Milk Price- Please read Mod note in post #1

pedigree 6 · 01-09-2015 10:07PM

restive wrote: »

Dairy farmers might find the link below of interest.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MtatFY9rwfQ

Foreign north of Ireland muck.

For the guys attacking the IFA you have some points about them as for protests in UK it was mostly young farmers who were organising themselves and had no support from their version of macra and ifa. Their the ones with the passion and the will to protest and don't want to be the generation that had to sell the farm. We need a farmers union in Ireland that can represent all ages and types of farming in Ireland otherwise you'll be just a lone voice complaining on boards (not that boards.ie is not a good place to complain). Also the younger farmers in the UK were good at using social media something we should learn from. And again explain to the public what is happening in farming, the public here are getting further removed from the reality of farming by the year. Anyway farming rocks.

Pacoa · 01-09-2015 10:27PM

The Chinese are coming.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11506227

keep going · 01-09-2015 10:57PM

Pacoa wrote: »

The Chinese are coming.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11506227

Yes but will the checks bounce

keep going · 01-09-2015 10:58PM

Pacoa wrote: »

The Chinese are coming.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11506227

Yes but will the checks bounce

rangler1 · 02-09-2015 08:03AM

pedigree 6 wrote: »

Foreign north of Ireland muck. For the guys attacking the IFA you have some points about them as for protests in UK it was mostly young farmers who were organising themselves and had no support from their version of macra and ifa. Their the ones with the passion and the will to protest and don't want to be the generation that had to sell the farm. We need a farmers union in Ireland that can represent all ages and types of farming in Ireland otherwise you'll be just a lone voice complaining on boards (not that boards.ie is not a good place to complain). Also the younger farmers in the UK were good at using social media something we should learn from. And again explain to the public what is happening in farming, the public here are getting further removed from the reality of farming by the year. Anyway farming rocks.

Young farmers aren't bothered and are quite happy to sit back and let the older ones do the work so you'd just come back to the IFA as has happened with every other splinter group

pedigree 6 · 02-09-2015 11:08AM

rangler1 wrote: »

Young farmers aren't bothered and are quite happy to sit back and let the older ones do the work so you'd just come back to the IFA as has happened with every other splinter group

Don't get me wrong about I'm not attacking the IFA it's just the perception is there that it's an old boys club feathering their own nests. We both agree that the IFA needs new blood every year. How you can attract young farmers every year is the problem, for every older farmer in the IFA there's usually a young son or daughter at home doing the work. It's getting the happy medium that's crucial.

rangler1 · 02-09-2015 11:23AM

pedigree 6 wrote: »

Don't get me wrong about I'm not attacking the IFA it's just the perception is there that it's an old boys club feathering their own nests. We both agree that the IFA needs new blood every year. How you can attract young farmers every year is the problem, for every older farmer in the IFA there's usually a young son or daughter at home doing the work. It's getting the happy medium that's crucial.

It's never going to change if the people who want it to change don't take up the positions, they'll just have to get off their a...s. simple,
Yes I agree to change and our co chairman is 30 now but there's no one from his age group supporting him, so how does he drive on the issues that effect him,

alps · 02-09-2015 11:36AM

pedigree 6 wrote: »

Don't get me wrong about I'm not attacking the IFA it's just the perception is there that it's an old boys club feathering their own nests. We both agree that the IFA needs new blood every year. How you can attract young farmers every year is the problem, for every older farmer in the IFA there's usually a young son or daughter at home doing the work. It's getting the happy medium that's crucial.

