Quotas gone, what will be different?

blue5000 · 24-03-2015 12:04PM #1

It's the biggest change to Irish farming in the last 30 years. I'm no Spring chicken and I remember quotas coming in back in 1984, now what changes do you think will happen?
NZ had the same amount of dairy cows in 1984 as we had, now they have 5x as much, will the same thing happen here? How will it affect your farm?

_Brian · 24-03-2015 12:43PM

More cows are a dead cert throughout the country, the mistake is so many lads think more cows will make them profitable. Farmers not making sufficient money with what they have need to be careful taking on more cows thinking this is the solution. My fear is soo many will become busy fools.

whelan2 · 24-03-2015 12:57PM

think the biggest challenge will be to get labour to work on dairy farms, hard enough now as it is

Capercaillie · 24-03-2015 01:57PM

More cows, less hedgerows/scrub, increased pollution, less wildlife, more farmers in debt after expansion, less time off for farmers.

einn32 · 24-03-2015 02:13PM

Capercaillie wrote: »

More cows, less hedgerows/scrub, increased pollution, less wildlife, more farmers in debt after expansion, less time off for farmers.

I wouldn't agree with more pollution and less hedgerows. It's too strict here due to EU regulations. The repercussions for your business are huge if you are caught polluting.I think most farmers are actually considerate about maintaining the environment. There is less wildlife currently due to the change in farming practice in the last 30 years among other things.

Yes they are always going to be repercussions to it but anyone with a bit of drive and good farming practice has to see it as an opportunity.

My worry would centre on what the EU could come up with in new environmental legislation, especially greenhouse gases.

Nettleman · 24-03-2015 02:18PM

More cows, more meal bills, more fertiliser bills, more vets bill, more vat for the state, more milking machines, parlours, sheds, more money lent out by banks, more activity at marks for boney bull calves that nobody can put flesh on, more cheap dairy beef for the factories, and within 5 years, when we all cop on, more farms repossessed by banks. More for everyone, except the farmer.

Capercaillie · 24-03-2015 02:30PM

einn32 wrote: »

I wouldn't agree with more pollution and less hedgerows. It's too strict here due to EU regulations. The repercussions for your business are huge if you are caught polluting.I think most farmers are actually considerate about maintaining the environment. There is less wildlife currently due to the change in farming practice in the last 30 years among other things.

Yes they are always going to be repercussions to it but anyone with a bit of drive and good farming practice has to see it as an opportunity.

My worry would centre on what the EU could come up with in new environmental legislation, especially greenhouse gases.

There is widespread hedgerow destruction going on now. A lot of mature trees being removed from hedges and hedges trimmed/hacked back to near the ground. Hedgerows being removed and "replaced", the replaced hedges often of less quality (less species). The drive for intensification is driving this.
When the dairy herd mushrooms in size even with increases in farming infrastructure it will lead to increased pollution. More tyres/more punctures.

farmerjj · 24-03-2015 02:31PM

God this is a fairly depressing thread so far, nodody knows what's going to happen, we can guess alright but that's all.

degetme · 24-03-2015 02:34PM

farmerjj wrote: »

God this is a fairly depressing thread so far, nodody knows what's going to happen, we can guess alright but that's all.

Bigger milk cheque:-)

Greengrass1 · 24-03-2015 02:34PM

Survival of the fittest.

Capercaillie there is a difference between hedgerow destruction and tidying up a farm.

mahoney_j · 24-03-2015 02:34PM

Very pesemetic lads I see big opportunities to push yourself ,your land and your cows to max potential to increase your bet worth.no worries bout watching your milk supply v quota at drying off or through the spring.i for one say bring it on hopefully we'll all plough on and pull through but no point worrying bout what ur neighbours think or things outside ur control control what's inside ur own gate and leave everyone else worry about themselves

mf240 · 24-03-2015 02:38PM

Capercaillie wrote: »

More cows, less hedgerows/scrub, increased pollution, less wildlife, more farmers in debt after expansion, less time off for farmers.

If the cows stating eating the hedges your overstocked.

darragh_haven · 24-03-2015 02:51PM

mahoney_j wrote: »

Very pesemetic lads I see big opportunities to push yourself ,your land and your cows to max potential to increase your bet worth.no worries bout watching your milk supply v quota at drying off or through the spring.i for one say bring it on hopefully we'll all plough on and pull through but no point worrying bout what ur neighbours think or things outside ur control control what's inside ur own gate and leave everyone else worry about themselves

A fella i went to Ag College with 16 years ago, who took over his farm from his dad at 20, said he sees it being this way for 2 or 3 years, and then Dairy farmers will be like a junkie who has got his first few hits free...... then he has to "pay the man."
He doesnt know who or what "the Man" will be (suggested it could be Banks, Processors, Co-ops, or a unkonown unkown), but he's sure as hell that no matter what expansion or efficency the farmer does, that "the Man" will take fat while the farmer will still just make a normal living.
He rekoned that Quota were good for at least 70% of dairy farmers. A lot on boards seem to be in the other 30%.

