UFC 189 -Chad Mendes v Conor McGregor

Paully D · 28-06-2015 10:10PM #1

I'm unsure how the moderators want to handle this one, but as we always have seperate threads for events I thought I'd get this one fired up considering this is our next UFC event. In an ideal world we can keep this thread for discussion around the actual event itself and keep the well documented speculation etc to the other one.

Date: Saturday July 11th
Venue: MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas
Time: Early Prelims (Fight Pass 12am GMT), Prelims (BT Sport 1, 1am), Main Card (BT Sport 1, 3am)
Odds: Aldo (5/4) v McGregor (4/5)

Note - if Jose Aldo can't fight for whatever reason, Chad Mendes steps in to fight McGregor for the interim title.

What time will McGregor's fight start at?
This question will undoubtedly be asked a lot. It's difficult to give a precise time, but if you tune in around 4:45am you certainly won't miss Conor's fight and will have a bit of time to settle in beforehand.

How can I watch the event if I don't have access to BT Sport?
It's a pay-per-view. You can purchase the event on UFC TV to stream for €17.99. This will give you access to all of the fights on the main card, including Conor's fight.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g4xewIFm8go

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_8nWYu6mtFs

Crann na Beatha · 28-06-2015 10:16PM

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Paully D · 28-06-2015 10:47PM

JT26 wrote: »

cmon Rory!!!!!!!!!

I really hope he does it too. Rory is a funny one for me. Outside the octagon he comes across as the most genuine fella you could meet, so quiet and down to earth. There's no way you could possibly think he was a fighter if you just met him or saw him walking down the street. Yet he's the same guy who wants to re-instate headbutts, kicks and knees to the head on the ground :pac:

Interestingly, this event also has the 2 current champions defending their title as underdogs on the same card. It'll be a long time before we ever see that again.

Crann na Beatha · 28-06-2015 10:50PM

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OverUnderP4P · 29-06-2015 09:42AM

Conor by Ko, Rory by decision and Gunni by Sub.

Cant wait for this one

Petermc83 · 29-06-2015 10:06AM

If Aldo can make weight ( after his injury problems), i can see Conor winning by TKO.. the rib injury will surely hamper the champ and lack of training will def matter so close to the fight.
before the panic last week i was 60/40 for Aldo but after what has gone on, im favouring 75/25 Conor..
Cant wait for this now!!!

Rory by decision
Thatch by TKO

Are we organising a boardie meetup?
Anyone else going to the Expo?

akelly02 · 29-06-2015 10:19AM

OverUnderP4P wrote: »

Conor by Ko, Rory by decision and Gunni by Sub.

Cant wait for this one

Think Gunni will have serious trouble with Thatches striking. Lets hope he takes it to the mat early. If he cant stand with Rick Story the Thatch will cause big trouble.

Ken Shamrock · 29-06-2015 10:20AM

I know we are all Irish lads, well the majority. But that poll is hilarious.

Petermc83 · 29-06-2015 10:23AM

Bob.Carcass wrote: »

I know we are all Irish lads, well the majority. But that poll is hilarious.

As i said Bob, the injury to Aldo changed my opinion of the fight.. it prob has affected everyone else too.

akelly02 · 29-06-2015 10:25AM

This might be controversial but re the stats on each fighter above, will Denis Siver say Conors takedown defence shouldnt be 100% there

All_in_Flynn · 29-06-2015 10:26AM

Really looking forward to the event as a whole now.

I think Conor will do the business regardless of opponent. I just think he's too big for Mendes. If his knee is 100% I think he'll have little trouble keeping him on the outside and pick him off. I'd be concerned if the rumours regarding his knee were true though.

I'm siding with Rory in the co-main. He's improved again since the 1st meeting but I can't for the life of me see how he's so short in the bookies. It's a real pickem fight and was expecting the price to be 11/10 or 10/11 thereabouts.

I'm worried for Gunnar. Thatch is a tough match up. He needs to get the fight to the ground as quick as possible as I think he's outmatched on the feet but maybe he'll surprise me there.

