Cheltenham Festival 2015

shy-tall-knight · 05-03-2015 07:09PM

Dr. Bre wrote: »

does anyone give special tiara a chance

No. Needs a flat track as he barely gets 2 miles. Would be surprised to see him in the first 5.

Gringo180 · 05-03-2015 07:17PM

Sire De Grugy is some specimen. Just watched a clip of him in the Gary Moore yard. Only thing I can see beating him next week is Sprinter Sacre but he will have to be somewhere near the top of his game, the way he won that handicap chase LTO was very special, he made a mockery of decent horses and gave them a tonne of weight too.

Meath Centre Forward · 05-03-2015 07:23PM

Whoever said Peace and Co.'s jumping is a huge worry should pack it in, in my opinion! His jumping at Doncaster was the best I've seen from a juvenile making his British debut. An absolute natural! Mind you, he was jumping hurdles that day, someone thinks he jumped a fence!

Also agree there's e/w value in the Supreme and Arkle. I wouldn't be going round claiming either of Douvan or Un De Sceaux won't win, but for novices making their Cheltenham debut, I'd be quite happy to oppose them at the prices! Backing horses that short early in the Festival .... well my pocket wouldn't stick it out, not sure about any else's!

The Champion Hurdle and Champion Chase look really great contests even for the small fields they've attracted - small but select. I'd be happier backing Faugheen at his odds than Un De Sceaux or Douvan primarily as Faugheen has won at the Festival before. But I think The New One is a little bit of value. He did not get enough credit for his run last year. He seems to have a reputation as lacking speed but I actually think looking at the line-up, the potential for a slow pace will suit. I also must admit to having had a second look at the outsiders, Kitten Rock & Arctic Fire. I think they have the potential to cause an upset.

The Champion Chase and Sire De Grugy is the one for me. If the Champion Hurdle lacks pace, the Champion Chase is the opposite as Special Tiara, Mr. Mole, Champagne Fever and Somersby will all want to be in the lead. So out of that contingent, it may be a case of who can adapt to new tactics the best. The upshot is we'll have a fast pace and like last year, I can see Sire De Grugy arriving late on the scene after being held up. The view on Sprinter Sacre seems to be that his run at Ascot indicated the horse is not back to his best and I have come round to that way of thinking myself. Geraghty and Henderson are giving a different impression but I am not considering him. Top 3: Sire De Grugy, Champagne Fever and Mr Mole.

Of the other races from the first 2 days, I like Very Wood in the 4-miler (is he a definite for this race yet?) and Supasundae in the Bumper. Very Wood is a Festival winner and stays all day. He got better the further he went at Navan which like Cheltenham has a stiff uphill finish. Supasundae is what you might call regally bred. Whether he's as good as breeding says is still to be answered but he certainly looked the part at Ascot. He'll be racing for brand new connections and he's the one for me. Livelovelaugh of the Mullins contingent is interesting too. He's been the least impressive of Mullins entries but he stays and I can see cutting out the pace and proving hard to pass.

Backstreet Moyes · 05-03-2015 10:41PM

Anyone know where Mckinleys going?

madmoose · 05-03-2015 11:05PM

Think mckinleys going the martin pipe.

Me an my mate did a big ew patent but more of that is out but was nrnb on him leaving us with

Coneygree 12/1
Don cossack 7/1

Would this be an eachway double now?

lemush · 05-03-2015 11:05PM

Nuts102 wrote: »

Anyone know where Mckinleys going?

Martin Pipe, Patrick quite sweet on him last night while Willie is quoted as saying Roi De Francs is "better than his mark" for the same race.

Backstreet Moyes · 05-03-2015 11:17PM

lemush wrote: »

Martin Pipe, Patrick quite sweet on him last night while Willie is quoted as saying Roi De Francs is "better than his mark" for the same race.

Ye that's the problem both seem fancied but looks like they are going against each other.

frank93 · 05-03-2015 11:35PM

madmoose wrote: »

Think mckinleys going the martin pipe.

Me an my mate did a big ew patent but more of that is out but was nrnb on him leaving us with

Coneygree 12/1
Don cossack 7/1

Would this be an eachway double now?

It'll go to a e/w double and 2 singles.

BumperD · 05-03-2015 11:38PM

mr.jingle wrote: »

Thought he was unlucky with Cotton Mill when he ran out when going well with Simonsig.

