Cheltenham Festival 2015

handsfree2 · 22-02-2015 01:45PM

Meath Centre Forward wrote: »

If Jezki had suffered the same bad luck as The New One would Jezki have won?

The New One has not got enough credit for getting involved at the finish. Had he folded after being hampered, he'd still be an unknown and there'd be none of this "outpaced" talk!

The difficulty with your view is that he was in touch at the top of the hill but got dropped. Perhaps if he had been ridden prominently he mightn't have been left so far behind.

Meath Centre Forward · 22-02-2015 01:53PM

handsfree2 wrote: »

The difficulty with your view is that he was in touch at the top of the hill but got dropped. Perhaps if he had been ridden prominently he mightn't have been left so far behind.

He was dropped but there were excuses and the fact he finished better than everything else would indicate to me anyway that there was plenty left in him. He had to work his way back into the race after being hampered with no cover on the outside and probably losing approx 1L at the fourth, fifth, sixth and seventh hurdles by absolutely skying them. Sam Twiston Davies was also very slow in asking for a response but yet when he did the horse did respond immediately.

To think he wouldn't be able to keep going with Captain Cee Bee and that this will be the case again having dominated the 2m division in the UK last season (with MTOY) and again this season .... well I don't think those a few strides are in anyway a reflection on him! The New One of last year would no problem keeping up with Captain Cee Bee over any distance in any conditions and he would have no problem keeping up with a horse of similar ability this year.

Muscles2006 · 22-02-2015 01:53PM

Shemale wrote: »

Being hampered didn't cost him, he was right with them at the third last, after the second last Sam was the most animated of the front 5 jockeys. He got dropped by a 154 rated 13 year old who had never ran in a Champion Hurdle as he wasn't good enough.

Good luck to you if you back him but I really can't see him win it barring Jezki and Faugheen coming to grief (which nobody wants to see)

I can't understand how people say being hampered and losing roughly 6 lengths and momentum was irrelevant in a 2 mile championship race. To get back as close as he did at the third last meant he used up a lot of petrol.

Has any horse ever made the ground up on Hurricane Fly like he did after he jumped the last? He went past him as if he was no there.

He was beaten 2 1/4 lengths at the line. To me he easily lost that with the interference, that's my take on it.

There is nothing that will finish better up that hill than TNO. As long as he is within 3 lengths of Faugheen at the last (granted which is a big if as he looks a proper machine) he will be bang there.

It's also worth noting that he jumped the second last in 6th in Neptune in 2013 and ended up winning the race by 4 lengths.

His last run was a shocker which is tempting me to back Faugheen if got 6/4 NRMB.

mr.jingle · 22-02-2015 02:09PM

The New Ones hurdling is enough to put me off him, Faugheen isn't much better but has looked a class act this year and the way he picked up last year after clattering the 2nd last was stunning.

Jezki is the ew steal of the race though

Shemale · 22-02-2015 02:33PM

Muscles2006 wrote: »

I can't understand how people say being hampered and losing roughly 6 lengths and momentum was irrelevant in a 2 mile championship race. To get back as close as he did at the third last meant he used up a lot of petrol.

Has any horse ever made the ground up on Hurricane Fly like he did after he jumped the last? He went past him as if he was no there.

He was beaten 2 1/4 lengths at the line. To me he easily lost that with the interference, that's my take on it.

There is nothing that will finish better up that hill than TNO. As long as he is within 3 lengths of Faugheen at the last (granted which is a big if as he looks a proper machine) he will be bang there.

It's also worth noting that he jumped the second last in 6th in Neptune in 2013 and ended up winning the race by 4 lengths.

His last run was a shocker which is tempting me to back Faugheen if got 6/4 NRMB.

He got hampered with over a mile to run and over 6 furlongs was nursed into it, he was in contention when 13 year old Cee Bee dropped him by virtue of his lack of pace.

He stayed on last year, he stayed on in the 2m4 Neptune, he isn't quick enough and his form this year is near as good as it was going into last years race.

Last year was the ideal race for him, a very quick pace through the race and a chance to stay past tired horses except two kept going, if the pace is slower this year he probably has less of a chance as he could be right with them but when Jezki and Faugheen hit the afterburners he will be left standing.

Meath Centre Forward · 22-02-2015 02:39PM

Can someone answer these questions .... maybe you might Shemale?