Can't wait now!

John_D80 · 29-06-2015 10:33AM

Is it just my shamrock tinted glasses or can anyone else see the Irish fighters and Gunnar Nelson winning 4 from 4 here.

I honestly think Nelson has the toughest fight of the 4 (relatively speaking of course), and he would have to be the underdog with the bookies but I can see a submission victory for him here. Thatch is good but I dont think he is the powerhouse he was being lauded as before he met Benson Henderson.

The other 3 would probably be favourites to win their respective bouts? Very excited to see Neil Seery in action again.

Ken Shamrock · 29-06-2015 10:35AM

John_D80 wrote: »

Is it just my shamrock tinted glasses or can anyone else see the Irish fighters and Gunnar Nelson winning 4 from 4 here.

I honestly think Nelson has the toughest fight of the 4 (relatively speaking of course), and he would have to be the underdog with the bookies but I can see a submission victory for him here. Thatch is good but I dont think he is the powerhouse he was being lauded as before he met Benson Henderson.

The other 3 would probably be favourites to win their respective bouts? Very excited to see Neil Seery in action again.

Definitely the tinted glasses, don't get me wrong It's not impossible, Nelson has a job on his hands for sure but how people can say McGregor is the Favorite against Aldo is beyond me.

Zero-Cool · 29-06-2015 10:38AM

akelly02 wrote: »

This might be controversial but re the stats on each fighter above, will Denis Siver say Conors takedown defence shouldnt be 100% there

I don't think they were offically counted as takedowns as his arse never touched the ground on one or both and the other one he popped straight back up so wasn't counted.

I think Conor has the weapons to finish Aldo, I see a TKO in the 3rd or 4th. That's not me being biased, I know Aldo is a beast and it will be a close fight but I see Conor taking this and I cannot f*cking wait!

Mellor · 29-06-2015 10:38AM

akelly02 wrote: »

This might be controversial but re the stats on each fighter above, will Denis Siver say Conors takedown defence shouldnt be 100% there

Siver didn't take Conor down, he shot and Conor got out pretty easily.

You need to secure the position for the TD to score.

NIMAN · 29-06-2015 10:39AM

Gone for Aldo by decision.

But I know little about the sport tbh, just going on what I've read and footage seen in the last year or two.

Paully D · 29-06-2015 10:42AM

Bob.Carcass wrote: »

I know we are all Irish lads, well the majority. But that poll is hilarious.

McGregor by KO/TKO is the most favoured outcome by some way as per 20 + bookmakers. That method of victory is 6/5, with an Aldo KO/TKO the next best at 7/2.

The bookmakers are not ones to let other factors get in the way, so it's a good indication that the McGregor KO/TKO is most likely to be the correct prediction.

Ken Shamrock · 29-06-2015 10:53AM

Paully D wrote: »

McGregor by KO/TKO is the most favoured outcome by some way as per 20 + bookmakers. That method of victory is 6/5, with an Aldo KO/TKO the next best at 7/2.

The bookmakers are not ones to let other factors get in the way, so it's a good indication that the McGregor KO/TKO is most likely to be the correct prediction.

So you think that someone is going to win an MMA fight by KO because the bookies said so?

Paully D · 29-06-2015 10:58AM

Bob.Carcass wrote: »

So you think that someone is going to win an MMA fight by KO because the bookies said so?

No, I think (and hope) that McGregor is going to win by KO for many other reasons. In fact I made my prediction on the poll before I knew the method of victory odds.

However, bookmakers are correct far more than they are wrong, so if they have McGregor by KO as their favourite outcome it certainly (from a personal viewpoint) re-affirms my initial thinking.

Ken Shamrock · 29-06-2015 11:05AM

Paully D wrote: »

No, I think (and hope) that McGregor is going to win by KO for many other reasons. In fact I made my prediction on the poll before I knew the method of victory odds.

However, bookmakers are correct far more than they are wrong, so if they have McGregor by KO as their favourite outcome it certainly (from a personal viewpoint) re-affirms my initial thinking.

