I am convinced that Ireland is in Serious trouble

RecordStraight · 23-02-2015 11:51AM

Phoebas wrote: »

Last weekend!!
Have you been in a cryogenic sleep for the last 7 years?

Large parts of Ireland looked like that in the middle of the Bubble, never mind 7 years ago.

Tony EH · 23-02-2015 11:52AM

RecordStraight wrote: »

You know that the rate of repossession in the UK is TEN TIMES higher than here PER CAPITA, and they didn't even have a crash?

Your sentence is bizarre, to say the least. The UK had their biggest economic crash since the war in 2008.

Phoebas · 23-02-2015 11:55AM

RecordStraight wrote: »

Would you be interested in knowing the net migration numbers at all, to test your theory?

Or do we want to keep this a fact-free zone?

Inward migration is up.
Emigration is down.
Overall population growth is up.

http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/pme/populationandmigrationestimatesapril2014/#.VOsUk_msXas

RecordStraight · 23-02-2015 11:56AM

Tony EH wrote: »

Your sentence is bizarre, to say the least. The UK had their biggest economic crash since the war in 2008.

Property crash.

We were talking about property.

jimgoose · 23-02-2015 11:56AM

RecordStraight wrote: »

You know that the rate of repossession in the UK is TEN TIMES higher than here PER CAPITA, and they didn't even have a crash?

According to the Guardian, mortgage difficulties and repossessions in the UK are at their lowest level since 2006, at 21,000 in 2014. According to Central Bank of Ireland statistics, the number of mortgage accounts on principal residences in arrears at Q1 end 2014 was 132,217. They further point out that while the overall number is falling slowly, the number of accounts moving into long-term (i.e. >720 days) arrears is growing rather rapidly. This in a population less than one-tenth that of England. Make of that what you will.

In furtherance, what's been happening here is that financial institutions have been putting people on these ridiculous interest-only payment plans for the last few years, waiting in the long grass, as t'were, for houses to be worth enough to cover outstanding loans before moving in to recoup.

In short, it's only starting.

First Up · 23-02-2015 11:58AM

Anecdotal evidence and examples of both good and bad cases don't really prove much. Nobody denies that we took a big hit or that plenty of people are still struggling. But it is equally silly to deny that a recovery is underway; you can complain about the pace of recovery, or that it is not reaching everyone equally but the upward trends are undeniable. Whinging about it doesn't achieve much. If anyone has a better plan, let's hear it.

And if you think Ireland is in serious trouble, I can suggest a few other places to visit that might give you a different perspective.

El_Duderino 09 · 23-02-2015 11:59AM

The_Captain wrote: »

So things are getting better and there's more jobs but neither you and your partner have stable jobs and can't afford children or to invest in the future?

I'm probably the same age as you (maybe slightly younger), college degree, masters. I put up with the same crap, fixed term contracts with no prospect of being kept on, being more qualified and significantly less paid than other employees there even only five years before me.

I'm very lucky that both my wife and I have stable jobs, but if we lost our jobs tomorrow we'd have nothing, and neither of us would walk into a job.
I'm not sitting here blithely unaware of the outside world happy with my permanent contract, I have friends and family who are struggling to find work. I'm looking to move up the ladder and it is absolutely bottlednecked with overqualified people looking for anything to keep them going

I'm not saying the economy isn't getting better, but if it is, it certainly hasn't worked its way down to medium and lower end wage workers.

Right so you accept that things are getting better but you still want to whinge about it?

We're not stable enough to start a family yet and I would never raise children on benefits.

I don't think people ever got to grips with how dire the situation was. We fell a lot further than most people realise and we are climbing back slowly. Now people look around and see how low we are and think we must still be falling. Were doing about as well as we can. It's probably got more to do with global pressures than anything our government had done specifically but things are moving in the right direction.

awec · 23-02-2015 11:59AM

chrysagon wrote: »

I was out with a close friend a few weeks back, she works with a well known agency that tries to help and advise people who are struggling with personal money/debt issues etc.She told me she is as busy as she was 5 yrs ago, and fears the banks are stepping up their repossession orders, even when people are trying to renegotiate.
She told me id be surprised at the people in trouble, isnt just"layabouts" but respected people in the town who are putting on a brave face but behind it all are barely keeping head above water,

Unfortunately the crash and the remnants of it, have affected a wide spectrum of people, and will so for next few yrs.

Banks not reposessing in the past has contributed to the problems. A housing shortage combined with houses that aren't actually being paid for at all has a knock on effect.

MadYaker · 23-02-2015 12:00PM

Your anecdotal evidence is meaningless, but sure go ahead and be convinced of whatever you like. But if you want the real facts go read the CSO website.