1. Would Jezki have won if suffering the same bad luck as The New One?

2. How was last year an ideal race for The New One when he has hampered by the falling Our Conor and lost 5-6L?

3. What part of The New One's 2014-15 form is worse than last year?

4. You acknowledge then he had to be "nursed" to get back into the race?

I agree his jumping is a bit iffy but he's more inclined to give them too much air than hit them. The only consolation is that Jezki and Faugheen's jumping is arguably not as good.

Muscles2006 · 22-02-2015 03:26PM

Shemale wrote: »

He got hampered with over a mile to run and over 6 furlongs was nursed into it, he was in contention when 13 year old Cee Bee dropped him by virtue of his lack of pace.

He stayed on last year, he stayed on in the 2m4 Neptune, he isn't quick enough and his form this year is near as good as it was going into last years race.

Last year was the ideal race for him, a very quick pace through the race and a chance to stay past tired horses except two kept going, if the pace is slower this year he probably has less of a chance as he could be right with them but when Jezki and Faugheen hit the afterburners he will be left standing.

To say he is not quick enough is nonsense. He lost by a neck to a very quick horse in MTOY over a quick two miles in Kempton last year when the race was not run to suit. If anything Kempton would suit MTOY better than it would Cheltenham and Jezki only beat him a head there.

I think Jezki is a right good horse on good ground and not trying to knock him but I'd have TNO all day long in the betting w/o market. Not much has been made of he Geragthy/McCoy riding arrangement either. If I was on Jezki i'd def prefer Geraghty on board.

Gregk961 · 22-02-2015 03:34PM

Muscles2006 wrote: »

Not much has been made of he Geragthy/McCoy riding arrangement either. If I was on Jezki i'd def prefer Geraghty on board.

Very true, has to be counted as a negative. Probably wise to get on Jezki early if you fancy him though, anything McCoy ridden is going to be at least a point worse off

jimjamcos · 22-02-2015 04:17PM

Looking forward to Up For Review in action at Naas in awhile. Want to back him for Champion Bumper but not sure if 10's represents great value given he could be passed over by Patrick for a fancied Ricci horse come the day and be as good a price then.

Edit: looks like I dodged a bullet. Was he well beaten? Didn't see race myself

mulbot · 22-02-2015 05:15PM

Shemale wrote: »

He got hampered with over a mile to run and over 6 furlongs was nursed into it, he was in contention when 13 year old Cee Bee dropped him by virtue of his lack of pace.

He stayed on last year, he stayed on in the 2m4 Neptune, he isn't quick enough and his form this year is near as good as it was going into last years race.

Last year was the ideal race for him, a very quick pace through the race and a chance to stay past tired horses except two kept going, if the pace is slower this year he probably has less of a chance as he could be right with them but when Jezki and Faugheen hit the afterburners he will be left standing.

don't know how you say he isn't quick enough,look at the sectionals and you'll see this,had he maintained the position he was in before OC hampered him he would most likely have won

Huntley · 22-02-2015 05:43PM

mulbot wrote: »

If you look at the sectionals you will see that the times aren't significant enough to say they "kicked on" and that he couldn't keep up. He was badly hampered by OC and by looking at his race position before he was hampered and the times he posted in the next two sectionals after it,would suggest that if the original position had been held he prob would have been the winner

What are the sectionals showing you about the development of the race? A brief synopsis will do, increase of pace, moderate pace, etc.

*I presume by sectionals you mean that and not hurdle to hurdle look at the YouTube clock stuff.

krustydoyle · 22-02-2015 05:43PM

Found those Trends/Stats i was looking for in an earlier post

https://sites.google.com/site/gaultstats/

Can anyone tell me how to print them off properly? The copy and paste option doesnt format them properly.Thanks

mulbot · 22-02-2015 05:52PM

Huntley wrote: »

What are the sectionals showing you about the development of the race? A brief synopsis will do, increase of pace, moderate pace, etc.

*I presume by sectionals you mean that and not hurdle to hurdle look at the YouTube clock stuff.

yea proper sectionals

Dr. Bre · 22-02-2015 05:53PM

Mallowney very impressive again today. pity they not sending him to the festival

Huntley · 22-02-2015 06:10PM

mulbot wrote: »

yea proper sectionals

Cool, what do they show about the development of the race last year?