There no nest to feather here.....people with drive determination and ability get themselves into leadership positions. They have the capacity to do the very same in their life outside of IFA, and some go and do that.
Not sure about the top job, but I can tell you that there is no renumeration whatsoever for the voluntary officers and members of the IFA. People take their turn at the wheel and give their all for that period of time, and it does cost. The aged perception given at some of the protests comes from the fact that the farm operators (unless you live in a leinster county) are seldom in a position to leave the farm for a day, and are lucky that they have a parent that can represent them.
Monday will see 50/60 members head for Brussels to add to the numbers. Out of Dublin airport 6.30am, get on a coach in Brussels, dropped on a street and stand for 4/5 hours before getting on the bus and back on the evening flight yo Dublin.......no feathers...no nest
Protests are managed for the press. The photographs are set up, the speeches are prerehearsed and the preferred soundbites sent in press releases. Last Mondays protest was such an event to give backing to our Minister and backing to the rest of the European groups for next Monday. While you might question your need to be at such rallies, it's the credibility factor that farmers came from all over Ireland to protest that's important.
IFA organise these protests well. It happens on time, in a confined street area that causes no traffic congestion, the pictures of spilling grain are dramatic but menaged (every grain last Monday was back in the trailer within 5 mins of the protest, rubbish collected and street cleaned and a maximum of 6 Gardai required for the 2 hours.
The organisation does take notice of and can be driven in a direction from the ground up. This is why it is important for members of all ages to take part and make their views be known. Of cousse the needs of a new entrant are different from a person near retiring, but without being inside the tent pissjng out rather than outside the tent pissjng in, what's important to you will not be heard. You won't get everything in this world that you want. ..but you will get some..

kevthegaff · 02-09-2015 12:12PM

Will the latest auctions hold price for august milk??

whelan2 · 02-09-2015 12:44PM

rangler1 wrote: »

It's never going to change if the people who want it to change don't take up the positions, they'll just have to get off their a...s. simple,
Yes I agree to change and our co chairman is 30 now but there's no one from his age group supporting him, so how does he drive on the issues that effect him,

The young people that have the drive to change things are too busy with work/ family life to change things. Many have off farm jobs alot has changed in the last few years. So most people spare time is taken up and meetings& protests take a back seat. Around here we have football training etc 4 nights of the week and matches on saturday and sunday

alps · 02-09-2015 12:50PM

whelan2 wrote: »

The young people that have the drive to change things are too busy with work/ family life to change things. Many have off farm jobs alot has changed in the last few years. So most people spare time is taken up and meetings& protests take a back seat. Around here we have football training etc 4 nights of the week and matches on saturday and sunday

I agree wheelan2, but as you know from the football training, if you are missing and someone else is proving his/her worth.....they get the place. ..that's the way it works. I understand busy....but outside the farm gate effects your business too...people need to make time for that.

rangler1 · 02-09-2015 01:10PM

whelan2 wrote: »

The young people that have the drive to change things are too busy with work/ family life to change things. Many have off farm jobs alot has changed in the last few years. So most people spare time is taken up and meetings& protests take a back seat. Around here we have football training etc 4 nights of the week and matches on saturday and sunday

That's your business that takes a back seat. plenty of national officers could give the same excuse, families, football, etc,. Don't knock the people that are there if you're not prepared to take the reins yourself

kowtow · 02-09-2015 02:20PM

There is, in my opinion, far too great a reliance in this country on expecting the Government (or to a lesser extent, the banks, or Teagasc, or the co-ops, or the IFA) to lead the way.

No Government in history that I can think of has ever "created" a world beating product, or indeed sold a product to it's maximum potential. Public bodies simply don't have mental or organisational makeup to do it - and nor should they. Just ask yourself whether you'd want to own a car that Bord Bia (or it's motoring equivalent) designed, or wear a perfume created and conceived by the Civil Service?

Of course there is a place for all these organisations in political negotiation, in standards development (for the average farm), and in research - and the Irish ones are pretty good at that in the round, but that is as far as it goes.

The idea that the IFA as a "union" for farmers that can somehow secure better incomes in a global commodity market is outdated. I'd rather hope that youngsters committed to dairy farming will be spending their time figuring out how run farms which create & produce the best products in the world, and finding & engaging with customers that share their values, rather than waving placards around demanding a fairer deal.

whelan2 · 02-09-2015 02:35PM

rangler1 wrote: »

That's your business that takes a back seat. plenty of national officers could give the same excuse, families, football, etc,. Don't knock the people that are there if you're not prepared to take the reins yourself

I didnt knock anyone. Just giving my opinion. Also as you are aware I was offered a position on the farm family committee which put me in my place that my opinion on farming matters doesnt matter and I should stay at home. Edited to say Iam not knocking the farm family commitee of the ifa. Any way back to milk price.....

Milked out · 02-09-2015 02:56PM

kowtow wrote: »

There is, in my opinion, far too great a reliance in this country on expecting the Government (or to a lesser extent, the banks, or Teagasc, or the co-ops, or the IFA) to lead the way.