23-02-2015 12:02PM

Eugene Norman wrote: »

Hmm, gosh we got that deficit almost sorted after 6 or 7 years huh? In the meantime debt has been pilling up.

Ireland isn't quite f*cked but it isn't in any sense of the world back on track.

Firstly we have vastly more debt than we used to have, meaning any shocks will destroy the country. We just can't afford another housing boom. But we are having one.

Secondly the deals we made have kicked some cans down the road, because the interest payments are backloaded. So they will grow as a percentage of our tax revenue over time. Our kids won't thank us. We won't be giving too many tax breaks either. High income, personal, water and house taxes are here to stay.

Thirdly we are unlikely to eat into the debt as we did in the 90's. Back then inflation and GDP growth were high enough to reduce the debt to GDP ratio every year. Despite the recent blip ( and we were in recession in 2013) we are not going to grow at 90's levels. If inflation takes off, then see point 4.

Fourthly - interest rates are low. We are in the unusual position of hoping that we grow while the rest of Europe doesn't. If Europe starts to grow and interest rates climb to anything like normal levels, then the tracker mortgage holders will be another round of defaults when their 600K 2 bedroom in Ballsbridge serviceable now at 1% a year will not be servicable at 3% plus.

That will add to the arrears we already have. Still 16% or so ( compare to the UK at 1%). We've decided to do nothing about that.

fifthly: we've started another housing boom, just to aggravate the issue when interest rates rise.

So good luck, but the good times are not going to roll, because if they start to roll for everybody else, then it's curtains for Ireland.

I don't think people realise how seismic an event 2008 was and -- even though we have saved the ship for now - how dangerous a position the ship is in. We're like sailors at sea who having patched up the ship with whatever materials were at hand, think the boat is as seaworthy as ever and sure they might as well make that dangerous crossing again.

That is one of the more sensible posts here. People need to wake up, we are facing a serious problem here. I for one have decided that I will protect myself. I am gonna ready myself with a visa for another country, because this country is facing years of stagnation.

Valetta · 23-02-2015 12:02PM

First Up wrote: »

And if you think Ireland is in serious trouble, I can suggest a few other places to visit that might give you a different perspective.

Unfortunately there is a severe lack of perspective around here.

RecordStraight · 23-02-2015 12:04PM

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

I don't think people ever got to grips with how dire the situation was.

This. We borrowed tens of billions to keep shelling out bubble-level rates of social welfare, and to keep the lights on in schools and hospitals. These borrowings shielded us from the true depth of the collapse. Of course, in the long run those borrowings must be repaid.

But the SF/AAA crowd who convince the public that 'de bankers' are to blame for everything (and let's not deny they are responsible for a lot) conceal the fact that only €40 billion or so of our €200 billion+ national debt is down to bailing out the banks. They never mention the tens of billions borrowed for social welfare payments and public services.

Adamantium · 23-02-2015 12:08PM

I agree I hauled my ass through Limerick and it looked like the ruins of Harrenhal, I've sworn loyalty to my liegelord but who's to say,that will mean a damn bit of difference if the crops fail in the ground when winter comes.

The_Captain · 23-02-2015 12:10PM

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Right so you accept that things are getting better but you still want to whinge about it?

We're not stable enough to start a family yet and I would never raise children on benefits.

I don't think people ever got to grips with how dire the situation was. We fell a lot further than most people realise and we are climbing back slowly. Now people look around and see how low we are and think we must still be falling. Were doing about as well as we can. It's probably got more to do with global pressures than anything our government had done specifically but things are moving in the right direction.

When did I say things are getting better? I don't think things are getting better. You're the one saying that even though I'm the one in the more stable position.
As I said, I was lucky to get a job, even though people just as educated and qualified as me have been searching just as long or longer.

When people can't find work, can't afford houses, are and struggling to pay rents and mortgages, it's a joke to say things are getting better.

You sid yourself, you're nearly ten years out of college with a masters degree and you can't afford a house or to have kids? Tell me where that's better than the situation in 2009

crazygeryy · 23-02-2015 12:12PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

This in a big way.

In the UK, most towns are near to at least one large city and serve as commuter towns. In Ireland a lot of towns, especially in the north-west and west are little more than a chapel, a handful of pubs and a corner shop. They're almost completely pointless.

Alright lads get the **** out of this town, your completely pointless.go on dont be looking at me like that, get out!

padd b1975 · 23-02-2015 12:13PM

The_Captain wrote: »

I'm probably the same age as you (maybe slightly younger), college degree, masters. I put up with the same crap, fixed term contracts with no prospect of being kept on, being more qualified and significantly less paid than other employees there even only five years before me.

Experience and inside knowledge of how a particular company operates will always be more valuable to a CEO than someone armed with nothing more than a couple of pieces of paper and what seems like a strong sense of entitlement and academic snobbery.