Saying that, he said he's a happy farmer. and then asked me if id contract rear his calves & heifers......:rolleyes:

AntrimGlens · 24-03-2015 03:01PM

blue5000 wrote: »

It's the biggest change to Irish farming in the last 30 years. I'm no Spring chicken and I remember quotas coming in back in 1984, now what changes do you think will happen?
NZ had the same amount of dairy cows in 1984 as we had, now they have 5x as much, will the same thing happen here? How will it affect your farm?

As long as it doesn't go too much the way it has up here with cows housed AYR and zero grazers being the new toy for everyone. Working in a parlour for the pleasure of paying the merchants, the bank and the machinery dealers, whilst there's serious disatisfaction with their co-op.

Panch18 · 24-03-2015 03:35PM

darragh_haven wrote: »

A fella i went to Ag College with 16 years ago, who took over his farm from his dad at 20, said he sees it being this way for 2 or 3 years, and then Dairy farmers will be like a junkie who has got his first few hits free...... then he has to "pay the man."
He doesnt know who or what "the Man" will be (suggested it could be Banks, Processors, Co-ops, or a unkonown unkown), but he's sure as hell that no matter what expansion or efficency the farmer does, that "the Man" will take fat while the farmer will still just make a normal living.
He rekoned that Quota were good for at least 70% of dairy farmers. A lot on boards seem to be in the other 30%.

Saying that, he said he's a happy farmer. and then asked me if id contract rear his calves & heifers......:rolleyes:

The quota probably protected the vast majority of dairy farmers in Ireland - even though they didn't know it. It will certainly be interesting to see how it develops over the next few years - but I think it's safe to say that most lads will have to milk more cows and work harder without being a whole lot better off for it. I think the only good thing about quota removal is that if you want to increase you can, there is some freedom, but I don't think the majority of farmers will be any better off - and I think we are going to see an awful lot more lads going bust and having the land sold beneath them

With regards to what we are doing - we will actually be selling a few cows in the next few weeks - 153 calved down this year and its a few too many so we will bring that back to 140. spent the last 7 or 8 years building cow numbers (kept a few too many heifers one year) and expanding so now its time for consolidation

We have options open to us - we could set up another dairy farm on the beef farm and milk another 150 cows - but you'd have to ask yourself why would you bother, it would cost a small fortune to set the beef farm up as dairy - infrastructure - and how much better off would we be? We'd actually be a lot worse off and have to meet bank payments for the next 15 years and have nearly twice the amount of work - it doesn't make sense

So our objective over the next 5 years is to maximise the potential of our 140. we have always had a long dry period, we'll cut that back and we'll push them a little more. Our fertility, solids and grass are all at a high level already so not much we can do on that side

Milking parlour paid for this year - slurry storage will be sorted by end of the summer as well. If we can't make money out of 140 cows then they'll get the road and we'll go all beef - too much work in the cows to tolerate not making money from them

solwhit12 · 24-03-2015 04:11PM

Panch18 wrote: »

The quota probably protected the vast majority of dairy farmers in Ireland - even though they didn't know it. It will certainly be interesting to see how it develops over the next few years - but I think it's safe to say that most lads will have to milk more cows and work harder without being a whole lot better off for it. I think the only good thing about quota removal is that if you want to increase you can, there is some freedom, but I don't think the majority of farmers will be any better off - and I think we are going to see an awful lot more lads going bust and having the land sold beneath them

With regards to what we are doing - we will actually be selling a few cows in the next few weeks - 153 calved down this year and its a few too many so we will bring that back to 140. spent the last 7 or 8 years building cow numbers (kept a few too many heifers one year) and expanding so now its time for consolidation

We have options open to us - we could set up another dairy farm on the beef farm and milk another 150 cows - but you'd have to ask yourself why would you bother, it would cost a small fortune to set the beef farm up as dairy - infrastructure - and how much better off would we be? We'd actually be a lot worse off and have to meet bank payments for the next 15 years and have nearly twice the amount of work - it doesn't make sense

So our objective over the next 5 years is to maximise the potential of our 140. we have always had a long dry period, we'll cut that back and we'll push them a little more. Our fertility, solids and grass are all at a high level already so not much we can do on that side

Milking parlour paid for this year - slurry storage will be sorted by end of the summer as well. If we can't make money out of 140 cows then they'll get the road and we'll go all beef - too much work in the cows to tolerate not making money from them

Spot on, quotas had there drawbacks but apart from 1 bad year it has protected price to a decent level. By some lads talk you were swear the were missing out on huge money with the quotas there but we will find out if that is the case.

Kovu · 24-03-2015 04:20PM

Have a bit of cop on lads. Idiotic posts deleted.

It's a very good thread, don't spoil it.

einn32 · 24-03-2015 04:22PM

Kovu wrote: »

Have a bit of cop on lads. Idiotic posts deleted.

It's a very good thread, don't spoil it.

They wanted to bring quotas back??

Kovu · 24-03-2015 04:24PM

einn32 wrote: »

They wanted to bring quotas back??

