Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion: Spring/Summer 15

gogreen81 · 04-07-2015 05:49PM

Was reading this weather post
Tbh I Havnt seen much of lighting - severe thunderstorm here in ireland for last year or two since am here .
Also rain is not that heavy
Am I right in saying that ?

Clonmel1000 · 04-07-2015 05:57PM

gogreen81 wrote: »

Was reading this weather post
Tbh I Havnt seen much of lighting - severe thunderstorm here in ireland for last year or two since am here .
Also rain is not that heavy
Am I right in saying that ?

Yes

Hal1 · 04-07-2015 06:34PM

Few flashes on that webcam now.

Edit: one loud crack!

maquiladora · 04-07-2015 06:41PM

12Z for tomorrow.

Notice that one hour later there are big holes in the CAPE where the model has fired off a few storms in the east.

FWVT · 04-07-2015 08:06PM

Northern Leinster and southeastern Ulster look best for lightning tomorrow. Coldest pool at 500 hPa overlying a nice area of higher theta-e, and still hanging onto some DLS. We may see a few hours of pulse sferics through Kildare, Wicklow, Dublin, Meath and Louth in the afternoon. I think there's a better chance than there was last night, given the colder upper pool.

maquiladora · 04-07-2015 08:14PM

I see showers on the satellite popping up now way off at sea from the southwest coast and starting to produce a few sparks. Think there is a slight chance of these cropping up close to the south coast overnight/early tomorrow morning.

FWVT · 04-07-2015 08:44PM

maquiladora wrote: »

I see showers on the satellite popping up now way off at sea from the southwest coast and starting to produce a few sparks. Think there is a slight chance of these cropping up close to the south coast overnight/early tomorrow morning.

That's where the pool of coldest uppers is now.

SpaceTime · 04-07-2015 08:56PM

There have been some pretty huge non-charged thunder clouds over Cork for the last few hours. Very heavy showers, enough to actually almost stop the N25 earlier on as it was just a total deluge that you couldn't see through.

MidMan25 · 04-07-2015 09:11PM

SpaceTime wrote: »

There have been some pretty huge non-charged thunder clouds over Cork for the last few hours. Very heavy showers, enough to actually almost stop the N25 earlier on as it was just a total deluge that you couldn't see through.

Whereabouts?

I live just off the N25 and didn't have more than a little drizzle!

maquiladora · 04-07-2015 11:18PM

EURO4 looking pretty showery early on. This is 9am.

2k WRF is bone dry at 9am. Slight difference there!

SpaceTime · 05-07-2015 12:08AM

MidMan25 wrote: »

Whereabouts?

I live just off the N25 and didn't have more than a little drizzle!

Just on the way in to Cork City on the 120km/h bit.

barney 20v · 05-07-2015 12:15AM

Just lost power here in mid Wexford- started raining - I suspect lightning to our south .

vickers209 · 05-07-2015 12:16AM

Level 3 over Germany for wind gusts

50% chance of lightning over Ireland tomorrow

showforecast.cgi?lightningmap=yes&fcstfile=2015070606_201507042336_3_stormforecast.xml

showforecast.cgi?lightningmap=yes&fcstfile=2015070606_201507042336_3_stormforecast.xml

dubscottie · 05-07-2015 12:18AM

barney 20v wrote: »

Just lost power here in mid Wexford- started raining - I suspect lightning to our south .

Drunk person hitting a ESB pole with a car?

maquiladora · 05-07-2015 12:21AM

vickers209 wrote: »

50% chance of lightning over Ireland tomorrow

I think there is a 100% of lightning somewhere over Ireland tomorrow.

The 50% refers to the probably of lightning within 40km of any point within that area.

FWVT · 05-07-2015 02:19AM

ECMWF CAPE at 12Z.

ecm0125_millikort_msl_cape_gh1000-500_t850_2015070400_036.png

RobertKK · 05-07-2015 05:01AM

vickers209 wrote: »

Level 3 over Germany for wind gusts

50% chance of lightning over Ireland tomorrow

Just reading why they issued level 3 and level 2.

Damaging supercells likely to form with large to very large hail, tornadoes and excessive precipitation.
The derecho likely to have winds gusting in excess of 120km/hr.

The Tour de France started yesterday, it will be in a Level 2 warning area, yesterday they said today might be difficult with cross winds. It will be over before the risk of tornadoes appear.

RobertKK · 05-07-2015 05:20AM

Thunderstorms getting going about 200 miles south of our island. A number of consistent strikes.

Rikand · 05-07-2015 07:20AM

RobertKK wrote: »

Thunderstorms getting going about 200 miles south of our island. A number of consistent strikes.

Still going. Should be hitting the south coast in an hour if still going strong

maquiladora · 05-07-2015 07:48AM

Rikand wrote: »

Still going. Should be hitting the south coast in an hour if still going strong

I think that cell is dying. Some new cells might develop though.
Without sufficient shear these type of storms only have a lifespan of about an hour before they fizzle out.

Supercell · 05-07-2015 08:08AM

Wettest day in a long time here, had several downpours already, we seem to be in the firing line for the moment.

maquiladora · 05-07-2015 08:12AM

Thunder warning from Met Eireann.

STATUS YELLOW

Thunder Warning for Munster, Leinster, Cavan, Monaghan and Donegal

Risk of thundery downpours today.

Issued:
Sunday 05 July 2015 07:00
Valid:
Sunday 05 July 2015 08:00 to Sunday 05 July 2015 18:00

MidMan25 · 05-07-2015 08:32AM

Had a few extremely intense and short showers last night, it was bucketing down! (East Cork)

pad199207 · 05-07-2015 08:41AM

Heavy Rain here in Kildare this morning

RobertKK · 05-07-2015 09:30AM

Severe lightning over north west Germany already.
http://www.lightningmaps.org/realtime?lang=en trying to keep up with it.

maquiladora · 05-07-2015 09:37AM

Very dark skies to the southwest here. So far just a handful of strikes off the coast this morning.

pad199207 · 05-07-2015 09:41AM

Not even a handful of strikes Maq. We shall see when those cells move on land. But I fear Solar Heating isn't sufficient enough just year. But hey it could spark off other discreet cells .

maquiladora · 05-07-2015 09:42AM

A spark now from the heavy shower over Louth.

Furez · 05-07-2015 09:43AM

Heard the same on probably south Co. Monaghan

maquiladora · 05-07-2015 09:44AM

pad199207 wrote: »

Not even a handful of strikes Maq. We shall see when those cells move on land. But I fear Solar Heating isn't sufficient enough just year. But hey it could spark off other discreet cells .

These type of storms usually pop up in the early afternoon so it's early days yet. We'll see what happens.

Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion: Spring/Summer 15

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