Well what's your other reasons? Do people have their own opinions on this or are they just rooting for McGregor because he's Irish and they've seen him win a few matches? That's my Concern.

Picking the winner of an MMA fight based on odds in the bookies is fine, If that's what someone wants to do, do it, but don't be surprised If they're wrong. Take a look at Fight Night 61.

Petermc83 · 29-06-2015 11:12AM

Bob.Carcass wrote: »

Well what's your other reasons? Do people have their own opinions on this or are they just rooting for McGregor because he's Irish and they've seen him win a few matches? That's my Concern.

Picking the winner of an MMA fight based on odds in the bookies is fine, If that's what someone wants to do, do it, but don't be surprised If they're wrong. Take a look at Fight Night 61.

Well I am picking Conor due to the fact that Aldo is not 100% and that with the speed and accuracy of bodykicks that will thrown by him will have a huge effect on the injured ribs of Aldo. The deterioration of speed from Aldo again because of the injured ribs will only increase the chances of Conor avoiding getting hit. By no means am i having clouded judgement because i am rooting for the irish fighter, i just think that the fight has now changed due to the injury reported last week.

whats your verdict on how it will go down Bob?

Ken Shamrock · 29-06-2015 11:18AM

Petermc83 wrote: »

Well I am picking Conor due to the fact that Aldo is not 100% and that with the speed and accuracy of bodykicks that will thrown by him will have a huge effect on the injured ribs of Aldo. The deterioration of speed from Aldo again because of the injured ribs will only increase the chances of Conor avoiding getting hit. By no means am i having clouded judgement because i am rooting for the irish fighter, i just think that the fight has now changed due to the injury reported last week.

whats your verdict on how it will go down Bob?

That's fair enough, very possible. I wasn't having a go at you btw Peter, I just don't think the majority have an opinion based on the 2 fighters rather than based on the Irish McGregor.

I think It's going to be a very exciting fight that can go either way, I would slighter favour Aldo but the injury has thrown in some small doubt. If Aldo fights, he will not be fighting with an injury that will affect his game, If the injury is that bad he simply will not fight (shock).

McGregor has a great stand up game and great takedown defence, but Aldo is no slob on his feet either, he has the experience. There's no doubt this fight will go to the ground in my eyes and If that happens all of a sudden Mcgregor is going to get tested.

I think Mcgregor is a very good fighter, but this is his first big big test, If he wins this nobody can deny him his glory. But he will have to defend that title again and again and again. It's one thing to become a champion It's another to stay a champion.

I also have a Joe Roganesque conspiracy theory that the Injury Is fake and Aldo wants McGregor to focus his ribs so he can catch off guard :pac:

Saipanne · 29-06-2015 11:21AM

I was saying Aldo win up until the rib injury. But if Aldo does show up, I can't see past McGregor.

akelly02 · 29-06-2015 11:24AM

Mellor wrote: »

Siver didn't take Conor down, he shot and Conor got out pretty easily.

You need to secure the position for the TD to score.

Was thinking that myself. Anyone else notice tends to slip sometimes when performing the spinning back kick, very nearly got him in trouble against Porier, and i thing he slipped once or twice against Siver, Aldo would be after him a lot quicker than Porier did if it was to happen again

Petermc83 · 29-06-2015 11:29AM

Bob.Carcass wrote: »

That's fair enough, very possible. I wasn't having a go at you btw Peter, I just don't think the majority have an opinion based on the 2 fighters rather than based on the Irish McGregor.

I think It's going to be a very exciting fight that can go either way, I would slighter favour Aldo but the injury has thrown in some small doubt. If Aldo fights, he will not be fighting with an injury that will affect his game, If the injury is that bad he simply will not fight (shock).

McGregor has a great stand up game and great takedown defence, but Aldo is no slob on his feet either, he has the experience. There's no doubt this fight will go to the ground in my eyes and If that happens all of a sudden Mcgregor is going to get tested.

