beef price tracker

Cassidy2 · 11-08-2015 11:13PM

CloughCasey1 wrote: »

We'll see what the bounce back is like before we get into humble pie territory!

Yes there will be a bounce but it will be September

Willfarman · 11-08-2015 11:14PM

CloughCasey1 wrote: »

We'll see what the bounce back is like before we get into humble pie territory!

They have to lift 25 cent to be where they were and more to be an actual rise.

Cassidy2 · 11-08-2015 11:19PM

Willfarman wrote: »

They have to lift 25 cent to be where they were and more to be an actual rise.

Cannot see it happening.can you

Willfarman · 11-08-2015 11:26PM

Cassidy2 wrote: »

Cannot see it happening.can you

It won't happen until mid November at the earliest.

Farmer Pudsey · 12-08-2015 12:00AM

Willfarman wrote: »

It won't happen until mid November at the earliest.

It is all about numbers now. Last two weeks 500 more cattle killed than same period last year. Last week there was a bank holiday but kill still hit 28K+. This can be read two way either kill very strong or processors need a kill near 30K/week. The numbers of the kill being stronger than last year may seem small however what is happening is what ever shortfall of cattle is being squeezed into a smaller number of weeks.

If the numbers are right there is a drop of 60K between here and Christmas. That may be condensed into a smaller period which may mean that the 60K cattle shortfall could fall into a 10-12 week period. It is unlikly that the kill will fall sharply before early September but a spell of dry warm weather could change all that.

It should also be remembered that it is in some farmers and processors interest to spread the panic and panic the store trade as well. These lads may be anxious to buy cattle after selling underage early in the year. The processors want to fill feedlots of cheap stores for Christmas and the New Year The mystical 25c is gone it is unlikly the processors will knock cattle further as supplies may dry up and the chance of a rebound are higher as farmers may start to hold if prices fall further, Cattle are still putting on cheap weight, Cattle at FS 3 and better are converting at 60%+ even Friesians as they lay down flesh instead of bone, skin and gut. Cattle will pound on flesh if the autumn is anyway good.

The other thing is this idea that 4.1/kg is a great price for this time of year is relative. I got a base of 4.2/kg in late October two years ago. The big thing is when numbers fall bargin hard at prices well above the previous price.

Duke92 · 12-08-2015 05:12AM

Have meat factories got the ifa in there pockets in there pockets now to us don't hear a word out of them

epfff · 12-08-2015 07:20AM

Duke92 wrote: »

Have meat factories got the ifa in there pockets in there pockets now to us don't hear a word out of them

Have the farmers any brains
Running wild all summer like if cattle were never to be seen again at a mart
Then a squib of rain/I didn't know they were coming 30 months and throw them at factories

Willfarman · 12-08-2015 09:04AM

4.10 is a very good price for this time of year. With no horse meat scandal or the like. Cattle were 4.35 a month ago minus 4.10 is 25 cent. Nothing mystical there Pudsey?

I never see sense in holding back fit cattle. If it gives You the notion you are cleverer than other farmers such as me well that's your prerogative.

Cavanjack · 12-08-2015 12:19PM

epfff wrote: »

Have the farmers any brains
Running wild all summer like if cattle were never to be seen again at a mart
Then a squib of rain/I didn't know they were coming 30 months and throw them at factories

Yup and the same lads that couldn't get rid of bulls lad year were the lads paying the big money this year for cattle.

Farmer Pudsey · 12-08-2015 02:47PM

Willfarman wrote: »

4.10 is a very good price for this time of year. With no horse meat scandal or the like. Cattle were 4.35 a month ago minus 4.10 is 25 cent. Nothing mystical there Pudsey?

I never see sense in holding back fit cattle. If it gives You the notion you are cleverer than other farmers such as me well that's your prerogative.

What I ment by mytical is that this price was only available for 10-14 days. As well the Big 3 in general did not pay it to local small to medium sized suppliers. Locally 4.3 was the best available and that only for the end of one week. In general 4.25 was the best got by most local suppliers around me. So locally the drop has ben about 15c/kg or 50/head.

