April 2015 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

1. Predict the IMT, an average of five selected stations, which has averaged 8.6 C for the 30-yr period 1981 to 2010 (it was 8.0 C for 1961-90 and 8.2 for 1971-2000).

2. Predict the highest daily maximum at any reporting (met.ie) station.

3. Predict the lowest daily minimum at any reporting (met.ie) station.

4. Predict the monthly precip as a percentage of normal (for 11 reporting stations in met.ie Monthly Summary)

5. Predict the monthly sunshine as a percentage of normal (for 6 reporting stations in met.ie Monthly Summary)

6. Bonus -- Predict the maximum number of sunshine hours on Easter Sunday (5th April) at any of the six reporting stations as follows, Belmullet, Shannon, Valentia, Cork, Casement, Dublin. Name the station that you expect to record that maximum (hours and tenths of hours in the range 0.0 to 13.0 are possible).

Deadlines for entry ... you have until the end of the day on Wednesday 1st of April, to enter without penalty. The actual deadline is set at 0300h on Thursday 2nd of April. After that, it's five point penalties for each half-day late, 0300 to 1500h and 1500 to 0300h used to determine half days.


Enter in this thread, using this template:

Your name ______________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN _ HRS _ loc

Rameire already entered in the March thread ... when I figure my forecast out, I will post his along with mine.

mrskinner

. mrskinner_ IMT 8.7_MAX 16.7_ MIN -1.7_PRC 92.7_SUN 110.7_HRS 7.7_loc Cork

200motels

Your name _____200motels_________ IMT 8.8 _ MAX19.2 _ MIN -1.8 _ PRC 84 _ SUN 115_ HRS 8_ loc Dublin

Bsal

Bsal ______________ 8.5 _ 17.9 _ -1.5 _ 93 _ 97 _ 5 _ Belmullet

jd

JD ______________ 8.5 _ 20.4 _ -1.1 _ 95 _ 108 _ 6 _ Dublin

omicron

omicron ______________ 9.0 _ 20.0 _ -2.5 _ 90 _ 105 _ 7.5 _ Casement

Jpmarn

Jpmarn ______________ 8.9_ 20.5_ -2.9_ 95_ 115_ 10.1_ Dublin

pauldry

pauldry______________ 7.9 17.8_ -2 103 101_ 9_dublin

John mac

john mac______________ 8.6 _ 19.9 _ -2.1 _ 101 _ 110 _ 2 _ shannon

DOCARCH

DOCARCH ______________ 8.2 _ 18.9 _ -2.3 _ 90 _ 105 _ 7.6 _ Dublin

lostinashford

lostinashford IMT 8.3 MAX 19.6 MIN -1.8 PRC 95 SUN 108 HRS 7 Casement

Joe Public

Joe Public 8.9 _ 18.3 _ -3.6 _ 88 _ 128 _ 9 _ Shannon

Schadenfreudia

IMT 8.0
MAX 18.5
MIN (- 2.9)
PRC 100
SUN 100
HRS 7 Dublin

M.T. Cranium

Okay, so I have my forecast and here's Rameire who entered early in the March thread:

Rameire _________ 9.6 _ 20.2 _ -2.0 _ 91 _ 105 _ 6 Cork

MTCranium _______ 8.8 _ 21.0 _ -3.3 _ 85 _ 130 _ 11.2 Casement

kindredspirit

Kindred Spirit. _ 8.6 _ 18.5 _ -1.5 _ 92 _ 105 _ 7.6 _ Casement.

