Ukraine: As it happens.

robindch · 18-06-2015 10:06AM

1st dalkey dalkey wrote: »

The USA and Russia have their own agenda's and will not let the sovereignty of some other nation stand in the way of that agenda.

While it's far from perfect, the USA has not created frozen conflicts like Russia has - Transnistra, Abkhazia, South Osstia, Crimea and now East Ukraine. These violations of national sovereignty are peculiarly Russian.

1st dalkey dalkey wrote: »

Maybe Ukraine's only fault in all this was naivety.

Ukraine's primary problems were a massively corrupt political system controlled by oligarchs, which controlled a weak state and weak army, and the misfortune to live next door to a thief with nuclear weapons and the apparent will to threaten to use them.

1st dalkey dalkey wrote: »

They need a leader with a history of commerce, finance, business, international trade.

That. Or at least, Russia needs a leader who isn't a criminal, who respects international law and practice, who doesn't control and dominate Russia's media, who doesn't invade other countries and murder and steal as he wishes, and who doesn't feed the Russian population with a media diet of xenophobic nationalism.

Count Dooku · 18-06-2015 09:18PM

robindch wrote: »

While it's far from perfect, the USA has not created frozen conflicts like Russia has - Transnistra, Abkhazia, South Osstia, Crimea and now East Ukraine.

Yep, instead USA created hot conflicts like Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Libya, Yemen etc where hundreds of thousands people have been killed

robindch wrote: »

Or at least, Russia needs a leader who isn't a criminal, who respects international law and practice, who doesn't control and dominate Russia's media, who doesn't invade other countries and murder and steal as he wishes, and who doesn't feed the Russian population with a media diet of xenophobic nationalism.

Are you sure that Russia, not West, needs another Yeltsyn?

Irish Praetorian · 18-06-2015 09:41PM

Count Dooku wrote: »

Yep, instead USA created hot conflicts like Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Libya, Yemen etc where hundreds of thousands people have been killed

Of those conflicts, only Iraq can be attributed as a US 'creation' and Iraq at least holds the status of an independent country rather than an annexed province.

Are you sure that Russia, not West, needs another Yeltsyn?

Nobody needs another Yeltsin, although the skill with which people have excised all traces of Yeltsins popularity in Russia at the time and painted him as some foreign installation is remarkable.

robindch · 18-06-2015 09:58PM

Count Dooku wrote: »

Are you sure that Russia, not West, needs another Yeltsyn?

Not quite sure why you brought up Yeltsin - another unenlightened Soviet functionary - mostly likely to go down in history as the man who made the disastrous decision to pull Putin up by his ears and grant him the presidency without the hassle of an election.

WakeUp · 19-06-2015 12:03AM

EU leadership in their wisdom have decided to extend the sanctions against Russia until the end of January 2016. because empire. you morons.

EU member states have agreed to extend damaging economic sanctions against Russia over the Ukraine crisis by another six months to the end of January 2016, officials say, as NATO announced its largest defence reinforcement since the Cold War.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-06-18/eu-to-extend-russia-sanctions-to-january-2016/6554798

meanwhile...

US-Russia trade flourishes despite sanctions

he sanctions against Russia are causing significant problems for European companies – by contrast, their American competitors are continuing to do good business. According to Russian statistics, trade between the United States and Russia grew in the prior year by around 6%. By contrast, trade with countries in the European Union (EU) contracted by almost 10%. In the first two months of 2015, trade between the EU and Russia collapsed by a third. Der SPIEGEL (German news magazine – Ed.) reported this in its most recent edition.

“The Americans first exerted a great amount of pressure on Europe to enact tough sanctions,” said Frank Schiff, managing director of the Association of European Business in Moscow. “The fact that they themselves have expanded trade with Russia in the previous year is remarkable.”

http://euromaidanpress.com/2015/05/31/us-russia-trade-flourishes-despite-sanctions/

Folker Hellmeyer, chief analyst at Bremer Landesbank, counts it "very irritating" that the US-Russian trade exchange has gone up almost 6 per cent while the EU's trade with Russia dropped 10 per cent in the time since the sanctions were imposed.