Denman2008 · 22-02-2015 06:24PM

Think King's horse Ordo Ab Chao is being a bit overlooked for the Neptune. Won the trial which usually comes up with horses that do well in March, was keen that day, I know King said earlier in the season he might need soft ground but 20/1 is a nice enough price. Nothing else standing out for me in the race although I am a fan of Nichols Canyon would rather be on King's at the price

mulbot · 22-02-2015 06:28PM

Huntley wrote: »

Cool, what do they show about the development of the race last year?

well just in relation to TNO his sectionals don't show a horse who wasn't quick enough to win a CH, or that MTOY or Jezki quickened significantly enough to say TNO couldn't stay with them

Huntley · 22-02-2015 06:50PM

Ok, are you saying the race was a relatively consistent pace throughout? I wouldn't ask you to post the times up or anything but I'm curious as to how they aren't showing an evident change of pace.

NaiveMelodies · 22-02-2015 07:05PM

Have had a nice bet on Moon Racer at 12s for the bumper.

Form is working out very well and the horse could be a very good 'un.
Surprised to see his price hasn't shifted since Tycoon Prince's tidy win earlier.
Probably the best endorsement of Moon Racers form to date.

Would generally avoid the bumper but I do think 12s is generous, and I'll be very surprised if he isn't single figures on the day itself.
If Mullins bumper form wasn't so prolific, I'd imagine MRs prices would be much closer to current fav Bordini's.

mulbot · 22-02-2015 07:05PM

Huntley wrote: »

Ok, are you saying the race was a relatively consistent pace throughout? I wouldn't ask you to post the times up or anything but I'm curious as to how they aren't showing an evident change of pace.

ok,yea relatively consistent,obviously at the time of the fall,TNO posted a slower time, but showed slightly quicker in next 2 sectionals,kept with the pace until his last sectional,where he was quicker to the finish-might have been a bit flattered visually though as HF's final sectional was quite slow in comparison to the 1st,2nd,3rd-

Shemale · 22-02-2015 09:54PM

Meath Centre Forward wrote: »

Can someone answer these questions .... maybe you might Shemale?

1. Would Jezki have won if suffering the same bad luck as The New One?

2. How was last year an ideal race for The New One when he has hampered by the falling Our Conor and lost 5-6L?

3. What part of The New One's 2014-15 form is worse than last year?

4. You acknowledge then he had to be "nursed" to get back into the race?

I agree his jumping is a bit iffy but he's more inclined to give them too much air than hit them. The only consolation is that Jezki and Faugheen's jumping is arguably not as good.

1. Yes, Geraghty would have had nursed him back into position and he was the quickest to the line when they went for home

2. I was referring to the pace of the race, not the minor inconvenience

3. Last year he beat Rock on Ruby (rated 170 at the time by 10L), Zarkandar(rated 167 at the time by 6L) and was beaten 1/2L by MTOY (rated 160, who then attained 167 by the end of the season). These three are a mile classier than anything he has faced and/or struggled to beat this year.

4. By nursed I mean he wasn't beaten up to get back into position, this is absolutely the thing with so much racing to do and to conserve energy

Anyway, I have furrowed this ground quite a bit and won't be revisiting it, good luck if you back TNO I think he will need plenty to be in the mix.

Shemale · 22-02-2015 10:22PM

mulbot wrote: »

well just in relation to TNO his sectionals don't show a horse who wasn't quick enough to win a CH, or that MTOY or Jezki quickened significantly enough to say TNO couldn't stay with them

Are the sectionals furlongs or longer, because he got dropped like a hot snot between 3 and 2 out. Also having rewatched it turning in it took him quite a while to pass Cee Bee, MTOY and Jezki went past Hurricane Fly quicker than TNO got by Cee Bee.

Watch this from 3m04, you will see Mc Coy and Geraghty responding to CCBs injection of pace and each other and watch the way TNO gets left behind:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hsj81XUqdmI

His run is almost identical to Zarkandars run the year Rock on Ruby won, that was lightning quick with Overturn going flat out and Rock on Ruby picking it up 3 hurdles out.

That year Zarkandar must have been a full 12 lengths behind ROR turning in and even with Jacob seeming to concede defeat before the last before realising they were getting tired in front, he finished 6 lengths off them by virtue of staying on, that race was 5 seconds slower than last years race so the quicker pace last year would suit a stayer even more than in 2012.