waterways

waterways______________ 8.6 _ 23 _ -2.9 _ 130 _ 90 _ 10.0 _ Tuskar Rock

Tae laidir

Tae laidir ______________ 8.2 _ 18.0 _ -3.4 _ 88 _ 110 _ 7.5 _ Shannon (or perhaps Rockall)

mickger844posts

mickger844posts______________ 9.3 _ 20.1 _ -1.2 _ 85 _ 120 _ 7 _ Dublin

sunflower3

Sunflower3 ______________ 8.8 _ 19.2 _ -1.1 _ 108 _ 92 _ 6.3 _ Dublin

Harps

Harps______________ 8.2 _ 18.5 _ -2.6 _ 90 _ 115 _ 10.5 _ Dublin

Rikand

Rikand _______ 9.0 ___ 20.0 ___ -2.5 ___ 90 ___ 120 ___ 10 ___ Dublin

dacogawa

Dacogawa______________ 8.6 _ 22.5 _ -2.0 _ 86 _ 120 _ 9.5 _ Dublin

Lumi

Oops! Almost forgot

Lumi ______________ 8.5 _ 20.4 _ -2.8 _ 100 _ 100 _ 8 _ Dublin

dasa29

Dasa29 ______________ 8.1 _ 18.0 _ -1.5 _ 95 _ 110 _ 8 _ belmullet

M.T. Cranium

Table of forecasts for April 2015

FORECASTER _____________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN _ hrs sun 5th
________________________________________________________________

Rameire _________________9.6 _ 20.2 _ -2.0 _ 091 _ 105 __ 6.0 Cork
mickger844posts__________ 9.3 _ 20.1 _ -1.2 _ 085 _ 120 __ 7.0 Dublin
Rikand __________________9.0 _ 20.0 _ -2.5 _ 090 _ 120 __10.0 Dublin
omicron _________________9.0 _ 20.0 _ -2.5 _ 090 _ 105 __ 7.5 Casement
Jpmarn _________________ 8.9 _ 20.5 _ -2.9 _ 095 _ 115 __10.1 Dublin
Joe Public _______________ 8.9 _ 18.3 _ -3.6 _ 088 _ 128 __ 9.0 Shannon
MTCranium ______________ 8.8 _ 21.0 _ -3.3 _ 085 _ 130 __11.2 Casement
Sunflower3 ______________ 8.8 _ 19.2 _ -1.1 _ 108 _ 092 __ 6.3 Dublin
200motels_______________ 8.8 _ 19.2 _ -1.8 _ 084 _ 115 __ 8.0 Dublin
mrskinner _______________ 8.7 _ 16.7 _ -1.7 _ 093 _ 111 __ 7.7 Cork
waterways_______________ 8.6 _ 23.0 _ -2.9 _ 130 _ 090 __10.0 Tuskar Rock
Dacogawa________________8.6 _ 22.5 _ -2.0 _ 086 _ 120 __ 9.5 Dublin

Con Sensus ______________8.6 _ 19.4 _ -2.0 _ 093 _ 108 __ 7.7 Dublin

john mac________________ 8.6 _ 19.9 _ -2.1 _ 101 _ 110 __ 2.0 Shannon
Kindred Spirit ____________ 8.6 _ 18.5 _ -1.5 _ 092 _ 105 __ 7.6 Casement
JD _____________________ 8.5 _ 20.4 _ -1.1 _ 095 _ 108 __ 6.0 Dublin
Lumi ___ (-5) ____________ 8.5 _ 20.4 _ -2.8 _ 100 _ 100 __ 8.0 Dublin
Bsal ____________________ 8.5 _ 17.9 _ -1.5 _ 093 _ 097 __ 5.0 Belmullet
lostinashford _____________ 8.3 _ 19.6 _ -1.8 _ 095 _ 108 __ 7.0 Casement
DOCARCH _______________ 8.2 _ 18.9 _ -2.3 _ 090 _ 105 __ 7.6 Dublin
Harps___________________ 8.2 _ 18.5 _ -2.6 _ 090 _ 115 __10.5 Dublin
Tae laidir ________________ 8.2 _ 18.0 _ -3.4 _ 088 _ 110 __ 7.5 Shannon
Dasa29 __ (-10) __________ 8.1 _ 18.0 _ -1.5 _ 095 _ 110 __ 8.0 Belmullet
Schadenfreudia ___________ 8.0 _ 18.5 _ -2.9 _ 100 _ 100 __ 7.0 Dublin
pauldry__________________ 7.9 _ 17.8 _ -2.0 _ 103 _ 101 __ 9.0 Dublin
__________________________________________________________

