April 2015 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium · 29-03-2015 2:41am #1

1. Predict the IMT, an average of five selected stations, which has averaged 8.6 C for the 30-yr period 1981 to 2010 (it was 8.0 C for 1961-90 and 8.2 for 1971-2000).

2. Predict the highest daily maximum at any reporting (met.ie) station.

3. Predict the lowest daily minimum at any reporting (met.ie) station.

4. Predict the monthly precip as a percentage of normal (for 11 reporting stations in met.ie Monthly Summary)

5. Predict the monthly sunshine as a percentage of normal (for 6 reporting stations in met.ie Monthly Summary)

6. Bonus -- Predict the maximum number of sunshine hours on Easter Sunday (5th April) at any of the six reporting stations as follows, Belmullet, Shannon, Valentia, Cork, Casement, Dublin. Name the station that you expect to record that maximum (hours and tenths of hours in the range 0.0 to 13.0 are possible).

Deadlines for entry ... you have until the end of the day on Wednesday 1st of April, to enter without penalty. The actual deadline is set at 0300h on Thursday 2nd of April. After that, it's five point penalties for each half-day late, 0300 to 1500h and 1500 to 0300h used to determine half days.

Enter in this thread, using this template:

Your name ______________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN _ HRS _ loc

Rameire already entered in the March thread ... when I figure my forecast out, I will post his along with mine.

mrskinner · 29-03-2015 10:28pm

. mrskinner_ IMT 8.7_MAX 16.7_ MIN -1.7_PRC 92.7_SUN 110.7_HRS 7.7_loc Cork

200motels · 30-03-2015 6:31pm

Your name _____200motels_________ IMT 8.8 _ MAX19.2 _ MIN -1.8 _ PRC 84 _ SUN 115_ HRS 8_ loc Dublin

Bsal · 31-03-2015 1:49am

Bsal ______________ 8.5 _ 17.9 _ -1.5 _ 93 _ 97 _ 5 _ Belmullet

jd · 31-03-2015 3:48am

JD ______________ 8.5 _ 20.4 _ -1.1 _ 95 _ 108 _ 6 _ Dublin

omicron · 31-03-2015 9:18am

omicron ______________ 9.0 _ 20.0 _ -2.5 _ 90 _ 105 _ 7.5 _ Casement

Jpmarn · 31-03-2015 9:50pm

Jpmarn ______________ 8.9_ 20.5_ -2.9_ 95_ 115_ 10.1_ Dublin

pauldry · 31-03-2015 10:53pm

pauldry______________ 7.9 17.8_ -2 103 101_ 9_dublin

John mac · 01-04-2015 6:21am

john mac______________ 8.6 _ 19.9 _ -2.1 _ 101 _ 110 _ 2 _ shannon

DOCARCH · 01-04-2015 6:25am

DOCARCH ______________ 8.2 _ 18.9 _ -2.3 _ 90 _ 105 _ 7.6 _ Dublin

lostinashford · 01-04-2015 8:31am

lostinashford IMT 8.3 MAX 19.6 MIN -1.8 PRC 95 SUN 108 HRS 7 Casement

Joe Public · 01-04-2015 4:42pm

Joe Public 8.9 _ 18.3 _ -3.6 _ 88 _ 128 _ 9 _ Shannon

Schadenfreudia · 01-04-2015 7:08pm

IMT 8.0
MAX 18.5
MIN (- 2.9)
PRC 100
SUN 100
HRS 7 Dublin

M.T. Cranium · 01-04-2015 8:03pm

Okay, so I have my forecast and here's Rameire who entered early in the March thread:

Rameire _________ 9.6 _ 20.2 _ -2.0 _ 91 _ 105 _ 6 Cork

MTCranium _______ 8.8 _ 21.0 _ -3.3 _ 85 _ 130 _ 11.2 Casement

kindredspirit · 01-04-2015 8:05pm

Kindred Spirit. _ 8.6 _ 18.5 _ -1.5 _ 92 _ 105 _ 7.6 _ Casement.

waterways · 01-04-2015 9:09pm

waterways______________ 8.6 _ 23 _ -2.9 _ 130 _ 90 _ 10.0 _ Tuskar Rock

Tae laidir · 01-04-2015 9:20pm

Tae laidir ______________ 8.2 _ 18.0 _ -3.4 _ 88 _ 110 _ 7.5 _ Shannon (or perhaps Rockall)

mickger844posts · 01-04-2015 9:21pm

mickger844posts______________ 9.3 _ 20.1 _ -1.2 _ 85 _ 120 _ 7 _ Dublin

sunflower3 · 01-04-2015 9:22pm

Sunflower3 ______________ 8.8 _ 19.2 _ -1.1 _ 108 _ 92 _ 6.3 _ Dublin

Harps · 01-04-2015 9:54pm

Harps______________ 8.2 _ 18.5 _ -2.6 _ 90 _ 115 _ 10.5 _ Dublin

Rikand · 02-04-2015 12:17am

Rikand _______ 9.0 ___ 20.0 ___ -2.5 ___ 90 ___ 120 ___ 10 ___ Dublin

dacogawa · 02-04-2015 12:30am

Dacogawa______________ 8.6 _ 22.5 _ -2.0 _ 86 _ 120 _ 9.5 _ Dublin

Lumi · 02-04-2015 12:29pm

Oops! Almost forgot

Lumi ______________ 8.5 _ 20.4 _ -2.8 _ 100 _ 100 _ 8 _ Dublin

dasa29 · 02-04-2015 9:06pm

Dasa29 ______________ 8.1 _ 18.0 _ -1.5 _ 95 _ 110 _ 8 _ belmullet

M.T. Cranium · 03-04-2015 4:07am

Table of forecasts for April 2015

FORECASTER _____________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN _ hrs sun 5th
________________________________________________________________

