Milk Price- Please read Mod note in post #1

Greengrass1 · 19-02-2015 11:51AM

freedominacup wrote: »

Calm down legs. Just a small logistical change. If you've signed up for electronic payment the only difference is your statement will be arriving a few days later from here on. If you haven't signed up your cheque will now arrive with the later statement. Looks like the payments dept has finally been swamped.

I wonder how this sits with the commitment given all those years ago around the time of the avonmore/waterford merger that the cheques would always be in by the sixteenth. Afair that was a written commitment

Basicly anyone that has switched to electronic payment still won't actually have useable funds until 20th as per usual.
But Glanbia still get to keep funds in there acc for 3 more days

keep going · 19-02-2015 11:53AM

Just to temper the optimism the Chinese are not back on market in any big way yet so everything is on a knife edge

freedominacup · 19-02-2015 12:02PM

keep going wrote: »

Just to temper the optimism the Chinese are not back on market in any big way yet so everything is on a knife edge

I don't think we want them back in a big way tbh. We want to be a a good dependable supplier to a good dependable customer with long term contracts which are fair to both sides. 9 months of sky high prices following by 9 months planking it about how bad it's going to get followed by 9 months of crap prices is not a great business model esp when you're trying to pay the tax for the good year in the middle of a trough. I'd love to see the Chinese buying what they need as they need it, everyone is better off in that scenario.

Dawggone · 19-02-2015 02:02PM

freedominacup wrote: »

18% interest rates means the repayments on a 10 year term loan taken out at 8/9% rates double all in the name ( at the time) of political hubris. If you had experienced it you wouldn't be as flippant about it.

8/9% would have done a lot to cool things ten years ago, stricter lending controls on house mortgages would have done the same. Making residential property tax apply to all residential property incl zoned land would now help concentrate developers minds on developing not attempting to control the market. Lots of options before you'd consider rates like that.

In the 20 odd years we had the punt there were at least two if not three extended periods with interest rates as high as this. If you're sitting on piles of cash it's probably great fun but if you're trying to build a business it can cost you everything whether it's caused by political mistakes or the whim of some egomanical scumbag playing with other people's money. The euro is our best protection against it. Does anyone really think Nebraska and California are always in sync on interest/exchange requirements. I doubt that they are but Nebraska benefits from the stability of the dollar and California benefits from the drag places like Nebraska are on the dollar value much the way Germany benefits from the drag of the piigs on the euro. If you think '08 to now has been bad it would have been infinitely worse without the euro imo.

+1.

leg wax · 19-02-2015 03:40PM

freedominacup wrote: »

Calm down legs. Just a small logistical change. If you've signed up for electronic payment the only difference is your statement will be arriving a few days later from here on. If you haven't signed up your cheque will now arrive with the later statement. Looks like the payments dept has finally been swamped.

I wonder how this sits with the commitment given all those years ago around the time of the avonmore/waterford merger that the cheques would always be in by the sixteenth. Afair that was a written commitment

legs is calm and silky smooth

Deepsouthwest · 19-02-2015 03:42PM

leg wax wrote: »

legs is calm and silky smooth

Classic reply!

freedominacup · 19-02-2015 03:47PM

Deepsouthwest wrote: »

Classic reply!

I know there's a story behind the name I just can't remember the details. Way back in the day though. I reckon mrs freedom might have the details.

Henwin · 19-02-2015 10:43PM

what are peoples opinions on forward contracts. are they worth signing. we got a letter from kerry co op offering 34 cent a litre for 10-20% of your milk. We are considering signing them but are looking for peoples opinions on the matter

KCTK · 20-02-2015 12:24AM

Henwin wrote: »

what are peoples opinions on forward contracts. are they worth signing. we got a letter from kerry co op offering 34 cent a litre for 10-20% of your milk. We are considering signing them but are looking for peoples opinions on the matter

Don't forget the offer of 34 cent is for higher solids than normal milk pricing and no bonuses etc will be paid on the percentage you fix. I think I'm going to take my chances and not fix on this offer.

dalalada · 20-02-2015 12:28AM

KCTK wrote: »

Don't forget the offer of 34 cent is for higher solids than normal milk pricing and no bonuses etc will be paid on the percentage you fix. I think I'm going to take my chances and not fix on this offer.