I think Mcgregor is a very good fighter, but this is his first big big test, If he wins this nobody can deny him his glory. But he will have to defend that title again and again and again. It's one thing to become a champion It's another to stay a champion.

I also have a Joe Roganesque conspiracy theory that the Injury Is fake and Aldo wants McGregor to focus his ribs so he can catch off guard :pac:

No i know you werent having a go at me.. its a forum.. we are all entitled to our opinions.
I hope your right about the conspiracy because then we can see how Conor fairs against the best of the best. Aldo is champion for a reason, he has beaten everyone who the WEC/UFC have put in front of him.
I feel though that if Conor wins, it will be seen a little tainted as the "injury" will be brought up as the reason why.. but you cant take away from the fact that we have an Irishman fighting at the highest level for a World Championship and we should be proud of that. Look how far this country has come in 10years in MMA... from Tom Egan at the first UFC Dublin to having a legitimate contender for a championship..soak up these few weeks boys and girls..its going to be a hell of a ride!!!

Ken Shamrock · 29-06-2015 11:32AM

Petermc83 wrote: »

No i know you werent having a go at me.. its a forum.. we are all entitled to our opinions.
I hope your right about the conspiracy because then we can see how Conor fairs against the best of the best. Aldo is champion for a reason, he has beaten everyone who the WEC/UFC have put in front of him.
I feel though that if Conor wins, it will be seen a little tainted as the "injury" will be brought up as the reason why.. but you cant take away from the fact that we have an Irishman fighting at the highest level for a World Championship and we should be proud of that. Look how far this country has come in 10years in MMA... from Tom Egan at the first UFC Dublin to having a legitimate contender for a championship..soak up these few weeks boys and girls..its going to be a hell of a ride!!!

Well the conspiracy theory Is just that, a conspiracy. Maybe Aldo will use the "injury" as an excuse but knowing Conor he will gladly welcome Aldo to a rematch (If he wins of course" as I said, becoming the champion is great, but you gotta hold onto It. I will certainly rate McGregor a lot higher If he wins.

NIMAN · 29-06-2015 11:32AM

Do bookies not set their prices based on where the money is going? Mc Gregor being favourite with them means more people are backing him here does it not?

Same with the grand national, the favourite starts with the lowest price because it's the most backed horse, not because the bookies think it's going to win.

Davei141 · 29-06-2015 11:39AM

I didn't know who was going to win at all before the rib injury news, now I am backing McGregor completely if it goes ahead. It isn't just the Irish who will be favouring McGregor after that news as rib injuries are no joke.

jimmii · 29-06-2015 11:45AM

NIMAN wrote: »

Do bookies not set their prices based on where the money is going? Mc Gregor being favourite with them means more people are backing him here does it not?

Same with the grand national, the favourite starts with the lowest price because it's the most backed horse, not because the bookies think it's going to win.

Combination of both. Normally they are just looking to have an all green book but sometimes they may be willing to take an option on and willing to risk having it as a loser if it does come in and in cases such as McGregor pretty much no matter what odds they set on him (within reason) then it is going to be a loser for them if he wins. They also have to take into account other bookies prices so that people can't arb it.

Connavar · 29-06-2015 11:47AM

NIMAN wrote: »

Do bookies not set their prices based on where the money is going? Mc Gregor being favourite with them means more people are backing him here does it not?

Same with the grand national, the favourite starts with the lowest price because it's the most backed horse, not because the bookies think it's going to win.

Correct, they constantly re evaluate and try to guarantee profit independent of the actual outcome

CatFromHue · 29-06-2015 11:47AM

Has Aldo ever fought anyone as tall or with as big a reach as McGregor? I think Conor's is 74 inch and Aldo's 70 inch which seems like a big advantage to McGregor.

While Siver may not be in the same class as Aldo he has the same reach and just couldn't get close enough to connect with McGregor. He actually threw some good combinations but none of them were close enough to connect.

UFC 189 -Chad Mendes v Conor McGregor

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