this should be fined heavily for putting the lives of others at risk to save his life.

There has been a lot of devastation over the southern part of the country from the effects of Frank.
Imagine if this was your house:
https://twitter.com/kclr96fm/status/682208648798408704

Gertrude is forecast for New Year's day, but there will be some rain in between. There has been a lot of people who have had their homes and businesses destroyed by flooding over the past number of weeks and the number continues to grow.

Samaris

Lights On wrote: »

Tongue was firmly in my cheek Enjoy Star Wars though, you'll never guess who they find out Luke's father is!!!

Haha! Fair enough, I was expecting some comment along those lines!

And my partner has been threatening people about spoilers all month. Thank heavens we'll go see it and he can stop turning off the radio in the car whenever it's mentioned now..

RobertKK

The Backwards Man wrote: »

The more homes and businesses there are and the more media there is to report, the more we will hear of them being destroyed.

It used to be 90-100 mph gusts were a big thing, now thanks to the media and the metric system, it's 90-100 kph gusts

That would be a red warning.

kneemos

RobertKK wrote: »

That would be a red warning.

Last nights weather was given an orange warning,but still it's called a storm.Would have thought a storm would get the highest rate warning given we don't get many hurricanes.

Eugene Norman

kneemos wrote: »

Wasn't caused by this event,it was the accumulation of weeks of rain.
There was one half decent storm earlier on in the month the rest were depressions that they've taken to naming for some reason.

This was a storm in terms of its wind. The other warnings were for accumulations of rain over time. This month looks set to be one of, if not the , wettest since records began.

RobertKK

The Backwards Man wrote: »

The more homes and businesses there are and the more media there is to report, the more we will hear of them being destroyed.

It used to be 90-100 mph gusts were a big thing, now thanks to the media and the metric system, it's 90-100 kph gusts

btw here is the latest wind warning issued by Met Eireann in the past hour, as you can see it is a yellow warning for people to be aware.

STATUS YELLOW

Wind Warning for Wexford, Donegal, Galway, Leitrim, Mayo, Sligo, Clare, Cork, Kerry and Waterford
Windy during Thursday, with strong and gusty winds expected, with mean speeds between 50 and 65 km/h. These winds will gust 95 to 110 km/h at times. Winds south to southwest in direction at first, will soon veer southwest to westerly and are likely to be strongest in coastal counties of Connacht and also in Donegal

Issued:Wednesday 30 December 2015 16:56
Valid:Thursday 31 December 2015 07:00 to Thursday 31 December 2015

The Backwards Man

RobertKK wrote: »

That would be a red warning.

That would be a very rough day.

There's a yellow warning here at the minute and I hung a couple of gates and had the bedsheets out on the most of the afternoon. Load of balls.

kneemos

Eugene Norman wrote: »

This was a storm in terms of its wind. The other warnings were for accumulations of rain over time. This month looks set to be one of, if not the , wettest since records began.

No it wasn't. It got an orange warning?

Eugene Norman

kneemos wrote: »

Last nights weather was given an orange warning,but still it's called a storm.Would have thought a storm would get the highest rate warning given we don't get many hurricanes.

Orange means be prepared. That's all.

It's probably working. As far as I know three were no accidents weather related.

harry Bailey esq

Never gets too bad here,I live between 150-200 meters from the Irish Sea,on an elevated position.Never had floods or fallen trees,the odd slate might fly off a roof now and then and thats as bad as it gets really.It's always the Atlantic seaboard that bears the brunt.
Eastcoast4lifemuthaf*ckas!

Eugene Norman

The Backwards Man wrote: »

That would be a very rough day.

There's a yellow warning here at the minute and I hung a couple of gates and had the bedsheets out on the most of the afternoon. Load of balls.

Yes but your little backwater isn't all of Ireland. Of course they had to warn about the threat of flooding, the amount of rain, and to a lesser extent the wind shear.

As evidenced by the actual weather and flooding caused by Frank those warnings were justified even if it wasn't bad where you were ( it wasn't that bad here in Dublin either).

Samaris

Eugene Norman wrote: »

Orange means be prepared. That's all.

It's probably working. As far as I know three were no accidents weather related.

There have been some - a woman and her daughter were drowned when their car went off the road into a flooded field near their home [Storm Desmond]. Tragically, a local farmer brought his tractor to help get the car out, only to find it was his wife and daughter.

Last night, a car was blown off the road and into the Shannon - fortunately there was no-one in it.

Saw a picture of a car stuck under a fallen tree - don't know if it hit it or if the tree came down on it, but doesn't seem anyone was hurt.

kneemos

Eugene Norman wrote: »

Orange means be prepared. That's all.

It's probably working. As far as I know three were no accidents weather related.

They're an indication of the severity of weather dictated by expected wind speeds and rainfall.

The Backwards Man

Eugene Norman wrote: »

Yes but your little backwater isn't all of Ireland. Of course they had to warn about the threat of flooding, the amount of rain, and to a lesser extent the wind shear.

As evidenced by the actual weather and flooding caused by Frank those warnings were justified even if it wasn't bad where you were ( it wasn't that bad here either).

Aye fair enough, but flood plains will always flood, exposed areas will always bear the full force of the wind, snow is always more likely to accumulate on higher ground. All the yellows, oranges and reds in the world won't change that.

Eugene Norman

kneemos wrote: »

They're an indication of the severity of weather dictated by expected wind speeds and rainfall.

And/or an instruction to be prepared/ take action etc.

What's the beef with these warnings – they are clearly justified.