Can you expand and explain your view a bit more?

KCTK · 20-02-2015 12:44AM

dalalada wrote: »

Can you expand and explain your view a bit more?

Contract states 34cpl inclusive of vat at 3.357 p and 3.84bf, this price includes all bonuses. Normal milk price is set at 3.3 p and 3.6 bf, add to this bonus if your scc under 200k plus any payments to bring price to "leading milk price" for the year so in reality what are they offering as fixed price on a like for like basis?

Then personally I am willing to gamble the average price of milk over the next 3 years will be more than this offer when striped back on a like for like basis, could be wrong....

atlantic mist · 20-02-2015 01:07AM

is it 34 cents straight no linking to anything else cso etc
is it one or three yr contract

Buford T. Justice XIX · 20-02-2015 05:09AM

atlantic mist wrote: »

is it 34 cents straight no linking to anything else cso etc
is it one or three yr contract

3 year contract, fixed at 34c for 3 years.

red bull · 20-02-2015 06:56AM

Buford T. Justice V wrote: »

3 year contract, fixed at 34c for 3 years.

For 10% of your supply only ?

Buford T. Justice XIX · 20-02-2015 08:54AM

red bull wrote: »

For 10% of your supply only ?

2 options, under 10% and between 10 and 20%.

The amount you get fixed depends on the uptake. The less that look to join, the higher those that chose to join will have fixed.

The fixers will probably make money this year but will lose when the milk price rises above 33c at 3.6/3.3.

I will be avoiding it, I'm thinking.

Heard a good one about 'leading price' last night. If you hold the paper upside down, the Kerry price will be near the top:)

just do it · 20-02-2015 02:51PM

KCTK wrote: »

Contract states 34cpl inclusive of vat at 3.357 p and 3.84bf, this price includes all bonuses. Normal milk price is set at 3.3 p and 3.6 bf, add to this bonus if your scc under 200k plus any payments to bring price to "leading milk price" for the year so in reality what are they offering as fixed price on a like for like basis?

Then personally I am willing to gamble the average price of milk over the next 3 years will be more than this offer when striped back on a like for like basis, could be wrong....

Agree completely. Co-op will have it well worked out.

kowtow · 20-02-2015 03:44PM

just do it wrote: »

Agree completely. Co-op will have it well worked out.

See my comments earlier on this thread (I think) about the need for a genuine hedge to be (1) related to a specific quantity of milk sold and (2) transparent.

This doesnt seem to be either?

Milked out · 20-02-2015 04:28PM

34.2c/l @ 3.35p and 4.1 bf.
Base of 30c

Buford T. Justice XIX · 20-02-2015 04:30PM

KCTK wrote: »

Contract states 34cpl inclusive of vat at 3.357 p and 3.84bf, this price includes all bonuses. Normal milk price is set at 3.3 p and 3.6 bf, add to this bonus if your scc under 200k plus any payments to bring price to "leading milk price" for the year so in reality what are they offering as fixed price on a like for like basis?

Then personally I am willing to gamble the average price of milk over the next 3 years will be more than this offer when striped back on a like for like basis, could be wrong....

Just saw in the Journal that the contract value is 32.8c @ 3.6/3.3.

Also the closing date is being extended to 3rd March.

arctic8dave · 20-02-2015 07:58PM

Jan price 33.54c/l 4:51% 3:36%
Base 30c/l

whelan2 · 20-02-2015 08:05PM

net milk value 40.93 cpl 3.46 pr 4.37 fat

C0N0R · 20-02-2015 08:06PM

whelan2 wrote: »

net milk value 40.93 cpl 3.46 pr 4.37 fat

Nice!

whelan2 · 20-02-2015 08:09PM

C0N0R wrote: »

Nice!

yup, happy out

KCTK · 20-02-2015 08:21PM

Buford T. Justice V wrote: »

Just saw in the Journal that the contract value is 32.8c @ 3.6/3.3.