The 24 forecasters on average foresee near normal temperatures, and a somewhat dry and sunny month for April 2015. There seems to be mainly optimistic views on sunshine for Easter Sunday and the preferred location was Dublin (12 of 24) with Casement picked by 4, Shannon by 3, Belmullet by 2, Cork by 2 and while Valentia was not selected, Tuskar Rock got a vote so maybe that's one for Valentia?

* goes off to find Tuskar Rock

(any further entries will be added)

pauldry

10.5 hours in valent

Sunniest

M.T. Cranium

After one week ...

IMT 9.1 C

PRC 68%

SUN 118%

max could be 18.7, based on yesterday's reports?

M.T. Cranium

Also, confirmed the bonus was 10.5h at Valentia as mentioned above, and as Tuskar Rock is apparently in Wexford, that leaves nobody (the opposite of Con Sensus) with the location bonus. In other words, score will be all based on the numbers.

So the closest three with the ten points would be Harps (no error at all), Jpmarn (0.4 out) and a tie for Rikand and waterways at 0.5 out. That means next two get nine points, which would be MTC (0.7 high, the only forecast too optimistic in the group) and dacogawa who was 1.0 hours low. From there on, will score your entry by reducing hours (rounded off) by one. So for Pauldry and Joe Public, it's 9-1=8. And so on and so forth. The usual method was going to get complicated by too many ties so this approximates and makes things easier for MTC.

Bsal

Oak park 18.9C yesterday

Tae laidir

Phoenix Park 19.0 yesterday.

Bsal

Tae laidir wrote: »

Phoenix Park 19.0 yesterday.

18.9C to be exact

Joe Public

Is that Con I saw this morning just popping his head out above Scotland?

M.T. Cranium

-1.8 C at Markree on morning of 13th.

Will edit in a report on week two and current values later today.

M.T. Cranium

Here are those week two updates ...

IMT has stayed relatively steady, 9.0 on the week and also now for the month so far.

PRC has jumped up to 88% based on the 109% average for week two, but I notice that it stayed quite dry in the southeast where stations were closer to 25%.

SUN also increased to 128% thanks to a second week 139% average.

As far as I am aware, MAX so far 18.9 and MIN -1.8 C.

M.T. Cranium

Now for the week three updates ...

IMT is fairly steady at 8.9 C (probably 9.0 after today)

PRC has fallen to 61% as the third week was almost totally dry (7% of normal with several stations at zero).

SUN is probably going to threaten some monthly records at this rate, the week managed 181% of normal (!) and that brings the month to about 146% of normal.

MAX so far 19.4, MIN -1.8

but that MAX may have been edged out today.

Joe Public

20.2C for Valentia yesterday

Joe Public

Newport Furnace has appeared with a high of 21.3C for yesterday.

pauldry

Yup mayo is a bit furnace like in a southeasterly

Great day for golf in mulranny though.

M.T. Cranium

Thinking about a bonus question for May, any events on weekends (not 2-3 May, too early) that we could use as a background?

Will start up the May thread on Monday evening possibly.

The met.ie data not updating but I am estimating IMT is 8.9 C at this precise moment and may fall a few tenths, maybe 8.6 will be the finish. I was reading elsewhere that Casement hit -3.6 C last night and would expect some similar or even lower readings but scores are pretty much protected now by minimum progression if that value is overtaken. Joe Public (I notice) has that -3.6 for his forecast. I am optimistic about beating Con Sensus this month anyway.

mrskinner

The Irish Open Golf Championship starts Thursday May 28th at the Royal County Down Golf Club.

