Aussie dollar falling

jank · 11-10-2015 1:06am

gobsh!te wrote: »

The Fed will not be raising rates again....ever:eek:

Ever? Ever is a long time. Of course they will. The odds are they are still expected to raise rates by the end of the year, if not very early next year, baring some sort of global meltdown.

Ill take a wage with you if you want. Rates will be raised in the next 12 months.

gobsh!te · 11-10-2015 4:20am

jank wrote: »

Ever? Ever is a long time. Of course they will. The odds are they are still expected to raise rates by the end of the year, if not very early next year, baring some sort of global meltdown.

Ill take a wage with you if you want. Rates will be raised in the next 12 months.

Happily, the next crisis will be a a US dollar crisis. I mean it is happening already.

I would say that currency will not exist in its current format in the not too distant future.

They are doing a good job on pretending they will raise in the future but in reality its rubbish.

Anyway, interest rates were 20% in 1980. The fact the US can't even take .25% "hike" just shows how messed up it is.

jank · 11-10-2015 9:23am

gobsh!te wrote: »

Happily, the next crisis will be a a US dollar crisis. I mean it is happening already.

I would say that currency will not exist in its current format in the not too distant future.

They are doing a good job on pretending they will raise in the future but in reality its rubbish.

Anyway, interest rates were 20% in 1980. The fact the US can't even take .25% "hike" just shows how messed up it is.

Bookmarked. Say $200 AUD?

gobsh!te · 11-10-2015 10:32am

jank wrote: »

Bookmarked. Say $200 AUD?

Mark it down...11/10/16.

I'll forward you my ANZ details next year

jank · 11-10-2015 11:16am

No prob. To clarify we are talking about the U.S Fed raising their baseline USD rate.
No going back and saying 'oh, thought you meant the euro or AUD'

res ipsa · 12-10-2015 11:44am

lg123 wrote: »

its on quite a push, isn't it. what's driving it?

have some cash sitting idle in CF. thinking of buying some USD and EUR next week but not sure what split. any thoughts?

Rise in commodity prices mostly iron ore.
Turnbull effect.

res ipsa · 12-10-2015 11:46am

res ipsa wrote: »

Rise in commodity prices mostly iron ore.
Turnbull effect.

Also wouldn't buy euro. More QE to come. GBP, USD & YEN are the safer havens although you cant buy yen on CurrencyFair.

catbear · 12-10-2015 12:28pm

res ipsa wrote: »

Rise in commodity prices mostly iron ore.
Turnbull effect.

I doubt Turnbull has anything to do with it, it's all about the commodities which in turn support the entire economy.
The Aus$ depreciation cushioned the Chinese slowdown to the point where even the smallest increase in Chinese demand will give skippy a good bounce. I can't see the recent Aus$ strengthening being the start of a trend but if it were I'd be happy as I'm still pulling money back from oz.

res ipsa · 17-10-2015 10:52am

catbear wrote: »

I doubt Turnbull has anything to do with it, it's all about the commodities which in turn support the entire economy.
The Aus$ depreciation cushioned the Chinese slowdown to the point where even the smallest increase in Chinese demand will give skippy a good bounce. I can't see the recent Aus$ strengthening being the start of a trend but if it were I'd be happy as I'm still pulling money back from oz.

Well a lot of markets is emotion because people are markets, & fear and greed drive currency & stock markets. We have a new prime minister who is a self made millionaire, compared to Pommy Tony who knighted Prince Philip & Chuckle brother Joe Hockey who told us poor people didn't drive.
When a leader is changed there is normally a honeymoon period & this is it so while we are at .73 against the green back when it should be .7 I think there is a Turnbull effect.

Dats_rite · 23-10-2015 8:16am

Aus $ on a bit of a charge the last few day up from .638 to .654 or so today.

Any reason behind this or area they just trying to make my bank holiday weekend a little better?

jank · 23-10-2015 8:44am

More ECB QE on the way. Currency wars are back!

Dats_rite · 23-10-2015 10:05am

So hang off on transferring some of my dollars back to yo yos?

Undertow · 23-10-2015 10:14am

One would think so.

I transferred everything I had back to euro when it was 62.5 as the advice I got was that the only way the dollar is going is down! Now its bounced back up! Truth be told no one really has a clue what way its going to go. Its so volatile!

res ipsa · 23-10-2015 11:17pm

Undertow wrote: »

One would think so.

I transferred everything I had back to euro when it was 62.5 as the advice I got was that the only way the dollar is going is down! Now its bounced back up! Truth be told no one really has a clue what way its going to go. Its so volatile!

Money exchange on Sky business offers reasonable speculation on what is going to happen. It's on Friday afternoons at 18.30.

cnocbui · 24-10-2015 6:10pm

Undertow wrote: »

One would think so.

I transferred everything I had back to euro when it was 62.5 as the advice I got was that the only way the dollar is going is down! Now its bounced back up! Truth be told no one really has a clue what way its going to go. Its so volatile!

