UFC 189 -Chad Mendes v Conor McGregor

Paully D

I'm unsure how the moderators want to handle this one, but as we always have seperate threads for events I thought I'd get this one fired up considering this is our next UFC event. In an ideal world we can keep this thread for discussion around the actual event itself and keep the well documented speculation etc to the other one.





Date: Saturday July 11th
Venue: MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas
Time: Early Prelims (Fight Pass 12am GMT), Prelims (BT Sport 1, 1am), Main Card (BT Sport 1, 3am)
Odds: Aldo (5/4) v McGregor (4/5)

Note - if Jose Aldo can't fight for whatever reason, Chad Mendes steps in to fight McGregor for the interim title.

What time will McGregor's fight start at?
This question will undoubtedly be asked a lot. It's difficult to give a precise time, but if you tune in around 4:45am you certainly won't miss Conor's fight and will have a bit of time to settle in beforehand.

How can I watch the event if I don't have access to BT Sport?
It's a pay-per-view. You can purchase the event on UFC TV to stream for €17.99. This will give you access to all of the fights on the main card, including Conor's fight.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g4xewIFm8go

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_8nWYu6mtFs

Crann na Beatha

This post has been deleted.

Paully D

JT26 wrote: »

cmon Rory!!!!!!!!!

I really hope he does it too. Rory is a funny one for me. Outside the octagon he comes across as the most genuine fella you could meet, so quiet and down to earth. There's no way you could possibly think he was a fighter if you just met him or saw him walking down the street. Yet he's the same guy who wants to re-instate headbutts, kicks and knees to the head on the ground :pac:

Interestingly, this event also has the 2 current champions defending their title as underdogs on the same card. It'll be a long time before we ever see that again.

Crann na Beatha

This post has been deleted.

OverUnderP4P

Conor by Ko, Rory by decision and Gunni by Sub.

Cant wait for this one

Petermc83

If Aldo can make weight ( after his injury problems), i can see Conor winning by TKO.. the rib injury will surely hamper the champ and lack of training will def matter so close to the fight.
before the panic last week i was 60/40 for Aldo but after what has gone on, im favouring 75/25 Conor..
Cant wait for this now!!!

Rory by decision
Thatch by TKO

Are we organising a boardie meetup?
Anyone else going to the Expo?

akelly02

OverUnderP4P wrote: »

Conor by Ko, Rory by decision and Gunni by Sub.

Cant wait for this one

Think Gunni will have serious trouble with Thatches striking. Lets hope he takes it to the mat early. If he cant stand with Rick Story the Thatch will cause big trouble.

Ken Shamrock

I know we are all Irish lads, well the majority. But that poll is hilarious.

Petermc83

Bob.Carcass wrote: »

I know we are all Irish lads, well the majority. But that poll is hilarious.

As i said Bob, the injury to Aldo changed my opinion of the fight.. it prob has affected everyone else too.

akelly02

This might be controversial but re the stats on each fighter above, will Denis Siver say Conors takedown defence shouldnt be 100% there

All_in_Flynn

Really looking forward to the event as a whole now.

I think Conor will do the business regardless of opponent. I just think he's too big for Mendes. If his knee is 100% I think he'll have little trouble keeping him on the outside and pick him off. I'd be concerned if the rumours regarding his knee were true though.

I'm siding with Rory in the co-main. He's improved again since the 1st meeting but I can't for the life of me see how he's so short in the bookies. It's a real pickem fight and was expecting the price to be 11/10 or 10/11 thereabouts.

I'm worried for Gunnar. Thatch is a tough match up. He needs to get the fight to the ground as quick as possible as I think he's outmatched on the feet but maybe he'll surprise me there.

Can't wait now!

John_D80

Is it just my shamrock tinted glasses or can anyone else see the Irish fighters and Gunnar Nelson winning 4 from 4 here.

I honestly think Nelson has the toughest fight of the 4 (relatively speaking of course), and he would have to be the underdog with the bookies but I can see a submission victory for him here. Thatch is good but I dont think he is the powerhouse he was being lauded as before he met Benson Henderson.

The other 3 would probably be favourites to win their respective bouts? Very excited to see Neil Seery in action again.