No Government in history that I can think of has ever "created" a world beating product, or indeed sold a product to it's maximum potential. Public bodies simply don't have mental or organisational makeup to do it - and nor should they. Just ask yourself whether you'd want to own a car that Bord Bia (or it's motoring equivalent) designed, or wear a perfume created and conceived by the Civil Service?

Of course there is a place for all these organisations in political negotiation, in standards development (for the average farm), and in research - and the Irish ones are pretty good at that in the round, but that is as far as it goes.

The idea that the IFA as a "union" for farmers that can somehow secure better incomes in a global commodity market is outdated. I'd rather hope that youngsters committed to dairy farming will be spending their time figuring out how run farms which create & produce the best products in the world, and finding & engaging with customers that share their values, rather than waving placards around demanding a fairer deal.

How do u suggest the industry does this bearing in mind the domestic market is too small?. You are looking for people in other countries to pick our grass" fed dairy products ahead of other countries and their own countries? We can say our standards are better than other countries, but not in the EU bar cows being outdoors more, and better regulated than US and nz/ aus and south America. It's essentially cheese butter and powder products such as baby formula and sports nutrition aside. Cheese and butter We do a good bit of but local cheeses in other countries will be hard to beat while irish butter seems to perform well. In sports nutrition and protein the majority of end users look for the cheapest and or best quality as opposed to where they cow was raised and fed. Infant formula we supposedly produce 10% of world supply but it's thru Danone or Abbot. Would it have been worth it if the IDB bought the Pfizer infant formula division( or was it just the limerick plant for sale?) ? Maybe but it would have been putting a lot of our eggs in one basket as well have been too much financially to take on?
Another issue with exporting niche products or products that claim to be from our better quality milk is that the type of people that will buy these products are likely to be types thst may consider air miles and all that as well. Obviously r and d will be required to find more products and routes to market but may not solve a lot of issues with volatility

alps · 02-09-2015 03:04PM

Milk price....still in for a drop this month I reckon. As the biggest coop states it has subsidised milk price for a few months now (using who's money) they will use the sentiment or expectation of a price rise in the future to take a bit more back now. If they could make you believe the price will start to rise say next May, then you would sit happier taking cuts till then.
This may be the rebound in milk fortunes..it may not.
Some would suggest that Clinton needs to get elected before the Russian sit will sort, we also have UK elections and then a UK vote on EU membership..so lots of variables to keep in yhe mix for some time.
So my prediction...1 more price drop, holding for winter months with increase for April's milk.....

kowtow · 02-09-2015 03:33PM

Milked out wrote: »

How do u suggest the industry does this bearing in mind the domestic market is too small?. You are looking for people in other countries to pick our grass" fed dairy products ahead of other countries and their own countries? We can say our standards are better than other countries, but not in the EU bar cows being outdoors more, and better regulated than US and nz/ aus and south America. It's essentially cheese butter and powder products such as baby formula and sports nutrition aside. Cheese and butter We do a good bit of but local cheeses in other countries will be hard to beat while irish butter seems to perform well. In sports nutrition and protein the majority of end users look for the cheapest and or best quality as opposed to where they cow was raised and fed. Infant formula we supposedly produce 10% of world supply but it's thru Danone or Abbot. Would it have been worth it if the IDB bought the Pfizer infant formula division( or was it just the limerick plant for sale?) ? Maybe but it would have been putting a lot of our eggs in one basket as well have been too much financially to take on?
Another issue with exporting niche products or products that claim to be from our better quality milk is that the type of people that will buy these products are likely to be types thst may consider air miles and all that as well. Obviously r and d will be required to find more products and routes to market but may not solve a lot of issues with volatility

All quite true, and niche high value products won't get rid of commodity markets. They will, however, given sufficient time, help to shift the balance up the value chain and provide a much better potential future for family farms.

I lived in the Swiss mountains for several years before returning here; family farms there have been making & exporting really high quality dairy products for centuries. Farmers milk 15-25 cows on the whole, and enjoy a good standard of living (even in a village where a cup of coffee can cost €10, private health insurance is compulsory etc. etc.). Equivalent milk price is 60-80c at the moment I think, with additional premiums where the family make cheese themselves.