Gregk961 · 22-02-2015 10:27PM

Gregk961 wrote: »

Beast of Burden 50-1 nrmb for the Neptune, the happiest ive been with a price so far. Won over 3m most recently but I have a feeling he'll be better over shorter. 25-1 antepost in some places, crazy price I think with MB.

Down to 25's now and I might go at it again when the rest go nrnb for it if there's a standout price. I really think he could be 10s if he lines up

Bangor Billy · 22-02-2015 10:46PM

The current form of Rebecca Curtis would be a bit of a worry. Her horses have been running poorly for the past 10 days or so.

madmoose · 22-02-2015 10:55PM

I backed southfield theatre in october at 25/1 and 16/1 the month after but didnt expect much after this when carriag mor beat him, wasnt sure he was even going but he is now as short as 8/1. Just realised he ran and won the other week so im hoping he can hit the frame in the rsa, he should love the test as he did in last years pertempts final.

Gregk961 · 22-02-2015 11:14PM

Bangor Billy wrote: »

The current form of Rebecca Curtis would be a bit of a worry. Her horses have been running poorly for the past 10 days or so.

Yeah a very real concern, hardly had a horse place in the last fornight including two Cheltenham fancies completely bombing. Stable form can turn up as quick as it turns down though and Beast of Burden looks her best hope at Cheltenham.

Huntley · 22-02-2015 11:17PM

mulbot wrote: »

ok,yea relatively consistent,obviously at the time of the fall,TNO posted a slower time, but showed slightly quicker in next 2 sectionals,kept with the pace until his last sectional,where he was quicker to the finish-might have been a bit flattered visually though as HF's final sectional was quite slow in comparison to the 1st,2nd,3rd-

There is a significant injection of pace coming downhill before two out, I have it broken down to every ¼ of a furlong but it should still be evident on a larger scale. I wouldn't call him slow but he is brutally one paced, that should be evident in any sectional timing of his races post Neptune. The numbers shouldn't be giving two different accounts of what happened though, better check our watches.

mulbot · 22-02-2015 11:26PM

Huntley wrote: »

There is a significant injection of pace coming downhill before two out, I have it broken down to every ¼ of a furlong but it should still be evident on a larger scale. I wouldn't call him slow but he is brutally one paced, that should be evident in any sectional timing of his races post Neptune. The numbers shouldn't be giving two different accounts of what happened though, better check our watches.

is it possible watching it again that Sam twist was caught napping at that stage-3rd last hurdle-,(doesn't look like he even attempted to go with them),and not that the others had this tremendous burst of speed,. By the way i didn't back TNO last year,but i think i might this time.

*it's not my watch i'm taking times from*

Huntley · 22-02-2015 11:59PM

The watch comment was light hearted.

I never mentioned tremendous burst of speed but there was a significant increase of pace half a furlong before the penultimate hurdle. Your times mustn't be showing that but mine are. I'm not sure STD not attempting to go with them made a difference, the horse was going as fast as possible at that stage. Even when STD was flat to the floor turning in he is never going faster at any stage to the line. That's what we should both be obtaining from the sectionals provided they are correct. Something/one of us is out of kilter but that's not too relevant I guess. I do think TNO will be in the top 2.

skippymac6 · 23-02-2015 11:16AM

jimjamcos wrote: »

Looking forward to Up For Review in action at Naas in awhile. Want to back him for Champion Bumper but not sure if 10's represents great value given he could be passed over by Patrick for a fancied Ricci horse come the day and be as good a price then.

Edit: looks like I dodged a bullet. Was he well beaten? Didn't see race myself

Yeah Tycoon Prince quickened rather easily past him in the latter stages of the race. Yes it didn't do his price any good for Cheltenham but I wouldn't be tearing up any dockets just yet. It was a farce of a race and Up For Review just set it up beautifully for Tycoon Prince who just hacked around in behind him all race. Elliot said after the race that Tycoon Prince is finished for the season now so he could have had him primed for the race since he knew he wasn't going to Cheltenham. Also Mullins said he wanted to race Up for Review last week before Pylonthepressure did a great piece of work and he switched them so he might have not been fully worked up.

Interestingly I read after that it was the first 2 runner bumper race since 2012 in Listowel when Annie Power beat her only rival by 61 lengths!! :eek:

Cheltenham Festival 2015

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