Ken Shamrock

John_D80 wrote: »

Is it just my shamrock tinted glasses or can anyone else see the Irish fighters and Gunnar Nelson winning 4 from 4 here.

I honestly think Nelson has the toughest fight of the 4 (relatively speaking of course), and he would have to be the underdog with the bookies but I can see a submission victory for him here. Thatch is good but I dont think he is the powerhouse he was being lauded as before he met Benson Henderson.

The other 3 would probably be favourites to win their respective bouts? Very excited to see Neil Seery in action again.

Definitely the tinted glasses, don't get me wrong It's not impossible, Nelson has a job on his hands for sure but how people can say McGregor is the Favorite against Aldo is beyond me.

Zero-Cool

akelly02 wrote: »

This might be controversial but re the stats on each fighter above, will Denis Siver say Conors takedown defence shouldnt be 100% there

I don't think they were offically counted as takedowns as his arse never touched the ground on one or both and the other one he popped straight back up so wasn't counted.

I think Conor has the weapons to finish Aldo, I see a TKO in the 3rd or 4th. That's not me being biased, I know Aldo is a beast and it will be a close fight but I see Conor taking this and I cannot f*cking wait!

Mellor

akelly02 wrote: »

This might be controversial but re the stats on each fighter above, will Denis Siver say Conors takedown defence shouldnt be 100% there

Siver didn't take Conor down, he shot and Conor got out pretty easily.

You need to secure the position for the TD to score.

NIMAN

Gone for Aldo by decision.

But I know little about the sport tbh, just going on what I've read and footage seen in the last year or two.

Paully D

Bob.Carcass wrote: »

I know we are all Irish lads, well the majority. But that poll is hilarious.

McGregor by KO/TKO is the most favoured outcome by some way as per 20 + bookmakers. That method of victory is 6/5, with an Aldo KO/TKO the next best at 7/2.

The bookmakers are not ones to let other factors get in the way, so it's a good indication that the McGregor KO/TKO is most likely to be the correct prediction.

Ken Shamrock

Paully D wrote: »

McGregor by KO/TKO is the most favoured outcome by some way as per 20 + bookmakers. That method of victory is 6/5, with an Aldo KO/TKO the next best at 7/2.

The bookmakers are not ones to let other factors get in the way, so it's a good indication that the McGregor KO/TKO is most likely to be the correct prediction.

So you think that someone is going to win an MMA fight by KO because the bookies said so?

Paully D

Bob.Carcass wrote: »

So you think that someone is going to win an MMA fight by KO because the bookies said so?

No, I think (and hope) that McGregor is going to win by KO for many other reasons. In fact I made my prediction on the poll before I knew the method of victory odds.

However, bookmakers are correct far more than they are wrong, so if they have McGregor by KO as their favourite outcome it certainly (from a personal viewpoint) re-affirms my initial thinking.

Ken Shamrock

Paully D wrote: »

No, I think (and hope) that McGregor is going to win by KO for many other reasons. In fact I made my prediction on the poll before I knew the method of victory odds.

However, bookmakers are correct far more than they are wrong, so if they have McGregor by KO as their favourite outcome it certainly (from a personal viewpoint) re-affirms my initial thinking.

Well what's your other reasons? Do people have their own opinions on this or are they just rooting for McGregor because he's Irish and they've seen him win a few matches? That's my Concern.

Picking the winner of an MMA fight based on odds in the bookies is fine, If that's what someone wants to do, do it, but don't be surprised If they're wrong. Take a look at Fight Night 61.

Petermc83

Bob.Carcass wrote: »

Well what's your other reasons? Do people have their own opinions on this or are they just rooting for McGregor because he's Irish and they've seen him win a few matches? That's my Concern.

Picking the winner of an MMA fight based on odds in the bookies is fine, If that's what someone wants to do, do it, but don't be surprised If they're wrong. Take a look at Fight Night 61.

Well I am picking Conor due to the fact that Aldo is not 100% and that with the speed and accuracy of bodykicks that will thrown by him will have a huge effect on the injured ribs of Aldo. The deterioration of speed from Aldo again because of the injured ribs will only increase the chances of Conor avoiding getting hit. By no means am i having clouded judgement because i am rooting for the irish fighter, i just think that the fight has now changed due to the injury reported last week.

whats your verdict on how it will go down Bob?