Listowel Writers Week starts Friday May 29th.

jd

Referenda are on May 22nd.

mrskinner

Eurovision Final May 23rd.

jd

mrskinner wrote: »

Eurovision Final May 23rd.

As is the count too!

M.T. Cranium

The official numbers may be slow to reach us, for two reasons -- there have been some recent days with missing data, and with the Bank Holiday weekend starting on the 2nd, it could be Tuesday 5th before the MS is published. OTOH, we have a fairly good idea of the numbers from our tracking, so will issue these provisional scores and then update them as we get some official numbers. The bonus scoring is already final.



FORECASTER _____________IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN_Bonus ___ TOTALS
________________________________________________________________

Estimated values ___________ 8.6_21.3_-4.0_085_130__10.5


Rameire _________________15 _ 13*_ 10*_ 13 _ 05 __ 05 ______ 61
mickger844posts__________ 18 _ 13*_ 04*_ 15 _ 08 __ 06 ______ 64
Rikand __________________21 _ 12*_ 12*_ 13 _ 08 __ 10 ______ 76
omicron _________________21 _ 12*_ 12*_ 13 _ 05 __ 07 ______ 70
Jpmarn _________________ 22 _ 16*_ 14*_ 12 _ 07 __ 10 ______ 81
Joe Public _______________ 22 _ 04*_ 18*_ 14 _ 10 __ 08 ______ 76
MTCranium ______________ 23 _ 18*_ 15*_ 15 _ 10 __ 09 ______ 90
Sunflower3 ______________ 23 _ 08*_ 02*_ 07 _ 02 __ 05 ______ 47
200motels_______________ 23 _ 08*_ 08*_ 15 _ 07 __ 07 ______ 68
mrskinner _______________ 24 _ 00 _ 08*_ 12 _ 06 __ 07 ______ 57
waterways_______________ 25 _ 09*_ 14*_ 00 _ 02 __ 10 ______ 60
Dacogawa________________25 _ 13*_ 10*_ 15 _ 08 __ 09 ______ 80

Con Sensus ______________25 _ 08*_ 10*_ 12 _ 06 __ 07 ______ 68

john mac________________ 25 _ 10*_ 11*_ 10 _ 06 __ 01 ______ 63
Kindred Spirit ____________ 25 _ 06*_ 06*_ 13 _ 05 __ 07 ______ 62
JD _____________________ 24 _ 14*_ 02*_ 12 _ 06 __ 05 ______ 63
Lumi ___ (-5) ____________ 24 _ 14*_ 13*_ 10 _ 04 __ 07 __ 72-5=67
Bsal ____________________ 24 _ 02*_ 06*_ 12 _ 03 __ 04 ______ 51
lostinashford _____________ 22 _ 09*_ 08*_ 12 _ 06 __ 06 ______ 63
DOCARCH _______________ 21 _ 07*_ 10*_ 13 _ 05 __ 07 ______ 63
Harps___________________ 21 _ 06* _ 12*_ 13 _ 07 __ 10 ______ 69
Tae laidir ________________ 21 _ 03*_ 16*_ 14 _ 06 __ 07 ______ 67
Dasa29 __ (-10) __________ 20 _ 03*_ 06*_ 12 _ 06 __ 07 __ 54-10=44
Schadenfreudia ___________ 19 _ 06*_ 14*_ 10 _ 04 __ 06 ______ 59
pauldry__________________ 18 _ 01*_ 10*_ 09 _ 04 __ 08 ______ 50


For now, I will leave these scores unsorted because it's easier to amend them. The uncertainty is mostly with the IMT, PRC and these could change by 2-3. The MAX and MIN were both adjusted by minimum progression. Actually the lower scores are more generous changes than the higher scores but this is often how this feature works out. In general, looks like a high scoring month and Con Sensus did not gain on many players.