Rameire _________________9.6 _ 20.2 _ -2.0 _ 091 _ 105 __ 6.0 Cork
mickger844posts__________ 9.3 _ 20.1 _ -1.2 _ 085 _ 120 __ 7.0 Dublin
Rikand __________________9.0 _ 20.0 _ -2.5 _ 090 _ 120 __10.0 Dublin
omicron _________________9.0 _ 20.0 _ -2.5 _ 090 _ 105 __ 7.5 Casement
Jpmarn _________________ 8.9 _ 20.5 _ -2.9 _ 095 _ 115 __10.1 Dublin
Joe Public _______________ 8.9 _ 18.3 _ -3.6 _ 088 _ 128 __ 9.0 Shannon
MTCranium ______________ 8.8 _ 21.0 _ -3.3 _ 085 _ 130 __11.2 Casement
Sunflower3 ______________ 8.8 _ 19.2 _ -1.1 _ 108 _ 092 __ 6.3 Dublin
200motels_______________ 8.8 _ 19.2 _ -1.8 _ 084 _ 115 __ 8.0 Dublin
mrskinner _______________ 8.7 _ 16.7 _ -1.7 _ 093 _ 111 __ 7.7 Cork
waterways_______________ 8.6 _ 23.0 _ -2.9 _ 130 _ 090 __10.0 Tuskar Rock
Dacogawa________________8.6 _ 22.5 _ -2.0 _ 086 _ 120 __ 9.5 Dublin

Con Sensus ______________8.6 _ 19.4 _ -2.0 _ 093 _ 108 __ 7.7 Dublin

john mac________________ 8.6 _ 19.9 _ -2.1 _ 101 _ 110 __ 2.0 Shannon
Kindred Spirit ____________ 8.6 _ 18.5 _ -1.5 _ 092 _ 105 __ 7.6 Casement
JD _____________________ 8.5 _ 20.4 _ -1.1 _ 095 _ 108 __ 6.0 Dublin
Lumi ___ (-5) ____________ 8.5 _ 20.4 _ -2.8 _ 100 _ 100 __ 8.0 Dublin
Bsal ____________________ 8.5 _ 17.9 _ -1.5 _ 093 _ 097 __ 5.0 Belmullet
lostinashford _____________ 8.3 _ 19.6 _ -1.8 _ 095 _ 108 __ 7.0 Casement
DOCARCH _______________ 8.2 _ 18.9 _ -2.3 _ 090 _ 105 __ 7.6 Dublin
Harps___________________ 8.2 _ 18.5 _ -2.6 _ 090 _ 115 __10.5 Dublin
Tae laidir ________________ 8.2 _ 18.0 _ -3.4 _ 088 _ 110 __ 7.5 Shannon
Dasa29 __ (-10) __________ 8.1 _ 18.0 _ -1.5 _ 095 _ 110 __ 8.0 Belmullet
Schadenfreudia ___________ 8.0 _ 18.5 _ -2.9 _ 100 _ 100 __ 7.0 Dublin
pauldry__________________ 7.9 _ 17.8 _ -2.0 _ 103 _ 101 __ 9.0 Dublin
__________________________________________________________

The 24 forecasters on average foresee near normal temperatures, and a somewhat dry and sunny month for April 2015. There seems to be mainly optimistic views on sunshine for Easter Sunday and the preferred location was Dublin (12 of 24) with Casement picked by 4, Shannon by 3, Belmullet by 2, Cork by 2 and while Valentia was not selected, Tuskar Rock got a vote so maybe that's one for Valentia?

* goes off to find Tuskar Rock

(any further entries will be added)

pauldry · 06-04-2015 2:42pm

10.5 hours in valent

Sunniest

M.T. Cranium · 08-04-2015 4:29pm

After one week ...

IMT 9.1 C

PRC 68%

SUN 118%

max could be 18.7, based on yesterday's reports?

M.T. Cranium · 08-04-2015 5:56pm

Also, confirmed the bonus was 10.5h at Valentia as mentioned above, and as Tuskar Rock is apparently in Wexford, that leaves nobody (the opposite of Con Sensus) with the location bonus. In other words, score will be all based on the numbers.

So the closest three with the ten points would be Harps (no error at all), Jpmarn (0.4 out) and a tie for Rikand and waterways at 0.5 out. That means next two get nine points, which would be MTC (0.7 high, the only forecast too optimistic in the group) and dacogawa who was 1.0 hours low. From there on, will score your entry by reducing hours (rounded off) by one. So for Pauldry and Joe Public, it's 9-1=8. And so on and so forth. The usual method was going to get complicated by too many ties so this approximates and makes things easier for MTC.

Bsal · 08-04-2015 7:39pm

Oak park 18.9C yesterday

Tae laidir · 09-04-2015 12:43pm

Phoenix Park 19.0 yesterday.

Bsal · 09-04-2015 3:55pm

Tae laidir wrote: »

Phoenix Park 19.0 yesterday.

18.9C to be exact

April 2015 Boards forecast contest

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