Ken Shamrock

Petermc83 wrote: »

Well I am picking Conor due to the fact that Aldo is not 100% and that with the speed and accuracy of bodykicks that will thrown by him will have a huge effect on the injured ribs of Aldo. The deterioration of speed from Aldo again because of the injured ribs will only increase the chances of Conor avoiding getting hit. By no means am i having clouded judgement because i am rooting for the irish fighter, i just think that the fight has now changed due to the injury reported last week.

whats your verdict on how it will go down Bob?

That's fair enough, very possible. I wasn't having a go at you btw Peter, I just don't think the majority have an opinion based on the 2 fighters rather than based on the Irish McGregor.

I think It's going to be a very exciting fight that can go either way, I would slighter favour Aldo but the injury has thrown in some small doubt. If Aldo fights, he will not be fighting with an injury that will affect his game, If the injury is that bad he simply will not fight (shock).

McGregor has a great stand up game and great takedown defence, but Aldo is no slob on his feet either, he has the experience. There's no doubt this fight will go to the ground in my eyes and If that happens all of a sudden Mcgregor is going to get tested.

I think Mcgregor is a very good fighter, but this is his first big big test, If he wins this nobody can deny him his glory. But he will have to defend that title again and again and again. It's one thing to become a champion It's another to stay a champion.

I also have a Joe Roganesque conspiracy theory that the Injury Is fake and Aldo wants McGregor to focus his ribs so he can catch off guard :pac:

Saipanne

I was saying Aldo win up until the rib injury. But if Aldo does show up, I can't see past McGregor.

akelly02

Mellor wrote: »

Siver didn't take Conor down, he shot and Conor got out pretty easily.

You need to secure the position for the TD to score.

Was thinking that myself. Anyone else notice tends to slip sometimes when performing the spinning back kick, very nearly got him in trouble against Porier, and i thing he slipped once or twice against Siver, Aldo would be after him a lot quicker than Porier did if it was to happen again

Petermc83

Bob.Carcass wrote: »

That's fair enough, very possible. I wasn't having a go at you btw Peter, I just don't think the majority have an opinion based on the 2 fighters rather than based on the Irish McGregor.

I think It's going to be a very exciting fight that can go either way, I would slighter favour Aldo but the injury has thrown in some small doubt. If Aldo fights, he will not be fighting with an injury that will affect his game, If the injury is that bad he simply will not fight (shock).

McGregor has a great stand up game and great takedown defence, but Aldo is no slob on his feet either, he has the experience. There's no doubt this fight will go to the ground in my eyes and If that happens all of a sudden Mcgregor is going to get tested.

I think Mcgregor is a very good fighter, but this is his first big big test, If he wins this nobody can deny him his glory. But he will have to defend that title again and again and again. It's one thing to become a champion It's another to stay a champion.

I also have a Joe Roganesque conspiracy theory that the Injury Is fake and Aldo wants McGregor to focus his ribs so he can catch off guard :pac:

No i know you werent having a go at me.. its a forum.. we are all entitled to our opinions.
I hope your right about the conspiracy because then we can see how Conor fairs against the best of the best. Aldo is champion for a reason, he has beaten everyone who the WEC/UFC have put in front of him.
I feel though that if Conor wins, it will be seen a little tainted as the "injury" will be brought up as the reason why.. but you cant take away from the fact that we have an Irishman fighting at the highest level for a World Championship and we should be proud of that. Look how far this country has come in 10years in MMA... from Tom Egan at the first UFC Dublin to having a legitimate contender for a championship..soak up these few weeks boys and girls..its going to be a hell of a ride!!!

Ken Shamrock

Petermc83 wrote: »

No i know you werent having a go at me.. its a forum.. we are all entitled to our opinions.
I hope your right about the conspiracy because then we can see how Conor fairs against the best of the best. Aldo is champion for a reason, he has beaten everyone who the WEC/UFC have put in front of him.
I feel though that if Conor wins, it will be seen a little tainted as the "injury" will be brought up as the reason why.. but you cant take away from the fact that we have an Irishman fighting at the highest level for a World Championship and we should be proud of that. Look how far this country has come in 10years in MMA... from Tom Egan at the first UFC Dublin to having a legitimate contender for a championship..soak up these few weeks boys and girls..its going to be a hell of a ride!!!