Schadenfreudia

Thank God for Pauldry

Joe Public

Well done MTC on your unofficial score.

pauldry

Schadenfreudia wrote: »

Thank God for Pauldry

Thank God for Dasa29

M.T. Cranium

Thank Con Sensus for all of you.

M.T. Cranium

Final scoring for April 2015

The monthly summary has confirmed most of the estimated values, IMT 8.4 C, MAX was 21.3 at Newport on 23rd, MIN was -4.0 at Mullingar on 27th. PRC was 82% of normal rainfall and SUN came in even higher than my estimate (of 130%) at 147% of normal. That required a slight change to scoring but as it turns out only two scores dropped by one point. The bonus answer was 10.5 hours at Valentia where location became a non-factor in scoring as nobody guessed that.

FORECASTER _____________IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN_Bonus ___ TOTALS
________________________________________________________________

Confirmed values _________ 8.4_21.3_-4.0_082_147__10.5

MTCranium ______________ 21 _ 18*_ 15*_ 14 _ 09*__ 09 ______ 86
Jpmarn _________________ 20 _ 16*_ 14*_ 11 _ 07*__ 10 ______ 78
Dacogawa________________23 _ 13*_ 10*_ 14 _ 08*__ 09 ______ 77
Rikand __________________19 _ 12*_ 12*_ 12 _ 08*__ 10 ______ 73
Joe Public _______________ 20 _ 04*_ 18*_ 13 _ 09*__ 08 ______ 72
Harps___________________ 23 _ 06*_ 12*_ 12 _ 07*__ 10 ______ 70
Tae laidir ________________23 _ 03*_ 16*_ 13 _ 06*__ 07 ______ 68
omicron _________________19 _ 12*_ 12*_ 12 _ 05*__ 07 ______ 67
Lumi ___ (-5) ____________ 24 _ 14*_ 13*_ 09 _ 04*__ 07 __ 71-5=66
200motels_______________ 21 _ 08*_ 08*_ 14 _ 07*__ 07 ______ 65

Con Sensus ______________23 _ 08*_ 10*_ 11 _ 06*__ 07 ______ 65

lostinashford _____________ 24 _ 09*_ 08*_ 11 _ 06*__ 06 ______ 64
DOCARCH _______________ 23 _ 07*_ 10*_ 12 _ 05*__ 07 ______ 64
JD _____________________ 24 _ 14*_ 02*_ 11 _ 06*__ 05 ______ 62
mickger844posts__________ 16 _ 13*_ 04*_ 14 _ 08*__ 06 ______ 61
john mac________________ 23 _ 10*_ 11*_ 09 _ 06*__ 01 ______ 60
Schadenfreudia ___________ 21 _ 06*_ 14*_ 09 _ 04*__ 06 ______ 60
Kindred Spirit ____________ 23 _ 06*_ 06*_ 12 _ 05*__ 07 ______ 59
Rameire _________________13 _ 13*_ 10*_ 12 _ 05*__ 05 ______ 58
waterways_______________ 23 _ 09*_ 14*_ 00 _ 02*__ 10 ______ 58
mrskinner _______________ 22 _ 00 _ 08*_ 11 _ 06*__ 07 ______ 54
pauldry__________________20 _ 01*_ 10*_ 08 _ 04*__ 08 ______ 51
Bsal ____________________ 24 _ 02*_ 06*_ 11 _ 03*__ 04 ______ 50
Dasa29 __ (-10) __________ 22 _ 03*_ 06*_ 11 _ 06*__ 07 __ 55-10=45
Sunflower3 ______________ 21 _ 08*_ 02*_ 06 _ 02*__ 05 ______ 44
____________________________________________________

* minimum progression scoring for MAX and MIN as well as for SUN where all scores except the top two remain the same as in the provisional due to the various ties, the rule being that for categories out of ten points the scores must be at least 9,9,8,8,7,7 etc. The results of doing that dropped the two high scores that were previously 10, but left most of the next dozen or so unchanged, then there would have been some odd major jumps between groups that were very close in their predictions so I just left the old scores for all as an equitable compromise.