I sdo not think I am any cleaverer than anyone else however beef farmers tend not to use all data at there disposal. Cattle numbers to beef farmers is a smaller version of grass measuring to dairy farmers. If I was a store man I be slow to buy 2015 yearling next spring and unless 2016 calves were well back in price I be letting them there as well. I only fill minimum numbers to satify what ever schemes I was in.

What is happening at the moment IMO ( and I may be wrong) is processors are trying to drop the store price to allow finishers to buy these store at a cheaper price than at present. Finishers that are on contract are at present bargaining for the price next Christmass/New Year and beyond. At present store prices they need a base of 4.5 and higher to stock sheds. These finishers ( to a certain extent) will be competeing with grass finishers like me for cattle over next few weeks. A lot of finishers have to have contracts in place before banks will allow short term loans to be in place for stock and feed over next few weeks.

It will all come down to numbers for next 4-6 weeks processors will have 30 month limit on there side as the March 2013 cattle dissappear or go over age pressure will come on the kill if the CMS is right ( maybe it is wrong and someone there pressed the wrong button in March) 60K less cattle could be squeezed into 8-12 weeks, that is 5-8K/week less than last year. it is not about being clever it is about understanding your business.

I only buy cattle at one or two stages ever year, and it is the same with selling. As a lad that works as well I cannot afford to be in the Mart 3-4 days a week ( when I retire in 8-10 years time it will be different). In general from this week on I will be going 1-2 times a week if I can. If I see value I will dip into the market. But I think that this year we will see a strong finishing price at some stage in the autumn. Weather will dictate it to an extent as will cull cows and now China is the known unknown as Donald Rumfelt would say.

Willfarman · 12-08-2015 04:02PM

The factories aren't trying anything.

They have dropped the price 20 to to 25 cent from its peak 4 odd weeks ago.
That is a fact. Kill sheets available if needed.. I'll have to get a loan of ap2014 scanner though!

I wouldn't like to be looking at overge fat cattle that are not worth what they were a month ago. Be a Hardened seller and bla h blah Justin McCarthy bull****! The real clever guys aimed to and killed weeks ago and are starting to buy again now. 420kg friesian bought yesterday 700€. Will easy put up 50 kgs by nov. And graze 3 of them to every two heavy cattle.

Muckit · 12-08-2015 04:14PM

The more you talk there Puds, l'm realising there isn't a hope in hell the factories will allow the 30 mth limit to be upped. Beef forum or no beef forum.

AP2014 · 12-08-2015 04:34PM

Willfarman wrote: »

The factories aren't trying anything.

They have dropped the price 20 to to 25 cent from its peak 4 odd weeks ago.
That is a fact. Kill sheets available if needed.. I'll have to get a loan of ap2014 scanner though!

I wouldn't like to be looking at overge fat cattle that are not worth what they were a month ago. Be a Hardened seller and bla h blah Justin McCarthy bull****! The real clever guys aimed to and killed weeks ago and are starting to buy again now. 420kg friesian bought yesterday 700€. Will easy put up 50 kgs by nov. And graze 3 of them to every two heavy cattle.

Post them on to me and I'll scan them in for ya:) The price might be back up again I get around to it though.

Nettleman · 12-08-2015 05:22PM

AP2014 wrote: »

Post them on to me and I'll scan them in for ya:) The price might be back up again I get around to it though.

I taught you were running low cost operation there AP, scanners now and a computer !!:D:D

simx · 12-08-2015 07:35PM

Nettleman wrote: »

I taught you were running low cost operation there AP, scanners now and a computer !!:D:D

I hope his office didn't cost as much as greenfields

whelan2 · 12-08-2015 07:47PM

Blooded a few yesterday a few fr culls - still milking in good condition- a pb aa cow cull in good condition and a pb aa heifer 2 years old. Will I get rid asap? Have 60 days from blooding

Willfarman · 12-08-2015 10:12PM

whelan2 wrote: »

Blooded a few yesterday a few fr culls - still milking in good condition- a pb aa cow cull in good condition and a pb aa heifer 2 years old. Will I get rid asap? Have 60 days from blooding

I say yes.

