Winter Weather 2015/16 : See Mod Note Post #1

Gaoth Laidir · 22-12-2015 12:07AM

12Z ECMWF showing 50-kt winds out to sea on Wednesday, with 90 knots at 925 hPa (down to 450 m). We dodged this bullet.

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Meteorite58 · 22-12-2015 12:07AM

A good shot of rain in S Kerry, W Cork and along the S coast by the morning.

Meteorite58 · 22-12-2015 12:20AM

Noisy night out there with wind driven rain here in Ardfert

Currentlyh 10 min avg wind 39 kph, recent gust 62.8 kph

maquiladora · 22-12-2015 12:29AM

There shouldn't be too much change in track now at this point, looks fairly consistent on the models now. Wouldn't expect anything stronger than Orange on the west coast, Yellow elsewhere. The rain will make it a miserable night to be on the roads though.

JCX BXC · 22-12-2015 12:37AM

That southwesterly wind may cause a bit of harm to Dublin Airports operations, but luckily its at late at night so the effect mightn't been seen.

PowerToWait · 22-12-2015 12:59AM

Wilder than expected here in Dublin.

pad199207 · 22-12-2015 01:03AM

Gusting 50-60KMH here in Kildare

Storm 10 · 22-12-2015 03:00AM

Very stormy in Galway where did this come from gusting over 65 mph at the moment

refusetolose · 22-12-2015 03:02AM

wild enough in cork too

Stealthfins · 22-12-2015 04:51AM

The rain is so heavy in North Clare,it woke me up....

ninebeanrows · 22-12-2015 05:00AM

A real deluge on the latest GFS for Xmas Day, but not far off there being a tonne of snow in the north-west hills either.

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Rock Lesnar · 22-12-2015 05:41AM

Crazy Rain again in the NE for most of the night, the grand 4-5 days of generally dry weather we got well and truly over now

Graces7 · 22-12-2015 05:44AM

Wild noisy night up here in the Kerry mountains and heavy rain; not heard it this bad for a long while. Thought this was not going to be this bad tonight,,

Rock Lesnar · 22-12-2015 05:48AM

Here we go again, more heavy rain bashing off the roof and windows.

Rock Lesnar · 22-12-2015 06:31AM

Well the last 40mins rain was just insane, i dread to think what the driveway and lawns look like now

maquiladora · 22-12-2015 08:18AM

0Z HIRLAM is showing 90 km/h sustained winds, storm force, brushing the west coast on Wednesday evening. A lot weaker inland obviously.

Storm 10 · 22-12-2015 11:29AM

Brother works in Galway Harbour and their weather station recorded wind gust of 71.7 knots, which is 82.5 mph where did that storm come from.

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Elmer Blooker · 22-12-2015 11:33AM

Last winter and especially the one before that the general consensus was that the endless succession of Atlantic storms wouldn't cease until the brutal cold released its grip in North America.
It seems now the endless succession of Atlantic depressions won't cease until the brutal heat releases its grip in North America!

(record breaking temps of 20c+ expected over xmas period)

ECM1-168.GIF?22-12

sryanbruen · 22-12-2015 11:50AM

Rock Lesnar wrote: »

Well the last 40mins rain was just insane, i dread to think what the driveway and lawns look like now

What you felt of the rain today was how my area felt of rain on November 18th! Floods in less than 10 minutes with over 15mm of rain. Anyway, up to New Year's Eve at least, it is not looking any different! Still relatively mild, wet, windy and dull.

sryanbruen · 22-12-2015 11:51AM

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

Last winter and especially the one before that the general consensus was that the endless succession of Atlantic storms wouldn't cease until the brutal cold released its grip in North America.
It seems now the endless succession of Atlantic depressions won't cease until the brutal heat releases its grip in North America!
(record breaking temps of 20c+ expected over xmas period)

This chart of the 29th reminds me a lot about the 29th of December 1998

RobertKK · 22-12-2015 11:55AM

Well we are seeing the effects of the El Nino.

We had a La Nina from mid 2007 to near the start of 2009, then another in 2010. Maybe these events influence our winters more than thought?
Looking back to the 1940s, there was a la Nina from 1943 to 1945, then neutral in 1946, followed by the record winter of 1947.
There was a La Nina for the record snow of 1917, and a la nina for 1963.
There seems to be a correlation between a La Nina and /or a neutral phase with much higher chances of a having a colder winter.

With the El Nino, I think it did point to what we are getting.

sryanbruen · 22-12-2015 11:59AM

RobertKK wrote: »

Well we are seeing the effects of the El Nino.

We had a La Nina from mid 2007 to near the start of 2009, then another in 2010. Maybe these events influence our winters more than thought?
Looking back to the 1940s, there was a la Nina from 1943 to 1945, then neutral in 1946, followed by the record winter of 1947.
There was a La Nina for the record snow of 1917, and a la nino for 1963.
There seems to be a correlation between a La Nina and /or a neutral phase with much higher chances of a having a colder winter.

With the El Nino, I think it did point to what we are getting.

La Nina occurred during the Winter of 2000-01 which I recall was very cold here. I think it all depends on the strength of these patterns.

Hooter23 · 22-12-2015 12:49PM

Still showing that vicious storm on the 29th and its right over us on the latest run:eek:

maquiladora · 22-12-2015 01:19PM

STATUS ORANGE

Wind Warning for Donegal, Galway, Leitrim, Mayo, Sligo and Clare
Southerly winds veering southwest of mean speeds of 60 to 65km/h gusting 100 to 110km/h expected, with stronger winds of mean speeds of 65 to 80km/h with gusts of 120km/h at times between 1600 and 2100hrs.
Issued:Tuesday 22 December 2015 12:00
Valid:Wednesday 23 December 2015 13:00 to Wednesday 23 December 2015 23:59

STATUS YELLOW

Wind Warning for Leinster, Cavan, Monaghan, Leitrim, Roscommon, Cork, Kerry, Limerick, Tipperary and Waterford
Southerly winds of mean speeds of 60 to 65km/h gusting 100 to 110km/h expected Wednesday evening and early Wednesday night.
Issued:Tuesday 22 December 2015 12:00
Valid:Wednesday 23 December 2015 13:00 to Wednesday 23 December 2015 23:59

Storm 10 · 22-12-2015 01:21PM

maq should we have a new thread for this storm seeing as its gone orange and could potentially go red.

Comhrá · 22-12-2015 01:32PM

Hooter23 wrote: »

Still showing that vicious storm on the 29th and its right over us on the latest run:eek:

Here it is and it's much closer to us than yesterday's run. Could be a bit of a beast if the model is right:

JCX BXC · 22-12-2015 01:33PM

http://touch.boards.ie/thread/2057539707/1/#post981643

New thread here

snubbleste · 22-12-2015 03:03PM

It was 14.3°C at 0200 in Galway this morning :eek:

Rock Lesnar · 22-12-2015 03:14PM

sryanbruen wrote: »

What you felt of the rain today was how my area felt of rain on November 18th! Floods in less than 10 minutes with over 15mm of rainl.

Oh im well aware of the floods in a short space of time, my driveway has been under about 1.5 feet of water 5 times since November 1st.

Graces7 · 22-12-2015 04:42PM

Heavy hail showers up here now.. startling! South Kerry mountains 400 asl

Winter Weather 2015/16 : See Mod Note Post #1

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