Cheltenham Festival 2015

dickenson famous5 · 23-02-2015 11:31AM

Think if shaneshill runs well on the tuesday people will latch on to vigil for the bumper very interesting

kfallon · 23-02-2015 12:36PM

dickenson famous5 wrote: »

Think if shaneshill runs well on the tuesday people will latch on to vigil for the bumper very interesting

I can only think of 2 horses that have run in the bumper twice, Refinement and Golantilla and both ran worse on their second attempt than their first!

Anyone have PP 15/1 special for today, poxy work with their firewalls!

DylanAFC · 23-02-2015 12:42PM

kfallon wrote: »

I can only think of 2 horses that have run in the bumper twice, Refinement and Golantilla and both ran worse on their second attempt than their first!

Anyone have PP 15/1 special for today, poxy work with their firewalls!

Peace and Co And sire de grguy.

bellybuster12 · 23-02-2015 12:42PM

kfallon wrote: »

I can only think of 2 horses that have run in the bumper twice, Refinement and Golantilla and both ran worse on their second attempt than their first!

Anyone have PP 15/1 special for today, poxy work with their firewalls!

Sire de grugy and peace and co 15/1

Hulk Hands · 23-02-2015 12:45PM

Decent article here on the irrelevance of trends. The title sums it up well

https://3753artifice.wordpress.com/the-bull****-industry/

Shemale · 23-02-2015 01:30PM

Bangor Billy wrote: »

The current form of Rebecca Curtis would be a bit of a worry. Her horses have been running poorly for the past 10 days or so.

I wouldn't be overly concerned, she is very good at getting them right for the day

Muscles2006 · 23-02-2015 01:35PM

Shemale wrote: »

1. Yes, Geraghty would have had nursed him back into position and he was the quickest to the line when they went for home

2. I was referring to the pace of the race, not the minor inconvenience

3. Last year he beat Rock on Ruby (rated 170 at the time by 10L), Zarkandar(rated 167 at the time by 6L) and was beaten 1/2L by MTOY (rated 160, who then attained 167 by the end of the season). These three are a mile classier than anything he has faced and/or struggled to beat this year.

4. By nursed I mean he wasn't beaten up to get back into position, this is absolutely the thing with so much racing to do and to conserve energy

Anyway, I have furrowed this ground quite a bit and won't be revisiting it, good luck if you back TNO I think he will need plenty to be in the mix.

Shemale, your answer to Number 1 above is by far and away the worst comment Iv read on this topic. How you can say a horse who won by a neck would still have won if he was
hampered and lost 6 lengths is beyond me.

Shemale · 23-02-2015 02:03PM

Muscles2006 wrote: »

Shemale, your answer to Number 1 above is by far and away the worst comment Iv read on this topic. How you can say a horse who won by a neck would still have won if he was
hampered and lost 6 lengths is beyond me.

Excellent post :rolleyes: Seems like race reading is beyond you too

The New One was in the same position coming down the hill as he was before he was hampered having being allowed get back into position over 8 furlongs or so.

Just back TNO, I couldn't give a tuppeny damn about you losing your money.

Muscles2006 · 23-02-2015 02:09PM

Shemale wrote: »

Excellent post :rolleyes: Seems like race reading is beyond you.

The New One was in the same position coming down the hill as he was before he was hampered having being allowed get back into position over 8 furlongs or so.

Just back TNO, I couldn't give a tuppeny damn about you losing your money.

You clearly have not a clue with the Jezki comment.

convert · 23-02-2015 02:30PM

Let's stop the bickering, please.

roast222 · 23-02-2015 03:03PM

Paddy Power have now lengthened Faugheens price to 11/8 when most bookies are still going evens. Given the connection of Powers to the Mullins stable this may be an indication that Faugheen is far from bomb proof. Its far too short imo and could be closer to 2/1 on the day.

Gregk961 · 23-02-2015 03:31PM

Can't believe The New One debate is still going on, round and round for a full year. Nobody knows what would have happened if he wasnt hampered, does it even matter In relation to this years race? It would be more prudent to focus on what we DO know i.e this years form.

Shemale · 23-02-2015 03:34PM

roast222 wrote: »

Paddy Power have now lengthened Faugheens price to 11/8 when most bookies are still going evens. Given the connection of Powers to the Mullins stable this may be an indication that Faugheen is far from bomb proof. Its far too short imo and could be closer to 2/1 on the day.

Very odd, are they about to announce a special or has Ruby decided to ride Hurricane Fly :eek:

Shemale · 23-02-2015 03:35PM

Gregk961 wrote: »

Can't believe The New One debate is still going on, round and round for a full year. Nobody knows what would have happened if he wasnt hampered, does it even matter In relation to this years race? It would be more prudent to focus on what we DO know i.e this years form.

I know if he didnt get hampered Our Conor would have won

You will be glad to know I am all talked out on the subject, wont be rehashing for silly season attendees.

longshotvalue · 23-02-2015 03:56PM

roast222 wrote: »

Paddy Power have now lengthened Faugheens price to 11/8 when most bookies are still going evens. Given the connection of Powers to the Mullins stable this may be an indication that Faugheen is far from bomb proof. Its far too short imo and could be closer to 2/1 on the day.

Thats nearer the 7/2 or bigger that he should be.. Really silly price that evens..