Cassidy2 · 12-08-2015 11:27PM

whelan2 wrote: »

Blooded a few yesterday a few fr culls - still milking in good condition- a pb aa cow cull in good condition and a pb aa heifer 2 years old. Will I get rid asap? Have 60 days from blooding

What value have you on them.i could call?

Farmer Pudsey · 12-08-2015 11:55PM

Cassidy2 wrote: »

What value have you on them.i could call?

You have been talking down the trade since you arrived and now after 18 posts you want to whip an old lady's couple cows:rolleyes:

Kovu · 12-08-2015 11:58PM

Farmer Pudsey wrote: »

You have been talking down the trade since you arrived and now after 18 posts you want to whip an old lady's couple cows:rolleyes:

RIP Pudsey.

CloughCasey1 · 13-08-2015 12:18AM

Willfarman wrote: »

I say yes.

I say hold until Sept.

Cassidy2 · 13-08-2015 08:24AM

Farmer Pudsey wrote: »

You have been talking down the trade since you arrived and now after 18 posts you want to whip an old lady's couple cows:rolleyes:

I am delighted you can count ðŸ˜Š

orm0nd · 13-08-2015 08:59AM

Farmer Pudsey wrote: »

You have been talking down the trade since you arrived and now after 18 posts you want to whip an old lady's couple cows:rolleyes:

had a busy day planned but think I'll hang around for a bit

BOT neighbour sold 2 well fleshed br fr cows @ mart 700 kgs €1400 , 670kgs €1070

blooding finished cows & selling @ mart??? yes you keeping the vets,marts happy and helping to pay for the 151 trucks that i see some of the tanglers driving

whelan2 · 13-08-2015 09:09AM

Farmer Pudsey wrote: »

You have been talking down the trade since you arrived and now after 18 posts you want to whip an old lady's couple cows:rolleyes:

i'd say you're a fair bit older than me?

whelan2 · 13-08-2015 09:15AM

orm0nd wrote: »

had a busy day planned but think I'll hang around for a bit

BOT neighbour sold 2 well fleshed br fr cows @ mart 700 kgs €1400 , 670kgs €1070

blooding finished cows & selling @ mart??? yes you keeping the vets,marts happy and helping to pay for the 151 trucks that i see some of the tanglers driving

vet was out to a sick bull so made it worth their while and got them blooded. Did you see the pic of the 152 scania at ardee mart? He normally buys a few culls from me

White Clover · 13-08-2015 12:12PM

orm0nd wrote: »

had a busy day planned but think I'll hang around for a bit

BOT neighbour sold 2 well fleshed br fr cows @ mart 700 kgs €1400 , 670kgs €1070

blooding finished cows & selling @ mart??? yes you keeping the vets,marts happy and helping to pay for the 151 trucks that i see some of the tanglers driving

Sorry Ormond, I didn't have time for my weetabix this morning. Not sure if it's a typo but BOT ?

AP2014 · 13-08-2015 12:42PM

Nettleman wrote: »

I taught you were running low cost operation there AP, scanners now and a computer !!:D:D

That's what work laptop, scanner and phone is for. Don't tell the tax man though, he is paying for my free phone as well as work!

AP2014 · 13-08-2015 12:44PM

whelan2 wrote: »

i'd say you're a fair bit older than me?

Are you near the pension yet whelan?

whelan2 · 13-08-2015 02:13PM

AP2014 wrote: »

Are you near the pension yet whelan?

closer than i was last year:)

orm0nd · 13-08-2015 02:24PM

whelan2 wrote: »

vet was out to a sick bull so made it worth their while and got them blooded. Did you see the pic of the 152 scania at ardee mart? He normally buys a few culls from me

sorry , not meant at you personally
#was referring to people who test 1 or 2 finished animals & then sell at a mart below their value , met a 151 C reg coming out of roscrea last week , seen the driver with the long arm in the ring at Kilmallock a few times.. at big sales , same guy wouldn't make you too rich

White Clover wrote: »

Sorry Ormond, I didn't have time for my weetabix this morning. Not sure if it's a typo but BOT ?

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