Quotas gone, what will be different?

blue5000

It's the biggest change to Irish farming in the last 30 years. I'm no Spring chicken and I remember quotas coming in back in 1984, now what changes do you think will happen?
NZ had the same amount of dairy cows in 1984 as we had, now they have 5x as much, will the same thing happen here? How will it affect your farm?

_Brian

More cows are a dead cert throughout the country, the mistake is so many lads think more cows will make them profitable. Farmers not making sufficient money with what they have need to be careful taking on more cows thinking this is the solution. My fear is soo many will become busy fools.

whelan2

think the biggest challenge will be to get labour to work on dairy farms, hard enough now as it is

Capercaillie

More cows, less hedgerows/scrub, increased pollution, less wildlife, more farmers in debt after expansion, less time off for farmers.

einn32

Capercaillie wrote: »

More cows, less hedgerows/scrub, increased pollution, less wildlife, more farmers in debt after expansion, less time off for farmers.

I wouldn't agree with more pollution and less hedgerows. It's too strict here due to EU regulations. The repercussions for your business are huge if you are caught polluting.I think most farmers are actually considerate about maintaining the environment. There is less wildlife currently due to the change in farming practice in the last 30 years among other things.

Yes they are always going to be repercussions to it but anyone with a bit of drive and good farming practice has to see it as an opportunity.

My worry would centre on what the EU could come up with in new environmental legislation, especially greenhouse gases.

Nettleman

More cows, more meal bills, more fertiliser bills, more vets bill, more vat for the state, more milking machines, parlours, sheds, more money lent out by banks, more activity at marks for boney bull calves that nobody can put flesh on, more cheap dairy beef for the factories, and within 5 years, when we all cop on, more farms repossessed by banks. More for everyone, except the farmer.

Capercaillie

einn32 wrote: »

I wouldn't agree with more pollution and less hedgerows. It's too strict here due to EU regulations. The repercussions for your business are huge if you are caught polluting.I think most farmers are actually considerate about maintaining the environment. There is less wildlife currently due to the change in farming practice in the last 30 years among other things.

Yes they are always going to be repercussions to it but anyone with a bit of drive and good farming practice has to see it as an opportunity.

My worry would centre on what the EU could come up with in new environmental legislation, especially greenhouse gases.

There is widespread hedgerow destruction going on now. A lot of mature trees being removed from hedges and hedges trimmed/hacked back to near the ground. Hedgerows being removed and "replaced", the replaced hedges often of less quality (less species). The drive for intensification is driving this.
When the dairy herd mushrooms in size even with increases in farming infrastructure it will lead to increased pollution. More tyres/more punctures.

farmerjj

God this is a fairly depressing thread so far, nodody knows what's going to happen, we can guess alright but that's all.

degetme

farmerjj wrote: »

God this is a fairly depressing thread so far, nodody knows what's going to happen, we can guess alright but that's all.

Bigger milk cheque:-)

Greengrass1

Survival of the fittest.

Capercaillie there is a difference between hedgerow destruction and tidying up a farm.

mahoney_j

Very pesemetic lads I see big opportunities to push yourself ,your land and your cows to max potential to increase your bet worth.no worries bout watching your milk supply v quota at drying off or through the spring.i for one say bring it on hopefully we'll all plough on and pull through but no point worrying bout what ur neighbours think or things outside ur control control what's inside ur own gate and leave everyone else worry about themselves

mf240

Capercaillie wrote: »

More cows, less hedgerows/scrub, increased pollution, less wildlife, more farmers in debt after expansion, less time off for farmers.

If the cows stating eating the hedges your overstocked.

darragh_haven

mahoney_j wrote: »

Very pesemetic lads I see big opportunities to push yourself ,your land and your cows to max potential to increase your bet worth.no worries bout watching your milk supply v quota at drying off or through the spring.i for one say bring it on hopefully we'll all plough on and pull through but no point worrying bout what ur neighbours think or things outside ur control control what's inside ur own gate and leave everyone else worry about themselves

A fella i went to Ag College with 16 years ago, who took over his farm from his dad at 20, said he sees it being this way for 2 or 3 years, and then Dairy farmers will be like a junkie who has got his first few hits free...... then he has to "pay the man."
He doesnt know who or what "the Man" will be (suggested it could be Banks, Processors, Co-ops, or a unkonown unkown), but he's sure as hell that no matter what expansion or efficency the farmer does, that "the Man" will take fat while the farmer will still just make a normal living.
He rekoned that Quota were good for at least 70% of dairy farmers. A lot on boards seem to be in the other 30%.