Well the conspiracy theory Is just that, a conspiracy. Maybe Aldo will use the "injury" as an excuse but knowing Conor he will gladly welcome Aldo to a rematch (If he wins of course" as I said, becoming the champion is great, but you gotta hold onto It. I will certainly rate McGregor a lot higher If he wins.

NIMAN

Do bookies not set their prices based on where the money is going? Mc Gregor being favourite with them means more people are backing him here does it not?

Same with the grand national, the favourite starts with the lowest price because it's the most backed horse, not because the bookies think it's going to win.

Davei141

I didn't know who was going to win at all before the rib injury news, now I am backing McGregor completely if it goes ahead. It isn't just the Irish who will be favouring McGregor after that news as rib injuries are no joke.

jimmii

NIMAN wrote: »

Do bookies not set their prices based on where the money is going? Mc Gregor being favourite with them means more people are backing him here does it not?

Same with the grand national, the favourite starts with the lowest price because it's the most backed horse, not because the bookies think it's going to win.

Combination of both. Normally they are just looking to have an all green book but sometimes they may be willing to take an option on and willing to risk having it as a loser if it does come in and in cases such as McGregor pretty much no matter what odds they set on him (within reason) then it is going to be a loser for them if he wins. They also have to take into account other bookies prices so that people can't arb it.

Connavar

NIMAN wrote: »

Do bookies not set their prices based on where the money is going? Mc Gregor being favourite with them means more people are backing him here does it not?

Same with the grand national, the favourite starts with the lowest price because it's the most backed horse, not because the bookies think it's going to win.

Correct, they constantly re evaluate and try to guarantee profit independent of the actual outcome

CatFromHue

Has Aldo ever fought anyone as tall or with as big a reach as McGregor? I think Conor's is 74 inch and Aldo's 70 inch which seems like a big advantage to McGregor.

While Siver may not be in the same class as Aldo he has the same reach and just couldn't get close enough to connect with McGregor. He actually threw some good combinations but none of them were close enough to connect.

SpaceCowb0y

Early days but i reckon this poll has a lot of biased voters the same poll posted in the US would get very different results i'm sure. if both fighters were going in to this 100% it would be extremely hard to call, I'd have to side with the man who hasn't been beaten in 10 years personally but if Conor wins and I hope he does he will have done something amazing!

Ken Shamrock

CatFromHue wrote: »

Has Aldo ever fought anyone as tall or with as big a reach as McGregor? I think Conor's is 74 inch and Aldo's 70 inch which seems like a big advantage to McGregor.

While Siver may not be in the same class as Aldo he has the same reach and just couldn't get close enough to connect with McGregor. He actually threw some good combinations but none of them were close enough to connect.

Florian has a 74 inch reach, Chang Sung a 72, and that's just in the UFC, Aldo has no problem with bigger guys.

Mellor

NIMAN wrote: »

Do bookies not set their prices based on where the money is going? Mc Gregor being favourite with them means more people are backing him here does it not?

He is the favourite all over the world, not just in irish bookies. He wasn't the favourite before the injury.
Basically the bookies think the injury tilts it in Conor's favour.

And that's not how the odds work. The bookie has to decide on a favourite to start with and what the odds will be. The aim is to set the odds based on the probability of each fighter winning.

Tiger Mcilroy

CatFromHue wrote: »

Has Aldo ever fought anyone as tall or with as big a reach as McGregor? I think Conor's is 74 inch and Aldo's 70 inch which seems like a big advantage to McGregor.

While Siver may not be in the same class as Aldo he has the same reach and just couldn't get close enough to connect with McGregor. He actually threw some good combinations but none of them were close enough to connect.

I was at the first UFC in dublin and siver was slow then..Aldo and Siver are not in the same universe let alone class.

Aldo will connect with mcgregor you can be sure of that.

Davei141

SpaceCowb0y wrote: »

Early days but i reckon this poll has a lot of biased voters the same poll posted in the US would get very different results i'm sure. if both fighters were going in to this 100% it would be extremely hard to call, I'd have to side with the man who hasn't been beaten in 10 years personally but if Conor wins and I hope he does he will have done something amazing!