:D

Greengrass1 · 24-03-2015 04:24PM

solwhit12 wrote: »

Spot on, quotas had there drawbacks but apart from 1 bad year it has protected price to a decent level. By some lads talk you were swear the were missing out on huge money with the quotas there but we will find out if that is the case.

We're down 30k this yr as a result of quotas.
If quotas stayed no young person would enter dairy farming.
I fir one wouldn't any way

_Brian · 24-03-2015 04:43PM

Will the expected increase in cow numbers and perhaps improved sexed semen results see this as a tipping point against suckler herds ??

Nettleman · 24-03-2015 04:56PM

_Brian wrote: »

Will the expected increase in cow numbers and perhaps improved sexed semen results see this as a tipping point against suckler herds ??

Now theres a question worth some debate-sexed semen is far from a success (yet), but it will probably get there-IMO The suckler man has never had the support of his processing customers, and that's always been a big difference between dairy and beef.

blue5000 · 24-03-2015 05:48PM

_Brian wrote: »

Will the expected increase in cow numbers and perhaps improved sexed semen results see this as a tipping point against suckler herds ??

Thanks Brian, that's what I was sorta thinking when I started this thread, I didn't realize there were so many pessimistic ppl about. I think a few years after quotas came in anybody with a decent quota powered ahead, and everybody else got left behind until SFP came in to level the pitch a bit in the naughties. Now, I think the established dairy guys are going to power ahead again, but new entrants are going to be busy fools for a few years anyway.

mf240 · 24-03-2015 05:49PM

_Brian wrote: »

Will the expected increase in cow numbers and perhaps improved sexed semen results see this as a tipping point against suckler herds ??

Might be good for beef if there are more calves sold to exporters instead of staying on farm to drink milk and then "missing the boat"

_Brian · 24-03-2015 06:47PM

mf240 wrote: »

Might be good for beef if there are more calves sold to exporters instead of staying on farm to drink milk and then "missing the boat"

I was thinking the opposite..

Take a dairy herd, if the dairy farmer was relatively confident he could brerd replacment heifers of half the herd, will they opt to put beef straws or let a mop up beef bull run with the remainder.. This would see more beef X bred calves in the spring which would be headed into the beef chain rather than the boat..

I think this will put huge pressure on the suckler producing average and below stock, at present their stock is essentially loss making and with this alternative supply of average beef into the chain they surely will need to step up or get out.

mahoney_j · 24-03-2015 07:02PM

Greengrass1 wrote: »

We're down 30k this yr as a result of quotas.
If quotas stayed no young person would enter dairy farming.
I fir one wouldn't any way

Down 30 k gg ???scratching me head trying to figure out that.unless you've the stock grazing infrastructure slurry storage and facalities in order your down nothing...or else you've a big levy to pay.keep saying it but just cause quotas are gone loading on extra nos ain't nesecarrily going to make u more money.efficancy is going to be key and ability to turn grass into kg milk solids

frazzledhome · 24-03-2015 07:20PM

The one big thing I see is that all cows can now be milked for 305 days. That in itself has to be the biggest efficiency I see

Greengrass1 · 24-03-2015 08:40PM

mahoney_j wrote: »

Down 30 k gg ???scratching me head trying to figure out that.unless you've the stock grazing infrastructure slurry storage and facalities in order your down nothing...or else you've a big levy to pay.keep saying it but just cause quotas are gone loading on extra nos ain't nesecarrily going to make u more money.efficancy is going to be key and ability to turn grass into kg milk solids

Maybe not quite 30k but 20 definitely
Between an sl and cows thar could have been milked on longer it adds up very quickly.
I could have milked on alot of cows up until the spring calvers started calving
We're not loading on extra cows here to try be more efficient we are fairly efficient already well with the work dad and myself put in over last 3 yrs we are.
solids weren't our problem it was calving pattern.
that's back where we had it now and I'm driving on with numbers Keeping on reseeding as much as I can

Mad4simmental · 24-03-2015 08:53PM

mf240 wrote: »

Might be good for beef if there are more calves sold to exporters instead of staying on farm to drink milk and then "missing the boat"

+1 I also think the bobby truck will become the norm in a few years time for sum of the more extreme je.

I was talking to the local DeLaval guy around here and he's busy upgrading existing units and doing F-all new entrants. Any new ones he's done were tillage ground.

A few less conts around will only increase competition around the ring. Less export quality stock will do the same.

When the dust settles I don't think it will effect beef to badly but that depends what Larry has up his sleeve.

orm0nd · 24-03-2015 09:16PM

Greengrass1 wrote: »

We're down 30k this yr as a result of quotas.
If quotas stayed no young person would enter dairy farming.
I fir one wouldn't any way

I was in that situation back in '84, ongoing bovine tb from 1980 meant I had to work off my 1979 milk supply,

This was after just taking over the farm in 1977 complete with a hefty debt.

I STAYED !

we were tougher in those days :rolleyes:

kevthegaff · 24-03-2015 09:24PM

frazzledhome wrote: »

The one big thing I see is that all cows can now be milked for 305 days. That in itself has to be the biggest efficiency I see

empty cows can be milked through the winter and finished out of the parlour also

Quotas gone, what will be different?

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