Saying that, he said he's a happy farmer. and then asked me if id contract rear his calves & heifers......:rolleyes:

AntrimGlens

blue5000 wrote: »

It's the biggest change to Irish farming in the last 30 years. I'm no Spring chicken and I remember quotas coming in back in 1984, now what changes do you think will happen?
NZ had the same amount of dairy cows in 1984 as we had, now they have 5x as much, will the same thing happen here? How will it affect your farm?

As long as it doesn't go too much the way it has up here with cows housed AYR and zero grazers being the new toy for everyone. Working in a parlour for the pleasure of paying the merchants, the bank and the machinery dealers, whilst there's serious disatisfaction with their co-op.

Panch18

darragh_haven wrote: »

A fella i went to Ag College with 16 years ago, who took over his farm from his dad at 20, said he sees it being this way for 2 or 3 years, and then Dairy farmers will be like a junkie who has got his first few hits free...... then he has to "pay the man."
He doesnt know who or what "the Man" will be (suggested it could be Banks, Processors, Co-ops, or a unkonown unkown), but he's sure as hell that no matter what expansion or efficency the farmer does, that "the Man" will take fat while the farmer will still just make a normal living.
He rekoned that Quota were good for at least 70% of dairy farmers. A lot on boards seem to be in the other 30%.

Saying that, he said he's a happy farmer. and then asked me if id contract rear his calves & heifers......:rolleyes:

The quota probably protected the vast majority of dairy farmers in Ireland - even though they didn't know it. It will certainly be interesting to see how it develops over the next few years - but I think it's safe to say that most lads will have to milk more cows and work harder without being a whole lot better off for it. I think the only good thing about quota removal is that if you want to increase you can, there is some freedom, but I don't think the majority of farmers will be any better off - and I think we are going to see an awful lot more lads going bust and having the land sold beneath them

With regards to what we are doing - we will actually be selling a few cows in the next few weeks - 153 calved down this year and its a few too many so we will bring that back to 140. spent the last 7 or 8 years building cow numbers (kept a few too many heifers one year) and expanding so now its time for consolidation

We have options open to us - we could set up another dairy farm on the beef farm and milk another 150 cows - but you'd have to ask yourself why would you bother, it would cost a small fortune to set the beef farm up as dairy - infrastructure - and how much better off would we be? We'd actually be a lot worse off and have to meet bank payments for the next 15 years and have nearly twice the amount of work - it doesn't make sense

So our objective over the next 5 years is to maximise the potential of our 140. we have always had a long dry period, we'll cut that back and we'll push them a little more. Our fertility, solids and grass are all at a high level already so not much we can do on that side

Milking parlour paid for this year - slurry storage will be sorted by end of the summer as well. If we can't make money out of 140 cows then they'll get the road and we'll go all beef - too much work in the cows to tolerate not making money from them

solwhit12

Panch18 wrote: »

The quota probably protected the vast majority of dairy farmers in Ireland - even though they didn't know it. It will certainly be interesting to see how it develops over the next few years - but I think it's safe to say that most lads will have to milk more cows and work harder without being a whole lot better off for it. I think the only good thing about quota removal is that if you want to increase you can, there is some freedom, but I don't think the majority of farmers will be any better off - and I think we are going to see an awful lot more lads going bust and having the land sold beneath them

With regards to what we are doing - we will actually be selling a few cows in the next few weeks - 153 calved down this year and its a few too many so we will bring that back to 140. spent the last 7 or 8 years building cow numbers (kept a few too many heifers one year) and expanding so now its time for consolidation

We have options open to us - we could set up another dairy farm on the beef farm and milk another 150 cows - but you'd have to ask yourself why would you bother, it would cost a small fortune to set the beef farm up as dairy - infrastructure - and how much better off would we be? We'd actually be a lot worse off and have to meet bank payments for the next 15 years and have nearly twice the amount of work - it doesn't make sense