Also the closing date is being extended to 3rd March.

Heard it will be well under subscribed so any one who does sign up will be given option to fix up to 50% after it eventually closes, also I've heard rumours that the scc bonus may increase from 0.2 cent per ltr in the not too distant future

Buford T. Justice XIX · 20-02-2015 09:54PM

KCTK wrote: »

Heard it will be well under subscribed so any one who does sign up will be given option to fix up to 50% after it eventually closes, also I've heard rumours that the scc bonus may increase from 0.2 cent per ltr in the not too distant future

I'm not surprised it's undersubscribed:D. There is little attraction to join after this years c.30c.

The scc bonus increase was flagged a while, they're just preempting the drop to 200 by a few years.

farmer lad · 21-02-2015 12:01AM

if ye don't mind me asking milked out and arctic8dave how did milked out get a better price than arctic8dave as arctic8dave solids are better and ye both had the same base price?

Milked out · 21-02-2015 12:21AM

farmer lad wrote: »

if ye don't mind me asking milked out and arctic8dave how did milked out get a better price than arctic8dave as arctic8dave solids are better and ye both had the same base price?

I should have said the price I put up was the price incl vat before levies were deducted, dad was telling me the statement came over the phone and that's what he told me the price was. Arctic's price may have been net after levies?
Other than that dg operate a scorecard with a score of 55 being the top I think u may get 0.4c/l for that, we were at 50 for the month

Timmaay · 21-02-2015 12:27AM

whelan2 wrote: »

net milk value 40.93 cpl 3.46 pr 4.37 fat

Despite trying to keep Jan volumes low with less autumn calvers I still oversupplied by 80% of my liquid quote, and as a result only got at net price of 34c/l. Alot of late spring milkers ticking over in that group so wasn't too costly, but would have been nearer 38c if I stuck too the liquid quota, that could well be the difference between profit and a loss on them litres.

Milked out · 21-02-2015 12:36AM

Timmaay wrote: »

Despite trying to keep Jan volumes low with less autumn calvers I still oversupplied by 80% of my liquid quote, and as a result only got at net price of 34c/l. Alot of late spring milkers ticking over in that group so wasn't too costly, but would have been nearer 38c if I stuck too the liquid quota, that could well be the difference between profit and a loss on them litres.

Or it could be a lower profit per litre over more litres. If you do the sums on both figures and the costs associated with them it would shine a bit more light on it. Says the fella that will prob end up throwing everything in to a box and off to the accountant at the end if the month ha. Seriously tho I'm at a cross roads myself with winter milk so will have to sit down during the summer when the head would be clearer and see what the best way is to go financially first and then consider work life balance with it once that's done

Timmaay · 21-02-2015 12:46AM

Milked out wrote: »

Or it could be a lower profit per litre over more litres. If you do the sums on both figures and the costs associated with them it would shine a bit more light on it. Says the fella that will prob end up throwing everything in to a box and off to the accountant at the end if the month ha. Seriously tho I'm at a cross roads myself with winter milk so will have to sit down during the summer when the head would be clearer and see what the best way is to go financially first and then consider work life balance with it once that's done

With the late spring calvers it makes sense, they need to be fed anyways so might as well be putting a few quid in the tank anyways over the winter. Autumn calving is what I don't like, waaayyy too much effort with autumn calving, more groups, feeding them a special diet, two calving seasons/breeding seasons etc etc. I obviously had too many autumn calvers this year considering how much I oversupplied the Jan liquid, it's more a fertility problem with us, had 8 carryover heifers from the spring.

Milk Price- Please read Mod note in post #1

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