I've been trying to pin down a Swiss export figure for dairy and I think you'll find it would put a fairy useful high value dent in our production. As consumers they are not much bigger than us population wise.

Not a silver bullet, but maybe a good example of some of the things we should be trying to get into the mix at farm level rather than relying on the public sector to tell us what to do.

Blackgrass · 02-09-2015 03:36PM

alps wrote: »

Milk price....still in for a drop this month I reckon. As the biggest coop states it has subsidised milk price for a few months now (using who's money) they will use the sentiment or expectation of a price rise in the future to take a bit more back now. If they could make you believe the price will start to rise say next May, then you would sit happier taking cuts till then.
This may be the rebound in milk fortunes..it may not.
Some would suggest that Clinton needs to get elected before the Russian sit will sort, we also have UK elections and then a UK vote on EU membership..so lots of variables to keep in yhe mix for some time.
So my prediction...1 more price drop, holding for winter months with increase for April's milk.....

UK elections over Tories have a big majority(most reasonably farmer esc). More worried about the Igrant crisis etc than farming but TB situation finally on a vague path to being sorted

Dawggone · 02-09-2015 06:59PM

kowtow wrote: »

All quite true, and niche high value products won't get rid of commodity markets. They will, however, given sufficient time, help to shift the balance up the value chain and provide a much better potential future for family farms.

I lived in the Swiss mountains for several years before returning here; family farms there have been making & exporting really high quality dairy products for centuries. Farmers milk 15-25 cows on the whole, and enjoy a good standard of living (even in a village where a cup of coffee can cost €10, private health insurance is compulsory etc. etc.). Equivalent milk price is 60-80c at the moment I think, with additional premiums where the family make cheese themselves.

I've been trying to pin down a Swiss export figure for dairy and I think you'll find it would put a fairy useful high value dent in our production. As consumers they are not much bigger than us population wise.

Not a silver bullet, but maybe a good example of some of the things we should be trying to get into the mix at farm level rather than relying on the public sector to tell us what to do.

Is the Swiss milk production/market not protected?
I always thought that it was either supported or protected.

kowtow · 02-09-2015 10:44PM

Dawggone wrote:

Is the Swiss milk production/market not protected? I always thought that it was either supported or protected.

Yup

Although both are being deregulated away.

They've been huge exporters of quality product despite tariff barriers

RightTurnClyde · 03-09-2015 08:17PM

Anyone read P32 of the IFJ today.
Fairly hairy reading, but hard to pick too many holes in what it says. Fun times ahead for a few years it appears.

Dawggone · 03-09-2015 08:30PM

RightTurnClyde wrote: »

Anyone read P32 of the IFJ today.
Fairly hairy reading, but hard to pick too many holes in what it says. Fun times ahead for a few years it appears.

Elaborate for us.

Talk of downward pressure on commodities etc?

RightTurnClyde · 03-09-2015 08:54PM

Dawggone wrote: »

Elaborate for us.

Talk of downward pressure on commodities etc?

With all your money, couldn't you go out and buy the paper.

- milk price cycles will now be different to what we have seen before
-dairy products are luxury products in emerging markets...ahem China
- taking lots of factors into account, soya beans at 500€ sets WMP at €500
- milk at 39c was relative to oil at $110. Now oil is at $40 with no reason to rise
-for last 20 years WMP mirrors oil price
- because of consumption within Europe a 1% increase in production in Europe = 10% increase in NZ. They are/were predicting a 5%+ increase in Europe
- that 5% increase is the same as 30%more milk traded globally
-US farmers can insure margin over feed of 15c/l for 2c/l. They're not pulling back any time soon
-long term price for Irish farmers 30c, moving between 25 & 35

tanko · 03-09-2015 09:13PM

Dawggone wrote: »

Elaborate for us.

Talk of downward pressure on commodities etc?

It asks are low dairy prices here to stay?
US production is likely to remain strong due to margin protection changes.
End of quotas in EU means there is nothing to prevent oversupply when prices are high.
Increased demand from China helped drive the price surge over the last decade.

Dairy products are a luxury product, their price is dependant on the wealth of importing nations. Although the world population is growing and people have to eat, they don't have to eat dairy.
For its nutritional component, whole milk powder has been overpriced.
The basic fundamentals governing dairy commodities have changed and we are in the throes of a long term structural change that will influence the supply side of the equation and one which we ignore at our peril.