So our objective over the next 5 years is to maximise the potential of our 140. we have always had a long dry period, we'll cut that back and we'll push them a little more. Our fertility, solids and grass are all at a high level already so not much we can do on that side

Milking parlour paid for this year - slurry storage will be sorted by end of the summer as well. If we can't make money out of 140 cows then they'll get the road and we'll go all beef - too much work in the cows to tolerate not making money from them

Spot on, quotas had there drawbacks but apart from 1 bad year it has protected price to a decent level. By some lads talk you were swear the were missing out on huge money with the quotas there but we will find out if that is the case.

Kovu

Have a bit of cop on lads. Idiotic posts deleted.

It's a very good thread, don't spoil it.

einn32

Kovu wrote: »

Have a bit of cop on lads. Idiotic posts deleted.

It's a very good thread, don't spoil it.

They wanted to bring quotas back??

Kovu

einn32 wrote: »

They wanted to bring quotas back??

:D

Greengrass1

solwhit12 wrote: »

Spot on, quotas had there drawbacks but apart from 1 bad year it has protected price to a decent level. By some lads talk you were swear the were missing out on huge money with the quotas there but we will find out if that is the case.

We're down 30k this yr as a result of quotas.
If quotas stayed no young person would enter dairy farming.
I fir one wouldn't any way

_Brian

Will the expected increase in cow numbers and perhaps improved sexed semen results see this as a tipping point against suckler herds ??

Nettleman

_Brian wrote: »

Will the expected increase in cow numbers and perhaps improved sexed semen results see this as a tipping point against suckler herds ??

Now theres a question worth some debate-sexed semen is far from a success (yet), but it will probably get there-IMO The suckler man has never had the support of his processing customers, and that's always been a big difference between dairy and beef.

blue5000

_Brian wrote: »

Will the expected increase in cow numbers and perhaps improved sexed semen results see this as a tipping point against suckler herds ??

Thanks Brian, that's what I was sorta thinking when I started this thread, I didn't realize there were so many pessimistic ppl about. I think a few years after quotas came in anybody with a decent quota powered ahead, and everybody else got left behind until SFP came in to level the pitch a bit in the naughties. Now, I think the established dairy guys are going to power ahead again, but new entrants are going to be busy fools for a few years anyway.

mf240

_Brian wrote: »

Will the expected increase in cow numbers and perhaps improved sexed semen results see this as a tipping point against suckler herds ??

Might be good for beef if there are more calves sold to exporters instead of staying on farm to drink milk and then "missing the boat"

_Brian

mf240 wrote: »

Might be good for beef if there are more calves sold to exporters instead of staying on farm to drink milk and then "missing the boat"

I was thinking the opposite..

Take a dairy herd, if the dairy farmer was relatively confident he could brerd replacment heifers of half the herd, will they opt to put beef straws or let a mop up beef bull run with the remainder.. This would see more beef X bred calves in the spring which would be headed into the beef chain rather than the boat..

I think this will put huge pressure on the suckler producing average and below stock, at present their stock is essentially loss making and with this alternative supply of average beef into the chain they surely will need to step up or get out.

mahoney_j

Greengrass1 wrote: »

We're down 30k this yr as a result of quotas.
If quotas stayed no young person would enter dairy farming.
I fir one wouldn't any way

Down 30 k gg ???scratching me head trying to figure out that.unless you've the stock grazing infrastructure slurry storage and facalities in order your down nothing...or else you've a big levy to pay.keep saying it but just cause quotas are gone loading on extra nos ain't nesecarrily going to make u more money.efficancy is going to be key and ability to turn grass into kg milk solids

frazzledhome

The one big thing I see is that all cows can now be milked for 305 days. That in itself has to be the biggest efficiency I see

Greengrass1

mahoney_j wrote: »

Down 30 k gg ???scratching me head trying to figure out that.unless you've the stock grazing infrastructure slurry storage and facalities in order your down nothing...or else you've a big levy to pay.keep saying it but just cause quotas are gone loading on extra nos ain't nesecarrily going to make u more money.efficancy is going to be key and ability to turn grass into kg milk solids