Can't have Three Kingdoms personally but i'd like to think he will go close with his handicap horses. It will take the ride of the meeting to get Parlour Games to win as he needs to be produced on the line

Not sure Parlour games needs to be produced late, watch his trial at cheltenham, he sauntered away from them, my only concern is that race was run at a crawl and he didn't look a fluid jumper. I did not see his last race. Maybe the stronger pace will suit. I do fancy him. He's been on the go a long time though so it's not the traditional build up you normally associate with Cheltenham (brought along to peak in March with a few runs under the belt), he's been on the go a long time.

keep the wet · 05-03-2015 11:56PM

Don't rule out Alvisio ville in the opener he was backed the last day as defeat was out of the question back with paddy power as if fav wins you get your money back.
Don Cossack wont loose and very wood is a good bet as well in the 4 miler

UnitedIrishman · 06-03-2015 12:33AM

Looking at the Supreme and outside of the favourite I think Qewy or Shaneshill are going to be in the mix. Qewy would have to jump better than he has but he was impressively quick beating Cardinal Walter who has since won. Finishing 6 lengths down on Aso wasn't bad either given the latter had a few runs over hurdles under his belt before winning. If Shaneshill is to win I think he might have to go the Champagne Fever route about it and make it a test rather than about a turn of foot. Got up the hill very well last year. Another that will have to jump a lot better than the last time when beat by No More Heroes. But the Supreme can often go to the stamina horse and not the speed horse.

I know it's not the way to think about betting on any race, but I've seen enough good things in the Supreme to not be swayed into lumping on Douvan - MTOY was rated 10lbs above nearly everything in 2013, Cue Card was a certainty to many experts in 2011, Dunguib again the year before at 4/5, another Mullins one with Cousin Vinny in 09') So will probably back one or both of the above with PP with their moneyback.

bestleftfull3 · 06-03-2015 12:38AM

in Melbourne at the min time difference is a filler so wont see any races ! hard to get involved when not watching so just doing an each way treble !! same winner in the GC hurricane fly in the CH and quantiteavsing in the X country

EICVD · 06-03-2015 12:46AM

Ipsos Du Berlais 14/1 for the X Country could be a nice e/w bet. Definitely stays but seems like one of those horses that doesn't have any interest. A spin around in the novelty race could rejuvenate him.....

Mountainlad · 06-03-2015 03:46AM

Everyone talking about Paddy powers offer, but William Hills is way better. Win or e/w bet on the Supreme and if it doesn't come in you get a free bet to the value of your stake.

No matter if it's Douvan, L'ami Serge, Jollyalan and you have Qewy (for example) backed then you get your money back. And they are actually a better price then Powers on most horses too. NRNB as well.

lemush · 06-03-2015 03:49AM

Mountainlad wrote: »

Everyone talking about Paddy powers offer, but William Hills is way better. Win or e/w bet on the Supreme and if it doesn't come in you get a free bet to the value of your stake.

No matter if it's Douvan, L'ami Serge, Jollyalan and you have Qewy (for example) backed then you get your money back. And they are actually a better price then Powers on most horses too. NRNB as well.

Is the Hills offer not 25 max free bet on the handicap chase?

nobody told me · 06-03-2015 06:14AM

lemush wrote: »

Is the Hills offer not 25 max free bet on the handicap chase?

People really need to read the small print on these bets!! Yes it is a free bet in the handicap chase

DaveyLad · 06-03-2015 07:35AM

nobody told me wrote: »

People really need to read the small print on these bets!! Yes it is a free bet in the handicap chase

Think Its only a free bet on the handicap chase if the bet is done in shop (which doesnt apply to us as we dont have WH shops anymore), on mobile its a free bet up to a max of €25 on any race once its used inside 24 hours

oPATCHo · 06-03-2015 07:39AM

People...

If you place the bet online, via mobile or via text then your £25 stake is refunded back as a free bet for any race which must be used within 7 day

The small print

Online/ mobile only, qualifying bets; win/each way single bets placed on supreme novices’ hurdle from 5:30pm 26th Feb - 1:30pm 10th March. Multiple bets do not count. Money back as a free bet up to £25. Only applies to first bet placed on supreme novices’ and where bet returns zero. Free bet stake not included in any winnings.

Qualifying Bets

- Bets placed online, via mobile or text.

- Win single or each way single bets only. Multiple bets DO NOT count.

- Only your first bet placed on the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle will qualify toward this offer. Subsequent bets on the same selection or additional selections will NOT qualify.

- Only bets placed on the main race market count, bets placed on additional markets (e.g. Place Only Betting, Match Bets etc) will NOT qualify.

- In cases where more than one selection is placed on the same bet slip, the selection with the lowest bet reference number counts towards this offer.