"Over the last year we have seen, the sanction outcomes for the EU and for the United States have obviously and completely diverged," he said in an interview with Bolle Selke. "I see it once more a proof that the United States are very good at setting the rules, but not necessarily so good at sticking to the rules. We also know out of previous sanction policies where the US has avoided such penalties, and it went regularly to the detriment of competing countries in these markets.
"So it makes me very skeptical of the policy implementation that we in the in the EU are maintaining bout sanctions. That should be a warning shot about policy in Brussels, in Berlin, in Paris, in Vienna, in Helsinki, to elicit right now what is the background and maybe even check out the background. "

http://fortruss.blogspot.com.au/2015/06/german-finance-analyst-europe-picks-up.html

FDR went down this road with the Japanese in 1941. We all know how that worked out in the end.

Moscow Furious After Both Belgium And France Freeze Russian State Assets

Russia has summoned the Belgian ambassador to Moscow and threatened to “respond in kind” after bailiffs instructed nearly 50 Belgian companies to disclose Russian state assets, a move which reportedly sets the stage for the seizure of Russian property in connection with the disputed $50 billion Yukos verdict. Essentially, Russia was required to submit a plan for a €1.6 billion payment pursuant to the ECHR decision by June 15, and because Moscow did not do so, Belgium will attempt to extract the payment on its own.

As a refresher, here’s what we said last year regarding the arbitration:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-18/moscow-furious-after-both-belgium-and-france-freeze-russian-state-assets

Gatling · 19-06-2015 12:03AM

Remind me anyone who stirred that hornets nest called Afghanistan .
Historic note December 24 1979 Russian afghan war began .

Seems almost forgot by Russia /Russians

Which led to multiple massacres carried out by Russian forces

Elmer Blooker · 19-06-2015 12:14AM

Irish Praetorian wrote: »

Of those conflicts, only Iraq can be attributed as a US 'creation' and Iraq at least holds the status of an independent country rather than an annexed province.

Nobody needs another Yeltsin, although the skill with which people have excised all traces of Yeltsins popularity in Russia at the time and painted him as some foreign installation is remarkable.

Nobody needs another Yeltsin? Oh yes they do.
Do try and read this from start to finish but most important you must take note that this article is eight years old.
http://original.antiwar.com/justin/2007/04/25/the-legacy-of-boris-yeltsin/

Irish Praetorian · 19-06-2015 12:38AM

WakeUp wrote: »

EU leadership in their wisdom have decided to extend the sanctions against Russia until the end of January 2016. because empire. you morons.

Right, why on earth should the EU ever sanction a country that invades one of its neighbours, it must be some hard-headed Imperial nonsense...

http://euromaidanpress.com/2015/05/31/us-russia-trade-flourishes-despite-sanctions/

Operative phrase there being 'according to Russian statistics' - US figures show a somewhat different picture although the amount of trade between the two is still pretty negligible overall. https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c4621.html

FDR went down this road with the Japanese in 1941. We all know how that worked out in the end.

Because of course, China really should have just rolled over and accepted 'kill all, loot all and burn all' as their lot...

WakeUp · 19-06-2015 12:41AM

Irish Praetorian wrote: »

Right, why on earth should the EU ever sanction a country that invades one of its neighbours, it must be some hard-headed Imperial nonsense...

you might be on to something there. are you.

Irish Praetorian wrote: »

Because of course, China really should have just rolled over and accepted 'kill all, loot all and burn all' as their lot...

yeah but FDR still went down that road with the Japanese. got them pearl harboured. and then some.

Gatling · 19-06-2015 12:42AM

WakeUp wrote: »

you might be on to something there. are you.

yeah but FDR still went down that road with the Japanese. got them pearl harboured. and then some.

Followed by massive retribution.

WakeUp · 19-06-2015 12:45AM

Gatling wrote: »

Followed by massive retribution.

the road to war is paved with good intentions. or something.