Maybe not quite 30k but 20 definitely
Between an sl and cows thar could have been milked on longer it adds up very quickly.
I could have milked on alot of cows up until the spring calvers started calving
We're not loading on extra cows here to try be more efficient we are fairly efficient already well with the work dad and myself put in over last 3 yrs we are.
solids weren't our problem it was calving pattern.
that's back where we had it now and I'm driving on with numbers Keeping on reseeding as much as I can

Mad4simmental

mf240 wrote: »

Might be good for beef if there are more calves sold to exporters instead of staying on farm to drink milk and then "missing the boat"

+1 I also think the bobby truck will become the norm in a few years time for sum of the more extreme je.

I was talking to the local DeLaval guy around here and he's busy upgrading existing units and doing F-all new entrants. Any new ones he's done were tillage ground.

A few less conts around will only increase competition around the ring. Less export quality stock will do the same.

When the dust settles I don't think it will effect beef to badly but that depends what Larry has up his sleeve.

orm0nd

Greengrass1 wrote: »

We're down 30k this yr as a result of quotas.
If quotas stayed no young person would enter dairy farming.
I fir one wouldn't any way

I was in that situation back in '84, ongoing bovine tb from 1980 meant I had to work off my 1979 milk supply,

This was after just taking over the farm in 1977 complete with a hefty debt.

I STAYED !


we were tougher in those days :rolleyes:

kevthegaff

frazzledhome wrote: »

The one big thing I see is that all cows can now be milked for 305 days. That in itself has to be the biggest efficiency I see

empty cows can be milked through the winter and finished out of the parlour also

kevthegaff

I for one will be very happy quotas are gone, large block with feck all quota, ive upgraded facilities with housing for 160 cubicles, parlour next in 2 year. Quotas have held me back the last 7 years imo. Most guys that are happy are the ambitious/optimistic farmers, they guys that arent are mainly the neighbour looking over frazzs ditch :-D

onyerbikepat

It's amazing the number of people that believe you can increase the supply of something and not expect a fall in price. Its the most basic law of economics.

freedominacup

onyerbikepat wrote: »

It's amazing the number of people that believe you can increase the supply of something and not expect a fall in price. Its the most basic law of economics.

Your graph assumes a drop in demand as well as an increase in supply.

Greengrass1

orm0nd wrote: »

I was in that situation back in '84, ongoing bovine tb from 1980 meant I had to work off my 1979 milk supply,

This was after just taking over the farm in 1977 complete with a hefty debt.

I STAYED !


we were tougher in those days :rolleyes:

Just did a quick tot up. Wasnt too far off my est of 30 k.
suprising the amount feeding calves and drying cows off early adds to bottom line.
SL is the biggest one.
Last time dad was caught was in 90s when fine was 34 c or so.

freedominacup

blue5000 wrote: »

Thanks Brian, that's what I was sorta thinking when I started this thread, I didn't realize there were so many pessimistic ppl about. I think a few years after quotas came in anybody with a decent quota powered ahead, and everybody else got left behind until SFP came in to level the pitch a bit in the naughties. Now, I think the established dairy guys are going to power ahead again, but new entrants are going to be busy fools for a few years anyway.

At a dg meeting today and the guys who are powering ahead are the young new entrants. Gone from no cows a couple of years ago to 120 plus today. Host farmer inherited from a relation. Whatever stock he inherited went to pay taxes. That was four years ago. Milking 100 this year farm more or less fully stocked. Was self employed in the trades before he got going. Reared on a very well run dairy farm so had a good bit of practical experience/knowledge. Farm fully paddocked at this stage. Huge changes since we were last there two years ago. Outdoor cubicles installed before last winter. He compared himself very favourably with former colleagues who are leaving home at six in the morning to head for Cork to work and getting home hallf seven/eight o'clock in the evening. He's no fool. Spent a lot of money and I'm sure borrowed a good bit but he's comfortable with the prospect of lower prices for a couple of years if it happens.

The new entrants in our group have their heads screwed on and are working on farms that were always well run and pushed hard. They're just pushing in a different direction now.