RobertKK

kneemos wrote: »

Last nights weather was given an orange warning,but still it's called a storm.Would have thought a storm would get the highest rate warning given we don't get many hurricanes.

If we had got a direct hit from Frank rather than a a side swipe, the winds around it's centre were violent storm force and gusting well above hurricane force level. It would have been a red alert.
We don't get hurricanes as they are tropical storms, but we can get storms with hurricane force 12 sustained winds which are thankfully very rare but it would still be a storm rather than a hurricane as it would lack all the features of a hurricane. So hurricane force winds or gusts is fine to say, but it would be wrong to say a hurricane hit us.

Junkyard Tom

The Backwards Man wrote: »

Coloured warnings and naming storms, load of balls mostly.

It's just bad weather, always had it, always will.

Close the thread lads. 'The Backwards Man' has spoken.

Baggy Trousers

Problem is, if we keep shouting wolf, will people ignore us if a wolf comes. Last night was not a storm.

Samaris

Baggy Trousers wrote: »

Problem is, if we keep shouting wolf, will people ignore us if a wolf comes. Last night was not a storm.

Maybe not in your area, but check out Mallow, Bandon, Galway, Carrick, Portlaw, Kilkenny, Graiguenamanagh, etcetera. I think you could try telling the people that had to be evacuated from their houses, people seeing their businesses underwater - not to mention anyone that tried to get a bus in Mallow only to see the bus stop under seven foot of water! - that there wasn't a storm last night and you'd get a right tongue-lashing!

The Backwards Man

Eugene Norman wrote: »

And/or an instruction to be prepared/ take action etc.

What's the beef with these warnings – they are clearly justified.

My beef is simple. You can't box a climate like ours into categories, I was looking at the RTE weather last night, and there was a 30kph disparity in the wind forecast for me and for a house a mile up the road.

You should always be prepared for bad weather here, not when the Met tells you to.

RobertKK

Last year for storm Darwin, here in Kilkenny for example was given an orange alert.

When we were in the middle of it, and trees, power lines and bits of roofs and buildings flying through the air, we got an upgrade to red alert and to stay indoors...right when parents were at schools to bring home their children.
Now that was violent and was ranked as a top 5 storm ever recorded for the country, the result of a direct hit.

Samaris

The Backwards Man wrote: »

My beef is simple. You can't box a climate like ours into categories, I was looking at the weather last night, and there was a 30kph disparity in the wind forecast for me and for a house a mile up the road.

You should always be prepared for bad weather here, not when the Met tells you to.

Without the Met, I wonder how you'd know there was a 30kph disparity between you and the house a mile up the road. Stand outside with a weather vane? :pac:

The Backwards Man

Samaris wrote: »

Without the Met, I wonder how you'd know there was a 30kph disparity between you and the house a mile up the road. Stand outside with a weather vane? :pac:

There wasn't one;)

The Raptor

For those who survives, who's going to take us in when the country sinks?

RobertKK

Baggy Trousers wrote: »

Problem is, if we keep shouting wolf, will people ignore us if a wolf comes. Last night was not a storm.

Winds were gusting to 70 to 80mph in some locations.

Samaris

I'm...bewildered. I mean, I get people saying that climate change isn't happening in the face of all available evidence, but I don't get people saying there wasn't a storm last night while a large chunk of the country is underwater and the roof was taken off an apartment block. O.O

RobertKK

The Raptor wrote: »

For those who survives, who's going to take us in when the country sinks?

Well I live on high ground, just need to pass some brown envelopes with money for a bit of rezoning

Azalea

Samaris wrote: »

I'm...bewildered. I mean, I get people saying that climate change isn't happening in the face of all available evidence, but I don't get people saying there wasn't a storm last night while a large chunk of the country is underwater and the roof was taken off an apartment block. O.O

It's called "Being contrarian for the sake of it". Some people get off on it to a bemusing extent.

Lights On

The Raptor wrote: »

For those who survives, who's going to take us in when the country sinks?

The people of Leitrim are eagerly awaiting this to happen. They'll finally get some use out of their webbed feet.

trixychic

I'm in the belief that this is all thanks to the global warming situation (which doesn't necessarily bring warmer weather to everyone).

But to be honest all I am concerned about is the fact that for the last 2 months I have been stuck in doors with a 3 and 6 yr old boys who are bouncing off the walls.

Got to get out today for a bit and it was heaven. Chilly but such a relief.

Hitchens

Samaris wrote: »

I'm...bewildered. I mean, I get people saying that climate change isn't happening in the face of all available evidence, but I don't get people saying there wasn't a storm last night while a large chunk of the country is underwater and the roof was taken off an apartment block. O.O

it's all because of 'thim oul sputniks'

Eugene Norman

Naming the storms is only encouraging them.

Fleawuss

I love the weather forum

The Backwards Man

Samaris wrote: »

but I don't get people saying there wasn't a storm last night while a large chunk of the country is underwater and the roof was taken off an apartment block. O.O

I'm not saying it wasn't a stormy night in places, it obviously was, and it is devastating for those affected, but rivers bursting banks and high tides will always cause flooding, high winds will always cause destruction. It's nothing new or unusual.

Yellow snow warning

Junkyard Tom

The Backwards Man wrote: »

rivers bursting banks and high tides will always cause flooding, high winds will always cause destruction. It's nothing new or unusual.

Jesus man you're on a roll with the triteness and banality this evening. I think people are concerned with the frequency and severity of these events and are troubled about the future implications of man-made climate change.