Irish Praetorian · 19-06-2015 12:46AM

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

Nobody needs another Yeltsin? Oh yes they do.
Do try and read this from start to finish but most important you must take note that this article is eight years old.
http://original.antiwar.com/justin/2007/04/25/the-legacy-of-boris-yeltsin/

I'm going to set aside comments about 'Antiwar.com' as a source and ask you what kind of point you're trying to make?

Irish Praetorian · 19-06-2015 12:52AM

WakeUp wrote: »

you might be on to something there. are you.

I would certainly need to be on something if I was going to believe some of this nonsense...

yeah but FDR still went down that road with the Japanese. got them pearl harboured. and then some.

Yes that is precisely what FDR did, when a nation was invaded by one of its neighbours, an imperialistic, militaristic, expansionist regime he managed to summon up enough American resolve to impose sanctions, how brave. Now I'm not sure about you, but I don't particularly like the idea that nations are allowed to run amok and abuse their neighbours whilst those of us lucky to live in this part of the world cannot even conjure up the moral courage to at least condemn aggressors, let alone the wherewithal to do something practical about it. This fawning amongst some circles for dictatorial and brutal regimes (provided they proclaim their anti-US credentials) is sickening.

WakeUp · 19-06-2015 12:56AM

Irish Praetorian wrote: »

I would certainly need to be on something if I was going to believe some of this nonsense...

what nonsense?...

Yes that is precisely what FDR did, when a nation was invaded by one of its neighbours, an imperialistic, militaristic, expansionist regime he managed to summon up enough American resolve to impose sanctions, how brave. Now I'm not sure about you, but I don't particularly like the idea that nations are allowed to run amok and abuse their neighbours whilst those of us lucky to live in this part of the world cannot even conjure up the moral courage to at least condemn aggressors, let alone the wherewithal to do something practical about it. This fawning amongst some circles for dictatorial and brutal regimes (provided they proclaim their anti-US credentials) is sickening.

so the sanctions are working then yes...

obplayer · 19-06-2015 01:21AM

WakeUp wrote: »

the road to war is paved with good intentions. or something.

Are you advocating that Russia should go down the war route as opposed to genuine negotiations? Are you also advocating that the EU should bow down to Russian threats of war? Where will that lead us? And If you are advocating neither then what do you suggest the EU do?

obplayer · 19-06-2015 01:23AM

WakeUp wrote: »

yeah but FDR still went down that road with the Japanese. got them pearl harboured. and then some.

Is that almost praise of the Japanese response I hear there? Some kind of 'well at least they had stones' respect?

Irish Praetorian · 19-06-2015 01:27AM

WakeUp wrote: »

what nonsense?...so the sanctions are working then yes...

The sanctions are an appropriate response to Russian actions. Would you prefer that the next time one of our neighbours is invaded we should just shrug our shoulders and go 'oh well'?

WakeUp · 19-06-2015 10:34AM

obplayer wrote: »

Are you advocating that Russia should go down the war route as opposed to genuine negotiations? Are you also advocating that the EU should bow down to Russian threats of war? Where will that lead us? And If you are advocating neither then what do you suggest the EU do?

does it look like Im advocating any kind of war by any of the parties involved particularly Russia Ive no idea where that is coming from...perhaps you can demonstrate this for me...

Is that almost praise of the Japanese response I hear there? Some kind of 'well at least they had stones' respect?

eh, no it isnt. lucky the Russians just like the Japanese dont possess a nuclear arsenal right. already involved in an economic war with Russia. Now European countries are attempting to seize Russian state assets unilaterally. they must be a bit soft in the god damn head if they think Moscow is going to put up with that.

Irish Praetorian wrote: »

The sanctions are an appropriate response to Russian actions. Would you prefer that the next time one of our neighbours is invaded we should just shrug our shoulders and go 'oh well'?

appropriate is all well and good and nice. but are they working? thats what Im asking you. and if they are to what end? what is the desired outcome that is trying to be achieved here. cripple Russia? because of Ukraine.. is that the plan...

robindch · 19-06-2015 01:04PM

obplayer wrote: »

Are you advocating that Russia should go down the war route as opposed to genuine negotiations? Are you also advocating that the EU should bow down to Russian threats of war? Where will that lead us? And If you are advocating neither then what do you suggest the EU do?