Free Bet Award

- A customer is eligible for a free bet of up to a maximum of £25 should their qualifying bet return zero on settlement of the race (e.g. A ‘WIN’ bet on a selection that does not win or an each way bet on a selection that does not place).

- Free bet token will be credited to the qualifying customer account within 24 hours of the race completion.

- Duplicate accounts will not qualify for this offer. Only 'one free bet' per person, household address, email address, debit/credit card number, or IP address is allowed.

- This promotion is only available to residents of UK and Republic of Ireland.

- William Hill reserve the right to withhold or reclaim any free bet stakes allocated to customers not in the above territories by mistake.

- William Hill reserve the right to withhold any free bets if we believe that the promotion has been abused or where irregular betting patterns have been discovered.

- Free bets must be placed within 7 days of award otherwise they will expire.

- Free bet stake not included in any winnings

- Your free bet must be used as one single transaction and cannot be partially redeemed.

- Redeemed free bets will not qualify for any future free bets.

- Redeemed free bets will not count toward qualification to view streamed events.

oPATCHo · 06-03-2015 07:39AM

Taken from http://www.williamhill.com/supreme

Shemale · 06-03-2015 07:40AM

andyman wrote: »

It's all about Silver Concorde lads, I'm telling you.

Also, I was talking to Bryan Cooper last week and asked him to pick one horse of his mounts he fancies the most, he said Don Cossack.

Where is he running Andy, dont see him entered?

Might back all of Dr Lambs runners, a friend got three tips from him last year but they were drip fed, oh what could have been.

Shemale · 06-03-2015 07:51AM

Skybet doing up to 25 freebet if your supreme horse loses.

They have one of these free bets for each day, Neptune JLT and Triumph.

Risk free bets on Douvan and Vautour coming up!

Peintre Celebre · 06-03-2015 08:00AM

Been trying to break down the handicaps the last few days.

Think Grand Vision is the best bet of them in the Kim Muir. Ladbrokes a stand out 20/1

battser · 06-03-2015 09:14AM

Shemale wrote: »

Skybet doing up to 25 freebet if your supreme horse loses.

They have one of these free bets for each day, Neptune JLT and Triumph.

Risk free bets on Douvan and Vautour coming up!

Ruby was very keen on Vautour the other night in westmanstown. I think he is a bigger cert than most favs this year.

the groutch · 06-03-2015 10:39AM

Foxrock supplemented for the Ryaniar, price up at 8/1

skippymac6 · 06-03-2015 12:32PM

Lot of talk for Very Wood for the National Hunt chase and while I agree, I'd have to give a very good chance to The Job Is Right in the same race. Was going to come second before falling in the Thyestes behind Djakadam (who seemingly is all the rage for the Gold Cup now).

He had a nice spin over hurdles the last day behind the Dedigout but his two other runs where he won on New Years Eve in Punchestown beating As De Ferbet and especially when he was 4th in the Paddypower at Christmas (Living Next Door first and Foxrock second) along with the Thyestes run marks him out for me. Also he was only a length and a half behind Very Wood at Galway last October on his chase debut. Of course there has to be an element of guess work that he will stay the 4 miles but with Derek O'Connor on board I think he is certainly worth an each way squeak.

posturingpat · 06-03-2015 12:38PM

battser wrote: »

Ruby was very keen on Vautour the other night in westmanstown. I think he is a bigger cert than most favs this year.

He's got serious opposition i think,Apache Stronghold will be hard beat and will love the likely better ground,everything went wrong for him last time and still won a nice race,Ptit zig looked a really good animal in Novice company until falling in open company last time but if that hasn't left a mark he's a threat and then there's usually a surprise package too.

Other than Vautours 1st run over fences he's not been overly impressive falling and then winning a nothing race,at 2/1 or so i couldn't be having him although if he shows his very best it is hard to see him beat but i'm not so sure he will.

Francie Barrett · 06-03-2015 12:49PM

Just finished the last of my Cheltenham bets last night. Getting excited now about the week ahead.

supremenovice · 06-03-2015 02:35PM

Who are we thinking will ride Arctic Fire? David Casey?

madmoose · 06-03-2015 02:37PM

supremenovice wrote: »

Who are we thinking will ride Arctic Fire? David Casey?

If i was owners id be getting cooper to ride it

lemush · 06-03-2015 02:37PM

battser wrote: »

Ruby was very keen on Vautour the other night in westmanstown. I think he is a bigger cert than most favs this year.

Cert? Have you looked at the JLT? Proper proper race.

Cheltenham Festival 2015

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