I was talking to a young bank manager a couple of weeks ago. Farmers son with at least one brother farming fulltime. I said to him that with all of the talk around they must be flat to the boards horsing out cash to new entrants. No was the reply,"there's a lot of big tillage and beef farms in my area they don't need to convert and most of them aren't going to". Most of the increase is going to come from areas with a lot of dairy already imo. Even fairly heavily stocked farms have 20-30% latent expansion potential without ever milking an extra cow. Just milking every cow for 305 days will give a couple of percent. Tighter calving and getting the most out of peak grass growth could give 300l per cow for almost no cost. Add in the returns from extra meal in a reasonable price year and you get a good bit of extra production. Established dairy farms where everything has been relatively cushy might well find themselves trailing in the wake of a lot of new entrants.

Father loves to tell this story. A good friend of his was driving through the village almost fifty years ago. He was flagged down by one of the local strong (established) farmers who seemed to want to shoot the breeze. They were talking for a few minutes and the conversation turned to a substantial farm that was for sale locally. Strong farmer asked my father's friend what he thought it would make. The friend mentioned a figure might have been £150/acre."Ah shur I'll never have to give that for it" the strong farmer replied. My father's friend agreed with him "yer right" he said "you won't have to give that for it because I already have". There endth that particular lesson as the friend drove off I'm sure leaving the strong farmer with a face like bishop Brennans after the arse kicking incident. New entrants might be busy fools for a while but the good ones are going to be formidable. They'll have had very little cushy for a long time and when they start to generate free cash they'll know exactly where to spend it to generate more.

Greengrass1

freedominacup wrote: »

At a dg meeting today and the guys who are powering ahead are the young new entrants. Gone from no cows a couple of years ago to 120 plus today. Host farmer inherited from a relation. Whatever stock he inherited went to pay taxes. That was four years ago. Milking 100 this year farm more or less fully stocked. Was self employed in the trades before he got going. Reared on a very well run dairy farm so had a good bit of practical experience/knowledge. Farm fully paddocked at this stage. Huge changes since we were last there two years ago. Outdoor cubicles installed before last winter. He compared himself very favourably with former colleagues who are leaving home at six in the morning to head for Cork to work and getting home hallf seven/eight o'clock in the evening. He's no fool. Spent a lot of money and I'm sure borrowed a good bit but he's comfortable with the prospect of lower prices for a couple of years if it happens.

The new entrants in our group have their heads screwed on and are working on farms that were always well run and pushed hard. They're just pushing in a different direction now.

I was talking to a young bank manager a couple of weeks ago. Farmers son with at least one brother farming fulltime. I said to him that with all of the talk around they must be flat to the boards horsing out cash to new entrants. No was the reply,"there's a lot of big tillage and beef farms in my area they don't need to convert and most of them aren't going to". Most of the increase is going to come from areas with a lot of dairy already imo. Even fairly heavily stocked farms have 20-30% latent expansion potential without ever milking an extra cow. Just milking every cow for 305 days will give a couple of percent. Tighter calving and getting the most out of peak grass growth could give 300l per cow for almost no cost. Add in the returns from extra meal in a reasonable price year and you get a good bit of extra production. Established dairy farms where everything has been relatively cushy might well find themselves trailing in the wake of a lot of new entrants.

Father loves to tell this story. A good friend of his was driving through the village almost fifty years ago. He was flagged down by one of the local strong (established) farmers who seemed to want to shoot the breeze. They were talking for a few minutes and the conversation turned to a substantial farm that was for sale locally. Strong farmer asked my father's friend what he thought it would make. The friend mentioned a figure might have been £150/acre."Ah shur I'll never have to give that for it" the strong farmer replied. My father's friend agreed with him "yer right" he said "you won't have to give that for it because I already have". There endth that particular lesson as the friend drove off I'm sure leaving the strong farmer with a face like bishop Brennans after the arse kicking incident. New entrants might be busy fools for a while but the good ones are going to be formidable. They'll have had very little cushy for a long time and when they start to generate free cash they'll know exactly where to spend it to generate more.