Russia is no longer capable of rational negotiation. Its invasion of Ukraine notwithstanding, the country has become the diplomatic equivalent of some randomer who enjoys ringing his neighbours' doorbells, then running away. So long as that's all Putin is doing, the EU isn't going to do much more than continue fiddling, so to speak.

The pro-Russian position is that Russia and Putin have been "insulted" (in a range of manners most convenient for the Russian political system) by the EU, US and NATO and therefore, well, Russia should be free to walk into its neighbours and steal what it's unable to take by threat or bribe.

.

gandalf · 19-06-2015 01:21PM

What happened in Belgium is more than likely going to be repeated in the US and the UK.

GML manager Tim Osborne was quoted in French media as saying similar legal action was being taken against Russian state assets in the UK and US.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-33197782

If you screw people over it's only a matter of time before everything comes back and bites you in the ass. Unless Putin cops on Russia is going to be very isolated indeed and he and his cronies can only survive for so long blaming external boogeymen before the proles realise that the ruling classes are ultimately the ones responsible for their falling living standards.

Irish Praetorian · 19-06-2015 01:27PM

WakeUp wrote: »

appropriate is all well and good and nice. but are they working? thats what Im asking you. and if they are to what end? what is the desired outcome that is trying to be achieved here. cripple Russia? because of Ukraine.. is that the plan...

Given the ruble has halved in value, the Russian economy has started contracting and Putin is making deals with China that he had been holding off on for years - I would say sanctions are having an effect.

Now as for what the desired outcome is, well the wider implication is of course if countries in general behave like this they can expect to get punished. In terms of Russia itself, the first desire is to make sure that Russia thinks twice if it wants to try pulling another Crimea (IE invading, claiming popular support and annexing) - arguably this has already been achieved given their MO in Donetsk and Luhansk. Medium to long term, this should be about ensuring that Ukraine can secure for itself a lasting and decent peace with Russia that doesn't leave it getting invaded every time Putin wants to flag up his own popularity. Now I'm not naive enough to think that the return of Crimea to Ukraine is going to be an integral part of that deal, but at the very least getting a good deal for one of the few nations in the world to voluntarily give up its nuclear arsenal, is something we should all be in support of.

robindch · 19-06-2015 01:52PM

Irish Praetorian wrote: »

I would say sanctions are having an effect.

Not really. The main driver of the Russian economy is the price of oil and that's what's driven the ruble's decline. Sanctions are limited and, finger in the air, not likely to be responsible for much more than ten percent of the decline in the ruble's value, and most of that is reputational and trust loss, not actual economic loss. I'd imagine that Putin's sanctions against himself (euro-area food products for example) caused a more noticeable economic effect than did EU and US sanctions. And of course, EU and US sanctions provide a ready hook upon which Putin can hang the blame for the economic crisis.

If the EU and US want to do some economic damage to Russia, they should kick it out of the SWIFT payment network. That will hurt, and the risk of that is not entirely unconnected with the Russian government's ongoing attempts to build its own payment networks - efforts only slightly undermined by the fact that nobody, not even the Russian government, trusts the Russian government as far as it can throw it.

And the EU can set up its own common energy purchase policy - something that it seems, finally, to be seriously considering. Given the highly variable rates charged to different EU countries, a policy like that has the potential to drill a hole the size of Siberia in Russian energy revenues.

Gatling · 19-06-2015 01:55PM

Wonder what will happen now the Russian economic downturn is taking effect .
How is Russia planning to support and bailout Greece and under what terms

Irish Praetorian · 19-06-2015 03:34PM

robindch wrote: »

Not really. The main driver of the Russian economy is the price of oil and that's what's driven the ruble's decline. Sanctions are limited and, finger in the air, not likely to be responsible for much more than ten percent of the decline in the ruble's value, and most of that is reputational and trust loss, not actual economic loss. I'd imagine that Putin's sanctions against himself (euro-area food products for example) caused a more noticeable economic effect than did EU and US sanctions. And of course, EU and US sanctions provide a ready hook upon which Putin can hang the blame for the economic crisis.