Just a little Samba · 23-02-2015 12:16PM

andrew wrote: »

It's 21.6% now, it hasn't been that high since 2012

The EU Youth Forum conference on youth employment in Rome a few months back put the figure at 29% and was massively critical of the government's failure to even pretend to impliment the youth gaurentee and trying to hide the reality.
I'm pretty sure they didn't pull that figure out of their arses.
The Euroestat figures (21.6%) consider schemes like fas and jobsbridge as being employed because they aren't "on the register". It's clever number shifting by the department to be honest.

170000 young people leaving the state between 2008 and 2015 do no small help to those figures either.

The main difference between the rates in Ireland and the other PIIGS is that Irish youth tend to emigrate during recession where as Southern European youth do not.

You completely sidestepped the underemployment issue as well I noticed.

donegaLroad · 23-02-2015 12:17PM

6541 wrote: »

I am of the opinion that Ireland is in serious trouble now.
I drove across the country at the weekend and it is shocking the state of some of the towns, street after street are lying derelict.
A whole generation have left.
There are zero jobs.
Where I live the soul has been ripped out of the town, go for a drink to be greeted with nobody in the pubs / clubs.
7 years of this and no sign of it ending !
The country is a basket case.

wait until the One parent family allowance is cut this coming July, it will be come even quieter again.

more than 30,000 single parents will lose their One-Parent Family payments this July, the Department of Social Protection has said.

andrew · 23-02-2015 12:18PM

Eugene Norman wrote: »

.

Firstly we have vastly more debt than we used to have, meaning any shocks will destroy the country. We just can't afford another housing boom. But we are having one.

Fair enough that having more debt is bad, but there's not much evidence there's another housing boom going on. Prices are rising, but the other particularly destructive features of a boom - high LTV and LTI ratios, massive expansion of credit, constructioin constituting a massive percentage of GNP, people (especially 'neophytes') buying investment properties - aren't there.

Secondly the deals we made have kicked some cans down the road, because the interest payments are backloaded. So they will grow as a percentage of our tax revenue over time. Our kids won't thank us. We won't be giving too many tax breaks either. High income, personal, water and house taxes are here to stay.

Increasing the duration of Irish debt doesn't 'kick the can' down the road. It makes the debt more sustainable, because all that matters is that Irish GDP grow at a higher rate than the interest on our debt. So long as that's true then we're fine. By increasing the duration, you decrease the interest rate you're paying, even if by the end you've ultimately paid more in interest.

Thirdly we are unlikely to eat into the debt as we did in the 90's. Back then inflation and GDP growth were high enough to reduce the debt to GDP ratio every year. Despite the recent blip ( and we were in recession in 2013) we are not going to grow at 90's levels. If inflation takes off, then see point 4.

As I said, while high levels of debt are definitely bad, what particularly matters is that GDP/GNP growth is greater than the interest rate on our debt, which makes the siutation a bit less bad than it seems. (but obviously, the less debt the better).

Fourthly - interest rates are low. We are in the unusual position of hoping that we grow while the rest of Europe doesn't. If Europe starts to grow and interest rates climb to anything like normal levels, then the tracker mortgage holders will be another round of defaults when their 600K 2 bedroom in Ballsbridge serviceable now at 1% a year will not be servicable at 3% plus.

If ECB rates are at 3% again, it's because the European economy is doing well. At that point, those with tracker mortgages will, in general, be employed and have better job prospects. As such, they could possibly weather an increase in repayments. Even if they can't, as you've already noted, house prices are increasing. Their 600K house in Ballsbridge might end up being worth close to that again, in which case they can just sell it if the repayments are getting too onerous.

jimgoose · 23-02-2015 12:19PM

donegaLroad wrote: »

wait until the One parent family allowance is cut this coming July, it will be come even quieter again.

more than 30,000 single parents will lose their One-Parent Family payments this July, the Department of Social Protection has said.

Yes, I heard about that. Apparently the idea is to "encourage single parents off welfare and into work". Talk about 'avin' a fackin' girrawrfe! :pac::pac::pac:

KomradeBishop · 23-02-2015 12:20PM

We've got one of the highest emigration rates in Europe, are doing worse than most of the rest of Europe on unemployment rates and for job vacancies per unemployed person - but don't worry everybody, we've got 'the fastest growing economy' in Europe, so the crisis is over (who gives a toss about the emigrants or unemployed anyway?).

We're only at the start of an uphill battle, for getting our economy back to full employment - and when QE fails, and deflation returns, all of Europe (Ireland included) will become stagnant economically, and we'll see our current conditions become set-in-place (or worsen) permanently.

That's presuming the Euro doesn't come apart before then.