Great post freedom
I have met a good few very talented and smart new entrants who are going to be up in the best farmers in the country in a few yrs

onyerbikepat

freedominacup wrote: »

Your graph assumes a drop in demand as well as an increase in supply.

It ain't my graph. Everybody is talking about expansion, but nobody's talking about milk price. It's the elephant in the room I know, but what do people on here expect milk prices to be this time 12 months.

Dawggone

Anyone hear the quote "when a herd is stampeding it is very hard to turn it"?

The general consensus here is that quota has been a roaring success for the last 30 odd years...this from a country that never allowed quota to become an asset on the balance sheet. Hmmm.





Just saying.

Dawggone

frazzledhome wrote: »

The one big thing I see is that all cows can now be milked for 305 days. That in itself has to be the biggest efficiency I see

Hate to jump in on you...but were you milking too many cows all along??

caseman

Ill be able to send milk and won't have to dump it into the slurry tank.

Dawggone

blue5000 wrote: »

It's the biggest change to Irish farming in the last 30 years. I'm no Spring chicken and I remember quotas coming in back in 1984, now what changes do you think will happen?
NZ had the same amount of dairy cows in 1984 as we had, now they have 5x as much, will the same thing happen here? How will it affect your farm?

Many things will be completely different Blue. Farmers will have to learn real quick about price volatility. Anyone that doesn't properly understand risk management and budgeting are in for a cluster fcuk...

Brown Podzol

onyerbikepat wrote: »

It's amazing the number of people that believe you can increase the supply of something and not expect a fall in price. Its the most basic law of economics.

Standard supply/demand graph. Shift the demand curve left or right to see the effect on price, likewise with the supply curve.

Dawggone

Brown Podzol wrote: »

Standard supply/demand graph. Shift the demand curve left or right to see the effect on price, likewise with the price curve.

It's so basic a graph it has to be flawed.
However it does illustrate to the dimmest of beings that if you load on product to any market the price will fall.


Just commenting on a graph...I'm not saying it will happen soon.

mf240

stretch film

Dawggone wrote: »

Many things will be completely different Blue. Farmers will have to learn real quick about price volatility. Anyone that doesn't properly understand risk management and budgeting are in for a cluster fcuk...

price volatility is a well established phenomenon I would suggest since late noughties. one not exclusive to Ireland I presume.

agree on business management needing to up it a gear but will the focus be on the practicalities of expansion rather than the finances...fairly sure plenty of us will have a big blow out before we take stock .

if a dairy farmer wants to manage the risk to his income he cant do it within farming .if dairy hits a speed bump its usually flagged and its up to u to react and not overreact and just batten down until the next rise. nothing else in (mainstream) agri will fill a income void imo. that's coming from a long since ceased tillage and recently "retired " beef farmer;)

Dawggone

mf240 wrote: »

Dougal is processing milk?


Cryptically cynical! Lol.

FarmerDougal

mf240 wrote: »

Those women were in the nip

Markcheese

onyerbikepat wrote: »

It's amazing the number of people that believe you can increase the supply of something and not expect a fall in price. Its the most basic law of economics.

Are you talking Irish price or world market price - because world production isn't really affected by Irish milk production.

Brown Podzol

Markcheese wrote: »

Are you talking Irish price or world market price - because world production isn't really affected by Irish milk production.

But Irish price is determined by world production.

frazzledhome

A big change for us will be not having to part with 2.5c per litre for every litre on quota.

I along with many others grew a business with quota costs attached, it was hard work and we were short if money a lot of the time.

That's just the nature of small business where your the owner operator.

It is optional as to wheather one expands get into cows or not. I wish everyone well it will be hard going and there will be casualties but I'd wager very few will be new entrants.

I host a few groups here and the new entrants that I've met are the most switched on people I've come across since I joined this business.

I thought I was good to do budgets these guys made a show of my pitiful attempts. These guys are the future of this game.

The naysayers will trot out price interest rates etc but they're only details.

Grass, fertility, roads, cows and financial planning are the keys to making a success of this game.

Do not listen to the begrudgers cause if I and many others had We'd have no dairy industry today.

I'm a fan of Gold Rush and the legend Tony Beets and he's always saying "make it frigging happen" or when asked what plan B is "same as plan A but we'll try harder"