If the EU and US want to do some economic damage to Russia, they should kick it out of the SWIFT payment network. That will hurt, and the risk of that is not entirely unconnected with the Russian government's ongoing attempts to build its own payment networks - efforts only slightly undermined by the fact that nobody, not even the Russian government, trusts the Russian government as far as it can throw it.

And the EU can set up its own common energy purchase policy - something that it seems, finally, to be seriously considering. Given the highly variable rates charged to different EU countries, a policy like that has the potential to drill a hole the size of Siberia in Russian energy revenues.

I dare say one of the reasons for the precipitous decline in oil and gas prices has been the refusal of the Saudis to do what they did in the past and cut production, partly because every time they have done so in the past, they have lost market share. How much of this is to do with the Saudi desire to shut down new competitors like US shale gas production remains to be seen but nonetheless the implications for the Russian energy business are clearly negative. On top of this, the more direct impact of sanctions, namely a decline of between 25% and 50% in trade between Russia and various European countries, had made a bad situation worse.

Now disconnecting SWIFT is of course an option, but its a drum that can only be beaten once, and with other less savoury actors like China perfectly willing to set up an alternative to SWIFT should their interests demand it, cutting Russia off from the system is at this stage, a last resort.

And +1 for European Common Energy Policy, the previous strategy of Russia offering preferential rates to countries that tow their line in the EU has been shameful.

bilston · 19-06-2015 04:29PM

Not sure if it has been discussed here but I was reading on CNN last night that the US State Dept will announce the deployment of heavy artillery to the Baltic States next week. That seems like a major escalation if true. The Russians will inevitably retaliate so don't be surprised to see a few Russian subs popping up off the coast of Ireland and the UK in the coming weeks and months.

http://edition.cnn.com/2015/06/17/politics/russia-us-military-threats-rise-ukraine/index.html

BoJack Horseman · 19-06-2015 04:49PM

bilston wrote: »

Not sure if it has been discussed here but I was reading on CNN last night that the US State Dept will announce the deployment of heavy artillery to the Baltic States next week. That seems like a major escalation if true. The Russians will inevitably retaliate so don't be surprised to see a few Russian subs popping up off the coast of Ireland and the UK in the coming weeks and months.

http://edition.cnn.com/2015/06/17/politics/russia-us-military-threats-rise-ukraine/index.html

It was announced last week.

Its just 1 armoured brigade stretched across hundreds of miles from Estonia to Bulgaria.

A pin-prick in truth..

TomBtheGoat · 19-06-2015 05:07PM

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

It was announced last week.

Its just 1 armoured brigade stretched across hundreds of miles from Estonia to Bulgaria.

A pin-prick in truth..

And yet, it's still a breach of a promise that the United States made to the Russians when the Cold War ended.

Irish Praetorian · 19-06-2015 05:10PM

TomBtheGoat wrote: »

And yet, it's still a breach of a promise that the United States made to the Russians when the Cold War ended.

Where was that promise made? Who made it and when?

Gatling · 19-06-2015 05:13PM

5000 men .
A few M1 A1 abrams tanks
Strkyers
Heavy artillery.

Vs

Crimea 30,000 Russian troops
Thousands of tanks
Naval vessels
Attack helicopters
anti air
medium range missles

Accordingly to various sources
20,000 Russian troops in eastern Ukraine
Hundreds of tanks
armoured personall carriers
Heavy artillery
rockets
anti air
.
other sources 30-50,000 Russian troops on or near the Ukrainian border .

And they're getting upset about 5000 Americans scattered across several countries

BoJack Horseman · 19-06-2015 05:26PM

TomBtheGoat wrote: »

And yet, it's still a breach of a promise that the United States made to the Russians when the Cold War ended.

I believe there is something about not stationing permanently more than 5,000?...I'm not sure.

Either way, 4,000-ish men, spread over 6 nations, doesn't make much difference.

And let's not get into Russia's broken promises vis-a-vis respecting Ukrainian sovereignty.

Ukraine: As it happens.

Comments