Adamantium · 23-02-2015 12:25PM

QE- Quantitative easing is in full force or inflating the money supply

A bright future to nowhere awaits!

arayess · 23-02-2015 12:26PM

the country is doing better overall and that's true.
however statistics hide that a large proportion of people arent doing well. Some people are doing well but a large amount are not.

The point of taking the baseline is important because we started the trend up whilest the country was in the ****ter. A drunk at closing time could have achieved growth from rock bottom which in itself was most definietly an exaggerated position.

Our health system is still fooked. Seriously ill kids are being refused a medical card still. Schools are hounding parents for money to keep them working. Some road are in ****e order. Revenue on drives to tax the money parents may gift their kids for a deposit on a house.

We are paying a huge amount of income tax - 52% on anything over 33,800 and a myriad of stealth taxes to fund non-existant services.
Taxes paid into a bottomless pit of debt ran up my a tiny few but lumped onto the back of average working people. Working people who cannot afford to live a normal fulfilling life.
This is what ****ed up is.

Spare me this crap that the country is doing fine.

The Backwards Man · 23-02-2015 12:28PM

I'm convinced that I'm the sexiest man alive, but, like the OP, the opposite is actually the reality.

Here's hoping we don't piss it away this time.

First Up · 23-02-2015 12:29PM

The_Captain wrote: »

When did I say things are getting better? I don't think things are getting better. You're the one saying that even though I'm the one in the more stable position.
As I said, I was lucky to get a job, even though people just as educated and qualified as me have been searching just as long or longer.

When people can't find work, can't afford houses, are and struggling to pay rents and mortgages, it's a joke to say things are getting better.

You sid yourself, you're nearly ten years out of college with a masters degree and you can't afford a house or to have kids? Tell me where that's better than the situation in 2009

There will always be people who can't find work, can't afford houses and who are struggling to pay rents and mortgages. There will also be people who can.

Nonoperational · 23-02-2015 12:30PM

I always find these threads amusing. Full of anecdotal evidence from people that are too ordinary to get up and do anything useful only moan and complain. Their solution is to push a left wing government so they can be given hand outs of the successful peoples' money and continue to lie about and moan and whinge.

ancapailldorcha · 23-02-2015 12:32PM

crazygeryy wrote: »

Alright lads get the **** out of this town, your completely pointless.go on dont be looking at me like that, get out!

What's your point. I have a degree in Microbiology from an Irish University subsidised by the Irish taxpayer. Would it be preferable to you if I moved home to Donegal and claimed the dole?

KomradeBishop · 23-02-2015 12:38PM

Adamantium wrote: »

QE- Quantitative easing is in full force or inflating the money supply

A bright future to nowhere awaits!

Inflating the money supply to banks - banks which can't lend much more to the actual private economy, because there is already too much private debt (so not enough people want to take on more debt) - meaning the primary inflation we'll see from QE, is in asset prices; and who has a disproportionate share of asset holdings? The wealthy and finance sector.

QE is effectively a subsidy to the wealthy and to finance, which is only going to cause a blip in the inflation figures, before we return to deflation and economic stagnation.

El_Duderino 09 · 23-02-2015 12:48PM

The_Captain wrote: »

When did I say things are getting better? I don't think things are getting better. You're the one saying that even though I'm the one in the more stable position.
As I said, I was lucky to get a job, even though people just as educated and qualified as me have been searching just as long or longer.

When people can't find work, can't afford houses, are and struggling to pay rents and mortgages, it's a joke to say things are getting better.

You sid yourself, you're nearly ten years out of college with a masters degree and you can't afford a house or to have kids? Tell me where that's better than the situation in 2009

Were talking at cross purposes here. When you say 2009 do you mean the height of the boom or the depths of the recession?

I never said we are better than 2009. In fact I went even went to great pains to explain that people never realised how dire the situation was. So while things are improving they are nowhere near the height of the boom. Jobs are on the increase, Import/Export ration is getting better, the social welfare bill is decreasing (aided by emigration), the budget deficit is nearly closed (meaning austerity measures are unlikely to increase + talk of tax curs in the pre-election budget).

With all that in mind it's a joke to say things are not improving (Cos of all the improvements and stuff).

Are you a public sector employee by any chance? Embittered by not getting your annual pay rise by dint of sitting in the same chair for another trip round the sun?

RecordStraight · 23-02-2015 12:49PM

KomradeBishop wrote: »

We've got one of the highest emigration rates in Europe

Phoebas wrote: »

Inward migration is up.

Emigration is down.

Overall population growth is up.

http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/pme/populationandmigrationestimatesapril2014/#.VOsUk_msXas

Of course, this also doesn't factor in the trend for young Irish people to spend a few years in Aus or Canada or Lonon or whatever before coming home.

I am convinced that Ireland is in Serious trouble

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