Annual table to be posted soon.

M.T. Cranium

Annual scoring update Jan to Apr 2015

April scores are now confirmed and so here's the updated annual scoring summary.


FORECASTER ____________ Jan _ Feb_ Mar _ Apr___ 2015 Total __ best 3/4

Jpmarn __________________64 _ 57 _ 71 _ 78 ___ 270 ________ 213

Con Sensus ______________ 70 _ 71 _ 63 _ 65 ___ 269 ________ 206

Lumi ____________________68 _ 72 _ 59 _ 66 ___ 265 ________ 206
Rikand __________________ 84 _ 59 _ 48 _ 73 ___ 264 ________ 216
jd ______________________ 72 _ 61 _ 68 _ 62 ___ 263 ________ 202
DOCARCH ________________75 _ 79 _ 40 _ 64 ___ 258 ________ 218
mickger844posts __________ 50 _ 90 _ 53 _ 61 ___ 254 ________ 204
Bsal ____________________ 77 _ 55 _ 68 _ 50 ___ 250 ________ 200
dacogawa ________________48 _ 62 _ 63 _ 77 ___ 250 ________ 202
Joe Public ________________69 _ 42 _ 64 _ 72 ___ 247 ________ 205
John mac ________________ 73 _ 55 _ 58 _ 60 ___ 246 ________ 191
M.T. Cranium _____________68 _ 17 _ 71 _ 86 ___ 242 ________ 225
Schadenfreudia ___________ 61 _ 67 _ 53 _ 60 ___ 241 ________ 188
sunflower3 _______________69 _ 61 _ 59 _ 44 ___ 233 ________ 189
kindredspirit ______________63 _ 57 _ 52 _ 59 ___ 231 ________ 179
Harps ___________________ 69 _ 57 _ 34 _ 70 ___ 230 ________ 196
dasa29 __________________47 _ 69 _ 67 _ 45 ___ 228 ________ 181
omicron _________________ 41 _ 77 _ 40 _ 67 ___ 225 ________ 185
Pauldry __________________51 _ 48 _ 70 _ 51 ___ 220 ________ 172
MrSkinner ________________--- _ 71 _ 85 _ 54 ___ 210 ________ 210
Tae laidir ________________ 33 _ 60 _ 46 _ 68 ___ 207 ________ 174
rameire __________________55 _ 40 _ 46 _ 58 ___ 199 ________ 159
waterways _______________ --- _ 70 _ 58 _ 58 ___ 186 ________ 186
lostinashford _____________ 56 _ --- _ 53 _ 64 ___ 173 ________ 173
200motels _______________ 30 _ --- _ 59 _ 65 ___ 154 ________ 154
delw ____________________48 _ --- _ 61 _ --- ___ 109
blue5000 ________________ 45 _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 45
BLIZZARD7 ______________ --- _ 31 _ --- _ --- ___ 31
__________________________________________________________

In the final column you can compare your scores as they might be trending towards the eventual outcome where it's best ten out of twelve (Boards Award), this is particularly true for those who have missed one month so far. In that category, five of us have managed to edge ahead of Con Sensus, in the total score (MTC Award) only Jpmarn has a slight lead over Con but there are quite a few very close behind.

M.T. Cranium

For the benefit of MrSkinner who joined in February, take note that you are really in fifth place in the main contest rather than way down the table as it now appears. Later in the year I change the table structure so that the "best x out of x+1" part evolves into best x out of x+2 and you get a better picture of how the scores compare towards the eventual best 10 out of 12. Also, strictly speaking the best two out of four could be compared at this point. You are just a point behind two other entrants in that measure. Missing a month means very little except that you only have one score to drop. I think I've already dropped one for certain so I'm in the same situation. Some of the other higher scores probably have two blanks to use up later.