For irish farmers, long time milk price is likely to sit close to €0.30 with peaks of 35 and troughs closer to 25 (ignoring shoulder payments).
Key messages haven't changed, produce milk cheaply and pay down debt and invest wisely in upswings.
Edit, need to learn to type faster.

kowtow · 03-09-2015 09:25PM

RightTurnClyde wrote: »

Anyone read P32 of the IFJ today.
Fairly hairy reading, but hard to pick too many holes in what it says. Fun times ahead for a few years it appears.

Good analysis I thought. Important understanding of marginal production in liquid consuming countries driving commodity prices.

RightTurnClyde · 03-09-2015 09:43PM

kowtow wrote: »

Good analysis I thought. Important understanding of marginal production in liquid consuming countries driving commodity prices.

I was wondering what you'd think of it.

Blackgrass · 03-09-2015 10:10PM

Any of the oldies here remember the weather of 97/98?
Massive El Niño event due will have an effect on grain markets - affect U.S. grain-milk balance but how much would cheap oil effect. Depends if the 'funds' are a little spoked on carry over ratio

kowtow · 04-09-2015 09:24AM

RightTurnClyde wrote: »

I was wondering what you'd think of it.

I think the most important message in it is that the period from 2006/7 through to 2015 has been one of extreme dislocation in commodity prices. All kinds of factors have been at play here - money printing, safe haven demand (for all that confected money), negative interest rates, "peak oil" and the subsequent rise of shale, the Western Bust of 2008/9 and the Chinese "boom" since.... all of these factors are related of course but trying to unpick cause & effect among them is a bit of an academic exercise.

What is beyond dispute is that pricing in those years, and the accompanying volatility, has been extreme in the context of historical commodity pricing. That's why using those years as the basis for a business model is fraught with risk, at least if the business depends on a level of pricing which was achieved during those years.

I am not sure that his emphasis on the US margin protection programme is justified - I think the programme is interesting, but I see it as nothing more than a market insurance policy (in other words a hedge using options on class III milk futures straddled against options on soy / grain).. I could be completely wrong here but I am not sure the US is providing any true subsidy, rather administering a scheme hedged in the market which would be quite possible to replicate anywhere. If I'm correct the price of margin protection at a given time & price would itself be a useful forward looking indicator of the market for milk.

One point he makes very well and much more concisely than I have managed to do here is the following:

Arguably the most significant change is that the largest dairy producer in the world, the EU, is no longer constrained by quotas. This means quotas will no longer prevent an over-supply of milk when commodity prices are high.

This comes with a complication for export nations such as Ireland. Without a tiered pricing system for domestic and export milk in Europe, as is in place in the US, for example, domestic consumption within Europe inflates the price of milk received by the farmer during commodity market downturns.

Essentially, the danger to Ireland comes from the other nations of Europe being able to produce that "little bit more" over their already profitable liquid milk, and dump it as powder in what is our primary - almost our only - market place. In this scenario other European producers are in fact more resilient than we are - because the profitable liquid portion of their milk is sold at a higher price (as is happening in the UK now) giving them a higher price overall, whereas the majority of our milk is driven by the surplus powder price.

kowtow · 04-09-2015 09:39AM

This weeks journal is unusually forthcoming on milk pricing. Perhaps they have been reading this thread??

Don't know how well informed he is, but James Campbell appears to offer an answer to our question posed a page or two back.

Commodity traders are unsure of how much product is being put into store in NZ. It is known that Fonterra has been making every effort to sell product directly to customers around the world to reduce the tonnages offered on the GDT.

These sales have been at prices below the latest GDT averages.

http://www.farmersjournal.ie/supply-down-and-prices-up-at-gdt-auction-188855/

rangler1 · 04-09-2015 09:50AM

kowtow wrote: »

This weeks journal is unusually forthcoming on milk pricing. Perhaps they have been reading this thread??

Don't know how well informed he is, but James Campbell appears to offer an answer to our question posed a page or two back.

http://www.farmersjournal.ie/supply-down-and-prices-up-at-gdt-auction-188855/

Surely that's going to come home to roost too, surely the buyers are going to source that stored product and buy it instead of bidding at the auction

Milk Price- Please read Mod note in post #1

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