Stacksey · 23-02-2015 04:20PM

roast222 wrote: »

Paddy Power have now lengthened Faugheens price to 11/8 when most bookies are still going evens. Given the connection of Powers to the Mullins stable this may be an indication that Faugheen is far from bomb proof. Its far too short imo and could be closer to 2/1 on the day.

PP are biggest on Faugheen at 11/8 yet are shortest on nearly every other bookies when it comes to Mullins runners, a few days ago they where 14/1 for Abbyssial for the world hurdle whereas everywhere else was 40/1, 50/1. Its like as if theyre learning from past mistakes and taking absolutely no risks with any Mullins horses

p.s wasnt the 25/1 special they did on Vautour/Faugheen last year fantastic!!

ste2010 · 23-02-2015 06:57PM

bellybuster12 wrote: »

Sire de grugy and peace and co 15/1

Peace and co the most underpriced horse in the festival...anyone backing a horse in the triumph at that price never mind one who ran a false race impressively deserves to be burnt!

Yours
The Beltor brigade :-)

ste2010 · 23-02-2015 06:58PM

Serious lack of stable tours this year

bit of a bogey · 23-02-2015 08:14PM

roast222 wrote: »

Paddy Power have now lengthened Faugheens price to 11/8 when most bookies are still going evens. Given the connection of Powers to the Mullins stable this may be an indication that Faugheen is far from bomb proof. Its far too short imo and could be closer to 2/1 on the day.

Surprised to see that change myself. Thought they would have held the market tight so they could throw out the enhanced special headlines closer to the day. I suspect that they foresee everyone will be willing to take him on. 11/8 is still too far short for me.

krustydoyle · 23-02-2015 08:19PM

PADDY POWER have taken their traditional Cheltenham Festival day one offer even further this year by offering money back on all losing bets if either short-priced favourites Douvan or Un De Sceaux win their respective races.

Douvan is currently the firm's 7-4 favourite for the opening Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle, while stablemate Un De Sceaux is 4-7 for the Racing Post-sponsored Arkle. The firm are offering money back as a free bet on all bets up to £50/€50 per customer per race.

the groutch · 23-02-2015 08:30PM

krustydoyle wrote: »

The firm are offering money back as a free bet

not worth it to wait for final decs

jimjamcos · 23-02-2015 08:36PM

aidankkk wrote: »

Thats nearer the 7/2 or bigger that he should be.. Really silly price that evens..

Would you honestly lay Faugheen at 7/2? His price is short and true price is probably 2/1 but no way should he be bigger than that

battser · 23-02-2015 08:39PM

Just opinions but open to criticism

Faugheen - Not for me, not liking his jumping, I assume AP will ride Jezki? I would side with him if not as value bet. The new one if he is.

UDS - Lump job with Annie power. Suspect you will get 2/1 on the double the tuesday morning

Sire DG - Think if he doesn't get caught up fighting with the frantic pace he could retain the CC.

Beltor - seriously impressive on Saturday, expect him to run well in triumph.

Johns Spirit for the ryanair is good value for me.

Just cannot have zarkandar. MOT could be class. Will be on Jetson for e/w value.

Bobs worth has to be serious each way value. Especially if the ground doesn't go bogwards. Gold cup will be won by a clever rider.

posturingpat · 23-02-2015 09:07PM

As regards Annie Power the more i think of it i don't get how everyone can be so keen to back her at such prohibitive odds and in multiples in particular. Mares are notoriously difficult to rely upon and she's been out for a long time,people will point to Quevega but she was an exception rather than the norm,alongside that Quevega and Annie power are physically very different,quevega quite small and slight and they tend to get fit easier whereas Annie looks more a chaser and could be difficult to get ready at home. Alongside that Glens melody looks good and Quinns horse aurores detruval(pardon the spelling) is still unexposed and i found her performance the last day impressive as she drifted from odds on out to about 11/8 and was still impressive albeit against a poor field but the drift suggested there was plenty to work on.

supremenovice · 23-02-2015 09:16PM

The odds of all four reigning champs to retain (Jezki, SDG, More of That, Lord windermere) is 1484/1 at Paddy Powers.
I can think of worse throw-away fiver bets.

ste2010 · 23-02-2015 09:18PM

supremenovice wrote: »

The odds of all four reigning champs to retain (Jezki, SDG, More of That, Lord windermere) is 1484/1 at Paddy Powers.
I can think of worse throw-away fiver bets.

Shield at the ready! Lord Windermere wouldn't have won the RSA if boston Bob didn't fall and wouldn't have won the gold cup if the jockey wasn't a cute whooore

ste2010 · 23-02-2015 09:20PM

Also re TNO - he was completely outpaced! I'd imagine he'll be the same this year. He was hampered by our Conor but gathered himself very quickly and was positioned perfectly and in touch on the back straight. He got left behind going down the hill

bit of a bogey · 23-02-2015 09:21PM

ste2010 wrote: »

Shield at the ready! Lord Windermere wouldn't have won the RSA if boston Bob didn't fall and wouldn't have won the gold cup if the jockey wasn't a cute whooore

On his own would have won the gold cup if ruby was on board

bit of a bogey · 23-02-2015 09:23PM

bit of a bogey wrote: »

On his own would have won the gold cup if ruby was on board

And Artic Fire would have won a county hurdle.....:P

ste2010 · 23-02-2015 09:26PM

bit of a bogey wrote: »

On his own would have won the gold cup if ruby was on board

The giant bolster would have won if on his own didnt jump across him at the second last !

Cheltenham Festival 2015

Comments