The trouble is that almost all such public discussions about the AU$ exchange rate are in reference to the US$. What just happened wasn't so much the AU$ bouncing as it was the € sinking on announcement of more quantitative easing.

Unless there is a miracle in China or the EU, I would say a further decrease in the AU$ vs the US$ is a distinct possibility.

catbear · 03-11-2015 12:32pm

Good rate today, might even get up to €.66c after the RBA rate hold.

gobsh!te · 03-11-2015 12:49pm

cnocbui wrote: »

The trouble is that almost all such public discussions about the AU$ exchange rate are in reference to the US$. What just happened wasn't so much the AU$ bouncing as it was the € sinking on announcement of more quantitative easing.

Unless there is a miracle in China or the EU, I would say a further decrease in the AU$ vs the US$ is a distinct possibility.

I would research more before taking advice from anyone here.

res ipsa · 03-11-2015 10:34pm

Odds of no rate cut in Oz before year end 1.3 with sportsbet.

There is no meeting in January so this probably wont be revisited to February 2016.

CommBank predicting .65 AUD USD within next 6 months.

gobsh!te · 04-11-2015 12:04am

res ipsa wrote: »

Odds of no rate cut in Oz before year end 1.3 with sportsbet.

There is no meeting in January so this probably wont be revisited to February 2016.

CommBank predicting .65 AUD USD within next 6 months.

Anything is possible but the US currency is fcuked in the long run.

I don't see 65 US cents personally. I think the US is in a bad way economically. However in bad times people do flee to the US dollar

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=AUD&to=USD&view=10Y

as in 2008....I think the next crisis will be a dollar crisis.

Why do you care about the USD/AUD?

gobsh!te · 06-11-2015 1:44am

On the USD/AUD rate......and also regarding my bet with Jank

There is a chance of negative interest rates now in the US if necessary....you will not see another rate rise in the US for a long long long time

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/small-biz/e-learning/business/federal-reserve-would-consider-negative-rates-if-economy-soured-janet-yellen/articleshow/49664565.cms

Dats_rite · 12-11-2015 10:17am

On a bit of a charge today and overnight.

Anyone speculate why this is?

seamy_orr · 12-11-2015 12:07pm

Jobs rate data came out at 12pm today, unemployment rate dropped to below 6% for the first time in months, participation rate also up.

Chances of rate cut anytime soon diminished.

Need some good financial news I guess.

Timistry · 12-11-2015 3:11pm

The "experts" / fund managers are hoping for a devaluation of the aus$ in December as they anticipate that the US fed will increase interest rates which will increase the US$ and devalue the Aus$ in comparison. Hope they are wrong!

Its funny how one piece of good news has such a positive effect. Here in WA there were a significant number of jobs lost in the last few months and many more to go soon with Roy Hill, Gorgon, Wheatstone in their final phases. House prices especially the 700K+ ones are in dropping in price rapidly. Always a great economic indicator IMHO. WA kept the country afloat during the GFC and provides huge tax revenues to other states. The mining boom is now over but i hope that the Oil and Gas tax revenues will negate some of these losses in the future and keep the economy relatively stable.

AngryHippie · 12-11-2015 10:47pm

Timistry wrote: »

WA kept the country afloat during the GFC and provides huge tax revenues to other states.

Have you got a source on that one?
I don't believe that is accurate at all.

catbear · 13-11-2015 1:15am

AngryHippie wrote: »

Have you got a source on that one?
I don't believe that is accurate at all.

Just look up gst redistribution for an answer to that one.

AngryHippie · 13-11-2015 3:40am

Around 25% of taxation take at all levels comes from GST.

I get that WA's distribution has dropped drastically in the last few years, but until 2009 it was in the same ball park as the others.

Turning that into

WA kept the country afloat during the GFC

is hyperbole.

catbear · 13-11-2015 12:27pm

AngryHippie wrote: »

Around 25% of taxation take at all levels comes from GST.

I get that WA's distribution has dropped drastically in the last few years, but until 2009 it was in the same ball park as the others.

Turning that into is hyperbole.

It is a bit but answer me this, what would have happened in Australia hadn't the Chinese gone a capital spending programme in november 2008?

Two decades ago exports to China were a low single percentage, now they're around 40%, the bulk of which are hard commodities like coal and iron ore and a good chunk of them came from WA.

To rob a quote...
“Australia is a leveraged time bomb waiting to blow. It is not a CDO, but a CDO squared. All we have in Australia is, at its simplest, a credit bubble built upon a commodity boom dependent for its sustenance on an even greater credit bubble in China.”

lg123 · 14-11-2015 12:43am

forgive my ignorance, CDO?

res ipsa · 14-11-2015 1:23am

lg123 wrote: »

forgive my ignorance, CDO?

Collateralized Debt Obligation. I doubt WA carried OZ through the GFC. There are 9 million ppl between Sydney & Melbourne out of a population of 23million. The resources boom definitely helped but that is not limited to WA.

catbear · 14-11-2015 3:37pm

It is hyperbole to say WA carried the show on it's own but commodities from most states collectively sold to China certainly reversed the fall after 08.

Aussie dollar falling

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