Reading various websites over the past week i doubt many people would pick Aldo in America as all the reporting is about how he is fighting for that payday only, if he even makes it to the event. Aldo supporters don't even want him to fight that injured.

Saipanne

Tiger Mcilroy wrote: »

I was at the first UFC in dublin and siver was slow then..Aldo and Siver are not in the same universe let alone class.

Aldo will connect with mcgregor you can be sure of that.

Was Siver at the first Dublin UFC?

Mellor

Bob.Carcass wrote: »

Florian has a 74 inch reach, Chang Sung a 72, and that's just in the UFC, Aldo has no problem with bigger guys.

Neither of those two are close to Conor in terms of boxing ability.

scudzilla

Saipanne wrote: »

Was Siver at the first Dublin UFC?

Yeah, he won with a brutal rib kick iirc

Tiger Mcilroy

scudzilla wrote: »

Yeah, he won with a brutal rib kick iirc

Yep...the expression on the recipients face was described by my pal as PAAAAIIIIINNNNN.

Ken Shamrock

Mellor wrote: »

Neither of those two are close to Conor in terms of boxing ability.

Ok? But the question was had Aldo ever fought anyone has tall or with as long a reach as Conor.

Mellor

Bob.Carcass wrote: »

Ok? But the question was had Aldo ever fought anyone has tall or with as long a reach as Conor.

I didn't say they weren't as tall or long. They are. Im not disputing that.

But your jump to Aldo has no problem with bigger guys is kinda over looking the most important factor, skillset.

Lucas Hood

See the way you can stream the fights from ufcs site? Can you do that in America?
Just wondering why people would pay the proper ppv price($50/60 over there if that's possible.

Ken Shamrock

Mellor wrote: »

I didn't say they weren't as tall or long. They are. Im not disputing that.

But your jump to Aldo has no problem with bigger guys is kinda over looking the most important factor, skillset.

No It's not? If a guy has a better skillset than Aldo, he has a better skillset whether he's fat short skinny or tall.

We are talking about two different things here, nobody mentioned skillset the question was about size and Aldo HAS had no problem with bigger guys...

Peist2007

Paully D wrote: »

The bookmakers are not ones to let other factors get in the way, so it's a good indication that the McGregor KO/TKO is most likely to be the correct prediction.

Odds are based on where the money is going. If everyone is betting on a McGregor KO then the odds for that will drop to the lowest so as to dissaude others from joining that market. Other odds will slide as a result as bookies attempt to entice money onto Aldo. The bookies are reacting to the market. Hence why i make a load of money when England play in major fooball competitions. The odds are skewed due to people across the pond betting patriotically.

If you think McGregor will win because an Irish bookie has him as favourite then you're picking it up incorrectly.

Mellor

Peist2007 wrote: »

If you think McGregor will win because an Irish bookie has him as favourite then you're picking it up incorrectly.

All bookies have him as favourite. Irish, englush, American, online, exchanges etc.

stephenl15

Mellor wrote: »

All bookies have him as favourite. Irish, englush, American, online, exchanges etc.

Only since the injury though

Peist2007

stephenl15 wrote: »

Only since the injury though

Havent really been paying attention to the market, what were the odds pre-injury?

Peist2007

Mellor wrote: »

All bookies have him as favourite. Irish, englush, American, online, exchanges etc.

My point is that the reason why he is favourite is due to the money being placed on him, not by the bookie employing a resident UFC expert with amazing actuarial skills who decides that a McGregor KO is the most likely option.

dardoz

Guys, McGregor has been the bookies farvourite for weeks now, long before the Aldo injury.

Just google it and you will find several articles outlining this fact.

http://www.ufc-buzz.com/tags/jose-aldo/article/20150514_Pic_Conor_McGregor_is_now_the_bookies_favourite_to_defeat_Jose_Aldo_again

AngryDiMaria

Bob.Carcass wrote: »

I also have a Joe Roganesque conspiracy theory that the Injury Is fake

I have a feeling that he's faking the injury just to try and mess with conors head, I don't think conor will specifically target that area but it has definitely had an effect on him already judging by the last video interview I saw of him. I'd love to see conor knocking him out but I know how good Aldo is and I'm very nervous about the fight